Catching Up: Dumars Says “No” to Rajon Rondo

Reports circulated last week that the Pistons turned down a Celtic offer of Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen for Rodney Stuckey, RIP Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons apparently rejected the deal without much hesitation, but the deal is much too appealing to have merited such little consideration.

The current Piston roster is nowhere near contention. Adding Ben Gordon and either Carlos Boozer or Charlie Villanueva (a likely summer plan for Joe Dumars) would put the Pistons in the playoffs, but leave the team well short of beating Cleveland or Orlando. The aforementioned players are all poor defenders and neither Stuckey nor Hamilton would do much to compensate.

Part of the appeal to the deal would be the Pistons’ ability to upgrade from Stuckey to Rondo at point guard. While Stuckey has the potential to be a star, Rondo is already there. Both point guards are 23, but Rondo’s PER was four points higher last season. Rondo is also among the best defensive guards in the world.

The other benefit of the trade would be financial. This may be a tough pill for Piston fans to swallow, but given the right offer, the Pistons should jump at an opportunity to rid themselves of two players, Hamilton and Prince, set to earn big bucks in their 30s. Hamilton is 31 while Prince will turn 30 this season. Hamilton and Prince are on the payroll for roughly 23 million combined in 2011, followed by 12.65 million per season for Hamilton through 2013. Meanwhile, Ray Allen’s contract expires in 2010.

Maintaining the status quo ensures a half-hearted push toward relevance for the next few seasons while Hamilton and Prince fade toward retirement. The prescient move would be to aim for long-term success and shoot for an even higher ceiling. Removing the remaining overpaid players from the previous era would be a necessary step to do so. The Pistons would have to give Rondo a contract extension beginning in the 2011 season – a season in which Stuckey will still be on his rookie contract – but the overall financial ramifications of the deal would still strongly favor the Pistons.

Assuming the Pistons give Rondo a contract extension of roughly 12 million per season, the Pistons would create roughly 15 million dollars in additional cap space for the summer of 2010. Through this trade, the Pistons would have Rondo, whichever free agents they acquire this summer, and enough cap space to be a serious player in the much-ballyhooed summer of 2010. With the right maneuvering, Dumars could forge a foundation that could contend into the next decade.

While the deal appears attractive on the surface, there are legitimate concerns on Detroit’s end. There have been questions about Rajon Rondo’s character. Pairing him with Michael Curry may not be a smart fit, as Curry did a poor job managing difficult personalities last season. Also, for the deal to be worthwhile, the Pistons will have to find a player willing to take their money and worthy of earning it on the free agent market.

While the above concerns are legitimate, the Pistons need to at least be open to any and all possibilities for reshaping the roster. For the Pistons to return to elite status, Dumars must either drastically overhaul the roster or add a superstar. Swapping perimeter players with Boston accomplishes the former and puts the team in position to achieve the latter during the summer of 2010.

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21 Reasons to Hope

The Pistons are an uninspiring 21-21 since the arrival of Allen Iverson. With pessimism spreading through Piston Nation, it’s time to run through the 21 reasons for Piston fans to be optimistic.

1. Rodney Stuckey. Stuckey is already a very good player, but he is on the fast track to stardom. The second year guard plays like a poor man’s cross between Dwyane Wade and Chauncey Billups. At the rate he’s progressing, “poor man’s” might be taken out of the analogy soon.

2. Draft Pick. The Pistons are playing just poorly enough that they might end up with a decent draft pick. When Dumars has drafted between picks 15 and 27, he has landed Tayshaun Prince, Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, and Arron Afflalo. The only pick in that range he would like to have back was the Carlos Delfino pick of 2003. This season, the Pistons will likely end up drafting in the late teens.

3. Reduced Wear and Tear. The Piston veterans have experienced grueling playoff runs each of the past seven seasons. An extended summer vacation may help revitalize them for future seasons.

4. April Will Matter. For the first since 2003, the Pistons might actually play April games that impact their playoff position. Only once since 2003 has an Eastern conference team finished fewer than five games away from the Pistons in the standings. The exception was 2007, when the Pistons finished three games ahead of the Cavaliers.

5. Joe Dumars. In Joe We (Should) Trust. He has been phenomenal as the general manager in Detroit. Even when he has made a mistake, he has been quick to compensate with a brilliant maneuver. If anyone can fix this mess, it is Dumars.

6. Iverson’s Days are Numbered. All-Star Allen Iverson has said he plans to test the free agent market this summer. That seems like a good idea, since the Pistons surely will not want to retain him. Aside from the possibility of addition by subtraction, this seems like a perfect opportunity for Bill Simmons’ “Ewing Theory” to strike.

7. Cap Space. When Iverson leaves, cap space will arrive. The last three times Dumars made serious plays in free agency, he landed Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess, and Nazr Mohammad. Two for three is a light years better than most organizations perform with free agent money.

8. Experimenting. Michael Curry has changed starting lineups and rotations more times than I’d care to remember. While that may have had disastrous effects on the team’s performance thus far, logic suggests that if he continues to test new ideas, eventually something should work. Maybe he should try benching Iverson.

9. Jason Maxiell. The “Baby Eater” is under contract through 2013. That gives him plenty of time to consume babies and do things like this.

10. No Losing in the Conference Finals. This is far from a given, but it looks like the Pistons streak of ending their season with a game-six loss in the conference finals will end at three. The preseason goal was to end the streak via improvement; however the Pistons appear to be taking a different approach.

11. Underdog Status. The Pistons of old relished the underdog mentality. They used perceived disrespect as a motivational tool. The Pistons have now regained underdog status. Step two is regaining underdog intensity.

12. Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons’ iron man has been one of the elite small forwards in the NBA for the last six seasons and has shown no signs of slowing down.

13. No More Flipping the Switch. For years – specifically the last two – there was talk the Pistons would flip a proverbial switch and play hard only when motivated. The current incarnation of the Piston is not good enough to earn such reports.

14. The Coaching Can Only Improve. As far as coaching goes, it is difficult to imagine the Pistons could possibly employ someone who performs worse than Curry has so far. Curry will have to improve or he will be fired, either of which would be progress.

15. Kwame’s Out. Michael Curry recently made it clear – through words and actions – that Kwame Brown will be spending the majority of games glued to the bench. Brown appears to finally be in a role that suits his talents: fifth big man on a team that typically plays four.

16. Longer Summer. The Pistons have kept their fans busy throughout May and often into June for the past six seasons. This summer, Piston fans should have much more time to enjoy the sun.

17. Arron Afflao. “Aflac” is a keeper who should play a much bigger role next season, when fellow shooting guard Allen Iverson departs. Afflalo’s defense and outside shooting would be valuable on any team.

18. No More Arrogance. The media has been annoyed with a perceived arrogance from the Pistons in recent seasons. One way to cure arrogance is to stop winning. In that sense, the Pistons appear to be fixing one of their character flaws.

19. No More Flip. At least before the season, less Flip Saunders seemed like a good thing.

20. Fun Gossip. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey has chosen to chronicle the Pistons’ struggles like a soap opera. Over the past two weeks, he has written articles – which may or may not be factual – about Dumars trying to trade Prince, dead team spirits, players lacking confidence, and a team that has little respect or trust in its coach. His sources are anonymous and his credibility is waning, but there is some entertainment value.

21. Amir Johnson. The 21st reason for Pistons fans to be optimistic is the continued development of one of basketball’s most talented 21-year olds. The young forward is already a game charger on the glass and with his defense. There are questions about his offense, but with time and opportunity, he might be better on that end than some anticipate.

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Who Should Close? (Non-Tigers Edition)

Now that the Pistons seem to have settled on a starting lineup, Michael Curry faces an even more important question: which five players will be on the court to finish close games? In the first three games since Curry moved Hamilton to the bench, the outcome of the game has dictated the finishing lineup for him. The games against Toronto and Dallas were not close in the fourth quarter and the closing lineup was irrelevant. In the game against Houston, the Pistons trailed by 15 in the fourth quarter, so when the score tightened up, Curry elected to stick with the players who led the comeback.

Should the Pistons play a close game sometime in the near future, Curry will face an interesting dilemma. Two players – Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess – appear to be safe. They are the team’s best interior players and Curry values their defense, rebounding, and outside shooting.

The remaining three positions are less clear. Tayshaun Prince is the team’s best perimeter defender and probably its best overall player. He almost definitely should be in the game down the stretch.

RIP Hamilton has been the focus of the Pistons’ offense down the stretch for the past several years. Among returning Pistons, he was by far the most effective clutch* performer last season. Curry also promised Hamilton roughly 30 minutes per game. Hamilton has been entering games roughly nine minutes into each half, so he has to be on the floor the entire second and fourth quarters in order to reach the aforementioned 30-minute mark.

Allen Iverson has been the go-to guy down the stretch for the Pistons most of this year. He was acquired because of his ability to break down a defense – precisely the type of skill that is most useful at the end of close games, when defenses tighten up.

Rodney Stuckey is the best point guard on the team. He also appears to be the centerpiece Joe Dumars would like to build the team around. Since the Pistons seem to be making moves with an eye toward the future, the team needs to ensure that its youngest star gains experience in clutch situations.

Prince, Hamilton, Iverson, and Stuckey all have very compelling cases to be on the court when the game is on the line. There is no easy answer for Curry. As far as egos are concerned, the safest option – benching Stuckey – may very well be the worst option. Part of the reason the Pistons traded Chauncey Billups was that the team wanted Stuckey to take the reins of the franchise and receive on the job training. It would be foolish of the Pistons to expand Stuckey’s role, only to make him watch the most important moments of a game from the bench.

The strategy that makes the most sense is for Curry to ride the hot hand between Iverson and Hamilton. Whichever shooting guard is having a better game should earn the opportunity to finish the game. If either Stuckey or Prince is way off his game, there are situations where the struggling player should sit, however those two players are able to impact a game in so many ways that it would be difficult to take either out of a close game.

Neither Iverson or Hamilton will like the fact that they will occasionally be seated during crunch time. Hopefully they will understand that if the Pistons are going to accomplish something they have not done often lately – win – they need a balanced lineup that only has room for one of them on the court.

*Clutch is defined by 82games.com as any point in the 4th quarter or overtime where there is less than five minutes left and neither team is ahead by more than five points

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Midseason Report Card (Part I)

At 24-17 the Pistons have reached the mid-point of their season. That means it is time for midseason grades. Grades are based upon how well players have performed relative to expectations thus far in the 2008-2009 season. Today I’ll take a look at the starters. Check back this weekend to see grades for the reserves.

Starters

Rodney Stuckey: After a promising rookie season, there was hope that Stuckey would emerge as an elite backup for the Pistons. He struggled to find his rhythym during the first few weeks of the season, but he finished November strong and has not looked back. Stuckey earned a promotion to the starting lineup in December and he has risen to the challenge. The second year guard leads the Pistons in PER and has greatly improved his jump shot and his defense since his rookie season. Stuckey appears to be on the fast track to stardom. Grade: A-

Allen Iverson: Iverson came over in the much-discussed trade for Chauncey Billups. While it was clear that Iverson could not match Billups’ ability to defend or run an offense, the hope was that Iverson would be a superior scorer. So far, that has not materialized. Iverson is playing more minutes per game and taking more shots per game than Billups, but is averaging fewer points per game thanks to a huge disparity in true shooting percentage (59.1% for Billups, 51.0% for Iverson). Iverson has hit some huge shots (vs. OKC, at LAC) but also has missed his share of potentially game-altering shots (at POR, vs. CHA). Overall, Iverson has been a disappointment, but there is a chance he will begin to play better with the new lineup that should give him more opportunities to score. Grade: D+

Tayshaun Prince: When Prince was forced to play out of position at power forward, he struggled mightily. Thankfully, he has been returned to small forward. In the games that Prince has played small forward so far this season, he has been awesome. With Billups gone, Prince has emerged as the best player on the Pistons this season. Had he spent the entire season at small forward, there is a good chance he would be an all-star. He still has an outside chance to make the team if the East squad catches the injury bug. Grade: A-

Amir Johnson: Johnson’s minutes have yo-yoed up and down all season. Likewise, his production has been wildly inconsistent. He began the season as a starter and played fairly well as the starting line’s garbage man. Johnson was then moved to the bench in favor of Kwame Brown and his minutes and production both fell off – save for a strong three-game stretch to end November. Johnson was squeezed out of the rotation for much of December, but when an injury to RIP Hamilton allowed Johnson to re-enter the starting unit, he responded with two weeks of great defense, strong rebounding, and far too much fouling. Eventually the foul problems began to affect his performance. He is currently mired in an ineffective rut in which he has more fouls than points in January. Johnson recently returned to the starting lineup so it should be interesting to track his continued progress. Grade: B-

Rasheed Wallace: Wallace has played lethargic basketball for years, but he taken that to a new level this season. To say that Wallace appears to be going through the motions offensively would be generous. Occasionally he decides to saunter into the post, but more often he sets a screen or two and then drifts behind the three point line for the remainder of the possession. Wallace is an effective long-range shooter and he plays sturdy defense, but with a little intensity he could do so much more. Grade: B-

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Learning in Victory (Part II)

-Tayshaun Prince belongs at small forward. Prince has started 24 games this season at small forward and eight at power forward. In the games Prince started at small forward, he averaged 15.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.1 turnovers while shooting 46.1% from the field, including 41.5% on 1.7 three-point attempts per game. When starting at power forward, he averaged 10.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2.1 turnovers while shooting 39.8%. When he started at power forward, he did not make a single three pointer and he took fewer than half as many free throw attempts per game. Prince is also much more effective defending small forwards than power forwards.

Prince plays power forward when the Pistons go to small ball, usually because Curry wants his three scoring guards – Stuckey, Iverson, and Hamilton – on the court together. When this happens, Prince becomes an afterthought on offense as the guards look for shots. Prince and Stuckey are the two best Pistons, so it is important that Prince is put in position to succeed. That means he should be a focal point of the offense and that he needs to play almost exclusively at small forward.

-Stuckey tracker: Stuckey has continued his assault on the league and his recent point totals have been awesome. The Pistons are now 13-3 in games that Stuckey starts. The team is 7-0 when Stuckey plays at least 37 minutes. He has averaged 17.8 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.8 rebounds on better than 50% field goal shooting as a starter.

-Kwame Brown belongs in the Elden Campbell/Dale Davis memorial “backup big man who can defend great low post scorers, but is otherwise useless.” When Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess both return to full strength, Brown should return to the bench. He does a great job defending opposing big men, but he is a liability offensively. The Pistons should play Brown when they face players like Andrew Bynum, Shaq, Al Jefferson, and Tim Duncan. Otherwise, he should be the odd man out in a four man frontcourt rotation featuring Wallace, McDyess, Johnson, and Maxiell.

-Jason Maxiell could be really good, if he were only taller. He tipped or just missed numerous rebounds and passes the past few games. Maxiell is a productive role player, but his lack of height hinders him. His inability to defend the taller Garnett killed the Pistons in last season’s playoffs. Maxiell is mediocre defensive rebounder – as opposed to a great one— because he is undersized compared to other power forwards. If Maxiell was 6’9, he would be one of the best power forwards in basketball. Instead, he is merely a very good backup.

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Fastbreak Buckets 12.24.08

-Two of the biggest differences between Flip Saunders and Michael Curry were supposed to be that Curry would play young players and Curry would stop his players from complaining to the officials. Two months into the Curry era, the results have been hit and miss, with more misses than hits.

Young guards Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo have been given plenty of minutes. Stuckey’s development has been the biggest success of Curry’s coaching career thus far. On the other hand, young bigs Jason Maxiell and especially Amir Johnson are not playing nearly enough. Johnson is racking up healthy DNPs despite posting an impressive PER and the best net +/- numbers of any Piston other than Rasheed Wallace.

Also, to date, Curry has failed in his attempt to stem the complaining to officials. Wallace and RIP Hamilton are picking up technicals at a manic rate. The Pistons are fifth in the NBA in technical fouls.

-The first step toward fixing a problem is realizing that one exists. Coach Curry appears to be headed in the right direction with both of the aforementioned issues. He told The Detroit News that he plans to pull Allen Iverson and Tayshaun Prince midway through the first quarter in favor of a bigger lineup. He then plans to re-insert Iverson and Prince as part of a bigger lineup to start the second quarter. The moves should allow Maxiell and Johnson to see minutes at power forward while Will Bynum would effectively be eliminated from the rotation. These move makes sense. In the same article, there is talk that the Pistons are trying to cut back on technical fouls.

-Stuckey tracker: In the 13 games since Thanksgiving, Stuckey is averaging 15.5 points, 7.0 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 2.0 turnovers per game. He has made 55.6% of his field goal attempts and nine three pointers for an effective field goal percentage of 58.7%. His PER is at 19.2 on the season and is surely in the mid 20s since Thanksgiving. The man can flat out ball.

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Fastbreak Buckets: 12.19.09

-Stuckey tracker: In the ten games since Thanksgiving, Stuckey is averaging 13.4 points, 7.9 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 2.1 turnovers per game. He is shooting 53% from the floor, and has made half of his 14 three point attempts. Stuckey has also played very solid defense for the Pistons. While he will probably never be an elite defender, he is an above average defensive point guard and still has room to improve.

One clear benefit of the Iverson trade was that it opened up the point guard role for Stuckey. In theory, this should expedite his development as he should get a full season’s worth of on the job training. On the flip side of that coin, Stuckey no longer has Billups as a tutor and the trade has resulted in a rotation that will squeeze Amir Johnson’s minutes.

There was a stretch during November where Stuckey was often the worst player on the court. He was pressing at times and appeared hesitant at others. He had a miserable time trying to stay in front of Devin Harris against New Jersey and then was set back by a pair of medical problems. He suffered a dizzy spell during a game against Boston and took a hard fall after a collision with Shaq in Phoenix. It is impossible to know how much of his struggles can be traced to those two instances, but there is a good chance they contributed.

For whatever reason, Stuckey turned a corner in his development three weeks ago and has not looked back yet. As a result of his recent strong play, Stuckey’s PER is up to 17.34, a hugely impressive number for a 22 year old who fell to the middle of the first round in 2007. Stuckey is not a star yet, but he appears to be well on his way.

-Pistons fans should not get any crazy ideas a result of the team’s three game win streak. The Pistons squeaked past a mediocre Indiana team at home, barely held on against a bad Charlotte team, and then beat a horrible Washington team at the Palace. None of the three victories were particularly impressive, although there were encouraging signs. Stuckey and Iverson both had their best weeks of the season, while RIP Hamilton played some of his better basketball since the trade. Antonio McDyess also played well and showed no ill effects from his five week hiatus. This weekend’s games against Utah and Atlanta should be a much better indicator of this team’s ability.

-In the four games since the Pistons switched to a small ball lineup, they have been outrebounded by an average of 7.8 rebounds per game. Poor rebounding is a recipe for disaster in the playoffs and the Pistons must find a way to correct this problem if they hope to advance in this season’s playoffs. Amir Johsnon leads the team in rebound rate* and last season finished behind only Nazr Mohammed, who is no longer on the roster. Johnson also finished with the team lead in 2007. He has not played in the last four games.

(*Rebound rate is the percentage of missed shots a player rebounds while on the court)

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Allen Iverson: Better Off the Ball

Allen Iverson put together his best stretch of the season this past week. The move from point guard to shooting guard has been a big reason for his success. Despite impressive assist numbers, Iverson does not belong at point guard. True point guards – such as Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul, and Steve Nash – excel at controlling the pace of the game, feeding a hot hand, and keeping their teammates involved in the offense. Those players consistently make good decisions on the court and possess the leadership skills necessary to lead a team.

For all of his gifts, Iverson has never shown the ability manage games. Iverson excels at making plays for others with his ability to break down defenses; however he thinks like a playmaker instead of a distributor.

Rodney Stuckey, on the other hand, has shown excellent game awareness since being inserted into the starting lineup. Stuckey has opened games by getting his teammates involved. Later in the game, when Stuckey’s teammates have found a rhythm, Stuckey begins to assert himself. He is averaging ten assists per game since he was named a starter. The Pistons’ point guard duties should be in good hands with Stuckey for the rest of this decade and most of the next one.

With Stuckey running the show, Iverson has been brilliant offensively. In the four games since Stuckey became a starter, Iverson is averaging 19.5 points and 5.5 assists per game with a 58.3% effective field goal percentage*. Iverson has been liberated from the burden of playing point guard and the early returns are positive.

*Effective field goal percentage is determined by (FG+0.5*3P)/FGA. It is a measure of field goal percentage that accounts for the additional point that results from a made three pointer.

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Fastbreak Buckets 12.13.08

-During an interview on “The Stoney and Wojo Show” Thursday, Michael Curry explained that RIP is struggling to adjust to fewer shot attempts. (Listen here). Curry has also said that RIP needs to adjust to fewer minutes. Curry’s theories are interesting; unfortunately they are contradicted by facts.

Hamilton is actually playing slightly more minutes per game this season compared to last. As far as field goal attempts are concerned, RIP is shooting 0.3 fewer field goals per game, but is more than compensating with an extra 1.5 free throw attempts per game. RIP is clearly adjusting to life without Billups, but there is no need for Curry to contrive additional transitions.

-Rodney Stuckey made an eye-opening four three pointers against Indiana. He is blossoming as a starter and has improved greatly in just the past few weeks. Early this year he struggled to determine when he should look to score and when he should pass. The results were a low field goal percentage and a high rate of both turnovers and offensive fouls. Part of his early struggles can be attributed to the dizzy spell he suffered against Boston and the hard foul he took from Shaquille O’Neil a week later.

However, Stuckey turned a corner against a few weeks ago and has not looked back. Since Thanksgiving, Stuckey is averaging 12.9 points, 7.3 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.6 steals and just 2.1 turnovers, while playing 27.4 minutes per game. He has converted 52% of his field goals, including five for 11 from long range, during the eight-game stretch.

The two most encouraging aspects of Stuckey’s play have been his jump shot and his decision-making. Stuckey looks more confident and has been much more accurate on perimeter shots recently. The big question mark with Stuckey has always been his jumper. If he continues to knock down 18-footers along with the occasional three-ball, he can be a star. Stuckey also seems to be learning when to attack and when to set up his teammates.

-A longer post about small ball is on the way, but in the meantime, here are two small ball-related noted from the Pacer game:

1) Amir Johnson did not play against Indiana and Jason Maxiell was limited to 14 minutes. In those 14 minutes, Maxiell grabbed three offensive rebounds. The rest of the Pistons combined for two offensive rebounds the entire game. Johnson and Maxiell are fourth and sixth, respectively, among 318 qualified players in offensive rebound rate – the percentage of a team’s missed shots that a player rebounds while in the game.

2) I sent an E-Mail to Need4Sheed before yesterday’s game and made the following statement: “Here's hoping Curry is smart enough to abandon small ball before Granger lights up RIP.” Apparently the message was not relayed to Michael Curry, who elected to let RIP defend Granger most of the game. Granger responded with 42 points on just 21 shots.

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