A Reason to Hope

Last night’s devastating loss to Chicago has relegated the Pistons to a playoff series with LeBron James. It also clinched Detroit’s first below-.500 season since 2001. As mediocre as the Pistons’ final record may be, the current incarnation of the Piston roster has actually been performed very well. As David Berri explained, Allen Iverson is an even worse basketball player than people realize.

• Iverson left Philadelphia and the Sixers got better.
• Iverson was expected to transform the Denver Nuggets into a title contender. Denver, though, never got out of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.
• Iverson left the Nuggets and the team got better.
• Iverson has arrived in Detroit, and the team got worse.
  –David Berri, Wages of Wins

This season, Iverson played in 57 games (three of which were with Denver). His team was 25-32 in those games. Denver has excelled without Iverson. Before too much of that success is attributed to the arrival of Chauncey Billups, consider how well the Pistons have played when Rasheed Wallace has played, but Iverson has not.

This season, in the 17 games when Rasheed Wallace has played while Iverson has not, the Pistons are 13-4. In a sample size large enough to warrant one’s attention, the Pistons have won more than three fourths of their games. The chart below lists the results of every game the Pistons have played with their starting center and without their alleged superstar. (Road games are in italics, losses are in red.)



In those 17 games, the Pistons have a scoring margin of +6.1 points per game. Extrapolated over the course of an 82-game season, a team with that scoring margin would be expected to win roughly 58 games. To a certain extent, the Pistons benefitted from a less than intimidating schedule, however they did earn road wins against Boston and Orlando, as well as home wins over Denver and Orlando. Of the four losses, three came against playoff teams and none were by more than five points.

This probably does not mean much for the playoffs because LeBron James is ridiculously awesome. It also can only shed so much light on the Pistons’ future considering that Wallace’s days in Detroit are probably coming to end in the near future. What it does say is the team the Pistons bring into the playoffs is probably the fourth-best in the East.

In a season where so much has gone wrong for the Pistons, the team is not that far from returning to contention. Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, and Amir Johnson should each continue to improve. Will Bynum and Kwame Brown should be better next season when there is more certainty regarding their roles. RIP Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince should remain effect for several more seasons, even though the decline phase of their careers has begun in subtle ways.

The only concerning components of the Piston rotation are Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, both of whom could potentially depart this summer. If Amir Johnson is given the opportunity, he is capable of taking up the slack for Dice. The drop-off in jump-shooting and veteran savvy would be compensated for with Johnson’s superior athleticism and defense.

If the Pistons can replace Rasheed Wallace, the team may find itself hosting a first round playoff series as soon as next season. The task may be easier than it sounds given the state of the economy. Players like Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap will struggle to find reasonable offers, while several team owners will be looking to trade away valuable players in exchange for financial relief.

The Pistons lost more than half of their games and are likely headed toward a very brief postseason appearance. Regardless, the Pistons sans Iverson are better than people realize. A return to prominence may not be as far off as common wisdom would suggest.

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Starting Big

With the Allen Iverson fiasco taken care of, the Pistons are left with only one significant rotation question heading into the playoffs (assuming they qualify). Theoretically, the Pistons could consider starting the surprising Will Bynum ahead of Rodney Stuckey, but Bynum’s aggressive style has fit in nicely with the second unit. Michael Curry made it clear that he plans to keep Stuckey in the starting lineup. With the backcourt rotation settled, Michael Curry needs to decide which of his five big men to start and which two of the remaining three bigs will see the bulk of the bench minutes.

When Rasheed Wallace returned from injury last week, Michael Curry hinted that he may keep Kwame Brown in the starting lineup along with Antonio McDyess. As I see it, there are five possible combinations of big men the Pistons could start in the frountcourt.

1. Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess.
   Wallace and McDyess are the two best big men Curry has, but if he starts both, that greatly weakens his bench. Wallace and McDyess are the only Piston bigs with reliable outside shots. As a result, the Pistons like to have at least one on the court at all times in order to spread the floor. In the regular season – if Curry starts both – there will be stretches where the bench struggles to score. This is mitigated in the playoffs when Curry is likely to increase the playing time for both Wallace and McDyess, thereby ensuring that one of the two is on the court at all times.
2. Kwame Brown and Antonio McDyess.
   Chris McCosky of The Detroit News and Matt Watson of DetroitBadBoys.com both endorsed this arrangement, although they stated their opinions under the assumption that Iverson would remain a part of the rotation. According to 82games.com, the Pistons have performed far better when Kwame Brown plays alongside either Antonio McDyess or Amir Johnson as opposed to playing with Rasheed Wallace or Jason Maxiell. If the Pistons intend to pair Brown and Johnson, they should bring them off the bench behind Wallace and McDyess. The more plausible way to start Brown would be to play him with McDyess. That arrangement gives the starting unit strong rebounding and interior defense, while it adds a scoring threat to the bench in the form of Wallace. While this makes some sense, I can’t support benching Wallace. His all-around game has been more valuable than the play of either McDyess or Brown and the +/- numbers back me up, even if PER gives the edge to McDyess.
3. Rasheed Wallace and Amir Johnson.
   For all of the reasons stated above, it makes plenty of sense to play McDyess and Brown together. With that said, the Wallace/Johnson combination has been even more effective than the McDyess/Brown pairing. Also, Antonio McDyess has stated on numerous occasions that he is more comfortable with a bench role, while Wallace has started nearly every game he has played over the last 10 seasons. More importantly, in the playoffs, Wallace has typically played about 35 minutes per game, while McDyess has averaged less than two thirds of that amount. Even last year, with Ben Wallace and Chris Webber out of the way, McDyess played only 27.5 minutes per playoff game. Wallace has proven he can handle heavy minutes while McDyess has not, so if the Pistons are only going to start one of the two, it should be Wallace.
4. Rasheed Wallace and Jason Maxiell.
   As much as I prefer the previous arrangement, Michael Curry would likely opt for this one if he decides to start Wallace but not McDyess. In my estimation, that would be a colossal mistake. Going back to 82games.com’s “player pairs,” the Pistons have not outscored their opponents when you pair Jason Maxiell with any player currently on the Piston roster. For the reasons outlined here, Maxiell struggles because he is a 6’6 player who cannot shoot or dribble well enough to overcome his relative lack of size. He does several things well, but defensive rebounding, shooting, and man defense are not among them. Maxiell should not be starting for a playoff team until those things change.
5. Rasheed Wallace and Kwame Brown.
   If Curry decides he wants to separate Wallace and McDyess and start Brown, he may test this route for the reasons explained under option 3. Brown has been a force defensively and on the glass, so he could prove valuable enough to start during the playoffs. Wallace’s game would seem to compliment Brown’s nicely, but thus far the combination has not performed well. The downfall of this lineup would lie with the bench, as Wallace and Brown are the only centers on the roster.

In summary, Michael Curry has several logical choices, but the best move would be to start Wallace alongside either McDyess or Johnson. It appears that Johnson has fallen out of the rotation. If that is the case, Curry should maintain the lineup he used against Charlotte, which featured Wallace and McDyess. While this hurts the bench during the regular season, this should be less of a problem in the playoffs.

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Fastbreak Buckets 1.27.09

Today’s edition of fastbreak buckets is a blockquote special.

-Interesting tidbit in the Monday’s Boston Globe. (H/T TrueHoop)

[Ray] Allen started wearing [a sleeve] when he was in a horrific slump during the Detroit series last spring. He wears the sleeve on just his left arm - sort of like Michael Jackson without the creepiness.
"Rip Hamilton grew his fingernails long and he was scratching me," explained Allen. "I needed the sleeve to shield me from those nails. And I've stayed with it."

Those are the type of tactics that earn a player “wily veteran” status from his fans and “dirty player” labels from his opponents. One thing that cannot be questioned is RIP’s willingness to do whatever it takes to win.

-Anonymous scouts are to sports what tabloids are to pop culture. They can both create unsubstantiated nonsense which appears as fact in print. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey, who usually does a much better job with his NBA coverage, had two quotes worth of anonymous rubbish in his Sunday column. (H/T Need4Sheed)

"[The Pistons] are playing with no emotion," says a long-distance viewer. Allen Iverson "has killed the team's spirit with his style of play."

I have noticed an inefficient offense, inconsistent defense, and poor coaching, but if a “long-distance viewer” can detect a dead spirit, maybe he knows something the rest of us do not.

So hooked on economics is Dumars, an agent testifies, he was prepared to deal treasured Tayshaun Prince for Stephen Jackson (or maybe it was Ron Artest) whose contract was set to terminate after next season.

It was one thing for the Pistons to trade Billups for cap space in an attempt to balance the roster; the Pistons had two quality point guards in Billups and Stuckey, but needed frontcourt help. Dumars elected to trade Billups for impending cap room which he will try to use to lure a big man, thus balancing the roster. Prince is a completely separate issue. If the Pistons were to trade Prince for cap room, they would have cap room and a major hole at small forward to fill. They would probably have to use that cap room to sign a small forward – probably a small forward very much like Prince. Dumars chimed in with his thoughts on the assertion.

"That's absolutely false! I'm not trading Prince, period," Dumars fumed.

-Piston players have made some disturbing comment about their coach recently.

Iverson, to The Detroit News, on the Pistons’ poor defense against Houston:

"Have you talked to MC yet?" Allen Iverson asked, referring to coach Michael Curry. "He should have the answers. He knows better than me why we're not getting it done."
…
"If it looked like we were playing a zone, and we weren't, that's not good," Iverson said.

More from Iverson in today's Detroit News.

"I would be lying if I said I wasn't frustrated," Iverson said. "I just feel like I can offer more to the team. I can do more to help us win games, and when that opportunity presents itself, I will be right here to take the challenge."

Tayshaun Prince hinted at displeasure with the coaching staff in this Detroit News article. He said the Pistons need to stop worrying about coaching schemes and simply play better. Reading between the lines, if they need to stop worrying about coaching schemes, that implies that players currently are worrying about coaching schemes.

"At some point you have to put all that aside and not worry about the X's and O's and just do what you have to do defensively as far as taking a challenge. I don't think we are doing that in the first quarters."
…
"It's tough because you would think at this point we would have found our way and we haven't," Prince said.

Rasheed Wallace was slightly less subtle than Prince when he spoke with The Detroit News.

"I guess you can say we were confused early," said Rasheed Wallace, who voiced his displeasure to Curry twice early in the game. "We figured it out in the second half but by then it was too late."

Wallace on his lack of fourth quarter touches against Houston after scoring ten points in the third quarter.

"It wasn't my call," Wallace said. "Just got to go with the flow, I guess."

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Midseason Report Card (Part I)

At 24-17 the Pistons have reached the mid-point of their season. That means it is time for midseason grades. Grades are based upon how well players have performed relative to expectations thus far in the 2008-2009 season. Today I’ll take a look at the starters. Check back this weekend to see grades for the reserves.

Starters

Rodney Stuckey: After a promising rookie season, there was hope that Stuckey would emerge as an elite backup for the Pistons. He struggled to find his rhythym during the first few weeks of the season, but he finished November strong and has not looked back. Stuckey earned a promotion to the starting lineup in December and he has risen to the challenge. The second year guard leads the Pistons in PER and has greatly improved his jump shot and his defense since his rookie season. Stuckey appears to be on the fast track to stardom. Grade: A-

Allen Iverson: Iverson came over in the much-discussed trade for Chauncey Billups. While it was clear that Iverson could not match Billups’ ability to defend or run an offense, the hope was that Iverson would be a superior scorer. So far, that has not materialized. Iverson is playing more minutes per game and taking more shots per game than Billups, but is averaging fewer points per game thanks to a huge disparity in true shooting percentage (59.1% for Billups, 51.0% for Iverson). Iverson has hit some huge shots (vs. OKC, at LAC) but also has missed his share of potentially game-altering shots (at POR, vs. CHA). Overall, Iverson has been a disappointment, but there is a chance he will begin to play better with the new lineup that should give him more opportunities to score. Grade: D+

Tayshaun Prince: When Prince was forced to play out of position at power forward, he struggled mightily. Thankfully, he has been returned to small forward. In the games that Prince has played small forward so far this season, he has been awesome. With Billups gone, Prince has emerged as the best player on the Pistons this season. Had he spent the entire season at small forward, there is a good chance he would be an all-star. He still has an outside chance to make the team if the East squad catches the injury bug. Grade: A-

Amir Johnson: Johnson’s minutes have yo-yoed up and down all season. Likewise, his production has been wildly inconsistent. He began the season as a starter and played fairly well as the starting line’s garbage man. Johnson was then moved to the bench in favor of Kwame Brown and his minutes and production both fell off – save for a strong three-game stretch to end November. Johnson was squeezed out of the rotation for much of December, but when an injury to RIP Hamilton allowed Johnson to re-enter the starting unit, he responded with two weeks of great defense, strong rebounding, and far too much fouling. Eventually the foul problems began to affect his performance. He is currently mired in an ineffective rut in which he has more fouls than points in January. Johnson recently returned to the starting lineup so it should be interesting to track his continued progress. Grade: B-

Rasheed Wallace: Wallace has played lethargic basketball for years, but he taken that to a new level this season. To say that Wallace appears to be going through the motions offensively would be generous. Occasionally he decides to saunter into the post, but more often he sets a screen or two and then drifts behind the three point line for the remainder of the possession. Wallace is an effective long-range shooter and he plays sturdy defense, but with a little intensity he could do so much more. Grade: B-

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