Am I Supposed to be Excited?

Yahoo's Adrian Wojnarowski reports that the Pistons are close to signing two former Connecticut Huskies to play alongside UConn alum RIP Hamilton.

"Chicago Bulls guard Ben Gordon and Milwaukee Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva flew to Detroit on Wednesday morning for a mid-day meeting with team president Joe Dumars and indications are both are moving rapidly toward deals with the Detroit Pistons."
--Yahoo! Sports

Kelly Dwyer sums up my feelings. If the reports are true, for the first time since he took over as GM, I have serious doubts about Joe Dumars and his plan. Prove me wrong Joe.

Update: ESPN's Henry Abbott used to like the Chauncey Billups trade from Detroit's perspective. Used to.

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Catching Up: Dumars Says “No” to Rajon Rondo

Reports circulated last week that the Pistons turned down a Celtic offer of Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen for Rodney Stuckey, RIP Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons apparently rejected the deal without much hesitation, but the deal is much too appealing to have merited such little consideration.

The current Piston roster is nowhere near contention. Adding Ben Gordon and either Carlos Boozer or Charlie Villanueva (a likely summer plan for Joe Dumars) would put the Pistons in the playoffs, but leave the team well short of beating Cleveland or Orlando. The aforementioned players are all poor defenders and neither Stuckey nor Hamilton would do much to compensate.

Part of the appeal to the deal would be the Pistons’ ability to upgrade from Stuckey to Rondo at point guard. While Stuckey has the potential to be a star, Rondo is already there. Both point guards are 23, but Rondo’s PER was four points higher last season. Rondo is also among the best defensive guards in the world.

The other benefit of the trade would be financial. This may be a tough pill for Piston fans to swallow, but given the right offer, the Pistons should jump at an opportunity to rid themselves of two players, Hamilton and Prince, set to earn big bucks in their 30s. Hamilton is 31 while Prince will turn 30 this season. Hamilton and Prince are on the payroll for roughly 23 million combined in 2011, followed by 12.65 million per season for Hamilton through 2013. Meanwhile, Ray Allen’s contract expires in 2010.

Maintaining the status quo ensures a half-hearted push toward relevance for the next few seasons while Hamilton and Prince fade toward retirement. The prescient move would be to aim for long-term success and shoot for an even higher ceiling. Removing the remaining overpaid players from the previous era would be a necessary step to do so. The Pistons would have to give Rondo a contract extension beginning in the 2011 season – a season in which Stuckey will still be on his rookie contract – but the overall financial ramifications of the deal would still strongly favor the Pistons.

Assuming the Pistons give Rondo a contract extension of roughly 12 million per season, the Pistons would create roughly 15 million dollars in additional cap space for the summer of 2010. Through this trade, the Pistons would have Rondo, whichever free agents they acquire this summer, and enough cap space to be a serious player in the much-ballyhooed summer of 2010. With the right maneuvering, Dumars could forge a foundation that could contend into the next decade.

While the deal appears attractive on the surface, there are legitimate concerns on Detroit’s end. There have been questions about Rajon Rondo’s character. Pairing him with Michael Curry may not be a smart fit, as Curry did a poor job managing difficult personalities last season. Also, for the deal to be worthwhile, the Pistons will have to find a player willing to take their money and worthy of earning it on the free agent market.

While the above concerns are legitimate, the Pistons need to at least be open to any and all possibilities for reshaping the roster. For the Pistons to return to elite status, Dumars must either drastically overhaul the roster or add a superstar. Swapping perimeter players with Boston accomplishes the former and puts the team in position to achieve the latter during the summer of 2010.

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One Step Back, How Many Forward?

It would be easy to use the Pistons’ play in the opening games of the playoffs as an indictment of the trade for Allen Iverson. Based on the way Chauncey Billups dominated his first playoff game this season, it seems crazy that the Joe Dumars traded him for a player who was mostly trouble for the Pistons. However, when the big picture is taken into account, the start to the playoffs has justified the trade more substantially than anything that happened during the regular season.

The Pistons have been utterly dominated by Cleveland. Save for the fourth quarter of game two – a quarter in which Cleveland relaxed with a 27-point lead – the Cavaliers have outscored the Pistons in every quarter. In game one, Cleveland did whatever it wanted offensively. The following game, the Cavaliers shut down the Piston offense; Detroit did not reach 19 points in any of the first three quarters.

What the Cavalier domination has proven is that Detroit is nowhere close to fielding a contender. While Chauncey Billups easily would have been the best player on the team, the Pistons had no chance to contend this season, with or without Mr. Big Shot.

Had the Iverson trade not happened, Billups likely would have led Detroit to a top-four seed and a second round exit. Dumars saw the writing on the wall and elected to jumpstart the rebuilding process by creating financial flexibility. The Pistons could have slowly faded into oblivion much the same that the Dallas Mavericks have fallen from the league’s elite. Thanks to Dumars’ foresight, that slow descent appears to have been avoided.

As much as the Pistons have struggled this season, several teams should be envious of the team’s ability to clean house this summer. Detroit has young talent and the financial flexibility to put together a completely new core as early as this summer. While teams like the Suns, Knicks, and Kings are forced to wait for bad contracts to expire before they rebuild, the Iverson trade has put the Pistons in a position to re-toll right away.

Dumars will accept nothing less than a team that can compete for a Championship. In order for a capable roster to materialize, Dumars made a trade that hurt the Piston roster in the short term. That has been a tough pill to swallow this year, but if the Pistons are back amongst the league’s elite by 2011 instead of 2014, the trade will be worth every embarrassing loss this team suffers over the next couple seasons.

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21 Reasons to Hope

The Pistons are an uninspiring 21-21 since the arrival of Allen Iverson. With pessimism spreading through Piston Nation, it’s time to run through the 21 reasons for Piston fans to be optimistic.

1. Rodney Stuckey. Stuckey is already a very good player, but he is on the fast track to stardom. The second year guard plays like a poor man’s cross between Dwyane Wade and Chauncey Billups. At the rate he’s progressing, “poor man’s” might be taken out of the analogy soon.

2. Draft Pick. The Pistons are playing just poorly enough that they might end up with a decent draft pick. When Dumars has drafted between picks 15 and 27, he has landed Tayshaun Prince, Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, and Arron Afflalo. The only pick in that range he would like to have back was the Carlos Delfino pick of 2003. This season, the Pistons will likely end up drafting in the late teens.

3. Reduced Wear and Tear. The Piston veterans have experienced grueling playoff runs each of the past seven seasons. An extended summer vacation may help revitalize them for future seasons.

4. April Will Matter. For the first since 2003, the Pistons might actually play April games that impact their playoff position. Only once since 2003 has an Eastern conference team finished fewer than five games away from the Pistons in the standings. The exception was 2007, when the Pistons finished three games ahead of the Cavaliers.

5. Joe Dumars. In Joe We (Should) Trust. He has been phenomenal as the general manager in Detroit. Even when he has made a mistake, he has been quick to compensate with a brilliant maneuver. If anyone can fix this mess, it is Dumars.

6. Iverson’s Days are Numbered. All-Star Allen Iverson has said he plans to test the free agent market this summer. That seems like a good idea, since the Pistons surely will not want to retain him. Aside from the possibility of addition by subtraction, this seems like a perfect opportunity for Bill Simmons’ “Ewing Theory” to strike.

7. Cap Space. When Iverson leaves, cap space will arrive. The last three times Dumars made serious plays in free agency, he landed Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess, and Nazr Mohammad. Two for three is a light years better than most organizations perform with free agent money.

8. Experimenting. Michael Curry has changed starting lineups and rotations more times than I’d care to remember. While that may have had disastrous effects on the team’s performance thus far, logic suggests that if he continues to test new ideas, eventually something should work. Maybe he should try benching Iverson.

9. Jason Maxiell. The “Baby Eater” is under contract through 2013. That gives him plenty of time to consume babies and do things like this.

10. No Losing in the Conference Finals. This is far from a given, but it looks like the Pistons streak of ending their season with a game-six loss in the conference finals will end at three. The preseason goal was to end the streak via improvement; however the Pistons appear to be taking a different approach.

11. Underdog Status. The Pistons of old relished the underdog mentality. They used perceived disrespect as a motivational tool. The Pistons have now regained underdog status. Step two is regaining underdog intensity.

12. Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons’ iron man has been one of the elite small forwards in the NBA for the last six seasons and has shown no signs of slowing down.

13. No More Flipping the Switch. For years – specifically the last two – there was talk the Pistons would flip a proverbial switch and play hard only when motivated. The current incarnation of the Piston is not good enough to earn such reports.

14. The Coaching Can Only Improve. As far as coaching goes, it is difficult to imagine the Pistons could possibly employ someone who performs worse than Curry has so far. Curry will have to improve or he will be fired, either of which would be progress.

15. Kwame’s Out. Michael Curry recently made it clear – through words and actions – that Kwame Brown will be spending the majority of games glued to the bench. Brown appears to finally be in a role that suits his talents: fifth big man on a team that typically plays four.

16. Longer Summer. The Pistons have kept their fans busy throughout May and often into June for the past six seasons. This summer, Piston fans should have much more time to enjoy the sun.

17. Arron Afflao. “Aflac” is a keeper who should play a much bigger role next season, when fellow shooting guard Allen Iverson departs. Afflalo’s defense and outside shooting would be valuable on any team.

18. No More Arrogance. The media has been annoyed with a perceived arrogance from the Pistons in recent seasons. One way to cure arrogance is to stop winning. In that sense, the Pistons appear to be fixing one of their character flaws.

19. No More Flip. At least before the season, less Flip Saunders seemed like a good thing.

20. Fun Gossip. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey has chosen to chronicle the Pistons’ struggles like a soap opera. Over the past two weeks, he has written articles – which may or may not be factual – about Dumars trying to trade Prince, dead team spirits, players lacking confidence, and a team that has little respect or trust in its coach. His sources are anonymous and his credibility is waning, but there is some entertainment value.

21. Amir Johnson. The 21st reason for Pistons fans to be optimistic is the continued development of one of basketball’s most talented 21-year olds. The young forward is already a game charger on the glass and with his defense. There are questions about his offense, but with time and opportunity, he might be better on that end than some anticipate.

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A Two Step Path to Contention

Since I spent my last two posts criticizing Dumars for the Iverson trade, I think that it is only fair that I offer some solutions. Plus, nothing is more fun for the average sports fan than playing “armchair GM” and coming up with preposterous trades that have no chance of actually happening. Without further ado, here is the moderately realistic plan that I propose to get the Pistons back into contention.

Step 1: Trade Tayshaun. Tayshaun Prince is probably the best and most valuable player on the Pistons. He has no real weakness compared to plenty of strengths and he always plays smart. He is a very good defender, a good long range shooter, a solid post up offensive player, and on broken plays he excels at shooting mid-range jumpers over defenders as the shot clock winds down on. Prince is a borderline all-star in his prime who, as a 28 year old with a reasonable contract, has significant trade value. It might be time for the Pistons to cash in.

When Larry Brown and Flip Saunders ran the show in Detroit, the Pistons almost exclusively used a set half court offense that relied upon timing and execution. Chauncey Billups would walk the ball up the court, the Pistons would run a play that used most of the shot clock and more often than not, the end result was a high percentage shot. Prince’s game has also been very methodical and under control. The slow, execution-based offenses were perfectly suited for his game.

Michael Curry emphasizes a very different approach to offense. Instead of asking his players to walk the ball up the court and set up a play, Curry implores his team to attack quickly. Under Curry, the Pistons are more of a fast break team that tries to take advantage of defenses that have not had time to set up entirely. This style does not suit Prince’s game and many times this season, Prince has slowed down the offense in order to get into a set reminiscent of the offenses of old. If the Pistons are to embrace Michael Curry’s ideals, Prince may have to go.

Here are three possibilities for trading Prince, listed in order of how desirable I consider each deal for the Pistons.

Trade Possibility A: Tayshaun Prince to Philadelphia for Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, Willie Green, and Jason Smith. (Trade Machine View)

Last season, the 76ers surprised pundits by making the playoffs with an inexperienced team. Over the summer, the team added Elton Brand in an attempt to solidify their defense and rebounding, while giving them a reliable offensive option in half court sets. So far, Brand is struggling to mesh with the up-tempo athletes that dominate Philly’s rotation. By swapping Young for Prince, the 76ers would add a second reliable offensive option as well as a lockdown defender who could potentially make Philly one of the elite defensive teams in the league. Prince is a much better fit alongside Brand than Young, and along with Miller and Dalembert, the 76ers would have a team much better suited to excel in the half court on both ends of the floor. By making this trade, the 76ers would be either the third or fourth best team in the East, depending on what one thinks of the Magic.

As for the Pistons, Thaddeus Young would be a perfect fit in Michael Curry’s system. The Piston lineup that has screamed “Michael Curry basketball” has included Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, RIP Hamilton, Jason Maxiell, and Amir Johnson. When those five players are on the court together, they pressure the ball, trap aggressively, and create fast break opportunities on offense. Young is a perfect fit for that style of basketball.

He is a natural small forward who is quickly developing an outside shot, but excelled in last season’s playoffs by making hustle plays and attacking the offensive glass. He is also capable of playing power forward, a position where Curry surely would utilize him in small ball lineups.

Marreese Speights is talented rookie big man whose bulk would allow him to complement either the skinny Amir Johnson or the undersized Jason Maxiell in the frontcourt. Willie Green would be able to return to Detroit, where he grew up, although he has proven to be a marginal player with an unfriendly long term contract that the Sixers would love to dump. Jason Smith showed promise as a rookie, but his career has been derailed by a devastating knee injury. He would be included in the deal strictly for salary cap reasons. If the Pistons struggle this season and Young continues to develop, Speights may need to be taken out of the trade in order for Philadelphia to accept.

Trade Possibility B: Tayshaun Prince to the Lakers for Trevor Ariza, Jordan Farmar, Chris Mihm, and a spare part signed for 1.05 million TBD. (Trade Machine View)

The Lakers would add another star to their already impressive starting lineup. The Lakers, Celtics, and Cavaliers are the three elite teams in the NBA this season and this trade would be just what the Lakers need to push themselves ahead of the class. A seven man core of Fisher, Bryant, Prince, Gasol, Bynum, Vujacic, and Odom would be as good as any the NBA has seen in a long time. While the Lakers are enamored with Farmar and Ariza, the opportunity to replace Radmanovic with Prince in the starting lineup should be too enticing to pass up.

Detroit would add two players who fit Michael Curry’s system perfectly. Ariza is the type of aggressive athlete Curry covets and – with the exception of the three point shot – would provide many of the same skills as Young. Farmar would be a perfect backup to Stuckey at point guard and the two could also play together. Mihm is merely being included for salary cap reasons.

Trade Possibility C: Tayshaun Prince to Utah for CJ Miles, Ronnie Price, Kosta Koufos, and Matt Harpring. (Trade Machine View)

I’m not certain if that deal can work as presently constructed due to Miles’ base year compensation status, but spare parts can be included if needed. The deal makes obvious sense for Utah. They have been looking for a star player to man one of the wing positions for years and Prince would fit the bill. He would essentially take up the minutes that Miles and Harpring combine to play and would provide a major upgrade for the Jazz. Brevin Knight is more than capable of taking over backup point guard duties from Price, while Koufos is a project that Utah can afford to sacrifice.

On the Pistons side of the things, this deal would bolster the team’s depth at the expense of its star power. Miles had a breakout season last year and has been ever better this season. He is a solid all around player at small forward and should develop into an above average starter. Price is a serviceable backup point guard, which is a position the Pistons will need to fill after Iverson is let go and Stuckey moves into the starting unit. Price and Miles do not add up to fair value for Prince, so including Koufos would be a must if Dumars is to accept. Harping has been a very good role player throughout the decade, but with Prince, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver and Andrei Kirilenko manning the wings, Utah would have little need for his tough play. His contract needs to be included for the contracts to match up.

Step 2: Be patient and only sign players (such as Rasheed or any available free agents) to one year deals in the summer of 2009. Then, in the summer of 2010, hope that either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire can be convinced to take Bill Davidson’s money.

If the Pistons simply made the one of the above trades and did nothing else, their roster entering the 2010 season would look something like this:

PG: Rodney Stuckey, Jordan Farmar/Ronnie Price/Will Bynum?
SG: RIP Hamilton, Arron Afflalo
SF: T. Young/T. Ariza/CJ Miles, W. Sharpe
PF: Amir Johnson, J. Maxiell
C: _______, M. Speights/K. Koufos/K. Brown?

By making the moves suggested above, the Pistons would have plenty of available cap space for the summer of 2010, some of which will be needed to re-sign Amir Johnson. The only way to complete that roster would be to add a stud at center. The Pistons would have the flexibility to offer a maximum contract and there are plenty of stars who will be on the market that summer. The two that make the most sense for the Pistons are Amare Stoudemire and Chris Bosh. Each of their teams could be in terrible shape entering that summer and if they want to win, there are plenty of reasons that the two young stars should consider Detroit.

In Stoudemire’s case, the appeal is obvious. Phoenix could be a disaster zone 18 months from now. Shaq, Grant Hil, and Raja Bell will be done, Steve Nash will be a free agent nearing the end of his career, and Nash and Stoudemire are the only players on the current roster who should be starting in the NBA in 2011. If Stoudemire wants to compete for a Championship, he will want to get out of Phoenix. In Detroit, he would be the focal point of the offense – which he very clearly desires – and his ability to attack the basket would fit perfectly with Michael Curry’s approach. However, because of his shortcomings on defense, he is not the best case scenario signee for the Pistons.

Chris Bosh is just as lethal as Amare offensively, except he also brings his A-game on the defensive end of the floor. Bosh is already one of the ten best players in the NBA and he still has room to grow. There is a good chance that he will try to join forces with LeBron, either in Cleveland or with one of the New York teams, but if not, the Pistons would love to have him.

By following that plan, the Pistons could quickly re-emerge as contenders – a status they lost when they dealt Billups.

(Note: Anyone who has read my previous posts is probably wondering how I can write that the Pistons’ chances of landing Bosh or Amare are slim and then advocate a plan based on getting one of those players. I stand by my belief that the team’s chances of landing one of the stars is less than 50-50 and I do not think it was wise of Dumars to trade Billups – an elite point guard – for cap space that may or may not help land a start two years down the road. With that said, the Pistons absolutely need a replacement for Rasheed in the frontcourt and Kwame Brown is not the answer. The Pistons have no internal options and are unlikely to find such a player late in the draft, so the best they can do is hope to lure a star free agent.)

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One Month Later: A Look Back on the Iverson Trade (Part II)

If Joe Dumars did trade Billups for Iverson in order to facilitate a championship run this season, he appears to have committed his greatest blunder since drafting Darko Milicic. At this stage of their careers, Chauncey Billups is simply a better basketball player than Allen Iverson.

Comparing the two on defense is almost comical. Billups is a good, steady defender while Iverson is one of the worst defensive players in the NBA. Stats cannot tell the whole story on defense, but they do provide some insight. So far this season, the Pistons allow an additional 5.7 points per 100 possessions with Iverson on the court compared to when he is off the court. The Nuggets allow 1.4 points fewer points per 100 possessions with Billups on the floor. Opposing point guards have posted an 18.9 PER against Iverson this season, while Billups has held point guards to a 13.4 PER. Iverson has been even worse in his limited time trying to guard shooting guards.

Subjectively, Iverson’s defense has been every bit as bad as those stats suggest. While on the ball, Iverson lacks the strength to fight through picks. Off the ball, he is focused on jumping into passing lanes which has produced occasional steals and frequent open looks for the man he is supposed to be guarding. In his first three weeks as a Piston, Iverson was lit up by Devin Harris (38pts), Beno Udrih (18), CJ Watson (17), Mo Wiliams (25), Rajon Rondo(18), Randy Foye (23, 14ast) and Ramon Sessions (21). Even in the Pistons past two games, against Portland and San Antonio, the team clearly played its best defense with Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo matching up against opposing guards.

While no one expected Iverson to be an upgrade on the defensive end, the hope was that he could provide a boost on offense. The evidence suggests otherwise. On a points per possession basis, the Pistons were sixth in the NBA offensively in each of the previous two seasons. This season, when Iverson has not been on the court, the Pistons have scored 113.7 points per 100 possessions, a total higher than any team in the NBA so far. With Iverson on the court, that number drops to 104.3, which would be near the league average. Billups’ team has been an astounding 16.9 points per possession better offensively when he is in the game.

Allen Iverson’s biggest problem offensively is turnovers. Iverson has committed 3.1 turnovers per game as a Piston, nearly double Billups’ 1.6 mark in Denver. Iverson is also a much less efficient scorer than Billups. Iverson has a 52.2% true shooting percentage on the season, which pales in comparison to Billups’ 59.1%. Detroit’s top scorer in recent years – RIP Hamilton – has also been adversely affected by the arrival of Iverson. RIP averaged 20 points per game in the four games before the team acquired Iverson, but has averaged less than 15 points per contest alongside the future hall of famer.

Part of the reason the Pistons have struggled so much with Iverson can be attributed to an adjustment period. With that said, as Isaac Newton explained: “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” If the Pistons are struggling due to an adjustment period, we should see the same thing with Billups in Denver. There are problems with Iverson that patience and acclimation will not fix.

It’s far too early to call the deal a bust for the Pistons. The team does have a chance, albeit not a great one, to land either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire in 2010 if it is able to preserve its cap space. Also, Joe Dumars is concerned with the product the Pistons have on the court in the playoffs, so judging players based on the regular season is somewhat unfair. I just fear that with Iverson taking over for Billups, there will be fewer playoff games than usual for Dumars to judge.

(Stats courtesy of 82games.com and ESPN.com)

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One Month Later: A Look Back on the Iverson Trade (Part I)

Joe Dumars must have a plan. Dumars always has a plan. This time, I’m just struggling to see it.

One month ago, Dumars traded the face of the franchise – Chauncey Billups – to the Denver Nuggets for Allen Iverson. Antonio McDyess and Cheikh Samb were also sent to Denver in the deal, but McDyess is set to return to Detroit and Samb is, at best, a project capable of developing into a poor man’s Mikki Moore. As a result, the deal was essentially just a swap of Billups for Iverson.

When news of the deal first broke, I was shocked. One month later, I’m as confused as ever. There are three possible reasons Dumars could have made the deal.

One possibility is that Dumars was simply trying to ratchet up ticket sales by injecting excitement into a stale product being offered in a dreary economy. I think it is safe to quickly dispel that possibility. Dumars knows the only way to consistently sell tickets is to produce a winner. The trade did lead to a temporary spike in ticket sales, but if the team is made worse either in the short or long run, those gains will quickly be negated.

Another possibility is that Dumars was hoping to improve the team’s future outlook by creating financial flexibility. This theory suggests that Dumars did not believe that the opening day roster could win a championship, thus he opted to re-build around his younger players. Suffice it to say that I’m not a huge fan of trading Chauncey in a salary dump. The Pistons were good enough to win 55-60 games this year and were among the top five teams in the league with Billups on the roster. Making a move simply to dump Billups’ reasonable contract does not make sense unless there is a player acquisition on the horizon.

If this were the case however, then the only way for the Pistons to improve would be to allow Iverson and Rasheed Wallace to walk. The Pistons would then have the cap space to add a player who helps the team more than Billups. While soon-to-be free agents LeBron, Amare, Wade, and Bosh are all fun names to toss around, is there really any chance that one of those four comes to Detroit? I don’t buy it. Not with the city’s lack of glamour and poor climate.

If the Pistons are looking toward the future, they need a big man to replace Rasheed – unless of course they can get their hands on LeBron, in which case they can worry about positions later. They could try to bring Mehmet Okur back, but I’m not sure how likely that is. He will be 30 when he signs his next contract and has a nice situation in Utah. Shawn Marion and Lamar Odom will both be free agents and either could join Prince as a forward in a small ball frontcourt, but that would still leave the Pistons with a hole in the middle. Other options include Boozer (don’t get your hopes up) and David Lee (is he really an improvement on Maxiell and/or Amir Johnson?). If the Pistons can get their hands on a superstar or a big man who they can pair with Amir, I take back everything in this column and concede that Dumars is a genius two steps ahead of the game. Otherwise, the “look toward the future” rationalization of the trade appears flawed.

The third, and most likely, reason that Dumars pulled the trigger is that he felt the Pistons are better positioned to contend for a championship with Iverson than with Billups. Check back for Part II, in which I will explore the logic behind such a suggestion.

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