One Step Back, How Many Forward?

It would be easy to use the Pistons’ play in the opening games of the playoffs as an indictment of the trade for Allen Iverson. Based on the way Chauncey Billups dominated his first playoff game this season, it seems crazy that the Joe Dumars traded him for a player who was mostly trouble for the Pistons. However, when the big picture is taken into account, the start to the playoffs has justified the trade more substantially than anything that happened during the regular season.

The Pistons have been utterly dominated by Cleveland. Save for the fourth quarter of game two – a quarter in which Cleveland relaxed with a 27-point lead – the Cavaliers have outscored the Pistons in every quarter. In game one, Cleveland did whatever it wanted offensively. The following game, the Cavaliers shut down the Piston offense; Detroit did not reach 19 points in any of the first three quarters.

What the Cavalier domination has proven is that Detroit is nowhere close to fielding a contender. While Chauncey Billups easily would have been the best player on the team, the Pistons had no chance to contend this season, with or without Mr. Big Shot.

Had the Iverson trade not happened, Billups likely would have led Detroit to a top-four seed and a second round exit. Dumars saw the writing on the wall and elected to jumpstart the rebuilding process by creating financial flexibility. The Pistons could have slowly faded into oblivion much the same that the Dallas Mavericks have fallen from the league’s elite. Thanks to Dumars’ foresight, that slow descent appears to have been avoided.

As much as the Pistons have struggled this season, several teams should be envious of the team’s ability to clean house this summer. Detroit has young talent and the financial flexibility to put together a completely new core as early as this summer. While teams like the Suns, Knicks, and Kings are forced to wait for bad contracts to expire before they rebuild, the Iverson trade has put the Pistons in a position to re-toll right away.

Dumars will accept nothing less than a team that can compete for a Championship. In order for a capable roster to materialize, Dumars made a trade that hurt the Piston roster in the short term. That has been a tough pill to swallow this year, but if the Pistons are back amongst the league’s elite by 2011 instead of 2014, the trade will be worth every embarrassing loss this team suffers over the next couple seasons.

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Transitioning Away From Greatness

The Pistons are a team in transition. At least that is what people are saying. Members of the media and people in the Pistons’ organization have spent the six weeks since the Iverson trade preaching about “adjustment periods” and “a team trying to find itself.” “We are trying to adjust,” Antonio McDyess told The Detroit News. "In the midst of [the coaching change], we end up making the trade for Allen [Iverson], so that's been another transition," Michael Curry told The Augusta Chronicle. "It's going to take time,” RIP Hamilton told The Detroit Free Press. "We're in transition right now," Joe Dumars told CBS. Allen Iverson also followed the company line, telling The Detroit News that “I know we're going [to be] in a better situation at the end of the season than we are now."

In recent years, several teams have made franchise-altering transactions and seen no ill effects of the alleged transition. The 2004 Pistons went 20-5 after Rasheed Wallace officially joined the team. They went on to win a championship. The Suns went 18-11 after remodeling their franchise with Shaquille O’Neal last season, even though that trade may have made them worse. The Lakers also made a big move in 2008, and won 14 of their first 16 games with Pau Gasol. The 2005 76ers were below .500 before adding Chris Webber, but went 17-11 after he joined the team. The Pistons’ counterpart in the Iverson deal – Denver – is 16-4 while dealing with their end of the change.

The chatter about “transitions” and “adjustments” fills newspapers, but it is not necessarily worthwhile. There are benefits associated with chemistry and familiarity, but those benefits are not nearly as drastic as the Pistons would make one believe. Basketball games are won and lost based on three very tangible components: offense, defense, and rebounding. When a team makes a move that improves it combined performance in those three areas, the “transition” and “adjustment period” are suddenly much less burdensome.

What matters for the Pistons are those three tangible aspects of basketball. Is Iverson an upgrade for the Pistons in terms of offense, defense, and/or rebounding? Rebounding is a non issue, as both players are guards who have posted almost identical rebounding rates over their careers. Defense is another issue. The drop-off from Billups to Iverson is monumental. Billups is one of the better defensive point guards in the league while Iverson is one of the worst. Iverson lacks the size and focus to be an adequate defender and the results are obvious on the court. The Pistons have fallen from fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency last season to 20th this season even though every prominent member of the rotation other than Billups is back.

Offensively, Billups has a 22.2 PER compared to Iverson’s 16.55. While PER does not tell the whole story, comparing team performance might help. The Pistons had the number one offense in the league after the two games that Billups played for Detroit, but the team has fallen to 13th with Iverson. They were in the top-six each of the past three seasons.

People have the perception that Allen Iverson is a star. While in his prime, Iverson was a legitimate superstar, at this point in his career he is merely a good role player. The current incarnation of Allen Iverson is eerily similar to a backup guard on his old team – the Philadelphia 76ers. In 2008, Lou Williams had a strong season as the sixth man for the Sixers. Despite his small stature – he is generously listed at 175 pounds – he posted impressive numbers as a scoring guard. On a per 40 minute basis, he averaged 19.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 2.7 turnovers, and shot 42.4% from the field. His PER was 16.8. This season, on the same per 40 minute basis, Iverson is averaging 18.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 3.1 turnovers, and shooting 41.5% from the field for a 16.55 PER. Both players are shooting guards in a point guard’s body, both are weak defensively despite a high rate of steals, and both are best-suited for a bench role. While Iverson has a reputation as a player vastly superior to Williams, the evidence suggests that the difference between the players is not nearly as pronounced.

The Pistons took a step back by trading their best player for a player formerly capable of being a team’s best player. They are no longer an elite team. Instead, they are merely a good one. While others talk about the Pistons adjusting to Iverson, maybe Iverson needs to adjust to the fact that he is no longer a star.

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One Month Later: A Look Back on the Iverson Trade (Part II)

If Joe Dumars did trade Billups for Iverson in order to facilitate a championship run this season, he appears to have committed his greatest blunder since drafting Darko Milicic. At this stage of their careers, Chauncey Billups is simply a better basketball player than Allen Iverson.

Comparing the two on defense is almost comical. Billups is a good, steady defender while Iverson is one of the worst defensive players in the NBA. Stats cannot tell the whole story on defense, but they do provide some insight. So far this season, the Pistons allow an additional 5.7 points per 100 possessions with Iverson on the court compared to when he is off the court. The Nuggets allow 1.4 points fewer points per 100 possessions with Billups on the floor. Opposing point guards have posted an 18.9 PER against Iverson this season, while Billups has held point guards to a 13.4 PER. Iverson has been even worse in his limited time trying to guard shooting guards.

Subjectively, Iverson’s defense has been every bit as bad as those stats suggest. While on the ball, Iverson lacks the strength to fight through picks. Off the ball, he is focused on jumping into passing lanes which has produced occasional steals and frequent open looks for the man he is supposed to be guarding. In his first three weeks as a Piston, Iverson was lit up by Devin Harris (38pts), Beno Udrih (18), CJ Watson (17), Mo Wiliams (25), Rajon Rondo(18), Randy Foye (23, 14ast) and Ramon Sessions (21). Even in the Pistons past two games, against Portland and San Antonio, the team clearly played its best defense with Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo matching up against opposing guards.

While no one expected Iverson to be an upgrade on the defensive end, the hope was that he could provide a boost on offense. The evidence suggests otherwise. On a points per possession basis, the Pistons were sixth in the NBA offensively in each of the previous two seasons. This season, when Iverson has not been on the court, the Pistons have scored 113.7 points per 100 possessions, a total higher than any team in the NBA so far. With Iverson on the court, that number drops to 104.3, which would be near the league average. Billups’ team has been an astounding 16.9 points per possession better offensively when he is in the game.

Allen Iverson’s biggest problem offensively is turnovers. Iverson has committed 3.1 turnovers per game as a Piston, nearly double Billups’ 1.6 mark in Denver. Iverson is also a much less efficient scorer than Billups. Iverson has a 52.2% true shooting percentage on the season, which pales in comparison to Billups’ 59.1%. Detroit’s top scorer in recent years – RIP Hamilton – has also been adversely affected by the arrival of Iverson. RIP averaged 20 points per game in the four games before the team acquired Iverson, but has averaged less than 15 points per contest alongside the future hall of famer.

Part of the reason the Pistons have struggled so much with Iverson can be attributed to an adjustment period. With that said, as Isaac Newton explained: “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” If the Pistons are struggling due to an adjustment period, we should see the same thing with Billups in Denver. There are problems with Iverson that patience and acclimation will not fix.

It’s far too early to call the deal a bust for the Pistons. The team does have a chance, albeit not a great one, to land either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire in 2010 if it is able to preserve its cap space. Also, Joe Dumars is concerned with the product the Pistons have on the court in the playoffs, so judging players based on the regular season is somewhat unfair. I just fear that with Iverson taking over for Billups, there will be fewer playoff games than usual for Dumars to judge.

(Stats courtesy of 82games.com and ESPN.com)

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One Month Later: A Look Back on the Iverson Trade (Part I)

Joe Dumars must have a plan. Dumars always has a plan. This time, I’m just struggling to see it.

One month ago, Dumars traded the face of the franchise – Chauncey Billups – to the Denver Nuggets for Allen Iverson. Antonio McDyess and Cheikh Samb were also sent to Denver in the deal, but McDyess is set to return to Detroit and Samb is, at best, a project capable of developing into a poor man’s Mikki Moore. As a result, the deal was essentially just a swap of Billups for Iverson.

When news of the deal first broke, I was shocked. One month later, I’m as confused as ever. There are three possible reasons Dumars could have made the deal.

One possibility is that Dumars was simply trying to ratchet up ticket sales by injecting excitement into a stale product being offered in a dreary economy. I think it is safe to quickly dispel that possibility. Dumars knows the only way to consistently sell tickets is to produce a winner. The trade did lead to a temporary spike in ticket sales, but if the team is made worse either in the short or long run, those gains will quickly be negated.

Another possibility is that Dumars was hoping to improve the team’s future outlook by creating financial flexibility. This theory suggests that Dumars did not believe that the opening day roster could win a championship, thus he opted to re-build around his younger players. Suffice it to say that I’m not a huge fan of trading Chauncey in a salary dump. The Pistons were good enough to win 55-60 games this year and were among the top five teams in the league with Billups on the roster. Making a move simply to dump Billups’ reasonable contract does not make sense unless there is a player acquisition on the horizon.

If this were the case however, then the only way for the Pistons to improve would be to allow Iverson and Rasheed Wallace to walk. The Pistons would then have the cap space to add a player who helps the team more than Billups. While soon-to-be free agents LeBron, Amare, Wade, and Bosh are all fun names to toss around, is there really any chance that one of those four comes to Detroit? I don’t buy it. Not with the city’s lack of glamour and poor climate.

If the Pistons are looking toward the future, they need a big man to replace Rasheed – unless of course they can get their hands on LeBron, in which case they can worry about positions later. They could try to bring Mehmet Okur back, but I’m not sure how likely that is. He will be 30 when he signs his next contract and has a nice situation in Utah. Shawn Marion and Lamar Odom will both be free agents and either could join Prince as a forward in a small ball frontcourt, but that would still leave the Pistons with a hole in the middle. Other options include Boozer (don’t get your hopes up) and David Lee (is he really an improvement on Maxiell and/or Amir Johnson?). If the Pistons can get their hands on a superstar or a big man who they can pair with Amir, I take back everything in this column and concede that Dumars is a genius two steps ahead of the game. Otherwise, the “look toward the future” rationalization of the trade appears flawed.

The third, and most likely, reason that Dumars pulled the trigger is that he felt the Pistons are better positioned to contend for a championship with Iverson than with Billups. Check back for Part II, in which I will explore the logic behind such a suggestion.

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