Am I Supposed to be Excited?

Yahoo's Adrian Wojnarowski reports that the Pistons are close to signing two former Connecticut Huskies to play alongside UConn alum RIP Hamilton.

"Chicago Bulls guard Ben Gordon and Milwaukee Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva flew to Detroit on Wednesday morning for a mid-day meeting with team president Joe Dumars and indications are both are moving rapidly toward deals with the Detroit Pistons."
--Yahoo! Sports

Kelly Dwyer sums up my feelings. If the reports are true, for the first time since he took over as GM, I have serious doubts about Joe Dumars and his plan. Prove me wrong Joe.

Update: ESPN's Henry Abbott used to like the Chauncey Billups trade from Detroit's perspective. Used to.

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Catching Up: Dumars Says “No” to Rajon Rondo

Reports circulated last week that the Pistons turned down a Celtic offer of Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen for Rodney Stuckey, RIP Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons apparently rejected the deal without much hesitation, but the deal is much too appealing to have merited such little consideration.

The current Piston roster is nowhere near contention. Adding Ben Gordon and either Carlos Boozer or Charlie Villanueva (a likely summer plan for Joe Dumars) would put the Pistons in the playoffs, but leave the team well short of beating Cleveland or Orlando. The aforementioned players are all poor defenders and neither Stuckey nor Hamilton would do much to compensate.

Part of the appeal to the deal would be the Pistons’ ability to upgrade from Stuckey to Rondo at point guard. While Stuckey has the potential to be a star, Rondo is already there. Both point guards are 23, but Rondo’s PER was four points higher last season. Rondo is also among the best defensive guards in the world.

The other benefit of the trade would be financial. This may be a tough pill for Piston fans to swallow, but given the right offer, the Pistons should jump at an opportunity to rid themselves of two players, Hamilton and Prince, set to earn big bucks in their 30s. Hamilton is 31 while Prince will turn 30 this season. Hamilton and Prince are on the payroll for roughly 23 million combined in 2011, followed by 12.65 million per season for Hamilton through 2013. Meanwhile, Ray Allen’s contract expires in 2010.

Maintaining the status quo ensures a half-hearted push toward relevance for the next few seasons while Hamilton and Prince fade toward retirement. The prescient move would be to aim for long-term success and shoot for an even higher ceiling. Removing the remaining overpaid players from the previous era would be a necessary step to do so. The Pistons would have to give Rondo a contract extension beginning in the 2011 season – a season in which Stuckey will still be on his rookie contract – but the overall financial ramifications of the deal would still strongly favor the Pistons.

Assuming the Pistons give Rondo a contract extension of roughly 12 million per season, the Pistons would create roughly 15 million dollars in additional cap space for the summer of 2010. Through this trade, the Pistons would have Rondo, whichever free agents they acquire this summer, and enough cap space to be a serious player in the much-ballyhooed summer of 2010. With the right maneuvering, Dumars could forge a foundation that could contend into the next decade.

While the deal appears attractive on the surface, there are legitimate concerns on Detroit’s end. There have been questions about Rajon Rondo’s character. Pairing him with Michael Curry may not be a smart fit, as Curry did a poor job managing difficult personalities last season. Also, for the deal to be worthwhile, the Pistons will have to find a player willing to take their money and worthy of earning it on the free agent market.

While the above concerns are legitimate, the Pistons need to at least be open to any and all possibilities for reshaping the roster. For the Pistons to return to elite status, Dumars must either drastically overhaul the roster or add a superstar. Swapping perimeter players with Boston accomplishes the former and puts the team in position to achieve the latter during the summer of 2010.

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RIP Rollin'

When asked to assess how RIP Hamilton has performed as a reserve, team president Joe Dumars said: “I think RIP has handled this exceptionally well.” Has he ever. As a reserve, Hamilton has essentially matched his averages as a starter despite playing far fewer minutes. Hamilton has thrived as the leader of the second unit, in part because he has the green light to be much more aggressive.


Hamilton’s point per minute and assist per minute numbers have both been substantially better as a reserve. When the Pistons played small ball, Hamilton began halves on the floor at the same time as Rodney Stuckey, Allen Iverson, and Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace; this put the Pistons’ top five offensive players on the court simultaneously. With only one ball to go around, there were not enough shot opportunities to fully utilize the skills of all five players. With Hamilton in a reserve role, he has typically been on the court with one to three of the aforementioned players. As a result, he has had his number called far more frequently while in the game.

While Hamilton is no longer starting games or playing as many minutes, he is finishing games and attempting just as many shots per game as he had previously. Manu Ginobili, Jason Terry, and J.R. Smith are among the perimeter players with starter talent who have excelled as high-scoring backups. Hamilton appears to be well on his way to earning that description.

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Out of Focus

A big part of the reason Michael Curry elected to bench RIP Hamilton instead of Allen Iverson was that he needed to pair Hamilton with Will Bynum off the bench. Bynum worked to learn Hamilton’s tendencies and was beginning to develop chemistry with the three-time All-Star. Also, Bynum and Iverson are too small to play together, so Curry could not afford to play both with the second unit.

Curry has recently taken Bynum out of the rotation – Bynum has played just one minute total during the past four games. Now that Bynum is essentially out of the mix, Curry needs to re-consider his starting lineup. I explained here and here why RIP should be starting over Iverson. Iverson demonstrated with pitiful defense (explained here), poor shot selection (explained here), and poor results (evidence here), that he should not be starting. Michael Rosenberg did an outstanding job of explaining this very issue in today's Detroit Free Press.

Iverson, on the other hands, told the Detroit Free Press he wants to be an even bigger part of the Pistons’ offensive attack.

"I would love to be a focal part on the offensive end," [Iverson] said. "That's where I've been all my career. And that's why I play the game. That's the type of competitor I am. In crucial situations, I want the ball in my hands. But like I've been saying all along: The calls they make, I trust my teammates and the coaching staff to be able to get us over the hump."

It’s a good thing Iverson isn’t coaching. He was the “focal part” of the offense for ten full seasons in Philadelphia. From 1997 until 2006, the 76ers were 21st, 21st, 23rd, 25th, 13th, 23rd, 11th, 26th, 24th and 15th, by season, in offensive efficiency*. In total, the Iverson-led 76ers were in the bottom third of the NBA in offensive efficiency seven times, but did not finish in the top third once**. The Pistons are currently 23rd in offensive efficiency. They had finished amongst the top-six teams in offensive efficiency each of the previous three seasons. The Pistons would be well-served to take Iverson’s advice and do the exact opposite.

*Offensive efficiency is a measure of points scored per possession.
**There were 29 teams during the first seven seasons (through 2003) and 30 during the final three.

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Fastbreak Buckets 1.27.09

Today’s edition of fastbreak buckets is a blockquote special.

-Interesting tidbit in the Monday’s Boston Globe. (H/T TrueHoop)

[Ray] Allen started wearing [a sleeve] when he was in a horrific slump during the Detroit series last spring. He wears the sleeve on just his left arm - sort of like Michael Jackson without the creepiness.
"Rip Hamilton grew his fingernails long and he was scratching me," explained Allen. "I needed the sleeve to shield me from those nails. And I've stayed with it."

Those are the type of tactics that earn a player “wily veteran” status from his fans and “dirty player” labels from his opponents. One thing that cannot be questioned is RIP’s willingness to do whatever it takes to win.

-Anonymous scouts are to sports what tabloids are to pop culture. They can both create unsubstantiated nonsense which appears as fact in print. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey, who usually does a much better job with his NBA coverage, had two quotes worth of anonymous rubbish in his Sunday column. (H/T Need4Sheed)

"[The Pistons] are playing with no emotion," says a long-distance viewer. Allen Iverson "has killed the team's spirit with his style of play."

I have noticed an inefficient offense, inconsistent defense, and poor coaching, but if a “long-distance viewer” can detect a dead spirit, maybe he knows something the rest of us do not.

So hooked on economics is Dumars, an agent testifies, he was prepared to deal treasured Tayshaun Prince for Stephen Jackson (or maybe it was Ron Artest) whose contract was set to terminate after next season.

It was one thing for the Pistons to trade Billups for cap space in an attempt to balance the roster; the Pistons had two quality point guards in Billups and Stuckey, but needed frontcourt help. Dumars elected to trade Billups for impending cap room which he will try to use to lure a big man, thus balancing the roster. Prince is a completely separate issue. If the Pistons were to trade Prince for cap room, they would have cap room and a major hole at small forward to fill. They would probably have to use that cap room to sign a small forward – probably a small forward very much like Prince. Dumars chimed in with his thoughts on the assertion.

"That's absolutely false! I'm not trading Prince, period," Dumars fumed.

-Piston players have made some disturbing comment about their coach recently.

Iverson, to The Detroit News, on the Pistons’ poor defense against Houston:

"Have you talked to MC yet?" Allen Iverson asked, referring to coach Michael Curry. "He should have the answers. He knows better than me why we're not getting it done."
…
"If it looked like we were playing a zone, and we weren't, that's not good," Iverson said.

More from Iverson in today's Detroit News.

"I would be lying if I said I wasn't frustrated," Iverson said. "I just feel like I can offer more to the team. I can do more to help us win games, and when that opportunity presents itself, I will be right here to take the challenge."

Tayshaun Prince hinted at displeasure with the coaching staff in this Detroit News article. He said the Pistons need to stop worrying about coaching schemes and simply play better. Reading between the lines, if they need to stop worrying about coaching schemes, that implies that players currently are worrying about coaching schemes.

"At some point you have to put all that aside and not worry about the X's and O's and just do what you have to do defensively as far as taking a challenge. I don't think we are doing that in the first quarters."
…
"It's tough because you would think at this point we would have found our way and we haven't," Prince said.

Rasheed Wallace was slightly less subtle than Prince when he spoke with The Detroit News.

"I guess you can say we were confused early," said Rasheed Wallace, who voiced his displeasure to Curry twice early in the game. "We figured it out in the second half but by then it was too late."

Wallace on his lack of fourth quarter touches against Houston after scoring ten points in the third quarter.

"It wasn't my call," Wallace said. "Just got to go with the flow, I guess."

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Who Should Close? (Non-Tigers Edition)

Now that the Pistons seem to have settled on a starting lineup, Michael Curry faces an even more important question: which five players will be on the court to finish close games? In the first three games since Curry moved Hamilton to the bench, the outcome of the game has dictated the finishing lineup for him. The games against Toronto and Dallas were not close in the fourth quarter and the closing lineup was irrelevant. In the game against Houston, the Pistons trailed by 15 in the fourth quarter, so when the score tightened up, Curry elected to stick with the players who led the comeback.

Should the Pistons play a close game sometime in the near future, Curry will face an interesting dilemma. Two players – Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess – appear to be safe. They are the team’s best interior players and Curry values their defense, rebounding, and outside shooting.

The remaining three positions are less clear. Tayshaun Prince is the team’s best perimeter defender and probably its best overall player. He almost definitely should be in the game down the stretch.

RIP Hamilton has been the focus of the Pistons’ offense down the stretch for the past several years. Among returning Pistons, he was by far the most effective clutch* performer last season. Curry also promised Hamilton roughly 30 minutes per game. Hamilton has been entering games roughly nine minutes into each half, so he has to be on the floor the entire second and fourth quarters in order to reach the aforementioned 30-minute mark.

Allen Iverson has been the go-to guy down the stretch for the Pistons most of this year. He was acquired because of his ability to break down a defense – precisely the type of skill that is most useful at the end of close games, when defenses tighten up.

Rodney Stuckey is the best point guard on the team. He also appears to be the centerpiece Joe Dumars would like to build the team around. Since the Pistons seem to be making moves with an eye toward the future, the team needs to ensure that its youngest star gains experience in clutch situations.

Prince, Hamilton, Iverson, and Stuckey all have very compelling cases to be on the court when the game is on the line. There is no easy answer for Curry. As far as egos are concerned, the safest option – benching Stuckey – may very well be the worst option. Part of the reason the Pistons traded Chauncey Billups was that the team wanted Stuckey to take the reins of the franchise and receive on the job training. It would be foolish of the Pistons to expand Stuckey’s role, only to make him watch the most important moments of a game from the bench.

The strategy that makes the most sense is for Curry to ride the hot hand between Iverson and Hamilton. Whichever shooting guard is having a better game should earn the opportunity to finish the game. If either Stuckey or Prince is way off his game, there are situations where the struggling player should sit, however those two players are able to impact a game in so many ways that it would be difficult to take either out of a close game.

Neither Iverson or Hamilton will like the fact that they will occasionally be seated during crunch time. Hopefully they will understand that if the Pistons are going to accomplish something they have not done often lately – win – they need a balanced lineup that only has room for one of them on the court.

*Clutch is defined by 82games.com as any point in the 4th quarter or overtime where there is less than five minutes left and neither team is ahead by more than five points

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Midseason Report Card (Part II)

At 24-17 the Pistons have reached the mid-point of their season. That means it is time for midseason grades. Grades are based upon how well players have performed relative to expectations thus far in the 2008-2009 season. Click here for Part I, where I graded the starters.

Reserves

RIP Hamitlon: Hamilton has been the Pistons’ leading scorer for the last season so he showed a ton of humility in accepting a bench role, even if he might have done so begrudgingly. On the season, Hamilton has struggled without his partner in crime – Billups. His current scoring average would be the lowest since his rookie season. Hamilton was also worked over by a number of small forwards when he was asked to play out of position in small ball arrangements. The Pistons will now find out if he can be more productive as the focal point of the offense with the second unit. Grade: C

Antonio McDyess: The Pistons missed McDyess desperately during his league mandated 30-day wait to re-join the team after he was included in the Iverson deal. McDyess has lost considerable quickness since he signed with the Pistons in 2004, but he remains a reliable rebounder, post defender, and jump shooter. An underrated factor in the Pistons’ poor play this season is that McDyess is no longer starting and thus has had his minutes reduced. This may pay dividends in the playoffs if McDyess has fresher legs, but in the meantime the Pistons are a better team when McDyess is on the court. Grade: B+

Jason Maxiell: One of the worst consequences of small ball was that Maxiell was often squeezed out of the rotation. His minutes have been reduced, but his effectiveness has not wavered. When on the court, Maxiell changes games with his relentless rebounding and spectacular shot blocking ability. Maxiell is an undersized big, so he is a liability against certain post players. Otherwise, Maxiell is one of most productive Pistons and deserves at least 20 minutes per game to impact games. Grade: B

Arron Afflalo: With RIP Hamilton coming off the bench, Afflalo may struggle to see the court. When he does play, he has shown a vastly improved jump shot to pair with his already stellar defense. His poor playmaking abilities limit his effectiveness, but he is a valuable role player for the Pistons. His role should increase substantially next season, assuming that Iverson is not retained. Grade: B-

Kwame Brown: Brown played great defense against dominant post scorers including Shaquille O’Neal, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Tim Duncan. Otherwise, Brown has been completely useless. He is a disaster offensively who struggles to catch the ball, make free throws, or generally stay out of his own way. Brown is a serviceable fifth big man. Considering the ransom the Pistons paid for his services, it is safe to say they were hoping for more. Grade: C-

Will Bynum: Bynum has been a pleasant surprise for the Pistons. His role expanded when the Pistons traded Billups and moved Iverson to shooting guard, and Bynum has done an OK job at point guard. His jump shot is inconsistent and he is a liability defensively because of his size, but he has played well enough to earn a more permanent spot in the NBA. Grade: B+

Walter Herrmann: Herrmann was awesome the first week of the season, but has disappeared since. He excited fans with his three-point shooting and quirky forays to the basket, however his minutes were kept in check by an ability to stay in front of his man defensively. As his minutes waned, he lost his rhythm on his jump shot. He is now out of the rotation and probably on his way to a different organization by the start of next season. Grade: C-

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Fastbreak Buckets 1.14.09

-Amir Johnson can have a major impact on games when he is on the floor. If he plans to spend significant time on the court, he needs to learn how to avoid fouling. Johnson has been fouling at an obscene rate the last few weeks; he has at least four fouls in each of the 10 games since Christmas despite averaging just 21.1 minutes per game in that stretch. He has averaged one foul per 4.6 minutes of game time. The foul problems reached a new extreme this week when he committed ten fouls in 18 minutes during the last two games. Johnson’s production has also fallen off during the stretch, partly because early foul trouble has taken away from his aggressiveness.

Johnson needs to stop biting on pump fakes from potential jump shooters. Players like Tayshaun Prince and Tim Duncan have shown that one can play effective defense by closing out on shooters without jumping to block the shot. Johnson needs to take a page out of Duncan’s book and simply dare players to shoot over him. Johnson also has developed a bad habit of bumping players as they attempt to drive toward the basket. He needs to learn how to say in front of his man without making contact. Lastly, Johnson needs to do a better job of setting his feet on screens as to avoid the offensive foul and turnover associated with a moving screen.

-I have spent most of my recent posts discussing the starting lineup. Just to be clear on how many minutes I want each Piston playing, here is my ideal breakdown of minutes, by position. This breakdown only applies to close games when everyone is healthy.

• PG: Stuckey: 36, Iverson: 12 (with Prince serving as point forward)
• SG: Hamilton: 18, Iverson: 18, Afflalo: 12
• SF: Prince: 34, Hamilton: 14
• PF: Johnson: 20, Maxiell: 18, McDyess: 10
• C: Wallace: 30, McDyess:14, Brown: 4

Total minutes per player: Stuckey: 36, Iverson: 30, Hamitlon: 32, Afflalo: 12, Prince: 34, Johnson: 20, Maxiell: 18, McDyess: 24, Wallace: 30, Brown: 4. Will Bynum and Walter Herrmann would play in garbage time or if other players are hurt, playing poorly, or in foul trouble.

-Many Piston fans have been begging for a RIP Hamilton trade lately. While the move would alleviate the glut at shooting guard this season, the long term ramifications would be negative. Iverson is a one year rental, so if the Pistons trade Hamilton, they would be looking for a shooting guard this summer. Before his injury, Hamilton played well alongside Stuckey. He and Stuckey should be the backcourt of the future in Detroit.

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A Hall of Fame Backup?

The end of small ball seems imminent. The Pistons have played their best basketball in weeks during their past two games, in large part because an injury to RIP Hamilton forced the team to use a traditional lineup.

Michael Curry has noticed that the Pistons play significantly better defense with two big men on the floor. After yesterday’s game, Curry talked about how much better Rasheed Wallace plays when he has a second big man on the floor. Tayshaun Prince believes that both he and RIP Hamilton have suffered unnecessary wear and tear when they have to defend bigger players. It is obvious to coaches, players, and fans that the Pistons play their best defense with bigger lineups on the court. Curry hinted that a return to a more traditional lineup may be on the way. It appears that Amir Johnson will get the nod at power forward. Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, and Wallace all have secure spots in the starting lineup. The question is which of the Pistons’ all star shooting guards will be sent to the bench.

In a vacuum, the answer would probably be Hamilton. Allen Iverson is better at creating his own shot and is a future hall of famer still capable of huge scoring nights. However, when other factors are taken into consideration, it makes sense to start Hamilton.

The Pistons have plenty of scoring with their starting unit regardless of who starts at off guard. Stuckey, Prince, and Wallace are all quality offensive players who need the ball to be as effective as possible. Iverson’s game is predicated on dominating the ball and attacking defenses on his own. That style of play does not mesh well with players like Stuckey and Prince, but would be perfect alongside backups like Arron Afflalo, Jason Maxiell, and Antonio McDyess. Those three players can make open jumpers, but struggle to create their own offense.

Hamilton, on the other hand, is quickly developing chemistry with Stuckey. Hamilton averages almost four more points per game in games that Stuckey starts at point guard. RIP gets most of his shots within the flow of the offense and has succeeded alongside Prince and Wallace for years. Stuckey and Johnson would essentially fill the roles once held by Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace so the starting unit’s offense should be fairly similar to what the Pistons had earlier in the decade.

Defensively, if the Pistons were to start Stuckey and Iverson, they would be at a size mismatch at both guard positions. Iverson is undersized against almost anyone, while Stuckey would be playing out of position if asked to guard shooting guards. With Hamilton on the court alongside Stuckey, that problem would be solved.

When the Pistons replaced Amir Johnson with Kwame Brown in the starting lineup, part of Michael Curry’s motivation was the need to get bigger after they downsized from Billups to Iverson. If the Pistons go back to Johnson, it would only make sense to compensate by starting a big backcourt in Stuckey and Hamilton.

Another consideration is the future of this franchise. Iverson is probably a one year rental for the Pistons. Hamilton recently signed a contract extension and will be a big part of the team’s future assuming that he is not traded. If the Pistons falter in this season’s playoffs, whichever all start is coming off the bench will probably be an unhappy camper. Star players usually only accept lesser roles when a team is winning (see Owens, Terrell). A peeved Iverson can look for a new team next summer, but an alienated Hamilton is a problem the Pistons should try to avoid.

It is not quite a done deal that the Pistons will revert to a more traditional lineup, but the evidence is promising. Sending the team’s only surefire future Hall of Famer to the bench is best way for the Pistons to regain their status as contenders in the East.

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