Pistons vs. Cavaliers, 4.26.09, Round 1, Game 4

Matchup: Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Series: 3-0, Cleveland
Spread: Cavaliers -8.5

All season long, Sundays have doomed the Pistons. The team went a dreadful 4-12 on the first day of the week. Sundays featured embarrassing losses to teams such as Memphis, Minnesota, and New York. It is only fitting that this season will likely on the day that saw so much misery.

Detroit has looked helpless the first three games of this series. Cleveland has dominated in every aspect of the game and there is little reason to believe things will be different today. Barring an injury to King James, the Cavaliers should complete the sweep today.

My Pick: Cavaliers by 13

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 78, Cleveland 99
Notes:

• Say goodbye to an era. It was great while it lasted.
• Joe Dumars has a massive rebuilding project ahead of him. For the next several months, this blog will be dedicated to covering just that.

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Pistons vs. Cavaliers, 4.24.09, Round 1, Game 3

Matchup: Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Series: 2-0, Cleveland
Spread: Cavaliers -5

After suffering a second embarrassing loss to the Cavaliers, the Pistons had two days to regroup between games. Every prominent player on the roster sounded dejected after game two, so hopefully the team has used the time off to stop whimpering and start developing a plan of attack.

Unfortunately, the Pistons’ problems are much deeper than an inferiority complex. They have no answer for LeBron James and no ability to overcome their offensive shortcomings on the other end. Michael Curry will probably look for a spark from his bench early and often, but the talent disparity between Cleveland’s starters and Detroit’s backups will render that plan ineffective.

If the Pistons are going to a steal a game in this series, tonight will be their best chance. In all likelihood, the Pistons are not all that eager to make another trip to Cleveland and are thus resigned to a sweep.

My Pick: Cavaliers by 12

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 68, Cleveland 79
Notes:

• There isn’t much left to say. The Cavaliers are more talented, better-coached, and hungrier than the Pistons. Also, they have the best player on the planet playing at an insanely high level.
• In many ways this series is an opportunity for Joe Dumars to determine which players deserve to be part of the future in Detroit. If that is indeed the case, Rodney Stuckey appears to be the only starter worth keeping around. RIP Hamilton has enough talent to be a part of the core, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 for a team that probably is a few years away from returning to prominence.
  

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Pistons at Cavaliers, 4.21.09, Round 1, Game 2

I will be participating in a Live Blog (link) on PistonPowered.com during the game. Piston Powered is a Detroit Piston's blog that is a part of the ESPN.com TrueHoop blog network. During the Live Blog, I will discuss the game, the state of the team, and will be available to answer questions. Thanks to Dan Feldman of Piston Powered for helping set this up.

Matchup: Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Series: 1-0, Cleveland
Spread: Cavaliers -11.5

The Pistons will attempt to even the series after suffering a beat down in game one. Detroit’s offense had some success in game one, but the defense was brutal. The team has likely paid quite a bit of attention to shoring up its defense during the two days between games. Hopefully, the concentration on defense will not lead to a drop-off in Detroit’s offensive production.

While the Cavaliers are heavily favored once again, recent history may be on Detroit’s side. The Pistons are a remarkable 9-0 in the second game of a playoff series over the last three years. Flip Saunders took plenty of heat for his inability to get to the team to the finals, but he deserves praise for that 9-0 record. In the first game of a playoff series, teams employ their series strategies and feel out their opponents. It is in that second game that coaches have a chance to break down their opponents and make adjustments to their schemes. The fact that Saunders had a perfect record in such games while in Detroit reflects well on his ability to make in-series adjustments.

For the Pistons’ game-two winning streak to reach 10, the defense must find a way to turn LeBron James into a volume scorer. The Pistons can live with him scoring 38 points again, so long as it takes him upwards of 30 shots to do so. If James is again able to score nearly two points per shot attempt, the Pistons are doomed.

As Magic Johnson explained during the 1991 finals, the margin of victory is meaningless. If the Pistons can eke out a win tonight, the series will be tied in spite of Cleveland’s dominating performance in game one. As much as I’d like to see that happen, I can’t imagine this Piston team beating LeBron James on his home floor.

My Pick: Cavaliers by 14

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 82, Cleveland 94
Notes:

• LeBron James is playing basketball at a higher level than any perimeter player this millennium.
• If this Cavalier team has a weakness, I can’t spot it. Their bench is a little thin, but they have enough quality players to fill out a playoff rotation. Aside from that, this team does everything well.
• The difference between the current Pistons and the contenders from the past several years starts with the interior defense. Ben Wallace is gone and the remaining players – Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess, and Tayshaun Prince – look older and slower by the day.
• Will Bynum, Arron Afflalo, and Amir Johnson led a 20-2 fourth quarter run. When the Pistons finally pulled within single digits, Amir Johnson was pulled and Cleveland immediately regained control.
• Delonte West and Mo Williams were the primary beneficiaries of all of the defensive attention LeBron drew.

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Pistons at Cavaliers, 4.18.09, Round 1, Game 1

Matchup: Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Series: 0-0
Spread: Cavaliers -12
My Pick: Cavaliers by 11

The Pistons open the playoffs in Cleveland. Cleveland is heavily favored for good reason. Excluding the meaningless final game of the season, the Cavaliers went 39-1 at home this season. For what it’s worth, the Pistons beat the Cavs once during the regular season and kept two other games close. The Pistons best hope of keeping this afternoon’s game close is if the Cavaliers perimeter shooters play erratically under the pressure of the top seed. Don’t count on it.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 84, Cleveland 102
Notes:

• I’ve seen teams play worse defense than Detroit played yesterday -- for instance, I watched the Knicks play this game -- but I can’t remember ever seeing playoff defense as porous as what the Pistons displayed yesterday.
• King James scored 38 points on 20 shots, committed zero turnovers, and added eight rebounds and seven assists. LeBron scored 25 straight Cavalier points to decimate the Pistons’ championship aspirations two seasons ago. Since then, he’s improved mightily. At this point, any NBA analyst who calls Kobe Bryant “the best player in basketball” is an analyst I can’t take seriously.
• Antonio McDyess and Tayshaun Prince, among others, looked a step slow defensively.
• Rodney Stuckey was aggressive, but he needs to do a better job trying to finish plays instead of hoping for a whistle.
• Kwame Brown and Arron Afflalo both had nice games off the bench.
• Detroit did a nice job of taking care of the basketball, thus limiting LeBron’s opportunities in the open court. Unfortunately for the Pistons, Cleveland did an even better job avoiding turnovers.

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Pistons at Heat, 4.15.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (39-42) at Miami Heat (42-39)
Spread: Heat -2
My Pick: Pistons by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. The Heat Don’t Care. They are locked into the fifth seed. The Heat is already focused on the Hawks.
2. No D-Wade. Wade, Udonis Haslem, and Jermaine O’Neal sat out last night are not expected to play tonight. As Peninsula Is Mightier noted, this is “meaningless game number 2” for Miami.
3. Strong Depth. The Pistons won’t be playing their regulars, but Walter Sharpe is the only Piston incapable of holding his own in an NBA rotation. The Pistons will be fine playing Will Bynum, Arron Afflalo, Walter Herrmann, Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson, and Kwame Brown heavy minutes.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. The Pistons Don’t Care. The team is locked into the eighth seed. This game will be little more than a glorified scrimmage.
2. No Sheed. The Iverson-free Pistons play their best with Rasheed in the lineup. Sheed will be joined by RIP and Antonio McDyess on the inactive list as they rest for the playoffs. (Update: In contrast with early reports, Sheed started the game.)
3. Michael Beasley. The dynamic young forward could go off for the Heat. Neither Watler Herrmann nor Jason Maxiell is up to the task of defending him, although Amir Johnson might have a chance.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 96, Miami 102 (OT)
Notes:

• Michael Curry did not take this game for granted. He played his top-five bench players most of the game in hopes that the experience will pay off in the playoffs.
• The Pistons outplayed the Heat in the second quarter, but were outscored when Miami hit several contested three pointers, plus a difficult 22-foot jumper by Chris Quinn. Only five of Miami’s 22 points in the quarter were scored within 20 feet of the basket.
• Michael Beasley combines a high release point with an extremely accurate jump shot. He’s flown under the radar a bit this season, but he and Wade could form an awesome one-two punch for several seasons to come.
• Chris Quinn and Michael Beasley both hit several difficult shots. Those shots proved to be the difference in the game.
• Jason Maxiell and Kwame Brown had nice games. Both were very active in the paint.
• I don’t want to beat a dead horse so I’m not going to mention that Amir Johnson was a menace disrupting the entire Heat offense whenever he was on the floor.

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Pistons vs. Bulls, 4.13.09

I will be participating in a Live Blog (link) on PistonPowered.com during the game. Piston Powered is a Detroit Piston's blog that is a part of the ESPN.com TrueHoop blog network. During the Live Blog, I will discuss the game, the state of the team, and will be available to answer questions. Thanks to Dan Feldman of Piston Powered for helping set this up.

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (39-41) vs. Chicago Bulls (40-40)
Spread: Pistons -4
My Pick: Pistons by 5

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. No More Noc. The Pistons had to be thrilled to see Andres Nocioni sent to the Western Conference. Nocioni. Nocioni averaged 17.3 points with a ridiculous 67.9% effective field goal percentage in his last nine games against Detroit.
2. Return to Health. RIP Hamilton and Rasheed Wallace did not play when the Pistons fell to the Bulls in March. With those two back, Detroit should play much better tonight.
3. Homecourt Edge. The home team has won the first three meetings of the season between these teams. As hot as the Bulls have been, they team has had most of its success at home. The Bulls have dropped nine of their last 11 road games, with the only wins coming against doormats Oklahoma City and Washington.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Midseason Acquisitions. Brad Miller and John Salmons, who allegedly was Joe Dumars’ backup plan in the 2002 draft had Tayshaun Prince not been available, have led the Bulls to an 11-3 record in their last 14 games. The two players acquired from Sacramento have been the Bulls’ best players during that stretch.
2. Ben Gordon. The notoriously streaky shooter is locked in right now. He has averaged 24.6 points in his last 7 games as he auditions for a new contract. He is 11-20 from behind the long line in the last two games.
3. Tyrus Thomas. Chicago’s developing young forward saves his best for games against Detroit. The Bulls have beaten Detroit twice this year because Thomas has averaged 20 points and 11 rebounds in those games.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 88, Chicago 91
Notes:

• The Pistons led most of the second half, but the offense went cold down the stretch. The Pistons scored just three points in the final 5:57.
• A first round date with Cleveland is assured, as is the 15th pick in 2009 draft.
• Once again, Amir Johnson received a healthy DNP.
• Derrick Rose put an exclamation point on a season which will earn him Rookie of the Year honors.
• The Pistons failed to match the overall quickness the Bulls possess.
• Detroit’s bench was very quiet in the loss.
• Ben Gordon is a poor defender, but his jump shot is flawless. Few shoot better than Gordon off the dribble.
• Rodney Stuckey had a nice game, but the shot he had blocked in the final minute was a shot he should never have taken. Either Michael Curry diagrammed a terrible play or Stuckey made a very costly decision.

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Pistons at Pacers, 4.11.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (39-40) at Indiana Pacers (34-45)
Spread: Pacers -3
My Pick: Pistons by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Streaking. The Pistons have won three in a row. With Iverson sent home, the Pistons appear to be hitting their stride just in time for the playoffs.
2. Stability. Michael Curry announced that his recent rotation will be his permanent rotation. While I wish Amir Johnson was a part of that rotation, the clearly defined roles will benefit the players.
3. Rodney Stuckey. In the two games Stuckey started against Indiana, he averaged 25.5 points, 7 assists, 6.5 rebounds, and 2 steals. He also posted a ridiculous 80.4% effective field goal percentage in those games (50% is roughly average).

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Offensive Firepower. The Pacers have scored at least 117 points in all four of their April games. The Pistons need to dictate the tempo and slow the game down in order to push Indiana out of its comfort zone.
2. Danny Granger. The fourth year forward can score with the best of them. He missed time with a foot injury, but he is averaging 29 points per game since returning to the starting lineup 11 games ago. He has lit up the Pistons for 33 per contest this season, although that is partially a result of Michael Curry’s decision to use a small ball lineup earlier in the season. With the small ball lineup, Granger was able to dominate the much small RIP Hamilton.
3. Finishing Strong. The Pistons may be finding their rhythm, but the same could be said of the Pacers. Indiana has won six of nine.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 102, Indiana 106
Notes:

• Jason Maxiell continues to outperform Amir Johnson on the stat sheet even though Johnson consistently outplays his counterpart for the simple reason that there is no stat for forcing the opposition to take a difficult shot. Maxiell was -14 while Johnson was +9, thus widening the already enormous gap between the players’ +/- numbers.
• The Pistons were hammered on the glass in the first half, when they allowed 14 offensive rebounds. In the second half, the Pistons committed to boxing out and limited Indiana to one offensive board.
• One night after doing a masterful defensive job on the Nets perimeter players, the Pacers got 81 points from their four perimeter players.
• The Pistons spent far too much of the game conforming to Indiana’s preferred helter-skelter pace.
• Roy Hibbert should be a quality rotation player for the next decade. He had six offensive rebounds and four blocks in just 20 minutes.

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Pistons vs. Nets, 4.10.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (38-40) at New Jersey Nets (32-46)
Spread: Pistons -8
My Pick: Pistons by 10

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Flat Finish. The Nets have lost 11 of their last 16. This team is counting down the days until it can add a forward in the lottery. The forward rotation of Ryan Anderson, Yi Jianlian, Trenton Hassell, Bobby Simmons, and Eduardo Najera is as bad as it gets in the NBA.
2. Road Trouble. The Nets have lost nine consecutive games played outside the tri-state area (they did win a road game in that stretch, but it was a short bus ride away against the Knicks). Also, the home team has won each of the first three games in the season series between the Pistons and Nets.
3. Contain Carter. Vince Carter has had success against the Pistons in the past, but much of that success occurred when Tayshaun Prince had to defend Richard Jefferson. With Jefferson gone, Prince has held Carter to just 11.3 points per game in their three matchups this season.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Devin Harris. Harris has torched the Pistons to the tune of 25.3 points and 7.3 assists per game this season. He has taken an absurd 43 free throws in those three games. Removing Iverson from the defensive equation should help matters, but Rodney Stuckey and to a lesser extent, Arron Afflalo have had their problems with Harris.
2. Momentum? Despite their recent struggles, the Nets played one of their best games of the season Wednesday in Boston. Playing against the defending champs, the Nets built a double digit lead early and had a chance to take the lead in the final seconds.
3. They Won’t. The Pistons are playing at home against an inferior team with playoff seeding at stake. It would be inexusable for the team to not win this game easily.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 100, New Jersey 93
Notes:

• The bench won this game for Detroit. Kwame Brown, Arron Afflalo, and Jason Maxiell all played very well. Will Bynum was outstanding.
• Bynum scored at least 20 points for the fifth time in 12 games. He is far more confident in his jump shot than he was earlier this year. As a result, he is consistently converting open looks that he typically passed up or missed earlier in the season.
• Even ignoring the off-court issues, is there any rational argument that Iverson is a better basketball player than Will Bynum? If the consensus is that Iverson is worth the mid-level exception, would that make Bynum worth 7-8 million on the open market? (My answer: No, Iverson doesn’t warrant the mid level exception, although Bynum would.)
• Despite the unremarkable final score, this game was an offensive showcase on both ends. Only a slow pace skewed the final numbers. The teams combined to make more than half of their shots, better than 40% of their threes, and committed just 15 turnovers.
• Rodney Stuckey has taken heat for his defense at various points this season, but he deserves his share of credit for holding All Star Devin Harris to one point.
• Rookies Ryan Anderson and Chris Douglas-Roberts played better than any other Nets last night. Anderson appears to provide everything the Nets hoped to receive from Yi Jianlian. CDR’s ability to get to the hoop and finish was positively Will Bynumesque.
  

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Pistons at Knicks, 4.08.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (37-40) at New York Knicks (30-48)
Spread: Pistons -3.5
My Pick: Pistons by 2

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. No Excuses. The Pistons had two days off, should have a fully healthy roster, and will face a bad basketball team. A loss tonight would be unacceptable.
2. Midlevel Starters. The Knicks handed Chris Duhon and Jared Jefferies contracts worth the midlevel exception. Both are capable backups who play sturdy defense but struggle to score. Unfortunatley for the Knicks, both are starting as the team rebuilds. (Edit: Apparently Jefferies lost his starting spot after failing to score in his last start.)
3. Giving Up. The Knicks have lost 11 of 13 and appear to have packed it in for the year. The good news for Michigan natives is that, partially as a result, two players with local ties may have a chance to score their first NBA points tonight. Former Wolverine Courtney Sims and Detroit Renaissance alum Joe Crawford should both be on the active roster tonight.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. RFAs. Once again, soon-to-be restricted free agents Nate Robinson and David Lee are easily the best players on this team. When the Knicks won at the Palace four weeks ago, Robinson torched the Pistons for 30 points while Lee chipped in 16 points and 18 rebounds.
2. Letdown Game. Sunday’s game against Charlotte was hugely important. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Pistons need to return to the brink of the lottery before they exert full effort again.
3. No Swagger. Rasheed Wallace says the Pistons’ “swagger will come with the playoffs.” (Freep Article) Apparently fans will have to suffer through five more games of swagger-less basketball

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 113, New York 86
Notes:

• There’s bad defense, there’s horrible defense, and then there’s what the Knicks played in the first half. The Pistons – who average roughly 23 points per quarter – scored 21 points in the first 5:44.
• Every Piston starter had at least eight points before halftime.
• The logic behind the “seven-seconds-or-less” offense is that teams should be able to find a high-percentage shot before a defense is fully set. The Knicks ignored the “high-percentage” part of the equation.
• The Knicks committed just five turnovers, but some of the shots they took were about as bad as turnovers.
• Wilson Chandler shot the ball nicely, but he was brutal defensively.
• Several Pistons played well, but RIP Hamilton and Antonio McDyess stood out. Rodney Stuckey, Rasheed Wallace, and Kwame Brown also had very nice games.
• The Pistons won the rebounding battle 57-33.

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Pistons vs. Bobcats, 4.05.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (36-40) vs. Charlotte Bobcats (34-42)
Spread: Pistons -2
My Pick: Pistons by 6

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Road Woes. The Bobcats have been much better at home than on the road this season. Even with their recent hot streak, the Bobcats have only won two of their past six road contests. On the other hand, the road team has won each of the first three meetings between these teams this season.
2. Boris Diaw. The Bobcat offense is usually only as efficient as its versatile forward. In his last five games against Detroit, Diaw has averaged a measly 6.2 points per game on 32.4% shoting. Over his career, he averages just 6 points per game against Detroit, but several of those games took place when Diaw was an Atlanta Hawk trying to find his footing in the league.
3. If It Ain’t Rough... In recent years, a favorite cliché among Piston plays has been “If it ain’t rough, it ain’t right.” The implication is that when it matters most and the Pistons backs are up against the wall, they play their best. That will be put to the test today, as the Pistons play their most important regular season game in a long, long time.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. 2009. Since the calendar flipped, the Pistons 17-29, while the Bobcats are seven games better, at 23-21. That says it all about how this season has gone for the Pistons.
2. Back to Back. The Pistons have dropped nine of the last ten games they have played on the second half of a back to back. The Bobcats had the day off yesterday and will arrive at today’s game with younger, fresher legs.
3. Rotation Stability. The Bobcats have one of the most clear-cut eight-man rotations in the NBA. Occasionally one or two additional players see spot minutes, but the same eight players see the bulk of the minutes every game. In contrast, the Piston rotation has been in constant flux all season. (Depending on Raja Bell's calf, Cartier Martin could crack the rotation for the time being. Still, under Larry Brown, each player's role on this team is more clearly defined than is the case with any other team in the league.)

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 104, Charlotte 97
Notes:

• Will Bynum! Bynum almost singlehandedly secured a Piston victory in the most important game of the regular season. He scored a franchise record 26 points in the fourth quarter and he needed just six field goal attempts to do so. The man who could not find a place in the NBA a season ago now leads the Pistons in PER by a wide margin.
• Two Piston guards carried this team to victory. Those Piston guards were not Rodney Stuckey, RIP Hamilton, or Allen Iverson, but rather Bynum and Arron Afflalo. Afflalo’s inconsistent jumper was dead-on last night and his defense keyed a 15-3 fourth quarter run.
• The downside to losing Hamilton to an ejection was that with Bynum and Afflalo on the court, the Bobcats were able to play their two best guards – D. J. Augustin and Ray Felton – together. Neither is capable of guarding Hamilton, but with Hamilton out, Charlotte was able to play its five best players down the stretch. RIP’s inability to maintain his composure was unacceptable given the importance of the game.
• Rasheed played well and showed no ill effects of playing 37 minutes. He should be fully healthy just in time for the playoffs.

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Pistons at 76ers, 4.04.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (36-39) at Philadelphia 76ers (39-35)
Spread: 76ers -3
My Pick: Pistons by 8

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. No AI. The Pistons are 9-1 in games where Rasheed plays, but Iverson does not. That recipe should be in play the rest of the season.
2. Rest. Antonio McDyess and Tayshaun Prince, among others, badly needed the two-day break the Pistons just received.
3. No Thaddeus Young. The über-athletic forward is on the shelf with an ankle injury. Without Young or Elton Brand, the Pistons have a clearly superior active roster.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Rough Stretch. The Pistons have lost eight of their last 11, so they don’t exactly have much momentum.
2. Wachovia Center. The 76ers have won five of their last six home games. The Pistons wish Philly had won the sixth – a game against Charlotte.
3. Distractions. If the Piston players have too spent too much time worrying about Iverson and too little time worrying about this matchup, they could struggle.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 90, Philadelphia 95
Notes:

• In a role reversal from last year’s playoffs, Andre Iguodala dominated Tayshaun Prince. Iguodala scored 31 points on 19 shots, many of which were dunks.
• The Piston offense went through Kwame Brown in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter, they would have benefitted from an offensive force as consistent as Brown was early. That says more about the Pistons than it does about Brown, although Kwame did play very nicely.
• Will Bynum was awesome in the first half, but invisible in the second.
• Andre Miller went wherever he wanted with the ball.
• The 76ers, without Elton Brand and without Thaddeus Young, badly lack reliable offensive options. The fact that they made 48 percent of their field goals in the game underscores how bad Detroit’s defense – especially in transition – was in this game.
• If there’s a good reason Amir Johnson did not play, I’d like to hear it. His DNP is big part of the explanation for the previous bullet point.

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Pistons at Nets, 4.01.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (36-38) at New Jersey Nets (30-44)
Spread: PK
My Pick: Pistons by 8

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Free Amir. With Rasheed Wallace out, Amir should get a chance to contribute against New Jersey. New Jersey lacks a power forward who can make Amir pay for any mistakes, so Johnson should see heavy minutes tonight.
2. Tayshaun Prince. With Richard Jefferson gone, New Jersey’s small forward situation has been a disaster. Prince has averaged 17.5 points and 9 rebounds per game in the first two meetings of the season between these teams.
3. Kwame Brown. The Nets only have three players who score. Kwame should be able to take Brook Lopez out of the picture. If Tayshaun can do the same to Vince Carter, the Nets entire offense will have to revolve around Devin Harris.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Could Curry Cave? When RIP Hamilton complained about a bench role earlier this year, Curry made him a starter (and rightfully so). Now that Iverson has complained about his role, there is a possibility Curry will again succumb to his stars. If Iverson’s role increases, the Pistons’ chance at a victory will take a major hit.
2. Sheed’s Out. Rasheed is suspended for tonight’s game because he picked up his 16th technical foul last night. While Amir Johnson should pick some of the slack, he cannot abuse Ryan Anderson and Yi Jianlian on the block the way Sheed could have.
3. Devin Harris. Harris dropped 38 points on Detroit earlier this season. The Pistons need to prevent that from happening tonight.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 98, New Jersey 111
Notes:

• The Piston defense was pathetic. The Nets have some nice pieces – three to be exact – but they have no business scoring 111 points in a slow game. Keyon Dooling and Brook Lopez, among others, torched the Pistons.
• Allen Iverson was unspeakably awful. He then had the audacity to complain about his role after the game.
• The heavy minutes Antonio McDyess has been playing have finally caught up to him. He is averaging 5.3 points and 7.7 rebounds over his last three games. With all of the talk about benching Rasheed, maybe it is Dice who is better-suited for a bench role that could limit his minutes.
• At the risk of beating the metaphorical dead horse, I’ll point out that Amir Johnson watched several potential offensive rebounds bounce off of his fingertips, was a non-factor offensively, and nevertheless, Detroit outscored New Jersey by 6 the 25 minutes Johnson was on the court, but was outscored by 17 the other 23 minutes. He makes good things happen when he is on the floor, even if they sometimes aren’t obvious and don’t show up in the box score.

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Pistons at Cavaliers, 3.31.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (36-37) at Cleveland Cavaliers (60-13)
Spread: Cavs -10
My Pick: Cavs by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. All Hands on Deck? If Rasheed Wallace can play (he’s questionable) the Pistons will have both a healthy roster and a logical starting lineup for the first time since Chauncey Billups suited up in the red, white, and blue. (And yes, this means I am strongly opposed to this idea from Chris McCosky. More on that later.) Update: Sheed is back, but will come off the bench for now.
2. Small Guards. Both of the Pistons’ primary backcourt backups – Allen Iverson and Will Bynum – are shorter than six feet. Against most opponents, that would be a problem, but Cleveland’s top-three backcourt options are all 6-3 and under.
3. They’ve Done It. The Pistons beat Cleveland earlier this year in one of Allen Iverson’s best games of the seasons. They had a chance to do so a second time before Iverson chose not to play defense in the fourth quarter.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. King James. Cleveland has this LeBron guy who plays small forward and is really good at basketball. He happens to have the most absurd combination of size, quickness, skill, and athleticism that the NBA has ever seen. He might pose a problem for the Pistons.
2. Quicken Loans. The Cavs are 34-1 at home this season. That 97.1% winning percentage is as daunting as it gets.
3. Confused Curry. Michael Curry has done a much better job coaching when injuries force his hand. When he has had a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal, he has made some perplexing decisions.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 73, Cleveland 79
Notes:

• Is there anyone not excited to see the post-Iverson, post-Sheed Pistons? This team plays much harder without Sheed and much better without AI. The challenge will be using the cap space to replace their talent.
• Iverson whined to the media about the fact that he played 18 minutes. I agree that 18 minutes was a mistake; 12 – or maybe zero – would have been more appropriate.
• LeBron was the beneficiary of some "stupid-star calls," but Sheed gets his share of calls too. Sheed is bright enough to know that yelling at the refs does not accomplish anything productive. He deserves his suspension for tonight’s game.
• No Piston played more than 34 minutes. Normally I would applaud a coach for resting his regulars before the playoffs, but a playoff berth is far from secured.
• The Pistons executed a great game plan on LeBron for 43 minutes. Then LeBron showed why he is the best closer in basketball.
• Walter Herrmann was surprisingly competent the few possessions he defended LeBron.
• While my post-game gripes lie with AI and Sheed, the Pistons lost because the Cavaliers played awesome defense in the second half. Also, Stuckey, RIP, and McDyess failed to convert too many makeable shots.

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Pistons vs. 76ers, 3.29.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-37) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (37-34)
Spread: Pistons -3
My Pick: 76ers by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Prince on Iguodala. Prince harassed Iguodala into a disastrous playoff series last year. Iguodala finished with a 33% field goal percentage while trying to shoot over Prince.
2. Ready to RIP. RIP carried the Piston offense last night. If the 76ers leave Willie Green on him, he should be able to do the same tonight.
3. Threes. The 76ers are the league’s worst three-point shooting team. The team’s only threats from deep are Thaddeus Young, who does opponents a favor when he settles for threes, and the re-discovered Donyell Marshall, who is too slow to play defense.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Tired Dice. Dice has been playing heavy minutes since Rasheed went down. After playing 37 hard minutes last night, he may not have his legs against Philly.
2. Youngn’s. Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams are loaded with talent and athleticism. They have hurt the Pistons before and could do the same tonight.
3. Confidence. The 76ers played great against Detroit in last year’s playoffs. Since then, Philly has improved while Detroit has taken a step (or two) back.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 101, Philadelphia 97
Notes:

• The Piston starters made 17 of their first 21 field goal attempts. The Pistons trailed by 1 at the half despite 61% shooting.
• Allen Iverson returned and wasted no time in reminding everyone that he is enormously talented, yet does little to positively impact this team. He has an awesome handle and is lightning quick, but too often, his decision-making leads to broken plays and/or forced shots. He was only attributed with two turnovers, but his high-risk passes led to a far greater number of turnovers and near-turnovers.
• Amir Johnson botched several scoring opportunities, left Andre Iguodala too early while hedging on a pick allowing Iggy to drill a three, and failed to box out Thaddeus Young on a crucial play which resulted in an offensive rebound and dunk. Despite all of those problems, Johnson was as important as any Piston in the win. He kept several possessions alive by attacking the offensive glass and was worlds better than Jason Maxiell and Walter Herrmann defensively. Credit Michael Curry for entrusting Johnson with fourth quarter minutes. Johnson was +10 in 19 minutes off the bench.
• I expected Tayshaun Prince to neutralize Andre Iguodala with his defense, but instead, he did so on the other end. Prince scored 21 points on just 11 shots to outplay Iguodala, who needed eight more shots and three more free throws to score eight more points than Prince.
• PER stud Marreese Speights had one of his worst performances of the season.
• Rodney Stuckey had a strong all-around performance, but Will Bynum was rewarded with crunch-time point guard duties after he sparked a 14-2 run early in the fourth quarter.

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Pistons at Wizards, 3.28.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-37) at Washington Wizards (17-56)
Spread: Pistons -6
My Pick: Pistons by 8

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Return of RIP. Arron Afflalo played well in spurts, but the Piston offense badly missed Hamilton. He should be back in the lineup tonight.
2. Weak Opponent. The Pistons have been losing games, but each of their last five losses has been against a playoff team. The 17-56 Wizards might be the tonic the Pistons need.
3. PG Defense. Depending on who’s healthy, some combination of Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton, and Juan Dixon will play point guard for Washington. Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum could each have huge games.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. No Sheed. Kwame Brown plays hard and is a strong defender, but he doesn’t have the skill set to compensate for the absence of Wallace.
2. Slumping 'Stons. The Pistons have lost eight of their last 11 games. No game, even one against the lowly Wizards, can be considered a gimme.
3. Hibachi! Gilbert Arenas is expected to return tonight. If his shot is on, he’s explosive offensively.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 98, Washington 96
Notes:

• Kwame “Stone Hands” Brown almost cost the Pistons the game when he failed to secure a rebound on the final possession. Brown’s inability to catch passes and rebounds is easily his biggest weakness.
• Even when Amir Johnson fails to fill up the stat sheet with much more than fouls, good things happen when he’s in the game. The Pistons outscored Washington 20-16 with Johnson in the game which helped build upon his already impressive +/- numbers for the season.
• The Piston bench was awesome in the first half and terrible in the second.
• Jason Maxiell had a big game, highlighted by five offensive rebounds, two blocks, and two dunks.
• RIP returned to the lineup with a bang. The work he has put in on his three point shot has really paid off. During his first two seasons in Detroit, he made 50 threes while shooting under 27% in 160 games. Over the last four seasons, he has made more than 50 threes every year while converting 40% of his attempts. Last night, he nailed five triples on his way to 31 points.
• JaVale McGee is absurdly athletic.

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Pistons vs. Lakers, 3.26.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-36) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (56-14)
Spread: Lakers -8
My Pick: Lakers by 12

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Recent History. Including the Finals, the Pistons are 12-3 against the Lakers in their last 15 meetings.
2. Kwame Brown. Kwame did a great job defending Pau Gasol the first time these teams meet this season. He will need to repeat that performance for Detroit to have a chance.
3. Tayshaun Prince. Prince is as good as it gets defending Kobe Bryant. Prince has also had success offensively, averaging 21.1 points per game in his last nine games against the Lakers.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Better. The Lakers are a much better team than the Pistons.
2. Healthier. The Lakers are a much healthier team than the Pistons.
3. Hotter. The Lakers are a much hotter team than the Pistons. While the Pistons have lost seven games in the past 20 days, the Lakers have not lost seven games in the past two months.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 77, Los Angeles 92
Notes:

• Will Bynum was incredible. He gave the Pistons life by sparking a 26-5 second quarter run. In the second half, he continued to play well, but he had little help from his Piston teammates. Bynum finished with 25 points and 11 assists. Bynum now leads the Pistons with a 17.59 PER. That says as much about the Pistons as it does about Bynum.
• The offense of choice – give the ball to Tayshaun, get out of the way – was not a good one. The problem is that without RIP, AI, or Sheed, the Pistons lacked alternatives.
• The Pistons were outscored by 37 with Prince on the court.
• Kobe Bryant + Pau Gasol + Triangle Offense = Lots of open looks for every Laker. The Lakers did not shoot particularly well against Detroit, but that offense is unstoppable if their perimeter players are converting open shots.
• Jordan Farmar has taken a noticeable step back after an impressive sophomore campaign. Derek Fisher is a liability on defense. He couldn’t stay in front of Will Bynum. Quick guards like Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, and Deron Williams routinely abuse Fisher. Point guard play should be right next to interior defense (if Bynum is not at full strength) on the list of the Lakers’ biggest worries for the playoffs.
• With RIP and Sheed out and Prince and Stuckey struggling, the Piston offense was lacking punch, to put it mildly.
• On the first play of the second half, Antonio McDyess did his best to compensate for Rasheed Wallace’s absence. Dice was called for a foul on Lamar Odom which he disagreed with. After Odom missed the first free throw, Dice shouted “Ball Don’t Lie” twice.
• For those who prefer hearing Sheed’s protests and watching Piston wins, there is good news; Sheed and RIP are expected to return Saturday.

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Pistons at Bulls, 3.24.09

I will be participating in a Live Blog (link) on PistonPowered.com during the game. Piston Powered is a Detroit Piston's blog that is a part of the ESPN.com TrueHoop blog network. During the Live Blog, I will discuss the game, the state of the team, and will be available to answer questions. Thanks to Dan Feldman of Piston Powered for helping set this up.

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-35) at Chicago Bulls (33-38)
Spread: Bulls -5
My Pick: Bulls by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Tired Bulls. The Bulls played a close game in Washington last night. Only eight Bulls played and they had to fly home less than 24 hours ago. They should have tired legs tonight.
2. Mediocrity. The Bulls have a glut of players who can be considered above average, but absolutely no one who is great. John Salmons has been their best player lately. Ask the Kings how well that works out. (Note: Derrick Rose has the potential to be great, but he has a long way to go.)
3. Tyrus Thomas. Mr. Inconsistent tends to play great against the Pistons. If he has one of his periodic big games, he could hurt the Pistons.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Home Cooking. The home team has won the last four matchups between these two teams.
2. Come Back Sheed. Kwame Brown can't score. Jason Maxiell is too short to excel at power forward. Amir Johnson can't earn his coach's trust. Rasheed has none of those problems, but he does have an injured calf that should keep him out of the lineup.
3. Antonio McDyess. If the Pistons have been losing with the way McDyess has been playing, what will happen when he reverts to playing like a normal player? McDyess cannot keep up his recent tear forever, right?

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 91, Chicago 99
Notes:

• The Bulls understood the playoff implications and acted accordingly. Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, and John Salmons each played 46 minutes.
• Tyrus Thomas simultaneously showed why he has the talent to be great and why it's so frustrating that he rarely plays as well as he can. He was the best player on the floor all game.
• Will Bynum was awesome. Other Pistons played well, but this squad requires super-human efforts to overcome all of its injuries.
• If the Bulls had any chance to win a playoff series (they don't), there would be a ton of logic behind starting Hinrich ahead of Derrick Rose.

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Pistons vs. Heat, 3.22.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-34) vs. Miami Heat (36-32)
Spread: Pistons -2
My Pick: Pistons by 6

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Win:

1. Road Trouble. The Heat will be playing the final game of a road trip that has started 0-3. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games.
2. Said Who? In ESPN’s Daily Dime, Mark Jackson states: “I think the Heat are clearly closer to competing for a championship, and if you asked both Dumars and Riley, they would have to agree with me.” I think he is clearly wrong, especially regarding Joe Dumars' opinion. Miami wasted its potential cap space on Jermaine O’Neal, is looking at a draft pick in the late teens, and has no one outside of Wade and Michael Beasley with the talent to be above average NBA starter. Other than that, Championship here they come!
3. Board War. Miami is last among probably playoff teams in rebound rate. Detroit has been awesome on the glass during the last several games. That trend should continue today.

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Lose:

1. Sunday. The Pistons are an embarrassing 2-11 on Sundays.
2. Wear and Tear. Eventually, the heavy minutes Tayshaun Prince and Antonio McDyess have been playing will affect their play.
3. Dwyane Wade. Wade is dealing with an injured hip, but if he can play, he can dominate. Wade has played the best basketball of anyone not named LeBron this season.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 96, Miami 101
Notes:

• This was one the most exciting, well-played games Detroit has been involved in all season.
• In a vacuum, Dwyane Wade is awesome. Compared to other NBA shooting guards, Wade is easily the best. Kobe Bryant wishes he had Wade’s athleticism.
• Jamario Moon treats the hardwood like a trampoline.
• Proof steals are a terrible measure of defense: Mario Chalmers tallies four times as many steals per minute as Tayshaun Prince yet Chalmers was the worst defender on the court while Prince was the best.
• Jermaine O’Neal scored two clutch baskets, but otherwise played very poorly on both ends of the floor. How does someone his size pull down only one defensive rebound in 34 minutes?
  
  

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Pistons vs. Clippers, 3.20.2009

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (33-34) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (17-51)
Spread: Pistons -8
My Pick: Pistons by 7

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Win:

1. The Clippers. They stink, they put forth as little effort as they can get away with, and their coach has lost the team.
2. Tayshaun Prince. After being hounded by Ron Artest, Prince should have a field day against notoriously poor defender Al Thornton. Prince should feel like he's playing against JV players the day after facing a school's varsity team.
3. The Role Players. Will Bynum, Arron Afflalo and Kwame Brown have all played the best basketball of the season lately. As the Pistons continue to deal with injuries, those three should get plenty of opportunities.

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Lose:

1. The Grizzlies. If the Pistons can lose home games to the Grizzlies and the Knicks, anything is possible.
2. Health Swap. The last time these two teams met, the Clippers were missing half of their rotation. Tonight, it is the Pistons who will be undermanned.
3. Eric Gordon. The rookie has only improved since dropping 31 on the Pistons in January.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 108, Los Angeles 90
Notes:

• The Pistons were without four of their top-five scorers and still beat a healthy Clipper squad by 18.
• Antonio McDyess continues to put up Dwight Howard-esque stat lines. He kept the Pistons in the game during the first half.
• Will Bynum, Tayshaun Prince, and Walter Herrmann all had great games. Much of Tayshaun’s success resulted from Mike Dunleavy’s odd decision to let Baron Davis defend Prince for a large portion of the second half.
• Eric Gordon and Zach Randolph both have tons of talent. The difference is Gordon has the basketball IQ to match his athletics gifts. The former Hoosier scored 22 points on only nine shots.
• The Pistons continue to avoid turnovers and grab tons of offensive rebounds.
• The Clippers should be embarrassed about the lack of defense they played in the second half.
  

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Pistons at Rockets, 3.18.09

I will be participating in a Live Blog (link) on PistonPowered.com during the game. Piston Powered is a Detroit Piston's blog that is a part of the ESPN.com TrueHoop blog network. During the Live Blog, I will discuss the game, the state of the team, and will be available to answer questions. Thanks to Dan Feldman of Piston Powered for helping set this up.

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (33-33) at Houston Rockets (44-25)
Spread: Rockets -9
My Pick: Rockets by 12

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Man Down. The Rockets will not have standout reserve Carl Landry, who, like Rasheed Wallace, has a calf injury. Unlike Rasheed Wallace, Landry sustained his calf injury via a gunshot wound.
2. 80 Inches of Flu. Yao Ming is expected to play, but he has been battling the flu this week. With Tracy McGrady sidelined, the Rockets need the offense to run through Yao. If he is ineffective, the Rocket offense may be reduced to contested Ron Artest jump shots.
3. Shot Selection. Speaking of Artest jump shots, he’s near the league lead in ill-advised shot attempts. Occasionally his contested heaves go in, but his current shooting slump – 34% on field goals in his last five games – could easily continue tonight if he settles for jumpers. Von Wafer and Aaron Brooks also have a penchant for launching some head-scratchers.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Rocket Defense. The Rockets began the season as one of the top defensive teams in the NBA. Losing T-Mac and flipping Rafer Alston for Kyle Lowry puts them at the top of their class in the West.
2. Texas Two-Step. This is the fifth consecutive season the Pistons will play consecutive road games in Texas. Entering today’s game, the Pistons are 1-3 in the second half of the Texas trip.
3. Ailing Pistons. Iverson is out. Rasheed is doubtful. RIP is questionable. Afflalo is banged-up. Stuckey looks worn down. Will Bynum, Jason Maxiell, Kwame Brown, and Walter Herrmann will have to drastically out-perform their roles for the Pistons to have a chance.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 101, Houston 106 (2OT)
Notes:

• The Pistons are starting to pile up the moral victories. They played very well considering all the missing pieces.
• Normally Tayshaun Prince steps up when the Pistons are ailing, but Ron Artest was all over Prince last night.
• Arron Afflalo was awesome, scoring 24 points on 13 shots. He is 24-46 with 13 made three pointers since the All-Star break. That’s good for a ridiculous 66.3% effective field goal percentage. (The league average hovers around 50%)
• Prince played 55 minutes while McDyess played 51.
• Once again, the Pistons dominated the glass and the turnover battle, but failed to overcome a huge disparity in field goal percentage.

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