Catching Up: Dumars Says “No” to Rajon Rondo

Reports circulated last week that the Pistons turned down a Celtic offer of Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen for Rodney Stuckey, RIP Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons apparently rejected the deal without much hesitation, but the deal is much too appealing to have merited such little consideration.

The current Piston roster is nowhere near contention. Adding Ben Gordon and either Carlos Boozer or Charlie Villanueva (a likely summer plan for Joe Dumars) would put the Pistons in the playoffs, but leave the team well short of beating Cleveland or Orlando. The aforementioned players are all poor defenders and neither Stuckey nor Hamilton would do much to compensate.

Part of the appeal to the deal would be the Pistons’ ability to upgrade from Stuckey to Rondo at point guard. While Stuckey has the potential to be a star, Rondo is already there. Both point guards are 23, but Rondo’s PER was four points higher last season. Rondo is also among the best defensive guards in the world.

The other benefit of the trade would be financial. This may be a tough pill for Piston fans to swallow, but given the right offer, the Pistons should jump at an opportunity to rid themselves of two players, Hamilton and Prince, set to earn big bucks in their 30s. Hamilton is 31 while Prince will turn 30 this season. Hamilton and Prince are on the payroll for roughly 23 million combined in 2011, followed by 12.65 million per season for Hamilton through 2013. Meanwhile, Ray Allen’s contract expires in 2010.

Maintaining the status quo ensures a half-hearted push toward relevance for the next few seasons while Hamilton and Prince fade toward retirement. The prescient move would be to aim for long-term success and shoot for an even higher ceiling. Removing the remaining overpaid players from the previous era would be a necessary step to do so. The Pistons would have to give Rondo a contract extension beginning in the 2011 season – a season in which Stuckey will still be on his rookie contract – but the overall financial ramifications of the deal would still strongly favor the Pistons.

Assuming the Pistons give Rondo a contract extension of roughly 12 million per season, the Pistons would create roughly 15 million dollars in additional cap space for the summer of 2010. Through this trade, the Pistons would have Rondo, whichever free agents they acquire this summer, and enough cap space to be a serious player in the much-ballyhooed summer of 2010. With the right maneuvering, Dumars could forge a foundation that could contend into the next decade.

While the deal appears attractive on the surface, there are legitimate concerns on Detroit’s end. There have been questions about Rajon Rondo’s character. Pairing him with Michael Curry may not be a smart fit, as Curry did a poor job managing difficult personalities last season. Also, for the deal to be worthwhile, the Pistons will have to find a player willing to take their money and worthy of earning it on the free agent market.

While the above concerns are legitimate, the Pistons need to at least be open to any and all possibilities for reshaping the roster. For the Pistons to return to elite status, Dumars must either drastically overhaul the roster or add a superstar. Swapping perimeter players with Boston accomplishes the former and puts the team in position to achieve the latter during the summer of 2010.

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21 Reasons to Hope

The Pistons are an uninspiring 21-21 since the arrival of Allen Iverson. With pessimism spreading through Piston Nation, it’s time to run through the 21 reasons for Piston fans to be optimistic.

1. Rodney Stuckey. Stuckey is already a very good player, but he is on the fast track to stardom. The second year guard plays like a poor man’s cross between Dwyane Wade and Chauncey Billups. At the rate he’s progressing, “poor man’s” might be taken out of the analogy soon.

2. Draft Pick. The Pistons are playing just poorly enough that they might end up with a decent draft pick. When Dumars has drafted between picks 15 and 27, he has landed Tayshaun Prince, Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, and Arron Afflalo. The only pick in that range he would like to have back was the Carlos Delfino pick of 2003. This season, the Pistons will likely end up drafting in the late teens.

3. Reduced Wear and Tear. The Piston veterans have experienced grueling playoff runs each of the past seven seasons. An extended summer vacation may help revitalize them for future seasons.

4. April Will Matter. For the first since 2003, the Pistons might actually play April games that impact their playoff position. Only once since 2003 has an Eastern conference team finished fewer than five games away from the Pistons in the standings. The exception was 2007, when the Pistons finished three games ahead of the Cavaliers.

5. Joe Dumars. In Joe We (Should) Trust. He has been phenomenal as the general manager in Detroit. Even when he has made a mistake, he has been quick to compensate with a brilliant maneuver. If anyone can fix this mess, it is Dumars.

6. Iverson’s Days are Numbered. All-Star Allen Iverson has said he plans to test the free agent market this summer. That seems like a good idea, since the Pistons surely will not want to retain him. Aside from the possibility of addition by subtraction, this seems like a perfect opportunity for Bill Simmons’ “Ewing Theory” to strike.

7. Cap Space. When Iverson leaves, cap space will arrive. The last three times Dumars made serious plays in free agency, he landed Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess, and Nazr Mohammad. Two for three is a light years better than most organizations perform with free agent money.

8. Experimenting. Michael Curry has changed starting lineups and rotations more times than I’d care to remember. While that may have had disastrous effects on the team’s performance thus far, logic suggests that if he continues to test new ideas, eventually something should work. Maybe he should try benching Iverson.

9. Jason Maxiell. The “Baby Eater” is under contract through 2013. That gives him plenty of time to consume babies and do things like this.

10. No Losing in the Conference Finals. This is far from a given, but it looks like the Pistons streak of ending their season with a game-six loss in the conference finals will end at three. The preseason goal was to end the streak via improvement; however the Pistons appear to be taking a different approach.

11. Underdog Status. The Pistons of old relished the underdog mentality. They used perceived disrespect as a motivational tool. The Pistons have now regained underdog status. Step two is regaining underdog intensity.

12. Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons’ iron man has been one of the elite small forwards in the NBA for the last six seasons and has shown no signs of slowing down.

13. No More Flipping the Switch. For years – specifically the last two – there was talk the Pistons would flip a proverbial switch and play hard only when motivated. The current incarnation of the Piston is not good enough to earn such reports.

14. The Coaching Can Only Improve. As far as coaching goes, it is difficult to imagine the Pistons could possibly employ someone who performs worse than Curry has so far. Curry will have to improve or he will be fired, either of which would be progress.

15. Kwame’s Out. Michael Curry recently made it clear – through words and actions – that Kwame Brown will be spending the majority of games glued to the bench. Brown appears to finally be in a role that suits his talents: fifth big man on a team that typically plays four.

16. Longer Summer. The Pistons have kept their fans busy throughout May and often into June for the past six seasons. This summer, Piston fans should have much more time to enjoy the sun.

17. Arron Afflao. “Aflac” is a keeper who should play a much bigger role next season, when fellow shooting guard Allen Iverson departs. Afflalo’s defense and outside shooting would be valuable on any team.

18. No More Arrogance. The media has been annoyed with a perceived arrogance from the Pistons in recent seasons. One way to cure arrogance is to stop winning. In that sense, the Pistons appear to be fixing one of their character flaws.

19. No More Flip. At least before the season, less Flip Saunders seemed like a good thing.

20. Fun Gossip. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey has chosen to chronicle the Pistons’ struggles like a soap opera. Over the past two weeks, he has written articles – which may or may not be factual – about Dumars trying to trade Prince, dead team spirits, players lacking confidence, and a team that has little respect or trust in its coach. His sources are anonymous and his credibility is waning, but there is some entertainment value.

21. Amir Johnson. The 21st reason for Pistons fans to be optimistic is the continued development of one of basketball’s most talented 21-year olds. The young forward is already a game charger on the glass and with his defense. There are questions about his offense, but with time and opportunity, he might be better on that end than some anticipate.

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The Answer: Fewer Dumb Shots

82games.com has done some very cool stat tracking in recent years. One of the stat breakdowns within shooting stats is a breakdown of shooting by shot clock situation. This is useful for a variety of reasons.

First off, one can compare teams and learn about their tendencies. For example, the open court, Mike D’Antoni led Knicks take 37 percent of their shots during the first ten seconds of the shot clock. The Pistons, in contrast, take only 33 percent of their shots during the first ten seconds of the shot clock. Based on effective field goal percentage* (eFG%), the Knicks have been much more successful than the Pistons on those early shots. On the other hand, the Pistons have been more efficient with their half court offense. The results are evident in the stats, which show that the Pistons have a higher eFG% in the later part of the shot clock.

The other benefit of the stat breakdown is that it conveys information about individual players. A player like Tayshaun Prince may appear to be a poor shooter based on a sub-par eFG%, but when one digs a little deeper, a different story is told. Prince takes 28% of his shots during the last four seconds of the shot clock – an incredibly high amount – and converts those shots at a 43.2 eFG%. What this means is that Prince is often called upon to bail the Pistons out at the end of the shot clock and he does a very good job of doing just that. It also shows how Prince can be one of the best offensive players on the Pistons despite a middling effective field goal percentage.

On the other end of the spectrum is Allen Iverson. The shot clock usage shooting breakdowns for the Pistons and for Allen Iverson are below.




What this shows is that Iverson is taking a high percentage of his shots – 36 percent – early in the shot clock. However, Iverson has been horribly inefficient with those shots. Typically, players only take shots in the early part of the shot clock if they have a layup, dunk, or wide open look. As a result, most players have an early shot clock eFG% in the fifties, if not higher. Amir Johnson, for example, has made 69.4 percent of the shots he has taken in the first ten seconds of the shot clock. Excluding Iverson, the Pistons have roughly a 56 eFG% on shots early in the shot clock.

Iverson’s mark of 40.6% is simply unacceptable. He is clearly taking far too many difficult shots early in the shot clock. This is not a fluke based upon a small sample size either; Iverson has taken well over 200 shots early in the shot clock. He needed to make about 40 more of those in order to post an eFG% on par with the rest of his team.

In the first ten seconds of the shot clock, a player still has time to kick the ball out to a point guard and run a play. Through a play, the Pistons are almost certainly capable of creating a far better shot than one that yields only a 40.6 eFG%. The fact that Iverson has opted to take such a high quantity of low percentage shots implies selfish play.

The usually astute Kelly Dwyer noted on Monday that the Pistons are struggling this season:

And Detroit, whatever it is, they just don't have it. This team continues to lose, even when it plays well, even when the whole team is interested.
…
You can't blame this on Allen Iverson. Don't even start. Detroit's issues run far deeper than that.

He argues that all of the Pistons problems cannot be pinned on Iverson. Maybe so, but it surely does not help that the team’s highest paid player and supposed offensive whiz is killing the team with horrendous decision making and ineffective shooting.

*Effective Field Goal Percentage equals (FG+0.5*3P)/FGA. The statistic adjusts field goal percentage to account for the additional value of a made three pointer.
(Thanks to 82games.com and Basketball-Reference.com for stats, tables, and formulas)

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Fastbreak Buckets 1.27.09

Today’s edition of fastbreak buckets is a blockquote special.

-Interesting tidbit in the Monday’s Boston Globe. (H/T TrueHoop)

[Ray] Allen started wearing [a sleeve] when he was in a horrific slump during the Detroit series last spring. He wears the sleeve on just his left arm - sort of like Michael Jackson without the creepiness.
"Rip Hamilton grew his fingernails long and he was scratching me," explained Allen. "I needed the sleeve to shield me from those nails. And I've stayed with it."

Those are the type of tactics that earn a player “wily veteran” status from his fans and “dirty player” labels from his opponents. One thing that cannot be questioned is RIP’s willingness to do whatever it takes to win.

-Anonymous scouts are to sports what tabloids are to pop culture. They can both create unsubstantiated nonsense which appears as fact in print. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey, who usually does a much better job with his NBA coverage, had two quotes worth of anonymous rubbish in his Sunday column. (H/T Need4Sheed)

"[The Pistons] are playing with no emotion," says a long-distance viewer. Allen Iverson "has killed the team's spirit with his style of play."

I have noticed an inefficient offense, inconsistent defense, and poor coaching, but if a “long-distance viewer” can detect a dead spirit, maybe he knows something the rest of us do not.

So hooked on economics is Dumars, an agent testifies, he was prepared to deal treasured Tayshaun Prince for Stephen Jackson (or maybe it was Ron Artest) whose contract was set to terminate after next season.

It was one thing for the Pistons to trade Billups for cap space in an attempt to balance the roster; the Pistons had two quality point guards in Billups and Stuckey, but needed frontcourt help. Dumars elected to trade Billups for impending cap room which he will try to use to lure a big man, thus balancing the roster. Prince is a completely separate issue. If the Pistons were to trade Prince for cap room, they would have cap room and a major hole at small forward to fill. They would probably have to use that cap room to sign a small forward – probably a small forward very much like Prince. Dumars chimed in with his thoughts on the assertion.

"That's absolutely false! I'm not trading Prince, period," Dumars fumed.

-Piston players have made some disturbing comment about their coach recently.

Iverson, to The Detroit News, on the Pistons’ poor defense against Houston:

"Have you talked to MC yet?" Allen Iverson asked, referring to coach Michael Curry. "He should have the answers. He knows better than me why we're not getting it done."
…
"If it looked like we were playing a zone, and we weren't, that's not good," Iverson said.

More from Iverson in today's Detroit News.

"I would be lying if I said I wasn't frustrated," Iverson said. "I just feel like I can offer more to the team. I can do more to help us win games, and when that opportunity presents itself, I will be right here to take the challenge."

Tayshaun Prince hinted at displeasure with the coaching staff in this Detroit News article. He said the Pistons need to stop worrying about coaching schemes and simply play better. Reading between the lines, if they need to stop worrying about coaching schemes, that implies that players currently are worrying about coaching schemes.

"At some point you have to put all that aside and not worry about the X's and O's and just do what you have to do defensively as far as taking a challenge. I don't think we are doing that in the first quarters."
…
"It's tough because you would think at this point we would have found our way and we haven't," Prince said.

Rasheed Wallace was slightly less subtle than Prince when he spoke with The Detroit News.

"I guess you can say we were confused early," said Rasheed Wallace, who voiced his displeasure to Curry twice early in the game. "We figured it out in the second half but by then it was too late."

Wallace on his lack of fourth quarter touches against Houston after scoring ten points in the third quarter.

"It wasn't my call," Wallace said. "Just got to go with the flow, I guess."

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Who Should Close? (Non-Tigers Edition)

Now that the Pistons seem to have settled on a starting lineup, Michael Curry faces an even more important question: which five players will be on the court to finish close games? In the first three games since Curry moved Hamilton to the bench, the outcome of the game has dictated the finishing lineup for him. The games against Toronto and Dallas were not close in the fourth quarter and the closing lineup was irrelevant. In the game against Houston, the Pistons trailed by 15 in the fourth quarter, so when the score tightened up, Curry elected to stick with the players who led the comeback.

Should the Pistons play a close game sometime in the near future, Curry will face an interesting dilemma. Two players – Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess – appear to be safe. They are the team’s best interior players and Curry values their defense, rebounding, and outside shooting.

The remaining three positions are less clear. Tayshaun Prince is the team’s best perimeter defender and probably its best overall player. He almost definitely should be in the game down the stretch.

RIP Hamilton has been the focus of the Pistons’ offense down the stretch for the past several years. Among returning Pistons, he was by far the most effective clutch* performer last season. Curry also promised Hamilton roughly 30 minutes per game. Hamilton has been entering games roughly nine minutes into each half, so he has to be on the floor the entire second and fourth quarters in order to reach the aforementioned 30-minute mark.

Allen Iverson has been the go-to guy down the stretch for the Pistons most of this year. He was acquired because of his ability to break down a defense – precisely the type of skill that is most useful at the end of close games, when defenses tighten up.

Rodney Stuckey is the best point guard on the team. He also appears to be the centerpiece Joe Dumars would like to build the team around. Since the Pistons seem to be making moves with an eye toward the future, the team needs to ensure that its youngest star gains experience in clutch situations.

Prince, Hamilton, Iverson, and Stuckey all have very compelling cases to be on the court when the game is on the line. There is no easy answer for Curry. As far as egos are concerned, the safest option – benching Stuckey – may very well be the worst option. Part of the reason the Pistons traded Chauncey Billups was that the team wanted Stuckey to take the reins of the franchise and receive on the job training. It would be foolish of the Pistons to expand Stuckey’s role, only to make him watch the most important moments of a game from the bench.

The strategy that makes the most sense is for Curry to ride the hot hand between Iverson and Hamilton. Whichever shooting guard is having a better game should earn the opportunity to finish the game. If either Stuckey or Prince is way off his game, there are situations where the struggling player should sit, however those two players are able to impact a game in so many ways that it would be difficult to take either out of a close game.

Neither Iverson or Hamilton will like the fact that they will occasionally be seated during crunch time. Hopefully they will understand that if the Pistons are going to accomplish something they have not done often lately – win – they need a balanced lineup that only has room for one of them on the court.

*Clutch is defined by 82games.com as any point in the 4th quarter or overtime where there is less than five minutes left and neither team is ahead by more than five points

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Midseason Report Card (Part I)

At 24-17 the Pistons have reached the mid-point of their season. That means it is time for midseason grades. Grades are based upon how well players have performed relative to expectations thus far in the 2008-2009 season. Today I’ll take a look at the starters. Check back this weekend to see grades for the reserves.

Starters

Rodney Stuckey: After a promising rookie season, there was hope that Stuckey would emerge as an elite backup for the Pistons. He struggled to find his rhythym during the first few weeks of the season, but he finished November strong and has not looked back. Stuckey earned a promotion to the starting lineup in December and he has risen to the challenge. The second year guard leads the Pistons in PER and has greatly improved his jump shot and his defense since his rookie season. Stuckey appears to be on the fast track to stardom. Grade: A-

Allen Iverson: Iverson came over in the much-discussed trade for Chauncey Billups. While it was clear that Iverson could not match Billups’ ability to defend or run an offense, the hope was that Iverson would be a superior scorer. So far, that has not materialized. Iverson is playing more minutes per game and taking more shots per game than Billups, but is averaging fewer points per game thanks to a huge disparity in true shooting percentage (59.1% for Billups, 51.0% for Iverson). Iverson has hit some huge shots (vs. OKC, at LAC) but also has missed his share of potentially game-altering shots (at POR, vs. CHA). Overall, Iverson has been a disappointment, but there is a chance he will begin to play better with the new lineup that should give him more opportunities to score. Grade: D+

Tayshaun Prince: When Prince was forced to play out of position at power forward, he struggled mightily. Thankfully, he has been returned to small forward. In the games that Prince has played small forward so far this season, he has been awesome. With Billups gone, Prince has emerged as the best player on the Pistons this season. Had he spent the entire season at small forward, there is a good chance he would be an all-star. He still has an outside chance to make the team if the East squad catches the injury bug. Grade: A-

Amir Johnson: Johnson’s minutes have yo-yoed up and down all season. Likewise, his production has been wildly inconsistent. He began the season as a starter and played fairly well as the starting line’s garbage man. Johnson was then moved to the bench in favor of Kwame Brown and his minutes and production both fell off – save for a strong three-game stretch to end November. Johnson was squeezed out of the rotation for much of December, but when an injury to RIP Hamilton allowed Johnson to re-enter the starting unit, he responded with two weeks of great defense, strong rebounding, and far too much fouling. Eventually the foul problems began to affect his performance. He is currently mired in an ineffective rut in which he has more fouls than points in January. Johnson recently returned to the starting lineup so it should be interesting to track his continued progress. Grade: B-

Rasheed Wallace: Wallace has played lethargic basketball for years, but he taken that to a new level this season. To say that Wallace appears to be going through the motions offensively would be generous. Occasionally he decides to saunter into the post, but more often he sets a screen or two and then drifts behind the three point line for the remainder of the possession. Wallace is an effective long-range shooter and he plays sturdy defense, but with a little intensity he could do so much more. Grade: B-

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Off the High Glass: Tayshaun Prince

“Off the High Glass” is a segment on CTBAAF where I profile one of the Pistons. Today, Tayshaun Prince goes under the microscope.

Tayshaun Prince is tied with RIP Hamitlon as the longest-tenured Pistons. Prince is in his seventh season, which has been a lot like his sixth, which was a lot like his fifth, which was a lot like the two before that. For the fifth consecutive season, Prince has started every game, averaged roughly 14 points per game, posted a PER close to the league average, and played stellar defense. Prince was taken with the 23rd pick in 2002 draft. Nearly all of the teams that passed on Prince wish they could have a do-over. Among 2002 first round picks, only Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire, and Caron Butler have come close to matching Prince’s production.

Offense: Prince has one of the most diversified offensive arsenals in the NBA. Among his many strengths, he is effective running the offense, shooting three pointers, and scoring in the post. Prince has a high basketball IQ and is a proficient ball handler so the Pistons are able to use him as a point forward. This ability has been especially useful this season because Rodney Stuckey is the only reliable point guard on the roster.

However, Prince is best suited to man the wing as a forward. Prince is 6’9 and possesses exceptionally long arms which allow him to attack defenses in a variety of way. Thanks to his length and a high release point on his shot, Prince is able to shoot over almost any defender. This skill proves most useful at the end of the shot clock, when Prince is often asked to create a shot out of a busted possession. He excels at making contested jump shots as the shot clock expires.

Prince is also a valuable threat in the post. He prefers to get the ball on the right block, where he likes to dribble into the paint and take a lefty hook shot. If his defender overplays against this move, Prince will spin baseline and go to the basket. Prince is one of few players who can contribute both in the post and on the wing of a fast break attack. The Pistons have never been much of a running team, but when they do run, Prince likes to soar in for alley-oop dunks from the left side of the basket.

Prince has never averaged more than 15 points per game in a season. He is surely is capable of such a feat, but he tends to defer to his teammates and he is patient almost to a fault. When Prince catches the ball while open early in the shot clock, he often makes an exaggerated pump fake and then decides how to proceed. If his defender jumps at him, he often will absorb the contact, put up a shot, and head to the charity stripe. If the defender flies past him, Prince will either drive to the hoop, or take one dribble and rise up for a jumper. If the defender does not bite on the fake, Prince likes to back up and either set up a play or isolate against the defender. Prince would probably be best-served to simply shoot the ball a bit more frequently.

Defense: Prince is an excellent defender. He has been voted to the NBA’s 2nd All-Defense team each of the past four seasons. Again, Prince relies on his superior length and intelligence to succeed. As a result of his length, he is able to play a step behind his man while still being able to contest jump shots. Prince can guard four positions and has given fits to players like Kobe Bryant, Antawn Jamison, and Michael Redd. Just two games ago, he did a number on ex-Piston point guard Chauncey Billups down the stretch of a close Piston victory.

Despite a wiry frame, Prince is rarely outmuscled. Opponents who have had success against Prince have often had him try to guard the pick and roll. Prince does a fine job defending the play, but guarding players like LeBron James on the pick and roll without proper help is nearly impossible.

One of the best aspects of Prince’s game is that he rarely bites on pump fakes. Over the last four seasons, he has never averaged more than 1.4 fouls per game despite playing heavy minutes and usually guarding the opponent’s best scorer. Prince does not often gamble for steals, but almost always stays between his man and the basket. He does not block many shots, but the blocks he does make are often spectacular. Prince is one of the best ever at coming from behind a player to block a fast break layup or dunk. He usually times his jumps perfectly and his infamous 2004 block on Reggie Miller set the gold standard for this type of play.

Prince grabbed between 4.2 and 5.3 rebounds per game each of the past five seasons. This season, he has dramatically increased his board work. He is averaging 7.2 rebounds per game. Prince has been more committed to the glass partially because he has been asked to play power forward, but he has also rebounded better while playing small forward.

Overall: Michael Curry has been campaigning for Prince to make the all-star team for the first time in his career. However, LeBron James, Paul Pierce, Caron Butler and Danny Granger all play small forward in the East, so Curry’s mission is probably a lost cause. Prince did have his play recognized when he was named to the gold medal-winning Olympic Basketball team.

Prince does not wow with any one skill, but he is the complete package. He is cerebral on the court and was named team captain because of his poise and leadership. LeBron James is clearly the best small forward – and overall player – in basketball, but Prince is in the next tier in terms of elite small forwards. Since the trade of Billups, Prince has emerged as the Piston’s best player. He is only 28 and under contract through 2011 so expect Prince to continue to be the Piston’s do-everything small forward for several years to come.

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Learning in Victory (Part II)

-Tayshaun Prince belongs at small forward. Prince has started 24 games this season at small forward and eight at power forward. In the games Prince started at small forward, he averaged 15.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.1 turnovers while shooting 46.1% from the field, including 41.5% on 1.7 three-point attempts per game. When starting at power forward, he averaged 10.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2.1 turnovers while shooting 39.8%. When he started at power forward, he did not make a single three pointer and he took fewer than half as many free throw attempts per game. Prince is also much more effective defending small forwards than power forwards.

Prince plays power forward when the Pistons go to small ball, usually because Curry wants his three scoring guards – Stuckey, Iverson, and Hamilton – on the court together. When this happens, Prince becomes an afterthought on offense as the guards look for shots. Prince and Stuckey are the two best Pistons, so it is important that Prince is put in position to succeed. That means he should be a focal point of the offense and that he needs to play almost exclusively at small forward.

-Stuckey tracker: Stuckey has continued his assault on the league and his recent point totals have been awesome. The Pistons are now 13-3 in games that Stuckey starts. The team is 7-0 when Stuckey plays at least 37 minutes. He has averaged 17.8 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.8 rebounds on better than 50% field goal shooting as a starter.

-Kwame Brown belongs in the Elden Campbell/Dale Davis memorial “backup big man who can defend great low post scorers, but is otherwise useless.” When Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess both return to full strength, Brown should return to the bench. He does a great job defending opposing big men, but he is a liability offensively. The Pistons should play Brown when they face players like Andrew Bynum, Shaq, Al Jefferson, and Tim Duncan. Otherwise, he should be the odd man out in a four man frontcourt rotation featuring Wallace, McDyess, Johnson, and Maxiell.

-Jason Maxiell could be really good, if he were only taller. He tipped or just missed numerous rebounds and passes the past few games. Maxiell is a productive role player, but his lack of height hinders him. His inability to defend the taller Garnett killed the Pistons in last season’s playoffs. Maxiell is mediocre defensive rebounder – as opposed to a great one— because he is undersized compared to other power forwards. If Maxiell was 6’9, he would be one of the best power forwards in basketball. Instead, he is merely a very good backup.

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A Two Step Path to Contention

Since I spent my last two posts criticizing Dumars for the Iverson trade, I think that it is only fair that I offer some solutions. Plus, nothing is more fun for the average sports fan than playing “armchair GM” and coming up with preposterous trades that have no chance of actually happening. Without further ado, here is the moderately realistic plan that I propose to get the Pistons back into contention.

Step 1: Trade Tayshaun. Tayshaun Prince is probably the best and most valuable player on the Pistons. He has no real weakness compared to plenty of strengths and he always plays smart. He is a very good defender, a good long range shooter, a solid post up offensive player, and on broken plays he excels at shooting mid-range jumpers over defenders as the shot clock winds down on. Prince is a borderline all-star in his prime who, as a 28 year old with a reasonable contract, has significant trade value. It might be time for the Pistons to cash in.

When Larry Brown and Flip Saunders ran the show in Detroit, the Pistons almost exclusively used a set half court offense that relied upon timing and execution. Chauncey Billups would walk the ball up the court, the Pistons would run a play that used most of the shot clock and more often than not, the end result was a high percentage shot. Prince’s game has also been very methodical and under control. The slow, execution-based offenses were perfectly suited for his game.

Michael Curry emphasizes a very different approach to offense. Instead of asking his players to walk the ball up the court and set up a play, Curry implores his team to attack quickly. Under Curry, the Pistons are more of a fast break team that tries to take advantage of defenses that have not had time to set up entirely. This style does not suit Prince’s game and many times this season, Prince has slowed down the offense in order to get into a set reminiscent of the offenses of old. If the Pistons are to embrace Michael Curry’s ideals, Prince may have to go.

Here are three possibilities for trading Prince, listed in order of how desirable I consider each deal for the Pistons.

Trade Possibility A: Tayshaun Prince to Philadelphia for Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, Willie Green, and Jason Smith. (Trade Machine View)

Last season, the 76ers surprised pundits by making the playoffs with an inexperienced team. Over the summer, the team added Elton Brand in an attempt to solidify their defense and rebounding, while giving them a reliable offensive option in half court sets. So far, Brand is struggling to mesh with the up-tempo athletes that dominate Philly’s rotation. By swapping Young for Prince, the 76ers would add a second reliable offensive option as well as a lockdown defender who could potentially make Philly one of the elite defensive teams in the league. Prince is a much better fit alongside Brand than Young, and along with Miller and Dalembert, the 76ers would have a team much better suited to excel in the half court on both ends of the floor. By making this trade, the 76ers would be either the third or fourth best team in the East, depending on what one thinks of the Magic.

As for the Pistons, Thaddeus Young would be a perfect fit in Michael Curry’s system. The Piston lineup that has screamed “Michael Curry basketball” has included Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, RIP Hamilton, Jason Maxiell, and Amir Johnson. When those five players are on the court together, they pressure the ball, trap aggressively, and create fast break opportunities on offense. Young is a perfect fit for that style of basketball.

He is a natural small forward who is quickly developing an outside shot, but excelled in last season’s playoffs by making hustle plays and attacking the offensive glass. He is also capable of playing power forward, a position where Curry surely would utilize him in small ball lineups.

Marreese Speights is talented rookie big man whose bulk would allow him to complement either the skinny Amir Johnson or the undersized Jason Maxiell in the frontcourt. Willie Green would be able to return to Detroit, where he grew up, although he has proven to be a marginal player with an unfriendly long term contract that the Sixers would love to dump. Jason Smith showed promise as a rookie, but his career has been derailed by a devastating knee injury. He would be included in the deal strictly for salary cap reasons. If the Pistons struggle this season and Young continues to develop, Speights may need to be taken out of the trade in order for Philadelphia to accept.

Trade Possibility B: Tayshaun Prince to the Lakers for Trevor Ariza, Jordan Farmar, Chris Mihm, and a spare part signed for 1.05 million TBD. (Trade Machine View)

The Lakers would add another star to their already impressive starting lineup. The Lakers, Celtics, and Cavaliers are the three elite teams in the NBA this season and this trade would be just what the Lakers need to push themselves ahead of the class. A seven man core of Fisher, Bryant, Prince, Gasol, Bynum, Vujacic, and Odom would be as good as any the NBA has seen in a long time. While the Lakers are enamored with Farmar and Ariza, the opportunity to replace Radmanovic with Prince in the starting lineup should be too enticing to pass up.

Detroit would add two players who fit Michael Curry’s system perfectly. Ariza is the type of aggressive athlete Curry covets and – with the exception of the three point shot – would provide many of the same skills as Young. Farmar would be a perfect backup to Stuckey at point guard and the two could also play together. Mihm is merely being included for salary cap reasons.

Trade Possibility C: Tayshaun Prince to Utah for CJ Miles, Ronnie Price, Kosta Koufos, and Matt Harpring. (Trade Machine View)

I’m not certain if that deal can work as presently constructed due to Miles’ base year compensation status, but spare parts can be included if needed. The deal makes obvious sense for Utah. They have been looking for a star player to man one of the wing positions for years and Prince would fit the bill. He would essentially take up the minutes that Miles and Harpring combine to play and would provide a major upgrade for the Jazz. Brevin Knight is more than capable of taking over backup point guard duties from Price, while Koufos is a project that Utah can afford to sacrifice.

On the Pistons side of the things, this deal would bolster the team’s depth at the expense of its star power. Miles had a breakout season last year and has been ever better this season. He is a solid all around player at small forward and should develop into an above average starter. Price is a serviceable backup point guard, which is a position the Pistons will need to fill after Iverson is let go and Stuckey moves into the starting unit. Price and Miles do not add up to fair value for Prince, so including Koufos would be a must if Dumars is to accept. Harping has been a very good role player throughout the decade, but with Prince, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver and Andrei Kirilenko manning the wings, Utah would have little need for his tough play. His contract needs to be included for the contracts to match up.

Step 2: Be patient and only sign players (such as Rasheed or any available free agents) to one year deals in the summer of 2009. Then, in the summer of 2010, hope that either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire can be convinced to take Bill Davidson’s money.

If the Pistons simply made the one of the above trades and did nothing else, their roster entering the 2010 season would look something like this:

PG: Rodney Stuckey, Jordan Farmar/Ronnie Price/Will Bynum?
SG: RIP Hamilton, Arron Afflalo
SF: T. Young/T. Ariza/CJ Miles, W. Sharpe
PF: Amir Johnson, J. Maxiell
C: _______, M. Speights/K. Koufos/K. Brown?

By making the moves suggested above, the Pistons would have plenty of available cap space for the summer of 2010, some of which will be needed to re-sign Amir Johnson. The only way to complete that roster would be to add a stud at center. The Pistons would have the flexibility to offer a maximum contract and there are plenty of stars who will be on the market that summer. The two that make the most sense for the Pistons are Amare Stoudemire and Chris Bosh. Each of their teams could be in terrible shape entering that summer and if they want to win, there are plenty of reasons that the two young stars should consider Detroit.

In Stoudemire’s case, the appeal is obvious. Phoenix could be a disaster zone 18 months from now. Shaq, Grant Hil, and Raja Bell will be done, Steve Nash will be a free agent nearing the end of his career, and Nash and Stoudemire are the only players on the current roster who should be starting in the NBA in 2011. If Stoudemire wants to compete for a Championship, he will want to get out of Phoenix. In Detroit, he would be the focal point of the offense – which he very clearly desires – and his ability to attack the basket would fit perfectly with Michael Curry’s approach. However, because of his shortcomings on defense, he is not the best case scenario signee for the Pistons.

Chris Bosh is just as lethal as Amare offensively, except he also brings his A-game on the defensive end of the floor. Bosh is already one of the ten best players in the NBA and he still has room to grow. There is a good chance that he will try to join forces with LeBron, either in Cleveland or with one of the New York teams, but if not, the Pistons would love to have him.

By following that plan, the Pistons could quickly re-emerge as contenders – a status they lost when they dealt Billups.

(Note: Anyone who has read my previous posts is probably wondering how I can write that the Pistons’ chances of landing Bosh or Amare are slim and then advocate a plan based on getting one of those players. I stand by my belief that the team’s chances of landing one of the stars is less than 50-50 and I do not think it was wise of Dumars to trade Billups – an elite point guard – for cap space that may or may not help land a start two years down the road. With that said, the Pistons absolutely need a replacement for Rasheed in the frontcourt and Kwame Brown is not the answer. The Pistons have no internal options and are unlikely to find such a player late in the draft, so the best they can do is hope to lure a star free agent.)

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