Ready Reserves

The standings show that the Pistons have been hurt by recent injuries. The Pistons have lost five of seven since Rasheed Wallace joined Allen Iverson on the injured list. RIP Hamilton has missed four games during that stretch, three of which were Piston losses. While the Pistons clearly miss their stars, there is a definite silver lining around the cloud of losses.

In the absence of three former All Stars, several Piston role players – most notably Will Bynum, Arron Afflalo, Kwame Brown, and Walter Herrmann – have had a chance to play extended minutes. The benefits are twofold. One positive is that the players have sufficient time to get comfortable and find a rhythm on the court. As a result, the coaching staff is able to discern what each player can offer the team and determine who deserves to be a part of the playoff rotation.

Will Bynum is doing his best to turn Allen Iverson into the modern day Wally Pipp. Bynum has electrified crowds with his ability to break down defenses and get into the paint. In the month of March, Bynum has poured in 9.8 points in just 18.8 minutes per game. Bynum still needs to improve his shooting – his effective field goal percentage is just 45.5% and he has not made a three all month – but his ability to create instant offense has been a welcome contribution off the bench. The fact that he has as many steals as turnovers this month also helps matters.

Bynum has proven to be a useful backup point guard, although it remains to be seen how many minutes he would play if everyone gets healthy. Even if his minutes are cut the remainder of this season, he has an inside track at the backup point guard duties and an increased role upon the inevitable departure of Allen Iverson this offseason.

Afflalo played in 51 of the team’s first 52 games, but watched his minutes slowly dry up as the season progressed. Afflalo was squeezed from the rotation partly due to a poor January, but also in part because Michael Curry went away from the small ball lineups that allowed for a rotation with six perimeter players. In the first 12 games after the All Star break, Afflalo played just 54 minutes total.

When the injuries began to pile up, Afflalo re-entered the regular rotation. Over the past six games, he has averaged just over 30 minutes per game. In that stretch, he is averaging 10.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 2 three pointers per game with an effective field goal percentage of 56.25%. While the stats won’t blow anyone away, Afflalo’s accurate outside shooting and tough perimeter defense have been a huge plus for a team sorely lacking in those two areas.

Arron Afflalo is in a similar position to Bynum. He is clearly deserving of a spot in the rotation, but it is entirely possible his minutes will be squeezed should Michael Curry have his full contingent of players healthy. As is the case with Bynum, Afflalo should be assured of a more significant role next season.

Kwame Brown has lived up to his four-million-dollar salary with his recent play in place of Rasheed Wallace. While no one will ever confuse the two offensively, Brown has proven to be a sturdy post defender. Over the past five games the Pistons have outscored their opponents by 31 points with Brown in the game, but have been outscored by 30 with him on the bench. Brown has averaged 8.0 points 8.4 rebounds in 29.4 minutes over that stretch, despite often playing alongside rebounding machine Antonio McDyess.

For a while, Brown appeared to be the odd man out of the big man rotation. Based on his recent play, he seems to have surpassed Amir Johnson, if not Jason Maxiell, in Michael Curry’s pecking order. All three should be expected to continue to jostle for position during the remaining few weeks of the season.

During one stretch of 18 games, Walter Herrmann played 11 minutes total. Given that the Pistons have yearned for better three point shooting all season, it was inevitable that he would get another chance. Over the last month, he has gotten that chance, but has produced mixed results. Herrmann has played in 15 of the Pistons’ last 16 games. In those 15 games, he has averaged just less than 5 points per game in 14 minutes of action. He has converted 14 of 39 (35.8%) from behind the arc and 14 of 32 (43.8%) inside it.

Since Herrmann brings almost nothing to the table outside of his shooting, his mediocre efficiency will not get it done. In the last two games, Herrmann played well against the Clippers and hit a crucial three against Miami, so there may be signs of life. Herrmann needs to build on that if he hopes to continue playing. The more likely result is that Herrmann joins Ronald Dupree, Maurice Evans, Carlos Delfino, and Jarvis Hayes on the list of players who failed to secure the role of Tayshaun Prince’s backup.

While the Pistons have learned a great deal about those four players, the results have been mixed. Will Bynum and Arron Afflalo have played well, but a healthy Piston squad has a glut of guards that would limit potential playing time for either. Brown and Herrmann had a better chance to secure additional minutes, but the play of each has been up and down.

At the very least, the Pistons’ role players have used the injuries to the stars to gain game experience and prepare themselves for the playoffs. While it was important for the role players to gain experience, the ultimate goal is to win the games. For that to happen, the Pistons need their stars healthy and their lesser players to continue to produce, but to do so in lesser roles and fewer minutes. The reserves have proven their worth as complimentary pieces. The losses are mounting based on a lack of stars for them compliment.

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Rounding Out the Rotation

The future of the Piston’s season hinges on two pieces falling into place much better than they have thus far. If the Pistons are going to make noise in the playoffs, they need Allen Iverson playing well and Michael Curry making smart decisions about his rotation. To date, Iverson has had a negative impact on the team – through his play, not his behavior – while Curry has often appeared lost. For Detroit to win a series or two, the team needs its bench to contribute. The only scenario in which that is possible involves a productive Allen Iverson and a logical rotation.

Without Iverson, the Piston’s perimeter backups have been inconsistent, to put it mildly. Arron Afflalo played well in the first half of the season, but has been mired in a horrible slump the last eight weeks. His PER for the season has fallen to 8.31. Despite his strong defense, he does not deserve to play based on that lack of production. Afflalo should get one more opportunity, given that his game seems to compliment Iverson’s nicely in the sense that Afflalo plays strong defense and does not need the ball on offense. However, Afflalo will only warrant consistent minutes if he can knock down open shots.

The man who has replaced Afflalo in the rotation is Walter Herrmann. Herrmann has made several spectacular plays this season. Those plays overshadow the many easy ones he has botched. Herrmann’s value to the team is supposed to lie in his shooting ability. This season, he has converted just 36.4 percent of his field goals attempts. Many of his makes have been threes, but the flip side of that perimeter shooting has been an inability to get to the free throw line. The result is that Herrmann has the worst true shooting percentage among the 12 Pistons who regularly dress.

Defensively, the exception has once again overshadowed the rule with Herrmann. Last spring, he played excellent defense on Dirk Nowitzki during a comeback attempt by the Pistons. Aside from that one game, he has typically been overmatched on the defensive end of the court. Herrmann often plays like his shoes are on fire. He is constantly jumping around and shuffling his feet. With so much movement, he often finds himself out of position and is easily beaten by his man. For Joe Dumars, the search for Tayshaun Prince’s backup should continue. Thus far, Ronald Dupree, Carlos Delfino, Maurice Evans, Jarvis Hayes, and now Herrmann have failed to fill the void left by trading Corliss Williamson.

The lone bright spot, as far as perimeter backups are concerned, has been Will Bynum. On a per-minute basis, Bynum leads the Pistons in assists and steals and is second to Allen Iverson in free throw attempts. However, with the good comes the bad for Bynum. He leads the Pistons in turnovers per minute, has fallen behind Allen Iverson into last on the Pistons in effective field goal percentage, and has a poor outside shot.

Bynum is effective at driving into the paint and drawing multiple defenders. While that skill has come in handy lately, that happens to be identical to Allen Iverson’s strength on the court. Both Bynum and Iverson are most effective with the ball in their hands. When one also considers that neither player is six-feet tall, it is hard to imagine them playing together. Rodney Stuckey and RIP Hamilton have clearly established themselves as the Pistons best backcourt, so they should be on the floor together as much as possible. Given that, it is hard to imagine Michael Curry finding minutes for both Bynum and Iverson. Curry hinted that he may want to try and play Bynum and Iverson together. Hopefully he reconsiders.

As much as Iverson can help the bench, he has the potential to do just as much damage to the starting unit. The Pistons need their best five players starting and finishing each half. If that means Iverson only plays 15 minutes per game, so be it. The Piston offense is most effective when the starters play together. Playing Iverson alongside three or four other starters would be counter-productive. The Pistons could rest three or more starters at once while Iverson takes over the offense. As soon as all five starters have had enough of a breather to return for the remainder of the half, Curry needs to send Iverson to the bench.

Without Iverson, the Piston bench has been ineffective. With him, the bench has the potential to be explosive. Curry needs to strike a balance between letting Iverson carry the bench unit without letting him take away from the starters’ effectiveness. The Piston’s season depends on it.

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Fastbreak Buckets 3.06.09

-If the Pistons want to separate themselves from the pack at the bottom of the East standings, they need to win five of their next six games – a feat which seems very possibly given their upcoming schedule. Detroit’s upcoming schedule features home games against Golden State, Orlando, New York, and Memphis along with road games against Atlanta and Toronto. The Pistons should dominate Golden State, New York, and Memphis, while Toronto should not pose much of a threat. If the Pistons maintain last week’s momentum, they should also fare well against Orlando and Atlanta. If the Pistons hope to make a push for a top-five seed in the playoffs – hence avoiding the East’s big-three in round one – there is no time like the present to make a move up the standings.

-Piston fans need to calm down about Will Bynum. The positives about Bynum are that he is fun to watch and he has an uncanny ability to get to the basket. The negatives are everything else. Bynum has no confidence in his jump shot and for good reason – he has made 29% of non-layup two-pointers and is 1/6 on threes this season. Despite his ability to get to the basket, he is shooting only 41%. A player Bynum’s size cannot survive in the NBA without a reliable jumper. Whenever he is on the court, opposing defenses simply clog the paint and force Bynum’s teammates to shoot over people. Bynum has shown enough this season to stick in the NBA as a third point guard, but until he learns to shoot well enough to keep defenses honest, he should not be playing significant minutes.

-Speaking of players who need to fix their shot, Arron Afflalo has disappeared from the Piston’s rotation. Afflalo is a nice defender with the potential to mimic the career paths of players like Raja Bell, Bruce Bowen, and Mickael Pietrus. While none of those players are great offensively, all hit open shots and force defenses to play them honestly. Therein lies the problem for Afflalo; his shot has abandoned him lately. Since the start of February, Afflalo is 2-11 on non-layup two pointers and 1-5 on threes. January was not much better – he shot below 40% for the month.

As a result of his poor shooting, Afflalo has played 14 minutes total in the team’s last seven games. During the first 30 games of the season, Afflalo shot better than 46% with more than a quarter of his makes coming on threes. He needs to re-establish that stroke if he hopes to return to the rotation. The good news for Afflalo’s future is that similar players have tended to be late bloomers. Raja Bell did not post a respectable PER until age 27, but is currently in the midst of his sixth consecutive productive season. Likewise, Bruce Bowen did not even find his footing in the NBA until he was 26. If Afflalo can continue to improve his defense and work on his shot, he should be valuable role player down the road. In the meantime, he’s going to be hard-pressed to earn minutes if he continues to be an offensive zero.

-One often overlooked aspect of the trade for Allen Iverson was the cap space created by including Antonio McDyess in the deal. While Pistons fans are very aware that the team cleared Billups’ twelve-million-a-year contract off the books, it should be noted that the Pistons no longer are obligated to pay McDyess 7.5 million next season. McDyess is an excellent role player who has done great things in Detroit, but in this economy, that money could go a long way on the free agent market this summer. Detroit should have roughly 18 million in cap space this summer.

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21 Reasons to Hope

The Pistons are an uninspiring 21-21 since the arrival of Allen Iverson. With pessimism spreading through Piston Nation, it’s time to run through the 21 reasons for Piston fans to be optimistic.

1. Rodney Stuckey. Stuckey is already a very good player, but he is on the fast track to stardom. The second year guard plays like a poor man’s cross between Dwyane Wade and Chauncey Billups. At the rate he’s progressing, “poor man’s” might be taken out of the analogy soon.

2. Draft Pick. The Pistons are playing just poorly enough that they might end up with a decent draft pick. When Dumars has drafted between picks 15 and 27, he has landed Tayshaun Prince, Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, and Arron Afflalo. The only pick in that range he would like to have back was the Carlos Delfino pick of 2003. This season, the Pistons will likely end up drafting in the late teens.

3. Reduced Wear and Tear. The Piston veterans have experienced grueling playoff runs each of the past seven seasons. An extended summer vacation may help revitalize them for future seasons.

4. April Will Matter. For the first since 2003, the Pistons might actually play April games that impact their playoff position. Only once since 2003 has an Eastern conference team finished fewer than five games away from the Pistons in the standings. The exception was 2007, when the Pistons finished three games ahead of the Cavaliers.

5. Joe Dumars. In Joe We (Should) Trust. He has been phenomenal as the general manager in Detroit. Even when he has made a mistake, he has been quick to compensate with a brilliant maneuver. If anyone can fix this mess, it is Dumars.

6. Iverson’s Days are Numbered. All-Star Allen Iverson has said he plans to test the free agent market this summer. That seems like a good idea, since the Pistons surely will not want to retain him. Aside from the possibility of addition by subtraction, this seems like a perfect opportunity for Bill Simmons’ “Ewing Theory” to strike.

7. Cap Space. When Iverson leaves, cap space will arrive. The last three times Dumars made serious plays in free agency, he landed Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess, and Nazr Mohammad. Two for three is a light years better than most organizations perform with free agent money.

8. Experimenting. Michael Curry has changed starting lineups and rotations more times than I’d care to remember. While that may have had disastrous effects on the team’s performance thus far, logic suggests that if he continues to test new ideas, eventually something should work. Maybe he should try benching Iverson.

9. Jason Maxiell. The “Baby Eater” is under contract through 2013. That gives him plenty of time to consume babies and do things like this.

10. No Losing in the Conference Finals. This is far from a given, but it looks like the Pistons streak of ending their season with a game-six loss in the conference finals will end at three. The preseason goal was to end the streak via improvement; however the Pistons appear to be taking a different approach.

11. Underdog Status. The Pistons of old relished the underdog mentality. They used perceived disrespect as a motivational tool. The Pistons have now regained underdog status. Step two is regaining underdog intensity.

12. Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons’ iron man has been one of the elite small forwards in the NBA for the last six seasons and has shown no signs of slowing down.

13. No More Flipping the Switch. For years – specifically the last two – there was talk the Pistons would flip a proverbial switch and play hard only when motivated. The current incarnation of the Piston is not good enough to earn such reports.

14. The Coaching Can Only Improve. As far as coaching goes, it is difficult to imagine the Pistons could possibly employ someone who performs worse than Curry has so far. Curry will have to improve or he will be fired, either of which would be progress.

15. Kwame’s Out. Michael Curry recently made it clear – through words and actions – that Kwame Brown will be spending the majority of games glued to the bench. Brown appears to finally be in a role that suits his talents: fifth big man on a team that typically plays four.

16. Longer Summer. The Pistons have kept their fans busy throughout May and often into June for the past six seasons. This summer, Piston fans should have much more time to enjoy the sun.

17. Arron Afflao. “Aflac” is a keeper who should play a much bigger role next season, when fellow shooting guard Allen Iverson departs. Afflalo’s defense and outside shooting would be valuable on any team.

18. No More Arrogance. The media has been annoyed with a perceived arrogance from the Pistons in recent seasons. One way to cure arrogance is to stop winning. In that sense, the Pistons appear to be fixing one of their character flaws.

19. No More Flip. At least before the season, less Flip Saunders seemed like a good thing.

20. Fun Gossip. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey has chosen to chronicle the Pistons’ struggles like a soap opera. Over the past two weeks, he has written articles – which may or may not be factual – about Dumars trying to trade Prince, dead team spirits, players lacking confidence, and a team that has little respect or trust in its coach. His sources are anonymous and his credibility is waning, but there is some entertainment value.

21. Amir Johnson. The 21st reason for Pistons fans to be optimistic is the continued development of one of basketball’s most talented 21-year olds. The young forward is already a game charger on the glass and with his defense. There are questions about his offense, but with time and opportunity, he might be better on that end than some anticipate.

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Midseason Report Card (Part II)

At 24-17 the Pistons have reached the mid-point of their season. That means it is time for midseason grades. Grades are based upon how well players have performed relative to expectations thus far in the 2008-2009 season. Click here for Part I, where I graded the starters.

Reserves

RIP Hamitlon: Hamilton has been the Pistons’ leading scorer for the last season so he showed a ton of humility in accepting a bench role, even if he might have done so begrudgingly. On the season, Hamilton has struggled without his partner in crime – Billups. His current scoring average would be the lowest since his rookie season. Hamilton was also worked over by a number of small forwards when he was asked to play out of position in small ball arrangements. The Pistons will now find out if he can be more productive as the focal point of the offense with the second unit. Grade: C

Antonio McDyess: The Pistons missed McDyess desperately during his league mandated 30-day wait to re-join the team after he was included in the Iverson deal. McDyess has lost considerable quickness since he signed with the Pistons in 2004, but he remains a reliable rebounder, post defender, and jump shooter. An underrated factor in the Pistons’ poor play this season is that McDyess is no longer starting and thus has had his minutes reduced. This may pay dividends in the playoffs if McDyess has fresher legs, but in the meantime the Pistons are a better team when McDyess is on the court. Grade: B+

Jason Maxiell: One of the worst consequences of small ball was that Maxiell was often squeezed out of the rotation. His minutes have been reduced, but his effectiveness has not wavered. When on the court, Maxiell changes games with his relentless rebounding and spectacular shot blocking ability. Maxiell is an undersized big, so he is a liability against certain post players. Otherwise, Maxiell is one of most productive Pistons and deserves at least 20 minutes per game to impact games. Grade: B

Arron Afflalo: With RIP Hamilton coming off the bench, Afflalo may struggle to see the court. When he does play, he has shown a vastly improved jump shot to pair with his already stellar defense. His poor playmaking abilities limit his effectiveness, but he is a valuable role player for the Pistons. His role should increase substantially next season, assuming that Iverson is not retained. Grade: B-

Kwame Brown: Brown played great defense against dominant post scorers including Shaquille O’Neal, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Tim Duncan. Otherwise, Brown has been completely useless. He is a disaster offensively who struggles to catch the ball, make free throws, or generally stay out of his own way. Brown is a serviceable fifth big man. Considering the ransom the Pistons paid for his services, it is safe to say they were hoping for more. Grade: C-

Will Bynum: Bynum has been a pleasant surprise for the Pistons. His role expanded when the Pistons traded Billups and moved Iverson to shooting guard, and Bynum has done an OK job at point guard. His jump shot is inconsistent and he is a liability defensively because of his size, but he has played well enough to earn a more permanent spot in the NBA. Grade: B+

Walter Herrmann: Herrmann was awesome the first week of the season, but has disappeared since. He excited fans with his three-point shooting and quirky forays to the basket, however his minutes were kept in check by an ability to stay in front of his man defensively. As his minutes waned, he lost his rhythm on his jump shot. He is now out of the rotation and probably on his way to a different organization by the start of next season. Grade: C-

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Off the High Glass: Arron Afflalo

“Off the High Glass” will be a segment on CTBAAF where I profile one of the Pistons. Today, Arron Afflalo goes under the microscope.

Joe Dumars selected Arron Afflalo out of UCLA with the 27^th pick in the 2007 draft. Coming out of college, Afflalo was touted as a scorer and a strong defender, but there were concerns about his athleticism. Afflalo has exceeded expectations defensively, but his relative lack of athleticism has manifested itself on offense. Even with the merely mediocre contributions offensively, the man Rasheed Wallace dubbed “Aflac” has played more than well enough to justify the first round selection.

Offense: Afflalo struggled offensively as a rookie. He was unable to find the shooting stroke that served him well as a Bruin. Afflalo finished the season with a 41.1% field goal percentage, including just 20.8% on three pointers. He lacks a quick first step or a deceptive crossover dribble and thus had very little success trying to penetrate defenses.

This season, Afflalo has rediscovered his jump shot. While he still has not shown the quickness to consistently maneuver past defenders, Afflalo has found an offensive niche as a spot-up shooter. He has made over half of his shots and more than doubled his three point field goal percentage. By knocking down open shots, Afflalo is forcing defenders to stay with him, thereby opening up the middle for players like Stuckey and Iverson.

Defense: “I have the potential to be great on defense,” Afflalo said in a recent interview. The assessment was spot on; there are stretches where he is brilliant defensively. However, there are also occasions where he is overly aggressive and winds up either out of position or committing a foul. Even with the occasional miscue, Afflalo has established himself as the best defensive guard on the Pistons. At 6’5, he can defend all shooting guards along with most point guards and small forwards.

In the Pistons two biggest road wins of the young season, Afflalo played excellent defense against a trio of Western conference stars. In Los Angeles, Afflalo entered the game with the score tied at 12. Kobe Bryant already had five points and had earned assists on two of the three baskets he did not score. Curry put Afflalo in the game to slow Bryant down and the California native delivered. The Lakers made more turnovers than field goals over the remainder of the quarter and the Pistons jumped out to a seven point. The lead did not dip below five after that point.

Against San Antonio, the results were similar. Afflalo entered the game with the Pistons trailing by two at the start of the fourth quarter. He and Rodney Stuckey took turns defending Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli. The pair of second year guards thwarted the Spurs’ attack by denying dribble penetration. During that stretch, the Pistons scored 15 points compared to seven for the Spurs. Once again, the lead that Afflalo helped build lasted the remainder of the game as the Pistons pulled off the upset.

Afflalo relies on preparation, lateral quickness, and toughness on defense. He knows each of his opponents’ strengths and does his best to take those away from the players he is guarding. He possesses above average lateral quickness and stays right in the face of his man. Afflalo is a hard-nosed player who refuses to surrender an inch. This occasionally leads to unnecessary fouls, but more often frustrates his opponents.

Overall: The Iverson trade and subsequent switch to small ball should reduce Afflalo’s minutes. Although he is a perfect fit for that style of play, the fact that the Pistons are playing Iverson almost exclusively at shooting guard creates a glut at the wing positions. Between Afflalo, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Hermann, there are not enough minutes to go around. As a result, Hermann will be forced to play out of position at power forward and Afflalo’s minutes will be squeezed. Even with the shortage of minutes, Afflalo will surely see the court if an opposing perimeter player is hurting the Pistons. The way Iverson plays defense, there should be plenty of those opportunities.

Afflalo still has room to grow, but is already one of the better perimeter defenders in the league. Offensively, Afflalo needs to find a way to get to the basket and also prove that his hot shooting this season is no fluke. For now, Afflalo is a very good backup. If he continues to improve – his work ethic is well-regarded – he has the potential to develop into a player similar to Bruce Bowen or Raja Bell. On a team that has struggled defensively this season, Afflalo has proven that he can be a part of the long term solution.

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