Mr. Personality

Tuesday on TNT, Charles Barkley, Chris Webber, and Kenny Smith ranted about Dirk Nowitzki (a few quotes here). Nowitzi credited Denver’s defenders for the way they defend him. The TNT crew argued that no star player should ever concede that any opponent can frustrate him.

One night later, Kobe Bryant squared off against alleged Kobe-stopper Shane Battier. Bryant destroyed Battier, finished with 40 points, and repeatedly shouted “He can’t f***ing guard me” after several baskets of the baskets he scored over Battier. Kobe may have lost his thrown as league MVP, but he maintains the title of “most contrived personality in sports.” Even A-Rod is jealous.

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Dodging a McBullet

At the 24:20 mark this Bill Simmons podcast, where Simmons interviewed Rockets GM Daryl Morey, Simmons asked Morey if he came close to trading Tracy McGrady last summer. During Morey’s response, he named only one team as a potential suitor for T-Mac. “Detroit did have interest [in trading for McGrady.] It just never worked out for both sides,” Morey said. The fact that the Rockets were unable to make a deal work with Detroit is one of the luckiest moments in Piston franchise history. While Iverson has been a disaster in Detroit, acquiring McGrady would have been significantly worse for the Pistons.

Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson have quite a bit in common. Both are former superstars who have failed to adjust to diminishing athleticism. When they play, Iverson and McGrady are both volume shooters who rely far too heavily on contested jump shots. This season, both players have an effective field goal percentage below 44 percent, well below the league average. Neither plays excels on defense or does much to help his team outside of scoring, so if they are shooting that ineffectively, they are marginal players at best.

The parallels do not end there. Both players have missed significant time this season with “injuries.” In both cases, there has been rampant speculation that the amount of time missed and the severity of the injuries do not align. Neither team should be too upset if the players are exaggerating their injuries. The Pistons have been much better without Iverson this year and the same can be said of the Rockets without McGrady.

Despite rapidly declining production, Iverson and McGrady are two of the six highest paid players in the NBA. Contracts also happen to be the point of differentiation between the two players who peaked more than half a decade ago. Allen Iverson’s contract expires this season. His departure will afford the Pistons unrivaled financial flexibility during an offseason in which few teams will be looking to spend money. McGrady, on the other hand, is owed over 23 million dollars next season. Had the Pistons acquired McGrady, their impending cap space would have evaporated.

It is hard to know what trade possibilities were discussed, but if the Rockets passed on an opportunity to deal McGrady for Chauncey Billups, Daryl Morey may have cost his team an NBA Championship. A starting lineup of Billups, Battier, Artest, Scola, and Yao would have rivaled the Lakers as the best in the West. Instead, Houston is just another second-tier team out West.

While the Rockets missed a potential home run, the Pistons avoided hitting into a double play. A trade for McGrady would have made the Pistons worse in the short term and delayed their financial flexibility, when compared to a deal for Iverson. The trade for Allen Iverson has not worked out well for the Pistons. Just know that it could have turned out much worse.

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Crawl to the Playoffs

In the Eastern Conference, there are currently ten teams vying for four playoff spots. Only eight and a half games separate fifth-place Miami from 14th-place Toronto. The disappointing Pistons find themselves in the middle of the fight, which is odd considering how little fight the team has shown in recent games. Here is a breakdown of the ten teams and my assessment of their playoff chances.

Miami Heat (29-26): Despite a negative point margin on the season, the Heat have the fifth-best record in the East. While Jermaine O’Neal is no longer capable of providing the boost many are expecting in Miami, the Heat should have little trouble securing a playoff berth. Between their cushion on the field and lack of threatening challenger, the Heat stand a strong chance to be the worst fifth seed in the history of the current playoff format.
Postseason Chances: 90%

Detroit Pistons (27-27): The Pistons are slumping and the new additions are deservedly taking the blame for failing to provide leadership. The upcoming schedule won’t do the Pistons any favors, but the team should be able to eke out a playoff berth. In an interesting twist, all eight of the games the Pistons will play in April will be against teams on this list.
Postseason Chances: 60%

Philadelphia 76ers (27-28): After initially running circles around opponents without Elton Brand, the Sixers have come back to Earth with four straight losses. They play a road heavy schedule the rest of the way, but should manage to earn the right to be swept by an Eastern Conference powerhouse.
Postseason Chances: 70%

Milwaukee Bucks (28-31): The Bucks have been hammered by injuries, but their talented young players have allowed them to remain competitive. Aside from the Bobcats, the Bucks give the most consistent effort of any team on this list. The Bucks will benefit from a soft schedule the final five weeks of the season.
Postseason Chances: 50%

Chicago Bulls (25-31): The Bulls upgraded their roster at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Vinny Del Negro is still running the show. The Bulls are another team with a friendly schedule from here out.
Postseason Chances: 50%

New Jersey Nets (25-32): The Nets have the third worst point differential in the conference. They also have the worst forwards in the league. Devin Harris will have to be spectacular for the Nets to have a chance.
Postseason Chances: 15%

New York Knicks (24-32): Mike D’Antoni cemented his reputation as a great coach just by keeping this team in the playoff discussion. Any time Larry Hughes is expected to provide a boost, there are serious roster problems at hand. Chris Duhon, Hughes, Quentin Richardson, Wilson Chandler, and Jared Jefferies are all capable of being the eighth best player on a good team. The problem in New York is that instead of having seven superior players, they have three (Lee, Robinson, and Harrington).
Postseason Chances: 20%

Indiana Pacers (24-35): I thought this was a playoff team before the season started. It might have been if the injury bug not stung two thirds of the rotation. When healthy, this team might be the fifth best team in the East.
Postseason Chances: 15%

Charlotte Bobcats (22-34): Larry Brown has done a terrific job with this cast of overpaid role players. The lack of a go-to scorer will keep them out of the playoffs despite stout defense.
Postseason Chances: 20%

Toronto Raptors(22-36): Shawn Marion will provide a big boost in Toronto, but it will be too little too late. This team dug itself a huge hole that it will be unable to dig itself out of.
Postseason Chances: 10%

In the end, just 37 or 38 wins will be enough to secure a playoff berth. Unless Detroit or Philly gets hot, it’s likely that three teams will make the Eastern Conference playoffs with a record below .500.

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Phenomenal Freshmen

The current rookie class is loaded. It is shaping up to be the deepest rookie class in recent memory. The rookies almost defeated the sophomore for the first time in the history of the Rookie Challenge last night. Here’s a breakdown of the impact players in the current rookie class.
(The players and groups are listed in order of how much value I project each player to have in 2011)

Potential Stars

Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago Bulls, (16.12 PER, 1st pick) – The top pick in the draft is leading the Bulls in minutes. He is the present and the future for the once proud franchise. He has the talent to join the likes of Deron Williams, Devin Harris, and Tony Parker as the best young point guards not named Chris Paul.

Greg Oden, C, Portland Trail Blazers, (17.87, 1st in 2007) – The top pick in the 2007 draft is considered a rookie this season because he missed last season with an injury. Oden is already a rebounding monster. If he can develop a few post moves, he has all-star talent.

O.J. Mayo, SG, Memphis Grizzlies, (15.54, 3rd) – Mayo is an incredibly gifted shooter. He already leads the Grizzlies in scoring and should continue to do so for years to come. There is talk of him moving to point guard, but he is probably better-suited to be an off guard. He has the total package at that position.

Building Blocks

Kevin Love, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves, (17.70, 5th) – Love has also been an outstanding rebounder during his rookie season. He is incredibly skilled, but lacks the athleticism to defend elite forwards. Despite his shortcomings, Love’s combination of rebounding ability, strength, and all-around offensive game will allow him to be a valuable NBA player for years to come.

Eric Gordon, SG, Los Angeles Clippers, (14.44, 7th) – Gordon is the only rookie in the conversation with Mayo as far as elite shooters go. The former Hoosier has a picture-perfect stroke. He can also put the ball on the floor and get to the basket. Gordon has been asked to carry a bit too much of the load on a disastrous Clipper team, but he has acquitted himself nicely.

Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder, (16.11, 4th) – Westbrook is uber-athletic. He needs work on his jump shot, but he has the physical skills to be an elite guard in this league. He joins Kevin Durant and Jeff Green to form possibly the best trio of 22 and under players this league has ever seen.

Brook Lopez, C, New Jersey Nets, (17.05, 10th) – Lopez has exceeded expectations more than any other player in the lottery. He is already a solid NBA center at the tender age of 20. Between Lopez and Harris, the Nets are set for a long while at the two toughest positions to fill.

Michael Beasley, SF, Miami Heat, (15.67, 2nd) – Part of the reason the Heat were willing to deal Shawn Marion is that they feel Beasley is ready to take on a larger role. Beasley is ridiculously talented, but there are questions about his defense and shot selection. If he can maintain his scoring output while improving his efficiency, he could soar to the top of this class.

Quality Starters

Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies, (16.09, 48th in 2007) – Gasol has played so well that he has made the trade for his older brother look somewhat respectable. The 24-year-old is among the plethora of quality rookie centers.

Jason Thompson, PF, Sacramento Kings, (13.52, 12th) – The man Joe Dumars allegedly wanted for the Pistons has shown flashed of brilliance on the court. He has cooled after a quick start, but he should be able to form a dynamic frontcourt with Spencer Hawes as the Kings rebuild.

D.J. Augustin, PG, Charlotte Bobcats, (14.45, 9th) – Any rookie point guard who earns trust and praise from Larry Brown has to be taken seriously. Augustin is lightning quick. He should improve quickly under Brown’s tutelage.

Good Backups

Rudy Fernandez, SG, Portland Trail Blazers, (15.55, 24th in 2007) – The comparisons to Manu Ginobili were inevitable for the gifted Spaniard. He has been a dynamo off the bench for Portland. If Brandon Roy continues to block him from the starting lineup, he will compete for Sixth Man of the Year honors regularly.

Marreese Speights, PF, Philadelphia 76ers, (21.06, 16th) – The fact that he ranks this low says heaps about the depth of this rookie class. Speights’ per-minute numbers are awesome. The Florida product will have the opportunity to prove that he can maintain his production in extended minutes now that Elton Brand is on the shelf.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, SF, Milwaukee Bucks, (11.84, 37th) – Mbah a Moute plays great defense and is a strong rebounder. He struggles to do much offensively, but he should stick in the NBA for a decade.

Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers, (17.48, 17th) – Hibbert has been a poor fit on the up-tempo Pacers, but he has been effective in limited minutes. The centers playing in front of Hibbert – Jeff Foster and Rasho Neterovic – are both 32, so Hibbert should have a chance to carve out a larger role in future seasons.

Courtney Lee, SG, Orlando Magic, (10.92, 22nd) – Another player who should benefit from a recent injury, Lee should see time at point guard with Jameer Nelson out. Lee is an excellent defender in the mold Arron Afflalo.

Rotation Players

George Hill, PG, San Antonio Spurs, (12.28, 26th) – Hill has struggled with his shot, but has been solid in other areas for the Spurs. With Gregg Popovich’s help, Hill should develop into a strong backup behind Tony Parker.

JaVale McGee, PF, Washington Wizards, (16.97, 18th) – The Flint, Michigan native has been a bright spot during an otherwise dreary season in Washington. He is long and athletic, but still has plenty of room to improve on both ends of the court.

Nicolas Batum, SF, Portland Trail Blazers, (11.64, 25th) – Batum has had ample opportunity to strut his stuff while Martell Webster tries to come back from injury. The Frenchman can shoot the three and defend. If he can add anything else to his repitorie, he has serious potential.

Jerryd Bayless, PG, Portland Trail Blazers, (10.89, 11th) – The fourth Blazer to appear on this list has been woefully inconsistent. He has the physical tools to produce in this league. It remains to be seen if he can put those tools together.

J.J. Hickson, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers, (14.40, 19th) – Hickson is another player who Dumars was rumored to be interested in. His role should expand as Ben Wallace’s athleticism continues to deteriorate.

Mario Chalmers, PG, Miami Heat, (13.36, 34th) – The former Jayhawk has been forced into a starting role with the Heat. He has a great outside shot, but otherwise has not shown enough to warrant a permanent spot in the starting lineup.

Anthony Morrow, SG, Golden State Warriors, (15.57, Undrafted) – Morrow has shown a deft touch from outside, but he would struggle to replicate his per-minute numbers without the Warriors’ run-and-gun system.

Others to Watch

These players have either been inconsistent, lacked minutes, or some combination of the two.

Ryan Anderson, PF, New Jersey Nets, (13.05, 21st)
Kosta Koufos, C, Utah Jazz, (15.62, 23rd)
Anthony Randolph, PF, Golden State Warriors, (15.52, 14th)
Danilo Gallinari, SF, New York Knicks, (13.69, 6th)
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers, (12.90, 35th)
Joe Alexander, SF, Milwaukee Bucks, (10.52, 8th)
Darrell Arthur, PF, Memphis Grizzlies, (9.65, 27th)

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Fastbreak Buckets 2.12.2009

This edition of Fastbreak Buckets will be an around the league edition since far too many Piston related topics are simply depressing right now.

- Individuals in the Cavalier organization, from the owner to the overpaid former Piston, acted as if a travesty had been committed when Mo Williams was left off the All-Star Team until two spots opened up due to injury. The gist of their argument is that the Cavs have a gaudy record, others teams with similar gaudy records all have multiple All-Stars, therefore they deserve multiple All-Stars. This theory is flawed beyond belief.

First off, the Cavs do have two players worthy of playing in the All-Star Game in LeBron James and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Ilgauskas went down with an injury that kept him out most of January and thus submarined his chance of making the team.

With or without Ilgauskas on the team, Williams simply does not belong. The Cavaliers claim that their players should be rewarded for the team’s success, but the All-Star Game is simply not the correct venue. Teams that win games are rewarded for their success in the spring, when they earn a high seed in the playoffs. The All-Star Game is the prize for the individuals who have had the most success, regardless of their teammates.

The player that many analysts believe was undeservingly given Williams’ spot is Devin Harris. How they can make this claim is baffling. Harris is averaging four more points per game despite attempting just one more field goal a night than Williams. Harris is also well ahead in assists and steals. As a result, Harris’ PER of 22.7 puts the 17.0 mark of Williams to shame. To put that in perspective, that gap in PER is similar to the difference between Allen Iverson with the Pistons and Allen Iverson with Philly in 2002. The fact that Cleveland is 17 games ahead of New Jersey has nothing to do with Cleveland having a superior point guard and everything to do with the difference between playing LeBron James and Bobby Simmons at small forward. It’s bad enough that Harris – an elite point guard – plays for a borderline playoff team because of a lame supporting cast. Compounding his misery by keeping him off the All-Star Team because of that same supporting cast would be excessive.

-One player with a legitimate gripe about not making the All-Star Team is Kevin Durant. Few are paying attention to the lowly Thunder, but their second year small forward has been sensational of late. P.J. Carlesimo played Durant, out of position, at shooting guard last season and at the start of this one. Since Carlesimo was fired and new coach Scott Brooks moved Durant to his natural position – small forward – Durant has been one of the most dominant offensive forces in the game.

In 41 games since Brooks took the clipboard, Durant is averaging 26.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game on 48.8% shooting. He has also making an average of 1.6 three pointers and 6.6 free throws per contest during that stretch. In 16 games from January 9th to February 10th, Durant scored fewer than 27 points only twice. If Durant has not already passed Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce to establish himself as the best small forward not named LeBron James, he appears to be well on his way.

- The injury woes that have hammered the Milwaukee Bucks have come with a pair of blessings in disguise. Two of their young players have emerged as building blocks for the future of the franchise. Ramon Sessions might have been the steal of the 2007 draft based on his recent play. The 56th pick in ’07 draft has been starting in place of the injured Luke Ridnour. In his last five games, Sessions is averaging an incredible 24.8 points, 9.8 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game despite just taking 13.8 shots a night. He has done so by converting 53.6% of his field goal attempts and living at the free throw line to the tune of nearly 12 attempts per game.

The other Buck having a coming out party this season is Charlie Villanueva. After a lackluster first two and a half seasons in Milwaukee, he has exploded into 2009. Since the calendar turned, he is averaging over 20 points, nearly seven rebounds, and roughly a block and a steal per game, despite turning the ball over just one a half times per contest. He has made over half of his field goal tries and better than 40% of his 89 three point attempts during 22 games this year. The strong play of Sessions and Villanueva is the primary reason the Bucks are hanging in the playoff race despite a beaten up roster that was lackluster to begin with.

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Victim of Their Own Success

The Pistons may be a victim of their own success. For all the talk about coaching and chemistry, talent is the biggest determinant of success. Teams with a superstar – or better yet, multiple superstars – have a major step up on the competition.

The problem for the Pistons is that most superstars are claimed at the top of the draft. Three of the NBA’s top-five teams – the Magic, Spurs, and Cavaliers – are built around players who they drafted first overall. Among the eight NBA teams with at least 31 wins this season, five have a player whom they selected with the top pick. Among the top-26 NBA players in PER, nearly all of them were high drafts picks.



Of the 26 players leading the NBA in PER, only nine were selected later than sixth in the draft. Of those nine players, four are foreign players, three of whom (Nowitzki, Parker, and Ginobili) were drafted at a time when NBA teams were generally undervaluing foreign prospects.

Among those 26 players, 17 are still with their original teams. Two others (Garnett, Jefferson) are only no longer with their original teams because they were traded for each other. O’Neal and Boozer both used free agency to leave teams that would have preferred to keep them. That leaves Pau Gasol and Devin Harris as the only members of the league’s top-21 players, based on PER, who were traded away in a deal that did not net another top-21 player. Not surprisingly, there was outrage over the Gasol deal, while the Harris deal was a miscalculation by Dallas.

In order to nab a star, a team’s best bet is to lose enough games to earn a high lottery pick. Occasionally a team can strike gold with a later pick; however the odds of succeeding in that regard are poor. There are alternative methods to building a contender – such as developing castoffs like Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace into stars – but this tactic fails far more often than not. Of the past 25 NBA Champions, the best player on every single one of those teams was a player drafted in the top-5 (Bird, Magic, Isiah, Jordan, Olajuwon, Duncan, O’Neal, Billups, Wade, and Garnett).

As a result of the Pistons’ recent success, they have been drafting in the wrong half of the first round far too often to find a superstar. They were handed a gift from the basketball gods when a 1997 trade gave the Pistons the second overall pick in the 2003 draft; however Joe Dumars made a rare blunder and botched the opportunity by selecting Darko Milicic. The Milicic pick was the only top-14 pick the Pistons have had in the past seven drafts.

The trade for Allen Iverson will be worth every loss if Dumars is able to use the resulting cap flexibility to land a superstar. If not, the Pistons will likely have to enter the league’s basement if they ever hope to return to its penthouse.

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Trade Season

Trade rumor season is in full force. With the trade deadline less than two weeks away, teams must determine a course of action for the remainder of the season. Some teams are looking for the piece that could potentially put them over the top; others are looking to clear salary, while a few simply want to clean up chemistry problems.

The Pistons should be trying to acquire young talent so long as they avoid doing too much harm to their impending salary cap flexibility. Rodney Stuckey is probably the only untouchable on the roster, but it’s hard to imagine that Joe Dumars would deal Tayshaun Prince. Also, after the financial sacrifice Antonio McDyess made to return to the Pistons, there is no way Dumars would trade McDyess unless the veteran requests a move. With that in mind, I went to work with ESPN’s Trade Machine.

Trade Idea #1: Pistons trade Rasheed Wallace, Amir Johnson, Arron Afflalo, and Will Bynum to Phoenix for Amar’e Stoudemire and Goran Dragic.

The Pistons could do their 2010 shopping early, although they would be forced to pay a steep price. Stoudemire has ruffled feathers in Phoenix with his lackadaisical defense and poor rebounding. Word out of Phoenix is that he is unhappy with Terry Porter and does not like the idea that Shaquille O’Neal is the focal point of the offense. The Pistons would be making a serious gamble by giving up two of its young assets to acquire the mercurial Stoudemire, but they would have a better chance to contend for the next two seasons and if things do not work out, they would actually be in even better position for the summer of 2010.

From Phoenix’s standpoint, this deal makes a lot of sense if they determine that the Nash-Stoudemire-O’Neal tandem is hopeless. Wallace is a better than Stoudemire alongside O’Neal because of his defense and long-range shooting. Phoenix injects some youth into a franchise that could otherwise be dreadful after 2010. Lastly, Bynum would upgrade the backup point guard position while ridding the Suns of Dragic’s three-year deal.

Trade Idea #2: Pistons trade Allen Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, Amir Johnson, and Arron Afflalo to Toronto for Chris Bosh, Jermaine O’Neal, and Joey Graham.

The Raptors are in serious trouble of entering the league’s basement for the first half of the next decade. O’Neal has not provided the defensive lift many had hoped for and the Raptors have taken a step back this season. The team is also short on assets and young talent. Chris Bosh has to be salivating at the prospect of getting out of this mess. If the Raptors do not trade him, he might do just that in 2010. By making this trade, the Raptors would clear O’Neal’s contract off the books a year early, add two young pieces, and get a head start on re-building.

From this Pistons’ standpoint, this might be the only plausible deal that could move them back into contention for this season. The Pistons would make a run at a title in 2009 and 2010 with a starting lineup of Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Bosh and O’Neal backed up by Bynum, Graham, Maxiell and McDyess. After the 2010 season, O’Neal’s massive contract would come off the books while Bosh would become a free agent. The Pistons would probably want to re-sign Bosh, but if that plans fails, they would have plenty of cap space to work with.

Trade Idea #3: Pistons trade Tayshaun Prince, Jason Maxiell, and Walter Herrmann to Toronto for Chris Bosh.

Again, the Raptors only consider this deal if they are convinced they are going to lose Bosh in 2010. They would add two players to build around in Prince and Maxiell, both of whom are under contract into the next decade.

The Pistons would add the superstar big man they have craved while making room in the starting lineup for Hamilton. Losing Prince would hurt, but adding a superstar like Bosh would clearly come at a price. At the end of this season, the Pistons would have a core of Stuckey, Hamilton, and Bosh plus a ton of available cap room.

Trade Idea #4a: Pistons trade Rasheed Wallace to Houston for Ron Artest, Carl Landry, and Luther Head.

The Pistons would not have much interest in Artest, but he has an expiring contract which they could either flip or buy out. The other option would be to send Artest somewhere as part of a three way trade (Trade Possibility #4b). Even if the Pistons limit the deal to two teams, they would acquire a nice young piece in Landry without doing too much damage to their salary cap flexibility.

The Rockets have a glut on the wings with McGrady, Artest, and Battier. Using Artest to upgrade the power forward position would enhance their chances of making an extended playoff run this spring.

Trade Possibility #5.

I like this deal because the Pistons improve their core without losing Stuckey, Afflalo, Prince, or Johnson. (If I’m making up crazy trades with the trade machine, I have the right to dream, right?)

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Disaster in Dallas

The NBA team in the worst situation going forward may be none other than the Dallas Mavericks. The assertion may seem odd considering that the Mavs have won at least 51 games in each of the last eight seasons, including three seasons with at least 60 wins. The Mavericks are 24-18 this season and the cast of characters is mainly the same, so it may sound outrageous to compare them unfavorably to franchises like the Grizzlies and Clippers.

With that said, virtually every team in the league has a chance to make a playoff run this season, young talent, or impending flexibility to re-make the roster. The exception is the Mavericks. Dallas may approach 50 wins this year, but it is more likely than not to be the odd team out of the playoffs out West. There are nine good teams in the West this season and the Mavericks are the ninth best.

As far as the next couple of years are concerned, Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki are future hall of famers, but Kidd is a shadow of his former self and Nowitzki should start to decline soon, if he has not already. Josh Howard and Jason Terry are very good secondary players, but there is not enough around those two and Nowitzki to match up with the elite teams out West.

The team’s prospects going forward are even worse. Erick Dampier, Jason Terry, and Matt Carroll are all locked into preposterous long term contracts. The trio is owed a combined 28 million dollars in the 2011 season. Terry comes off the books that season, but Dampier and Carroll are on the hook for 15 million in 2012. Jerry Stackhouse also has a ridiculous contract; he’s set to make seven million this season and seven and a quarter million next year. As a result of those four contracts, the Mavericks have little ability to add to their core through trades or free agency any time in the near future.

That core may have maxed out its potential as a borderline playoff team with no chance of making serious noise in the playoffs. The trade of Devin Harris for Jason Kidd crippled the franchise. Harris has emerged as the best point guard in the Eastern conference this season, while Kidd has deteriorated into an average starter nearing the end of his career. This leads to the Maverick’s biggest problem.

The Mavericks have amassed less young talent than any team in recent memory. Among players younger than 28, only Brandon Bass belongs in an NBA rotation. Bass is an undersized big man in the mold of Jason Maxiell. After Bass, the team’s two most accomplished “prospects” are JJ Barea and Gerald Green. Both players have shown the ability to be competent offensively, but they are also poor defenders who project as no more than 8th or 9th men in a playoff rotation. Compounding the problem is the fact that Dallas will be drafting in the teens this year and traded away its 2010 first round pick to acquire Kidd.

To recap, the Mavericks are a borderline playoff team right now. They have little, if any, room for internal improvement. Their payroll is tied up with overpaid role players for at least the next three seasons unless the team moves Josh Howard of Dirk Nowitzki. If it does move either of the two, the Mavs would fade to mediocrity. The Mavericks will have a mid-first round pick this summer and have no first round pick after the 2010 season. Unless Mark Cuban can work a miracle, it is hard to imagine his Mavericks winning a playoff series any time in the next five seasons.

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Larry Brown Strikes (Out) Again

The Phoenix Suns and Charlotte Bobcats agreed to a five player deal that will send Jason Richardson, Jared Dudley, and a future second round pick to Phoenix in exchange for Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, and Sean Singletary. The deal is cover-your-eyes awful from the Bobcats perspective. In all likelihood, Larry Brown is up to his old tricks again. Brown has a reputation for complaining about his players and constantly requesting trades. Occasionally, his front office will give in and usually some other team benefits greatly. Brown has shown a preference for players who play hard as opposed to those who play well. This deal appears to be a perfect illustration.

From a financial perspective, the deal is basically a wash. The contracts values are roughly equal for this season and in 2010. Charlotte saves about seven and a half million dollars in 2011, but will have to shell out an additional nine million in 2012 as a result of the deal.

Although the dollars might match up, there is a major disparity in the talent changing hands. Richardson is a great secondary scoring option who should complement the Sun’s attack perfectly. Amare and Shaq draw constant double teams and when the Suns spread the floor with players like Richardson, Nash, Barbosa, and Barnes, they should be impossible to defend. Richardson is only 27 years old, so while his contract is clearly bloated, it is not nearly as bad as some others around the league. In Jared Dudley, the Suns acquire an intriguing young player who can help fill the void left by Diaw.

The players Phoenix sent out are not nearly as inspiring. Raja Bell had a nice four year stretch – beginning in Utah – where he was an excellent role player. In his prime, he was an elite defender who knocked down enough of his open jumpers to help space the floor on offense. His prime, however, is clearly behind him. Offensively, he has become nearly invisible on the floor. According to John Hollinger’s “usage rate,” Bell has used only 12% of Phoenix’s possession while he is on the floor this season. By contract, Richardson used nearly 24% of Bobcat possessions. Bell’s PER, which peaked at 12.94 in 2006 is on pace to decline for the third consecutive season and sits at a meager 9.27. Defensively, Bell has lost a step and in the process has regressed from an excellent defender to one who is merely good. He remains tough and competes hard every night, but when an undersized player loses his quickness, there is not much left. The Suns have actually allowed more points per possession with Bell on the court this season.

Boris Diaw had an excellent season for Phoenix in 2006, was rewarded with a massive six year contract, and has played like a solid backup ever since. He is an excellent passer and a reliable scorer when he is involved, but he seems to disappear for long stretches and is a poor rebounder for his size. In exchange for being a slightly below average NBA player, Diaw will be paid nine million dollars per season through 2012. Singletary and the future second round draft pick included in the deal are both relatively inconsequential.

Through this trade, Phoenix took a major step toward securing a playoff spot in a loaded Western conference that will likely have a very good team watching the playoffs from home. Charlotte, on the other hand, presumably took a major step toward appeasing curmudgeon Larry Brown. Their fans will not be nearly as pleased when they see the results.

(Note: Thanks to ESPN.com's John Hollinger and 82games.com for stats)

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