Starting Big

With the Allen Iverson fiasco taken care of, the Pistons are left with only one significant rotation question heading into the playoffs (assuming they qualify). Theoretically, the Pistons could consider starting the surprising Will Bynum ahead of Rodney Stuckey, but Bynum’s aggressive style has fit in nicely with the second unit. Michael Curry made it clear that he plans to keep Stuckey in the starting lineup. With the backcourt rotation settled, Michael Curry needs to decide which of his five big men to start and which two of the remaining three bigs will see the bulk of the bench minutes.

When Rasheed Wallace returned from injury last week, Michael Curry hinted that he may keep Kwame Brown in the starting lineup along with Antonio McDyess. As I see it, there are five possible combinations of big men the Pistons could start in the frountcourt.

1. Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess.
   Wallace and McDyess are the two best big men Curry has, but if he starts both, that greatly weakens his bench. Wallace and McDyess are the only Piston bigs with reliable outside shots. As a result, the Pistons like to have at least one on the court at all times in order to spread the floor. In the regular season – if Curry starts both – there will be stretches where the bench struggles to score. This is mitigated in the playoffs when Curry is likely to increase the playing time for both Wallace and McDyess, thereby ensuring that one of the two is on the court at all times.
2. Kwame Brown and Antonio McDyess.
   Chris McCosky of The Detroit News and Matt Watson of DetroitBadBoys.com both endorsed this arrangement, although they stated their opinions under the assumption that Iverson would remain a part of the rotation. According to 82games.com, the Pistons have performed far better when Kwame Brown plays alongside either Antonio McDyess or Amir Johnson as opposed to playing with Rasheed Wallace or Jason Maxiell. If the Pistons intend to pair Brown and Johnson, they should bring them off the bench behind Wallace and McDyess. The more plausible way to start Brown would be to play him with McDyess. That arrangement gives the starting unit strong rebounding and interior defense, while it adds a scoring threat to the bench in the form of Wallace. While this makes some sense, I can’t support benching Wallace. His all-around game has been more valuable than the play of either McDyess or Brown and the +/- numbers back me up, even if PER gives the edge to McDyess.
3. Rasheed Wallace and Amir Johnson.
   For all of the reasons stated above, it makes plenty of sense to play McDyess and Brown together. With that said, the Wallace/Johnson combination has been even more effective than the McDyess/Brown pairing. Also, Antonio McDyess has stated on numerous occasions that he is more comfortable with a bench role, while Wallace has started nearly every game he has played over the last 10 seasons. More importantly, in the playoffs, Wallace has typically played about 35 minutes per game, while McDyess has averaged less than two thirds of that amount. Even last year, with Ben Wallace and Chris Webber out of the way, McDyess played only 27.5 minutes per playoff game. Wallace has proven he can handle heavy minutes while McDyess has not, so if the Pistons are only going to start one of the two, it should be Wallace.
4. Rasheed Wallace and Jason Maxiell.
   As much as I prefer the previous arrangement, Michael Curry would likely opt for this one if he decides to start Wallace but not McDyess. In my estimation, that would be a colossal mistake. Going back to 82games.com’s “player pairs,” the Pistons have not outscored their opponents when you pair Jason Maxiell with any player currently on the Piston roster. For the reasons outlined here, Maxiell struggles because he is a 6’6 player who cannot shoot or dribble well enough to overcome his relative lack of size. He does several things well, but defensive rebounding, shooting, and man defense are not among them. Maxiell should not be starting for a playoff team until those things change.
5. Rasheed Wallace and Kwame Brown.
   If Curry decides he wants to separate Wallace and McDyess and start Brown, he may test this route for the reasons explained under option 3. Brown has been a force defensively and on the glass, so he could prove valuable enough to start during the playoffs. Wallace’s game would seem to compliment Brown’s nicely, but thus far the combination has not performed well. The downfall of this lineup would lie with the bench, as Wallace and Brown are the only centers on the roster.

In summary, Michael Curry has several logical choices, but the best move would be to start Wallace alongside either McDyess or Johnson. It appears that Johnson has fallen out of the rotation. If that is the case, Curry should maintain the lineup he used against Charlotte, which featured Wallace and McDyess. While this hurts the bench during the regular season, this should be less of a problem in the playoffs.

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Fastbreak Buckets 3.06.09

-If the Pistons want to separate themselves from the pack at the bottom of the East standings, they need to win five of their next six games – a feat which seems very possibly given their upcoming schedule. Detroit’s upcoming schedule features home games against Golden State, Orlando, New York, and Memphis along with road games against Atlanta and Toronto. The Pistons should dominate Golden State, New York, and Memphis, while Toronto should not pose much of a threat. If the Pistons maintain last week’s momentum, they should also fare well against Orlando and Atlanta. If the Pistons hope to make a push for a top-five seed in the playoffs – hence avoiding the East’s big-three in round one – there is no time like the present to make a move up the standings.

-Piston fans need to calm down about Will Bynum. The positives about Bynum are that he is fun to watch and he has an uncanny ability to get to the basket. The negatives are everything else. Bynum has no confidence in his jump shot and for good reason – he has made 29% of non-layup two-pointers and is 1/6 on threes this season. Despite his ability to get to the basket, he is shooting only 41%. A player Bynum’s size cannot survive in the NBA without a reliable jumper. Whenever he is on the court, opposing defenses simply clog the paint and force Bynum’s teammates to shoot over people. Bynum has shown enough this season to stick in the NBA as a third point guard, but until he learns to shoot well enough to keep defenses honest, he should not be playing significant minutes.

-Speaking of players who need to fix their shot, Arron Afflalo has disappeared from the Piston’s rotation. Afflalo is a nice defender with the potential to mimic the career paths of players like Raja Bell, Bruce Bowen, and Mickael Pietrus. While none of those players are great offensively, all hit open shots and force defenses to play them honestly. Therein lies the problem for Afflalo; his shot has abandoned him lately. Since the start of February, Afflalo is 2-11 on non-layup two pointers and 1-5 on threes. January was not much better – he shot below 40% for the month.

As a result of his poor shooting, Afflalo has played 14 minutes total in the team’s last seven games. During the first 30 games of the season, Afflalo shot better than 46% with more than a quarter of his makes coming on threes. He needs to re-establish that stroke if he hopes to return to the rotation. The good news for Afflalo’s future is that similar players have tended to be late bloomers. Raja Bell did not post a respectable PER until age 27, but is currently in the midst of his sixth consecutive productive season. Likewise, Bruce Bowen did not even find his footing in the NBA until he was 26. If Afflalo can continue to improve his defense and work on his shot, he should be valuable role player down the road. In the meantime, he’s going to be hard-pressed to earn minutes if he continues to be an offensive zero.

-One often overlooked aspect of the trade for Allen Iverson was the cap space created by including Antonio McDyess in the deal. While Pistons fans are very aware that the team cleared Billups’ twelve-million-a-year contract off the books, it should be noted that the Pistons no longer are obligated to pay McDyess 7.5 million next season. McDyess is an excellent role player who has done great things in Detroit, but in this economy, that money could go a long way on the free agent market this summer. Detroit should have roughly 18 million in cap space this summer.

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Curry Can't Create Consistency

In coaching, there is a fine line between successfully making adjustments and maintaining consistency. If a coach is too rigid, that coach will fail to make the changes a team needs. When a coach is inflexible with rotations, there is less incentive for players to work to either maintain or expand their roles.

On the other hand, a coach has to maintain some level of stability. There is a middle ground between keeping pressure on a player to earn his minutes and forcing a player to look over his shoulder at every turn. A player needs the freedom to play aggressively without the fear that a few missteps will lead to a reduction in minutes.

All season long, players have been talking about the “transitions” and “adjustments” that accompany roster and coaching changes. Thanks to Michael Curry’s constant tinkering, players have had the added duty of adjusting to different minutes and rotation patterns on almost a game-by-game basis. A player has no chance to find a rhythm if his minutes are yo-yoing and he is forced to play alongside a different group of teammates almost every game.

Michael Curry has come nowhere to achieving balance between flexibility and stability this season. The first lineup change – Iverson replacing Billups – was out of Curry’s control. Since then, Curry had changed the starting lineup four times. After the trade, he first started Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, Wallace, and Johnson. He then inserted Kwame Brown in place of Johnson in order to add muscle to the team’s interior. When Brown failed to produce, he was replaced by Rodney Stuckey in hopes of starting the team’s five best players. Small ball was a disaster, so Curry re-inserted Amir Johnson, this time in place of RIP Hamilton. Today, Curry will be implementing his latest change: starting Antonio McDyess in place of Johnson.

So much for preserving credibility. Less than a month ago, Curry had this to say about the team’s starting lineup:

"This is it for the rest of the season," Curry said.
--The Grand Rapids Press

The players sound resigned to the constant tinkering.

"At this point, we've had so many different lineup changes, it really doesn't matter," Tayshaun Prince said. "We just have to start playing together and try to get some wins. Dyess will help us defensively and rebounding and he will make some shots. But the key to it all now is, who's going to be that big coming off the bench for us? There's good ways and bad ways to look at it.”
-- The Detroit News

The move also flies in the face of everything Curry has said about developing the young players and trying to stagger the minutes of Wallace and McDyess. Curry likes to have one his veteran big men on the court at all times because they are the only two Piston big men with reliable outside shots. When any combination of Johnson, Jason Maxiell, and Kwame Brown are on the floor together, opposing big men can sag into the paint and clog the middle. With Wallace and McDyess starting and finishing games together, Curry will struggle to find minutes for both Johnson and Maxiell – the two Piston big men who are actually a part of this team’s future. Also, while Johnson has not played as well as many had hoped, he is second on the team in net +/-. This implies that even though Johnson is not filling up the stat sheet, the team performs much better when he is on the court.

The man being promoted, Antonio McDyess, is currently saying all the right things, but past comments indicate he is not a fan of the switch.

"I can't see that happening," McDyess said Friday after practice. "Where I'm at mentally, I don't know if starting would be good for me. I think I work better coming off the bench.”
-- Detroit Free Press

This is another example of what Chris McCosky described as overcoaching. The players have already expressed plenty of frustration with Curry. Maybe he will learn from his mistakes and improve as a coach. Unless that happens, Curry’s constant experimenting and the associated poor results can lead to only one conclusion: he is failing as a head coach.

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Midseason Report Card (Part II)

At 24-17 the Pistons have reached the mid-point of their season. That means it is time for midseason grades. Grades are based upon how well players have performed relative to expectations thus far in the 2008-2009 season. Click here for Part I, where I graded the starters.

Reserves

RIP Hamitlon: Hamilton has been the Pistons’ leading scorer for the last season so he showed a ton of humility in accepting a bench role, even if he might have done so begrudgingly. On the season, Hamilton has struggled without his partner in crime – Billups. His current scoring average would be the lowest since his rookie season. Hamilton was also worked over by a number of small forwards when he was asked to play out of position in small ball arrangements. The Pistons will now find out if he can be more productive as the focal point of the offense with the second unit. Grade: C

Antonio McDyess: The Pistons missed McDyess desperately during his league mandated 30-day wait to re-join the team after he was included in the Iverson deal. McDyess has lost considerable quickness since he signed with the Pistons in 2004, but he remains a reliable rebounder, post defender, and jump shooter. An underrated factor in the Pistons’ poor play this season is that McDyess is no longer starting and thus has had his minutes reduced. This may pay dividends in the playoffs if McDyess has fresher legs, but in the meantime the Pistons are a better team when McDyess is on the court. Grade: B+

Jason Maxiell: One of the worst consequences of small ball was that Maxiell was often squeezed out of the rotation. His minutes have been reduced, but his effectiveness has not wavered. When on the court, Maxiell changes games with his relentless rebounding and spectacular shot blocking ability. Maxiell is an undersized big, so he is a liability against certain post players. Otherwise, Maxiell is one of most productive Pistons and deserves at least 20 minutes per game to impact games. Grade: B

Arron Afflalo: With RIP Hamilton coming off the bench, Afflalo may struggle to see the court. When he does play, he has shown a vastly improved jump shot to pair with his already stellar defense. His poor playmaking abilities limit his effectiveness, but he is a valuable role player for the Pistons. His role should increase substantially next season, assuming that Iverson is not retained. Grade: B-

Kwame Brown: Brown played great defense against dominant post scorers including Shaquille O’Neal, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Tim Duncan. Otherwise, Brown has been completely useless. He is a disaster offensively who struggles to catch the ball, make free throws, or generally stay out of his own way. Brown is a serviceable fifth big man. Considering the ransom the Pistons paid for his services, it is safe to say they were hoping for more. Grade: C-

Will Bynum: Bynum has been a pleasant surprise for the Pistons. His role expanded when the Pistons traded Billups and moved Iverson to shooting guard, and Bynum has done an OK job at point guard. His jump shot is inconsistent and he is a liability defensively because of his size, but he has played well enough to earn a more permanent spot in the NBA. Grade: B+

Walter Herrmann: Herrmann was awesome the first week of the season, but has disappeared since. He excited fans with his three-point shooting and quirky forays to the basket, however his minutes were kept in check by an ability to stay in front of his man defensively. As his minutes waned, he lost his rhythm on his jump shot. He is now out of the rotation and probably on his way to a different organization by the start of next season. Grade: C-

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No Dice for Curry

Michael Curry explained why he reverted to small ball:

"It's a simple matter of getting your best five guys out there as much as possible," Curry said.
– ESPN.com

If Curry really wants his “best five guys” to start the game, he should keep Antonio McDyess in mind. PER is hardly a perfect stat (for example, it overvalues Allen Iverson’s steals, which usually occur when he gambles instead of playing sound defense), but it does give a good indication of how productive a player is offensively and on the glass. So far this season, Iverson’s PER is 16.09, Hamilton is at 15.67, and McDyess is at 15.2. According to those stats, the players are relatively close in terms of offensive production.

Defense, however, is another story. McDyess is one of the better defenders on the team and protects the paint when he is in the game. Iverson and Hamilton are the two worst defenders in the Pistons rotation. Overall, McDyess has been a far more productive contributor for the Pistons than either Iverson or Hamilton.

If a team with Stuckey, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace played against Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, McDyess, and Wallace, the latter squad would win upwards of 70 percent of the games. If Curry chooses to hurt the team by playing small ball so be it, just try not to lie to the fans about the motivation (egos).

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Fastbreak Buckets 1.10.09

-Determining a starting lineup going forward could prove to be a huge challenge for Michael Curry. RIP Hamilton told The Detroit News that he has no interest in adapting to a bench role. Allen Iverson still believes that he is a star and it remains to be seen if he would be willing to be a sixth man for the first time in his career. Rodney Stuckey is clearly the team’s best point guard and Tayshaun Prince belongs at small forward, so it is in the Pistons’ best interest that either Hamilton or Iverson come off the bench. Hopefully, one of the two will relent and embrace a bench role. Until then, there will be some uncomfortable moments for the Pistons.

-The last two games have been almost exactly mirror images of each other for the Pistons. Against Portland, Detroit led by as much as thirteen, allowed Portland to drill away at the lead throughout the second half, and then watched the game slip away after Travis Outlaw made a very difficult jumper. In Denver, Detroit trailed by as much as fourteen, drilled away at the lead throughout the second half, and then stole the game after Tayshaun Prince hit a tough jumper.

-Before the 2008 season, Jason Maxiell worked on improving his free throw shooting. The extra practice time showed up on the stat sheet. Maxiell – who missed more than half of his free throw attempts during his first two seasons – converted on 63.3% of his free throws last season. This season, Maxiell seems to have reverted to his old ways. He has made just 53.2% of this season’s attempts and has had a number of embarrassing misses. Maxiell has played fewer minutes this season than he did a season ago. If he can start making upwards of 60% of his free throws again, those minutes might start to creep back up.

-Antonio McDyess was booed throughout last night’s game in Denver. The jeers served as a reminder of how lucky the Pistons are that he returned. McDyess has been invaluable this season. He is a complete player who helps the Pistons in so many ways. It is no coincidence that one of the Pistons’ worst four week stretches of the past five years coincided with the time Dice missed.

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Dice On A Roll

The Pistons dodged a major bullet when Antonio McDyess elected to return to Detroit. McDyess claims that he understands the Pistons’ motivation for the trade and is not upset with Dumars, but Dice had to be slightly perturbed that the team considered him somewhat expendable. Dumars could not have been certain that McDyess would turn down teams like Boston and Cleveland that offered him more dollars and a better shot at a title. Dumars should be thankful he did.

While the Pistons surely have missed Billups since the trade, they missed McDyess nearly as much. During the 17 games the Pistons played without McDyess, he was essentially replaced in the rotation by Kwame Brown. The drop-off in production was drastic. Dice is superior to Brown in virtually every aspect of the game. He is a far better shooter and pick and roll defender. Dice also holds an edge over Brown in terms of rebounding, shot blocking, and finishing plays around the basket. The one area where Brown may have an edge is defending the league’s behemoths, but players like Shaq and Andrew Bynum are few and far between. Brown will likely be called up again when the Pistons face a team with a dominant post scorer. Until then, he should be rooted to the bench where he can try to learn a thing or two from watching McDyess.

Since returning to the team, Dice is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game while playing just over 23 minutes per night. He has made better than 59% of his field goal attempts and has made all five of his free throws. McDyess is a stabilizing force on the court and has been a reliable interior defender during his five seasons in Detroit. He is also the best rebounder in the Pistons rotation – Amir Johnson is the team’s best rebounder, but he has not seen the floor since McDyess’s return.

McDyess is not starting games this season – instead he is finishing them. McDyess has been on the court for the majority of the fourth quarter in each game since his return. It is nearly impossible to play sturdy defense with a small ball lineup and rebounding has also been a major issue for the small ball Pistons. Thanks to the return of McDyess, the Pistons no longer have those problems down the stretch. The Pistons crunch time front court includes McDyess, Rasheed Wallace, and Tayshaun Prince – all players who defend and rebound well at their positions. The combination is a big reason that the Pistons have been able to close out their last three opponents. If the Pistons are able to win 50 games for an eighth consecutive season, McDyess’s decision to return will be a big reason why.

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Fastbreak Buckets 12.08.08

“Fastbreak Buckets” will be an occasional feature on CTBAAF where I take a quick look at a few different topics.

-The return of Antonio McDyess could not have come at a better time. The Pistons are reeling and definitely need the outside shooting, interior defense, and passionate play that McDyess brings to the table. Also, Rasheed Wallace has played poorly recently and he appears to be wearing down. With McDyess back in the fold, the Pistons only need to play Wallace about 30 minutes per game, which should allow him to be more productive.

-The more Iverson struggles, the more convinced I am that Dumars actually made the trade as a strict salary dump in an effort to re-build. The Pistons scouts could not have possibly believed that Iverson is an upgrade over Billups. While I understand the desire to re-build after falling short of a championship for four straight seasons, trading the team’s best player – Billups – for salary cap relief was not the right move. Billups’ contract is reasonable and he is one of the 20 best players in the NBA. His strong play in Denver has only confirmed this.

-Michael Curry hinted that a change in the starting lineup is on the way. Many Pistons fans are clamoring for the team to start Stuckey over Iverson and in a strictly basketball sense, I agree with them. However, Iverson’s ego and a bench role are a potentially disastrous pairing. Ideally, I would love to see the Pistons show Iverson the advantages of the Jason Terry role. Terry is taking more shots per game than Iverson despite coming off the bench. If Iverson were to embrace a bench role, his shots per game could actually increase because he will spend more time on the floor with players like Afflalo and Maxiell who do not need the ball. The problem is that I doubt Iverson would embrace such a change. If Iverson needs to start, I think the starting lineup that makes the most sense is: Iverson, RIP, Tay, Amir, and Sheed.

-I fear that the lineup Curry will actually choose is: Stuckey, Iverson, RIP, Tay, and Sheed. This lineup would be punished inside and would struggle to rebound. Also, if Prince is eating up minutes at power forward, Maxiell and Amir Johnson would lose minutes. Johnson makes plays and good things tend to happen when he is on the court. I would hate to see his minutes cut in favor of a small ball approach.

Update: Shortly after posting this, I learned that the Pistons will use the small ball arrangement I argued against. I hope I am wrong, but I see major problems with that lineup's lack of size. Also, keep an eye on Amir Johnson's minutes, or lack thereof, in upcoming games. He should be playing about 20 minutes per night, but there is virtually no chance of this happening without an injury.

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