Showing posts with label Amir Johnson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Amir Johnson. Show all posts

Breaking News: Amir Johnson Dealt

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

http://www.freep.com/article/20090623/SPORTS03/90623053/1051/Reports++Pistons+deal+Amir+Johnson+to+Bucks+for+Fabricio+Oberto

Sad day here at CTBAAF. Hopefully Joe Dumars has a plan with the additional cap space he just created. More on this later.

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A Reason to Hope

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Last night’s devastating loss to Chicago has relegated the Pistons to a playoff series with LeBron James. It also clinched Detroit’s first below-.500 season since 2001. As mediocre as the Pistons’ final record may be, the current incarnation of the Piston roster has actually been performed very well. As David Berri explained, Allen Iverson is an even worse basketball player than people realize.

    • Iverson left Philadelphia and the Sixers got better.
    • Iverson was expected to transform the Denver Nuggets into a title contender. Denver, though, never got out of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.
    • Iverson left the Nuggets and the team got better.
    • Iverson has arrived in Detroit, and the team got worse.
      –David Berri, Wages of Wins
This season, Iverson played in 57 games (three of which were with Denver). His team was 25-32 in those games. Denver has excelled without Iverson. Before too much of that success is attributed to the arrival of Chauncey Billups, consider how well the Pistons have played when Rasheed Wallace has played, but Iverson has not.

This season, in the 17 games when Rasheed Wallace has played while Iverson has not, the Pistons are 13-4. In a sample size large enough to warrant one’s attention, the Pistons have won more than three fourths of their games. The chart below lists the results of every game the Pistons have played with their starting center and without their alleged superstar. (Road games are in italics, losses are in red.)



In those 17 games, the Pistons have a scoring margin of +6.1 points per game. Extrapolated over the course of an 82-game season, a team with that scoring margin would be expected to win roughly 58 games. To a certain extent, the Pistons benefitted from a less than intimidating schedule, however they did earn road wins against Boston and Orlando, as well as home wins over Denver and Orlando. Of the four losses, three came against playoff teams and none were by more than five points.

This probably does not mean much for the playoffs because LeBron James is ridiculously awesome. It also can only shed so much light on the Pistons’ future considering that Wallace’s days in Detroit are probably coming to end in the near future. What it does say is the team the Pistons bring into the playoffs is probably the fourth-best in the East.

In a season where so much has gone wrong for the Pistons, the team is not that far from returning to contention. Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, and Amir Johnson should each continue to improve. Will Bynum and Kwame Brown should be better next season when there is more certainty regarding their roles. RIP Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince should remain effect for several more seasons, even though the decline phase of their careers has begun in subtle ways.

The only concerning components of the Piston rotation are Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, both of whom could potentially depart this summer. If Amir Johnson is given the opportunity, he is capable of taking up the slack for Dice. The drop-off in jump-shooting and veteran savvy would be compensated for with Johnson’s superior athleticism and defense.

If the Pistons can replace Rasheed Wallace, the team may find itself hosting a first round playoff series as soon as next season. The task may be easier than it sounds given the state of the economy. Players like Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap will struggle to find reasonable offers, while several team owners will be looking to trade away valuable players in exchange for financial relief.

The Pistons lost more than half of their games and are likely headed toward a very brief postseason appearance. Regardless, the Pistons sans Iverson are better than people realize. A return to prominence may not be as far off as common wisdom would suggest.

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Starting Big

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

With the Allen Iverson fiasco taken care of, the Pistons are left with only one significant rotation question heading into the playoffs (assuming they qualify). Theoretically, the Pistons could consider starting the surprising Will Bynum ahead of Rodney Stuckey, but Bynum’s aggressive style has fit in nicely with the second unit. Michael Curry made it clear that he plans to keep Stuckey in the starting lineup. With the backcourt rotation settled, Michael Curry needs to decide which of his five big men to start and which two of the remaining three bigs will see the bulk of the bench minutes.

When Rasheed Wallace returned from injury last week, Michael Curry hinted that he may keep Kwame Brown in the starting lineup along with Antonio McDyess. As I see it, there are five possible combinations of big men the Pistons could start in the frountcourt.

  1. Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess.
    Wallace and McDyess are the two best big men Curry has, but if he starts both, that greatly weakens his bench. Wallace and McDyess are the only Piston bigs with reliable outside shots. As a result, the Pistons like to have at least one on the court at all times in order to spread the floor. In the regular season – if Curry starts both – there will be stretches where the bench struggles to score. This is mitigated in the playoffs when Curry is likely to increase the playing time for both Wallace and McDyess, thereby ensuring that one of the two is on the court at all times.
  2. Kwame Brown and Antonio McDyess.
    Chris McCosky of The Detroit News and Matt Watson of DetroitBadBoys.com both endorsed this arrangement, although they stated their opinions under the assumption that Iverson would remain a part of the rotation. According to 82games.com, the Pistons have performed far better when Kwame Brown plays alongside either Antonio McDyess or Amir Johnson as opposed to playing with Rasheed Wallace or Jason Maxiell. If the Pistons intend to pair Brown and Johnson, they should bring them off the bench behind Wallace and McDyess. The more plausible way to start Brown would be to play him with McDyess. That arrangement gives the starting unit strong rebounding and interior defense, while it adds a scoring threat to the bench in the form of Wallace. While this makes some sense, I can’t support benching Wallace. His all-around game has been more valuable than the play of either McDyess or Brown and the +/- numbers back me up, even if PER gives the edge to McDyess.
  3. Rasheed Wallace and Amir Johnson.
    For all of the reasons stated above, it makes plenty of sense to play McDyess and Brown together. With that said, the Wallace/Johnson combination has been even more effective than the McDyess/Brown pairing. Also, Antonio McDyess has stated on numerous occasions that he is more comfortable with a bench role, while Wallace has started nearly every game he has played over the last 10 seasons. More importantly, in the playoffs, Wallace has typically played about 35 minutes per game, while McDyess has averaged less than two thirds of that amount. Even last year, with Ben Wallace and Chris Webber out of the way, McDyess played only 27.5 minutes per playoff game. Wallace has proven he can handle heavy minutes while McDyess has not, so if the Pistons are only going to start one of the two, it should be Wallace.
  4. Rasheed Wallace and Jason Maxiell.
    As much as I prefer the previous arrangement, Michael Curry would likely opt for this one if he decides to start Wallace but not McDyess. In my estimation, that would be a colossal mistake. Going back to 82games.com’s “player pairs,” the Pistons have not outscored their opponents when you pair Jason Maxiell with any player currently on the Piston roster. For the reasons outlined here, Maxiell struggles because he is a 6’6 player who cannot shoot or dribble well enough to overcome his relative lack of size. He does several things well, but defensive rebounding, shooting, and man defense are not among them. Maxiell should not be starting for a playoff team until those things change.
  5. Rasheed Wallace and Kwame Brown.
    If Curry decides he wants to separate Wallace and McDyess and start Brown, he may test this route for the reasons explained under option 3. Brown has been a force defensively and on the glass, so he could prove valuable enough to start during the playoffs. Wallace’s game would seem to compliment Brown’s nicely, but thus far the combination has not performed well. The downfall of this lineup would lie with the bench, as Wallace and Brown are the only centers on the roster.

In summary, Michael Curry has several logical choices, but the best move would be to start Wallace alongside either McDyess or Johnson. It appears that Johnson has fallen out of the rotation. If that is the case, Curry should maintain the lineup he used against Charlotte, which featured Wallace and McDyess. While this hurts the bench during the regular season, this should be less of a problem in the playoffs.

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Defending Amir's Defense

Monday, March 30, 2009

The Pistons have two talented young power forwards in Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson. Both are high-energy players who excel at offensive rebounding, shot blocking, and finishing around the basket. While neither player has well-polished skills, they make up for their shortcomings by playing with boundless energy.

Maxiell does many things better than his younger counterpart. Maxiell makes better decisions defending the pick and roll, is a stronger post defender, has a more polished post game, and makes far fewer mistakes such as setting moving screens or committing unnecessary fouls. It’s more difficult to pinpoint the areas where Johnson outshines Maxiell. Johnson is a better rebounder and shot blocker, but Maxiell is ahead in most other statistical categories, which is reflected in his lead of nearly two points in PER.

Despite what the statistics say, Amir Johnson is a better player than Maxiell. While Maxiell leads to Johnson in most traditional statistics, Johnson dominates one crucial category: opponents points allowed.

With Jason Maxiell on the court this season, the Pistons have allowed 111.8 points per 100 possessions (the league average is near 105) With Amir Johnson on the court the Pistons give up just 102.1 point per 100 possessions. Offensively, the Pistons offense gains a modest 0.6 points per 100 possessions with Maxiell in the game as opposed to Johnson. In total, the Pistons are a net 9.1 points per 100 possessions better with Johnson on the court than with Maxiell. To put that in perspective, a net swing of 9.1 points per 100 possessions is roughly the difference between a 30-win team and a 55-win team in today’s NBA. The numbers were similar last season, when the Pistons were a net 8.1 points per 100 possessions better with Johnson on the court than with Maxiell.

The explanation for the disparity lies in the “little things” that do not show up in box scores. Amir Johnson is four inches taller than Maxiell and is therefore much better at contesting shots. Johnson also has better lateral quickness which allows him to close on perimeter shooters and recover to the basket more quickly than Maxiell can. Also, partly as a result of the height disparity, Johnson is much better at keeping possessions alive on the offensive end. Even on plays where Johnson does not corral the offensive rebound, he frequently tips missed shots to teammates or causes an opponent to knock the ball out of bounds. Lastly, Johnson’s superior defensive rebounding and shot blocking are crucial.

What Amir Johnson lacks in skill and basketball IQ, he makes up for with size, athleticism, and tenacity. Jason Maxiell is also athletic and plays with as much tenacity as anyone, but the reality is that 6’6 players who struggle to shoot or dribble rarely survive in the NBA. It should also be noted that whereas Johnson has the enormous hands one would expect on a 6’10 athlete, Maxiell has relatively small hands for an interior player. Numerous balls near Maxiell end up just out of his reach or bounce off of his hands.

The goal of an NBA team is to outscore its opponent. On a per possession basis, the Pistons have done that better with Amir Johnson on the court than with any other player on the team. His minutes have been jerked around all season, but it is time Amir Johnson becomes a permanent fixture in the rotation.

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Curry Can't Create Consistency

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

In coaching, there is a fine line between successfully making adjustments and maintaining consistency. If a coach is too rigid, that coach will fail to make the changes a team needs. When a coach is inflexible with rotations, there is less incentive for players to work to either maintain or expand their roles.

On the other hand, a coach has to maintain some level of stability. There is a middle ground between keeping pressure on a player to earn his minutes and forcing a player to look over his shoulder at every turn. A player needs the freedom to play aggressively without the fear that a few missteps will lead to a reduction in minutes.

All season long, players have been talking about the “transitions” and “adjustments” that accompany roster and coaching changes. Thanks to Michael Curry’s constant tinkering, players have had the added duty of adjusting to different minutes and rotation patterns on almost a game-by-game basis. A player has no chance to find a rhythm if his minutes are yo-yoing and he is forced to play alongside a different group of teammates almost every game.

Michael Curry has come nowhere to achieving balance between flexibility and stability this season. The first lineup change – Iverson replacing Billups – was out of Curry’s control. Since then, Curry had changed the starting lineup four times. After the trade, he first started Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, Wallace, and Johnson. He then inserted Kwame Brown in place of Johnson in order to add muscle to the team’s interior. When Brown failed to produce, he was replaced by Rodney Stuckey in hopes of starting the team’s five best players. Small ball was a disaster, so Curry re-inserted Amir Johnson, this time in place of RIP Hamilton. Today, Curry will be implementing his latest change: starting Antonio McDyess in place of Johnson.

So much for preserving credibility. Less than a month ago, Curry had this to say about the team’s starting lineup:

"This is it for the rest of the season," Curry said.
--The Grand Rapids Press

The players sound resigned to the constant tinkering.

"At this point, we've had so many different lineup changes, it really doesn't matter," Tayshaun Prince said. "We just have to start playing together and try to get some wins. Dyess will help us defensively and rebounding and he will make some shots. But the key to it all now is, who's going to be that big coming off the bench for us? There's good ways and bad ways to look at it.”
-- The Detroit News
The move also flies in the face of everything Curry has said about developing the young players and trying to stagger the minutes of Wallace and McDyess. Curry likes to have one his veteran big men on the court at all times because they are the only two Piston big men with reliable outside shots. When any combination of Johnson, Jason Maxiell, and Kwame Brown are on the floor together, opposing big men can sag into the paint and clog the middle. With Wallace and McDyess starting and finishing games together, Curry will struggle to find minutes for both Johnson and Maxiell – the two Piston big men who are actually a part of this team’s future. Also, while Johnson has not played as well as many had hoped, he is second on the team in net +/-. This implies that even though Johnson is not filling up the stat sheet, the team performs much better when he is on the court.

The man being promoted, Antonio McDyess, is currently saying all the right things, but past comments indicate he is not a fan of the switch.

"I can't see that happening," McDyess said Friday after practice. "Where I'm at mentally, I don't know if starting would be good for me. I think I work better coming off the bench.”
-- Detroit Free Press
This is another example of what Chris McCosky described as overcoaching. The players have already expressed plenty of frustration with Curry. Maybe he will learn from his mistakes and improve as a coach. Unless that happens, Curry’s constant experimenting and the associated poor results can lead to only one conclusion: he is failing as a head coach.

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21 Reasons to Hope

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

The Pistons are an uninspiring 21-21 since the arrival of Allen Iverson. With pessimism spreading through Piston Nation, it’s time to run through the 21 reasons for Piston fans to be optimistic.

1. Rodney Stuckey. Stuckey is already a very good player, but he is on the fast track to stardom. The second year guard plays like a poor man’s cross between Dwyane Wade and Chauncey Billups. At the rate he’s progressing, “poor man’s” might be taken out of the analogy soon.

2. Draft Pick. The Pistons are playing just poorly enough that they might end up with a decent draft pick. When Dumars has drafted between picks 15 and 27, he has landed Tayshaun Prince, Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, and Arron Afflalo. The only pick in that range he would like to have back was the Carlos Delfino pick of 2003. This season, the Pistons will likely end up drafting in the late teens.

3. Reduced Wear and Tear. The Piston veterans have experienced grueling playoff runs each of the past seven seasons. An extended summer vacation may help revitalize them for future seasons.

4. April Will Matter. For the first since 2003, the Pistons might actually play April games that impact their playoff position. Only once since 2003 has an Eastern conference team finished fewer than five games away from the Pistons in the standings. The exception was 2007, when the Pistons finished three games ahead of the Cavaliers.

5. Joe Dumars. In Joe We (Should) Trust. He has been phenomenal as the general manager in Detroit. Even when he has made a mistake, he has been quick to compensate with a brilliant maneuver. If anyone can fix this mess, it is Dumars.

6. Iverson’s Days are Numbered. All-Star Allen Iverson has said he plans to test the free agent market this summer. That seems like a good idea, since the Pistons surely will not want to retain him. Aside from the possibility of addition by subtraction, this seems like a perfect opportunity for Bill Simmons’ “Ewing Theory” to strike.

7. Cap Space. When Iverson leaves, cap space will arrive. The last three times Dumars made serious plays in free agency, he landed Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess, and Nazr Mohammad. Two for three is a light years better than most organizations perform with free agent money.

8. Experimenting. Michael Curry has changed starting lineups and rotations more times than I’d care to remember. While that may have had disastrous effects on the team’s performance thus far, logic suggests that if he continues to test new ideas, eventually something should work. Maybe he should try benching Iverson.

9. Jason Maxiell. The “Baby Eater” is under contract through 2013. That gives him plenty of time to consume babies and do things like this.

10. No Losing in the Conference Finals. This is far from a given, but it looks like the Pistons streak of ending their season with a game-six loss in the conference finals will end at three. The preseason goal was to end the streak via improvement; however the Pistons appear to be taking a different approach.

11. Underdog Status. The Pistons of old relished the underdog mentality. They used perceived disrespect as a motivational tool. The Pistons have now regained underdog status. Step two is regaining underdog intensity.

12. Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons’ iron man has been one of the elite small forwards in the NBA for the last six seasons and has shown no signs of slowing down.

13. No More Flipping the Switch. For years – specifically the last two – there was talk the Pistons would flip a proverbial switch and play hard only when motivated. The current incarnation of the Piston is not good enough to earn such reports.

14. The Coaching Can Only Improve. As far as coaching goes, it is difficult to imagine the Pistons could possibly employ someone who performs worse than Curry has so far. Curry will have to improve or he will be fired, either of which would be progress.

15. Kwame’s Out. Michael Curry recently made it clear – through words and actions – that Kwame Brown will be spending the majority of games glued to the bench. Brown appears to finally be in a role that suits his talents: fifth big man on a team that typically plays four.

16. Longer Summer. The Pistons have kept their fans busy throughout May and often into June for the past six seasons. This summer, Piston fans should have much more time to enjoy the sun.

17. Arron Afflao. “Aflac” is a keeper who should play a much bigger role next season, when fellow shooting guard Allen Iverson departs. Afflalo’s defense and outside shooting would be valuable on any team.

18. No More Arrogance. The media has been annoyed with a perceived arrogance from the Pistons in recent seasons. One way to cure arrogance is to stop winning. In that sense, the Pistons appear to be fixing one of their character flaws.

19. No More Flip. At least before the season, less Flip Saunders seemed like a good thing.

20. Fun Gossip. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey has chosen to chronicle the Pistons’ struggles like a soap opera. Over the past two weeks, he has written articles – which may or may not be factual – about Dumars trying to trade Prince, dead team spirits, players lacking confidence, and a team that has little respect or trust in its coach. His sources are anonymous and his credibility is waning, but there is some entertainment value.

21. Amir Johnson. The 21st reason for Pistons fans to be optimistic is the continued development of one of basketball’s most talented 21-year olds. The young forward is already a game charger on the glass and with his defense. There are questions about his offense, but with time and opportunity, he might be better on that end than some anticipate.

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Midseason Report Card (Part I)

Friday, January 23, 2009

At 24-17 the Pistons have reached the mid-point of their season. That means it is time for midseason grades. Grades are based upon how well players have performed relative to expectations thus far in the 2008-2009 season. Today I’ll take a look at the starters. Check back this weekend to see grades for the reserves.

Starters

Rodney Stuckey: After a promising rookie season, there was hope that Stuckey would emerge as an elite backup for the Pistons. He struggled to find his rhythym during the first few weeks of the season, but he finished November strong and has not looked back. Stuckey earned a promotion to the starting lineup in December and he has risen to the challenge. The second year guard leads the Pistons in PER and has greatly improved his jump shot and his defense since his rookie season. Stuckey appears to be on the fast track to stardom. Grade: A-

Allen Iverson: Iverson came over in the much-discussed trade for Chauncey Billups. While it was clear that Iverson could not match Billups’ ability to defend or run an offense, the hope was that Iverson would be a superior scorer. So far, that has not materialized. Iverson is playing more minutes per game and taking more shots per game than Billups, but is averaging fewer points per game thanks to a huge disparity in true shooting percentage (59.1% for Billups, 51.0% for Iverson). Iverson has hit some huge shots (vs. OKC, at LAC) but also has missed his share of potentially game-altering shots (at POR, vs. CHA). Overall, Iverson has been a disappointment, but there is a chance he will begin to play better with the new lineup that should give him more opportunities to score. Grade: D+

Tayshaun Prince: When Prince was forced to play out of position at power forward, he struggled mightily. Thankfully, he has been returned to small forward. In the games that Prince has played small forward so far this season, he has been awesome. With Billups gone, Prince has emerged as the best player on the Pistons this season. Had he spent the entire season at small forward, there is a good chance he would be an all-star. He still has an outside chance to make the team if the East squad catches the injury bug. Grade: A-

Amir Johnson: Johnson’s minutes have yo-yoed up and down all season. Likewise, his production has been wildly inconsistent. He began the season as a starter and played fairly well as the starting line’s garbage man. Johnson was then moved to the bench in favor of Kwame Brown and his minutes and production both fell off – save for a strong three-game stretch to end November. Johnson was squeezed out of the rotation for much of December, but when an injury to RIP Hamilton allowed Johnson to re-enter the starting unit, he responded with two weeks of great defense, strong rebounding, and far too much fouling. Eventually the foul problems began to affect his performance. He is currently mired in an ineffective rut in which he has more fouls than points in January. Johnson recently returned to the starting lineup so it should be interesting to track his continued progress. Grade: B-

Rasheed Wallace: Wallace has played lethargic basketball for years, but he taken that to a new level this season. To say that Wallace appears to be going through the motions offensively would be generous. Occasionally he decides to saunter into the post, but more often he sets a screen or two and then drifts behind the three point line for the remainder of the possession. Wallace is an effective long-range shooter and he plays sturdy defense, but with a little intensity he could do so much more. Grade: B-

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Fastbreak Buckets 1.14.09

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

-Amir Johnson can have a major impact on games when he is on the floor. If he plans to spend significant time on the court, he needs to learn how to avoid fouling. Johnson has been fouling at an obscene rate the last few weeks; he has at least four fouls in each of the 10 games since Christmas despite averaging just 21.1 minutes per game in that stretch. He has averaged one foul per 4.6 minutes of game time. The foul problems reached a new extreme this week when he committed ten fouls in 18 minutes during the last two games. Johnson’s production has also fallen off during the stretch, partly because early foul trouble has taken away from his aggressiveness.

Johnson needs to stop biting on pump fakes from potential jump shooters. Players like Tayshaun Prince and Tim Duncan have shown that one can play effective defense by closing out on shooters without jumping to block the shot. Johnson needs to take a page out of Duncan’s book and simply dare players to shoot over him. Johnson also has developed a bad habit of bumping players as they attempt to drive toward the basket. He needs to learn how to say in front of his man without making contact. Lastly, Johnson needs to do a better job of setting his feet on screens as to avoid the offensive foul and turnover associated with a moving screen.

-I have spent most of my recent posts discussing the starting lineup. Just to be clear on how many minutes I want each Piston playing, here is my ideal breakdown of minutes, by position. This breakdown only applies to close games when everyone is healthy.

  • PG: Stuckey: 36, Iverson: 12 (with Prince serving as point forward)
  • SG: Hamilton: 18, Iverson: 18, Afflalo: 12
  • SF: Prince: 34, Hamilton: 14
  • PF: Johnson: 20, Maxiell: 18, McDyess: 10
  • C: Wallace: 30, McDyess:14, Brown: 4

Total minutes per player: Stuckey: 36, Iverson: 30, Hamitlon: 32, Afflalo: 12, Prince: 34, Johnson: 20, Maxiell: 18, McDyess: 24, Wallace: 30, Brown: 4. Will Bynum and Walter Herrmann would play in garbage time or if other players are hurt, playing poorly, or in foul trouble.

-Many Piston fans have been begging for a RIP Hamilton trade lately. While the move would alleviate the glut at shooting guard this season, the long term ramifications would be negative. Iverson is a one year rental, so if the Pistons trade Hamilton, they would be looking for a shooting guard this summer. Before his injury, Hamilton played well alongside Stuckey. He and Stuckey should be the backcourt of the future in Detroit.

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Learning in Victory (Part I)

Sunday, January 4, 2009

The Pistons have been hit by the injury bug. RIP Hamilton sat out the fourth quarter against Oklahoma City and missed the subsequent five games. Rasheed Wallace has been out for the past two and a half games. Antonio McDyess sat out two games and then played through two injuries against the Clippers. Thanks in large part to a soft schedule, the Pistons have won seven straight despite the depleted roster. With several prominent players out of the rotation, many players have had an opportunity to take on additional responsibilities. As a result, Michael Curry should have learned a few things about his team.

-Even a banged up Piston squad is good enough to beat the NBA’s doormats. While a seven-game win streak is impressive regardless of the opponents, the Pistons owe the schedule-makers a belated Christmas gift. During the winning streak, Detroit played one very good team – Orlando – and faced a hot Milwaukee on the road. The other five games were against teams that range from sub-par to pitiful. Five of the seven games were home games for the Pistons.

-Amir Johnson belongs on the court and Curry knows it. After the win against the Clippers, Curry said that he told Johnson that he no longer wants him on the court; he needs him on the court. As evidence, Curry pointed out that in the first half, when Johnson barely played due to foul trouble, the Clippers made over 50% of their field goals and scored 52 points. In the second half, when Johnson was on the court most of the time, the Clippers made less than 30% of their shots and were limited to 33 points.

Johnson saw little game action in the first seven games after the return of McDyess. In the eighth, against Oklahoma City, Johnson entered the game with the Pistons trailing by one late in the third quarter. He sparked a Pistons surge in that game and has seen significant minutes in each of the five subsequent games. Not coincidentally, the Pistons have won all six. Johnson is averaging 6.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game on 62.5% shooting in the last five games, but his contribution goes beyond the box score. Johnson has done a great job protecting the paint and defending the pick and roll. The Pistons have outscored their opponents by 27 points with Johnson on the court over the last six games.

Johnson struggles to create his own shot and, according to Curry, often makes mental mistakes on the floor; however, he does so many positive things defensively and on the glass that he warrants heavy minutes. Johnson’s unique combination of size and athleticism allows him to positively influence games despite his limitations.

Check back for Part II of what the Pistons can learn from their winning streak.

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RIP Assists from the Trainer’s Room

Sunday, December 28, 2008

The Pistons may have caught the best injury break of the season yesterday. A groin injury forced RIP Hamilton out of the lineup and allowed Amir Johnson to start in his place. While Hamilton’s injury is not considered serious, the ramifications could have a huge positive impact on the Piston’s season.

In yesterday’s post, I argued that reverting to a more traditional lineup would be beneficial for the Pistons. The case for a more traditional lineup centered on the improved rebounding and defense that a bigger lineup would provide.

In the eight games that the Pistons played small ball, they were outrebounded by an average of 5.6 rebounds per game. Last night, with Johnson starting, the Pistons won the board war by nine. The Pistons also played one of their best defensive games of the season, allowing the Bucks to score just 76 points on 30.4% shooting.

Milwaukee has a solid team and the Bucks were favored in last night’s contest. Thanks in large part to Johnson, the Pistons had a victory locked up by the end of the third quarter. Johnson had 11 rebounds – including 5 on the offensive end – and blocked four shots on the night.

Based on the way that Johnson has played in the last two games, Michael Curry has no choice but to drastically increase Johnson’s minutes. If Hamilton’s injury forced Curry to realize the value of a player like Amir Johnson, it may very well have been a blessing in disguise.

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Small Ball Leads to Bad Basketball

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Eight games ago, the Pistons brought Antonio McDyess back onto the roster. McDyess essentially replaced Kwame Brown in the rotation and has provided a huge upgrade. Despite the improvement of the team’s second big man, the Pistons have not played any better in the last eight games than they did earlier in the season. The Pistons are 5-3 in that stretch, but only one win was by more than six points and the team played an extremely soft schedule.

There are other reasons the Pistons should have played well during that stretch. The team is more than a month into the alleged transition to life with Allen Iverson. Also, Rodney Stuckey has played the best basketball of his career recently. Despite all of the factors working in the Pistons’ favor, the team has continued to play mediocre basketball.

The culprit is a simple one: small ball. On the same day that McDyess returned to the team, Michael Curry altered the starting lineup to include Rodney Stuckey in place of a big man. While Stuckey has excelled as a starter, the team has struggled overall. The small ball arrangement has caused numerous problems for the Pistons, almost all of which could be fixed by reverting to a traditional lineup.

The biggest challenge facing the Pistons is rebounding. The Pistons have been outrebounded in every single game that they have used the small ball lineup. They have been outrebounded by an average of 5.6 rebounds per game during the eight-game stretch. Tayshaun Prince has done his part, grabbing 8.6 boards a game since moving to power forward. The problems arise with the rest of the frontcourt. RIP Hamilton has grabbed three rebounds per game over the last eight games. That production was fine when he played shooting guard, but will not cut it at forward. Rasheed Wallace inexplicably stopped rebounding after Thanksgiving. He averaged 9.5 rebounds per game in the team’s first 13 games, but has pulled down just 5.4 boards per game in the 14 game since the holiday.

The Pistons were a fairly average rebounding team before the switch to small ball. Extrapolated over a full season, their rebounding performance over the past eight games would place them amongst the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. The switch to small ball transformed the Pistons from a decent rebounding team into a horrible one.

Another mess created by small ball has occurred on the defensive end. With the current starting lineup, the Pistons face size mismatches at various positions against virtually every team in the league. Prince is not big enough to guard most power forwards. Against Utah, Prince was abused in the post by Mehmet Okur. Hamilton faces similar problems when the team plays bigger small forwards such as Danny Granger, who dropped 42 points against Detroit. The Pistons have enough defensive issues when Iverson tries to guard anyone. The last thing Michael Curry needed to do was compound the problem by playing three starters out of position.

The other major dilemma posed by small ball is the distribution of minutes. The Pistons cannot start Prince at power forward if they hope to play Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson significant minutes. Maxiell and Johnson are the team’s only talented young big men. Both are quality NBA players now and are a major part of the team’s future. Curry is doing a major disservice to the franchise if he squeezes either of those players out of the rotation.

Johnson did not play in six of the first seven games of the small ball era. Last night, he checked into the game late in the third quarter last night, with the Pistons trailing by one. Johnson immediately started contesting shots and crashing the boards. His energy helped trigger a 24-9 run. Iverson was exceptional during the stretch and was able to be aggressive because he played alongside Johnson and Afflalo, players who defend, hustle, and do not need the ball to contribute. Curry left the lineup in the game even after it appeared to run out of gas and the results were not pretty. However, it was obvious from that sequence that Amir Johnson needs to play and that his game complements Iverson’s.

In a way, Michael Curry’s hand has been forced by the make-up of his roster. With Iverson, Hamilton, and Prince, the Pistons have three all-star talents for two positions on the wing. It is the coach’s responsibility to determine which of those players is best-suited for a bench role and then convince that player that an individual sacrifice will benefit the team. Ideally, the Pistons should bench Iverson in favor Johnson or Maxiell.

The Pistons are drifting through the regular season. They play well some nights, but poorly on far too many. Most NBA teams would love to have the talent that the Pistons boast. Those other teams would probably be wise enough to deploy that talent correctly.

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The Change We Need

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

There is a lot to like about Michael Curry. He’s straightforward with the media and apparently the same way with his players. He is committed to rewarding strong play and does a decent job of making players earn their minutes. Curry does not over-substitute; he instead uses regular substitution patterns that usually make sense. He is also patient with his players and, as a result, is less hesitant that most coaches to play young players who might make mistakes, but deserve minutes based on their talent and production.

With that out of the way, it is time he earns his keep in this league. The Pistons have lost three consecutive games against teams that range from mediocre to horrible. Since the day Curry was hired, he has preached accountability. The most significant difference between Curry and Flip Saunders is that Curry is supposed to have the respect of his players. If he truly has complete command over his troops, he needs to force one of his stars to swallow his pride and accept a role off the bench.

At the time of the Iverson trade, Curry claimed he had no fear of handling Iverson. He also has stated that he will reward strong play and make decisions that put this team in a position to succeed. With Iverson starting in a small ball arrangement, his actions appear to contradict his words.

Iverson is one of the greatest scorers to ever play the game and is still one of the better scorers in the NBA. He is not, however, a good fit for the Piston’s starting lineup. Iverson excels on offense and struggles mightily on defense. With Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace entrenched in the starting lineup, the Pistons have plenty of scoring. On the other end of the court, Iverson’s lack of size and poor focus make him a liability. He has been regularly abused by opposing point guards since coming to Detroit. Also, the current arrangement forces the rest of the starting unit to play out of position and face a size mismatch on a routine basis.

The solution is a simple one, provided that Curry actually has authority over of his players. The Pistons need to start Amir Johnson instead of Iverson. This change would solve a number of problems currently plaguing the team. One major improvement would occur on defense, where Amir would help protect the paint, rebound, and allow each of the starters to return to defending players who play their position. The Pistons would no longer be undersized against most teams and their weakest defender would be off the court to start the game.

A second benefit of the switch would be a better distribution of shot opportunities. The Pistons two best scorers are Iverson and Hamilton. By playing the two at the same time they cut into each other’s shot attempts. Also, when the Pistons go to their second unit, neither of the team’s top scoring threats is in the game. While there should still be plenty of occasions where Iverson and Hamilton are on the floor together, the Pistons should try to minimize instances where both are out of the game.

An improved distribution of minutes would also result from the switch away from small ball. The fact that Johnson and Jason Maxiell did not play against Washington is inexcusable. Each player deserves at least 15 minutes per contest. By starting Johnson, his minutes would obviously increase. Iverson would likely see a slight drop in minutes, but he could still expect to play at least 30 minutes per game. As for Maxiell, Curry made a poor decision against Washington when he played Hermann at power forward while Maxiell sat in his warm-ups. Hermann has a sweet stroke from the perimeter and plays hard, but he is nowhere near the player that Maxiell is defensively or on the glass. Another advantage of the switch is that the Pistons could use Iverson and Afflalo as their backup guards, thus returning Will Bynum to his situational role. By reducing the minutes that Iverson, Hermann, and Bynum play, there should be plenty of opportunities for Maxiell and Johnson to see the court.

If the Pistons elect to start Johnson instead of Iverson, it would be easy for Curry to develop a stable nine man rotation. He would start Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Johnson, and Wallace, while Iverson, Afflalo, Maxiell, and McDyess would see the bulk of the minutes off the bench. Bynum, Hermann, and Kwame Brown would each be placed in specialist roles where they only play if match-ups, foul trouble, or poor play from other players dictate that they belong on the court. The aforementioned rotation would allow Iverson to take his shots alongside backups who do not need the ball, it would improve the team’s defense throughout the game, and it would be a step toward making sure that the Pistons no longer lose three consecutive games against weak competition.

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Welcome to Count That Baby And A Foul. I am an obsessed Piston fan with a passion for sports journalism. Here at CTBAAF, I intend to offer opinions on the Pistons and the NBA as a whole.

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