One Step Back, How Many Forward?

It would be easy to use the Pistons’ play in the opening games of the playoffs as an indictment of the trade for Allen Iverson. Based on the way Chauncey Billups dominated his first playoff game this season, it seems crazy that the Joe Dumars traded him for a player who was mostly trouble for the Pistons. However, when the big picture is taken into account, the start to the playoffs has justified the trade more substantially than anything that happened during the regular season.

The Pistons have been utterly dominated by Cleveland. Save for the fourth quarter of game two – a quarter in which Cleveland relaxed with a 27-point lead – the Cavaliers have outscored the Pistons in every quarter. In game one, Cleveland did whatever it wanted offensively. The following game, the Cavaliers shut down the Piston offense; Detroit did not reach 19 points in any of the first three quarters.

What the Cavalier domination has proven is that Detroit is nowhere close to fielding a contender. While Chauncey Billups easily would have been the best player on the team, the Pistons had no chance to contend this season, with or without Mr. Big Shot.

Had the Iverson trade not happened, Billups likely would have led Detroit to a top-four seed and a second round exit. Dumars saw the writing on the wall and elected to jumpstart the rebuilding process by creating financial flexibility. The Pistons could have slowly faded into oblivion much the same that the Dallas Mavericks have fallen from the league’s elite. Thanks to Dumars’ foresight, that slow descent appears to have been avoided.

As much as the Pistons have struggled this season, several teams should be envious of the team’s ability to clean house this summer. Detroit has young talent and the financial flexibility to put together a completely new core as early as this summer. While teams like the Suns, Knicks, and Kings are forced to wait for bad contracts to expire before they rebuild, the Iverson trade has put the Pistons in a position to re-toll right away.

Dumars will accept nothing less than a team that can compete for a Championship. In order for a capable roster to materialize, Dumars made a trade that hurt the Piston roster in the short term. That has been a tough pill to swallow this year, but if the Pistons are back amongst the league’s elite by 2011 instead of 2014, the trade will be worth every embarrassing loss this team suffers over the next couple seasons.

Read more...

How's That Back Injury?

Just in case there was any remaining doubt about the real reason Allen Iverson is no longer playing for the Pistons:

Pistons president Joe Dumars reiterated Wednesday via e-mail that Iverson's leave from the team -- granted on April 3 after Dumars and Iverson met to address the 33-year-old's increasing frustration with a reserve role -- will remain in effect for the duration of Detroit's stay in the playoffs.
–ESPN.com’s Marc Stein

The back injury was a convenient excuse, but the facts got in the way of anyone believing that. Piston doctors found no structural damage in Iverson’s back, Iverson had played through pain his entire career, he returned from the alleged injury to play three games just as effectively (or ineffectively) as he had earlier in the season, and he repeatedly complained about his role. When he was shut down for the season, his back injury was reported as the primary culprit. It never made sense. It is unclear if the decision for Iverson and the Pistons to part ways had to do with Iverson’s refusal to accept a bench role, Dumars’ refusal to accept a player who was doing more harm than good while in the game, or a combination of the two. However, it is more clear than ever that Iverson's professed back injury had little to do with the separation of player and team.

Read more...

A Reason to Hope

Last night’s devastating loss to Chicago has relegated the Pistons to a playoff series with LeBron James. It also clinched Detroit’s first below-.500 season since 2001. As mediocre as the Pistons’ final record may be, the current incarnation of the Piston roster has actually been performed very well. As David Berri explained, Allen Iverson is an even worse basketball player than people realize.

• Iverson left Philadelphia and the Sixers got better.
• Iverson was expected to transform the Denver Nuggets into a title contender. Denver, though, never got out of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.
• Iverson left the Nuggets and the team got better.
• Iverson has arrived in Detroit, and the team got worse.
  –David Berri, Wages of Wins

This season, Iverson played in 57 games (three of which were with Denver). His team was 25-32 in those games. Denver has excelled without Iverson. Before too much of that success is attributed to the arrival of Chauncey Billups, consider how well the Pistons have played when Rasheed Wallace has played, but Iverson has not.

This season, in the 17 games when Rasheed Wallace has played while Iverson has not, the Pistons are 13-4. In a sample size large enough to warrant one’s attention, the Pistons have won more than three fourths of their games. The chart below lists the results of every game the Pistons have played with their starting center and without their alleged superstar. (Road games are in italics, losses are in red.)



In those 17 games, the Pistons have a scoring margin of +6.1 points per game. Extrapolated over the course of an 82-game season, a team with that scoring margin would be expected to win roughly 58 games. To a certain extent, the Pistons benefitted from a less than intimidating schedule, however they did earn road wins against Boston and Orlando, as well as home wins over Denver and Orlando. Of the four losses, three came against playoff teams and none were by more than five points.

This probably does not mean much for the playoffs because LeBron James is ridiculously awesome. It also can only shed so much light on the Pistons’ future considering that Wallace’s days in Detroit are probably coming to end in the near future. What it does say is the team the Pistons bring into the playoffs is probably the fourth-best in the East.

In a season where so much has gone wrong for the Pistons, the team is not that far from returning to contention. Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, and Amir Johnson should each continue to improve. Will Bynum and Kwame Brown should be better next season when there is more certainty regarding their roles. RIP Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince should remain effect for several more seasons, even though the decline phase of their careers has begun in subtle ways.

The only concerning components of the Piston rotation are Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, both of whom could potentially depart this summer. If Amir Johnson is given the opportunity, he is capable of taking up the slack for Dice. The drop-off in jump-shooting and veteran savvy would be compensated for with Johnson’s superior athleticism and defense.

If the Pistons can replace Rasheed Wallace, the team may find itself hosting a first round playoff series as soon as next season. The task may be easier than it sounds given the state of the economy. Players like Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap will struggle to find reasonable offers, while several team owners will be looking to trade away valuable players in exchange for financial relief.

The Pistons lost more than half of their games and are likely headed toward a very brief postseason appearance. Regardless, the Pistons sans Iverson are better than people realize. A return to prominence may not be as far off as common wisdom would suggest.

Read more...

Fastbreak Buckets 4.12.2009

This edition of Fastbreak Buckets is all about Allen Iverson's separation from the Pistons.

I’ve had mixed feelings about posting much more than I already have about Allen Iverson, mainly because most everything that can be said, has been said. Nevertheless, one week after Iverson was sent home, I’m going to highlight some of the opinions from around the internet, and offer up a few points of my own.

• The piece on Iverson that has garnered the most attention has been Jason Whitlock’s brutal attack on Iverson’s career.
  
  

  Winning has never really mattered to Allen Iverson.
  …
  Iverson is a one-man, no-country Army, more than likely the victim of a dysfunctional upbringing that left him incapable of embracing the concepts essential to teamwork, winning and sacrifice for the benefit of others.
  

  I have been as harsh on Iverson as anyone (Wages of Wins has given me a run for my money), but I take exception with a few of Whitlock’s suggestions, namely that Iverson never cared about winning. Iverson doesn't play selfishly (dribble and shoot too much) because of his upbringing or his race, as Whitlock suggests. Iverson plays that way because he believes it is the best way to help a team win. He is wrong.
  
  The same unbridled confidence that allowed a 5’11 man to succeed in a league that employs more people above seven-feet than below six-feet is also Iverson’s biggest fault. Iverson believes that the best way to lead a team to victory is for him to dominate the offense and fill up the score sheet. At one point, his one-man offense was able to match that of most NBA teams. At age 33, he has reached the point where any offense he leads will be a terrible one. The gap between his skills and his perception of his skills has only become more pronounced as his game has deteriorated, but his confidence has not.
  
• Over at Piston Powered, Dan Feldman explains that Iverson’s back injury had little to do with the early ending to his season.
  
  

  Iverson isn’t playing again for the Pistons because he doesn’t want to play again for the Pistons. Sure, his back may be hurting. But he just complained about not getting enough minutes. If he wanted to fight through it, he could.

  While it is hard to imagine the back injury was a deciding factor, I think Iverson’s desire to leave the team was matched only by Joe Dumars’ desire to get rid of him after it became clear he was not capable of helping the team in a bench role.
  
• For those who wonder why a former MVP was incapable of serving as a useful role player, Fanhouse’s Matt Steinmetz breaks it down.
  
  

  Even if Iverson is ready, willing and able to lower himself a rung on a team's scoring ladder, that doesn't mean he'll do it well or that he's best suited to do it.As a general rule, role players are better at being role players than stars are at being role players.

  While that does not apply to all players – David Robinson, Grant Hill, Reggie Miller, and Ray Allen, among others, have been effective as complimentary players after being go-to guys earlier in their careers – Iverson is clearly not suited to be anything other than a team’s primary scoring option. When Iverson was effective earlier in his career, his remarkable scoring ability overcame his several weaknesses, notably poor defense, poor decision-making, and a ball-hogging style of play that takes a team out of its offense. As he has aged, that scoring ability has deteriorated, but the weaknesses remain. What’s left is a player whose cannot help an NBA team unless he drastically changes his style of play. Iverson's only skill is his ability to score. The problem is that he scores in such a horribly inefficient manner that he is a hindrance to team success on both ends of the floor.
  
• The mainstream media has plenty of coverage of Iverson’s final days with the Pistons. Larry Brown says that plenty of teams will want Iverson. Either several teams have misguided GMs, Brown is wrong, or Brown is telling a white lie as not to offend “The Answer.” “He's still a starter in this league; he's going to have a lot of success," Michael Curry told The Detroit News. Again, I cannot imagine that Curry truly believes what he is saying. Marc Stein says he has talked to several league executives who do not believe there will be much of a market for Iverson. The market for Iverson will be limited, but it only takes one bad GM for a player to a contract disproportionate to his ability to contribute. Chris McCosky rails against the way Iverson handled the move to the bench. In light of what has transpired, it is hard to disagree.
  
• Lastly, for comedy’s sake, here is Rick Kamla (via Pistons Nation) making us question whether paying attention to the NBA is part of the job description for hosting a show that analyzes the NBA. “He’s a Hall of Fame player who’s still in the prime of his career,” Kamla said. If Iverson’s play this year is indicative of the prime of a Hall of Fame career, I can think of a few hundred players who deserve a plaque in Springfield. In 2009, Will Bynum is a better basketball player than Allen Iverson. The fact that Kamla has not watched enough Piston basketball to know this led him to go on national television and reveal his ignorance while shouting.

One last thing I'd like to mention. Brian Packey has launched Motown String Music as the Piston blogosphere's representative on SB Nation. MSM is off to a great start and has some exciting ideas that should strengthen the Piston blogging community. Be sure to check the site out.

Read more...

Iverson Sent Home.

Breaking News. Allen Iverson has played his last game as a Piston.

The Pistons announced Friday they were shutting the all-star and former NBA scoring champion down for the rest of the season, including the playoffs. Pistons president Joe Dumars met with Iverson and his agent, Leon Rose, over the last two days, and the feeling was that it was no longer in Iverson's nor the Pistons' best interest for him to continue trying to play.
--Chris McCosky, Detroit News

Read more...

Dodging a McBullet

At the 24:20 mark this Bill Simmons podcast, where Simmons interviewed Rockets GM Daryl Morey, Simmons asked Morey if he came close to trading Tracy McGrady last summer. During Morey’s response, he named only one team as a potential suitor for T-Mac. “Detroit did have interest [in trading for McGrady.] It just never worked out for both sides,” Morey said. The fact that the Rockets were unable to make a deal work with Detroit is one of the luckiest moments in Piston franchise history. While Iverson has been a disaster in Detroit, acquiring McGrady would have been significantly worse for the Pistons.

Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson have quite a bit in common. Both are former superstars who have failed to adjust to diminishing athleticism. When they play, Iverson and McGrady are both volume shooters who rely far too heavily on contested jump shots. This season, both players have an effective field goal percentage below 44 percent, well below the league average. Neither plays excels on defense or does much to help his team outside of scoring, so if they are shooting that ineffectively, they are marginal players at best.

The parallels do not end there. Both players have missed significant time this season with “injuries.” In both cases, there has been rampant speculation that the amount of time missed and the severity of the injuries do not align. Neither team should be too upset if the players are exaggerating their injuries. The Pistons have been much better without Iverson this year and the same can be said of the Rockets without McGrady.

Despite rapidly declining production, Iverson and McGrady are two of the six highest paid players in the NBA. Contracts also happen to be the point of differentiation between the two players who peaked more than half a decade ago. Allen Iverson’s contract expires this season. His departure will afford the Pistons unrivaled financial flexibility during an offseason in which few teams will be looking to spend money. McGrady, on the other hand, is owed over 23 million dollars next season. Had the Pistons acquired McGrady, their impending cap space would have evaporated.

It is hard to know what trade possibilities were discussed, but if the Rockets passed on an opportunity to deal McGrady for Chauncey Billups, Daryl Morey may have cost his team an NBA Championship. A starting lineup of Billups, Battier, Artest, Scola, and Yao would have rivaled the Lakers as the best in the West. Instead, Houston is just another second-tier team out West.

While the Rockets missed a potential home run, the Pistons avoided hitting into a double play. A trade for McGrady would have made the Pistons worse in the short term and delayed their financial flexibility, when compared to a deal for Iverson. The trade for Allen Iverson has not worked out well for the Pistons. Just know that it could have turned out much worse.

Read more...

Rounding Out the Rotation

The future of the Piston’s season hinges on two pieces falling into place much better than they have thus far. If the Pistons are going to make noise in the playoffs, they need Allen Iverson playing well and Michael Curry making smart decisions about his rotation. To date, Iverson has had a negative impact on the team – through his play, not his behavior – while Curry has often appeared lost. For Detroit to win a series or two, the team needs its bench to contribute. The only scenario in which that is possible involves a productive Allen Iverson and a logical rotation.

Without Iverson, the Piston’s perimeter backups have been inconsistent, to put it mildly. Arron Afflalo played well in the first half of the season, but has been mired in a horrible slump the last eight weeks. His PER for the season has fallen to 8.31. Despite his strong defense, he does not deserve to play based on that lack of production. Afflalo should get one more opportunity, given that his game seems to compliment Iverson’s nicely in the sense that Afflalo plays strong defense and does not need the ball on offense. However, Afflalo will only warrant consistent minutes if he can knock down open shots.

The man who has replaced Afflalo in the rotation is Walter Herrmann. Herrmann has made several spectacular plays this season. Those plays overshadow the many easy ones he has botched. Herrmann’s value to the team is supposed to lie in his shooting ability. This season, he has converted just 36.4 percent of his field goals attempts. Many of his makes have been threes, but the flip side of that perimeter shooting has been an inability to get to the free throw line. The result is that Herrmann has the worst true shooting percentage among the 12 Pistons who regularly dress.

Defensively, the exception has once again overshadowed the rule with Herrmann. Last spring, he played excellent defense on Dirk Nowitzki during a comeback attempt by the Pistons. Aside from that one game, he has typically been overmatched on the defensive end of the court. Herrmann often plays like his shoes are on fire. He is constantly jumping around and shuffling his feet. With so much movement, he often finds himself out of position and is easily beaten by his man. For Joe Dumars, the search for Tayshaun Prince’s backup should continue. Thus far, Ronald Dupree, Carlos Delfino, Maurice Evans, Jarvis Hayes, and now Herrmann have failed to fill the void left by trading Corliss Williamson.

The lone bright spot, as far as perimeter backups are concerned, has been Will Bynum. On a per-minute basis, Bynum leads the Pistons in assists and steals and is second to Allen Iverson in free throw attempts. However, with the good comes the bad for Bynum. He leads the Pistons in turnovers per minute, has fallen behind Allen Iverson into last on the Pistons in effective field goal percentage, and has a poor outside shot.

Bynum is effective at driving into the paint and drawing multiple defenders. While that skill has come in handy lately, that happens to be identical to Allen Iverson’s strength on the court. Both Bynum and Iverson are most effective with the ball in their hands. When one also considers that neither player is six-feet tall, it is hard to imagine them playing together. Rodney Stuckey and RIP Hamilton have clearly established themselves as the Pistons best backcourt, so they should be on the floor together as much as possible. Given that, it is hard to imagine Michael Curry finding minutes for both Bynum and Iverson. Curry hinted that he may want to try and play Bynum and Iverson together. Hopefully he reconsiders.

As much as Iverson can help the bench, he has the potential to do just as much damage to the starting unit. The Pistons need their best five players starting and finishing each half. If that means Iverson only plays 15 minutes per game, so be it. The Piston offense is most effective when the starters play together. Playing Iverson alongside three or four other starters would be counter-productive. The Pistons could rest three or more starters at once while Iverson takes over the offense. As soon as all five starters have had enough of a breather to return for the remainder of the half, Curry needs to send Iverson to the bench.

Without Iverson, the Piston bench has been ineffective. With him, the bench has the potential to be explosive. Curry needs to strike a balance between letting Iverson carry the bench unit without letting him take away from the starters’ effectiveness. The Piston’s season depends on it.

Read more...

Fastbreak Buckets 3.02.2009

This edition of Fastbreak Buckets is an all-Allen Iverson version.

-During yesterday’s win in Boston, the Pistons made a fundamental change in their defense – they switched on most picks. While Stuckey, Hamilton, and Prince are far from interchangeable defensively, there was little hesitation for any of the three to switch defensive assignments after a screen. They were able to do this because all three players have the size to guard point guards and wings, while also possessing the quickness to stay in front of any of the Celtics.

When Allen Iverson is on the court, the Pistons lose this ability. Iverson is typically too small to guard any player but opposing point guards. When a screen is set on Iverson, the screener’s defender has to step out on the opposing guard and then retreat to his own man. This potentially problematic task is necessary to ensure that Iverson does not have to switch onto a bigger player. That responsibility has placed a difficult burden on many of the Pistons and is a primary reason their defense has suffered this season. Iverson’s lack of size is out his control, but that is the biggest reason he is such a liability on defense.

-As much as Iverson has hurt the Pistons defensively, he has done the most damage on offense. Game recaps from the two weekend games were filled with players and coaches talking about how much better the Pistons move the ball without Iverson. Iverson tends to attack defenses off the dribble and often attempts contested mid-range jumpers. The constant dribbling takes the Pistons out of their offense and hinders the ability of players like Rodney Stuckey and Tayshaun Prince to be effective. The contested jumpers Iverson so frequently takes are the least efficient shot in basketball. Iverson does not make nearly of them to justify the regularity with which he takes such shots. If Iverson can accept a role in which he plays limited minutes as a change-of-pace offensive force playing alongside backups who struggle to score, he can help the Pistons. Otherwise, the Pistons should cut their losses and give him the Marbury treatment.

-In a related note, while the focus has been on the starting lineup lately, there is another question that needs to be answered. Which Pistons will finish close games? For the same reasons that Iverson should not start games, he should not finish them. Hopefully, Curry was paying attention this weekend and noticed that the Pistons played two of their best fourth quarters all season without Iverson.

Read more...

Iverson Benched!

Breaking News! The Detroit News is reporting that Allen Iverson has been benched in favor of RIP Hamilton. This is great news and should enhance the Pistons' chances of qualifying for the playoffs. As Chris McCosky stated earlier in the day, if Iverson is unahppy with the move, the Pistons would probably be better off to buy out his contract than to start him over the more efficient Hamilton. Michael Curry has done a very poor job overall this season, but no one can blame him for being too inflexible with his rotations – in fact, he probably has made too many changes. With that said, he got this move right. Only time will tell if the move will actually pay off, but it cannot possibly lead to worse results than what the team has produced of late.

Read more...

The Consensus: Bench Iverson

The Allen Iverson bashing is picking up momentum. Putting Iverson on the bench would not solve all of this team’s problems, but it would definitely solve quite a few. In an effort to support the arguments made in The Detroit News, The Detroit Free Press, and on Fanhouse, here is a recap of the reasons the Pistons should reduce Iverson to a reserve role.

• Iverson is regarded as a terrible defender; however he also appears to be incapable of being part of an efficient offense.
• Part of the reason Iverson brings down an offense is his horrendous shot selection.
• Iverson allegedly kills team spirits.
• As crazy as this sounds, Iverson is no longer good enough to start for an above average NBA team. Not a single team with an above .500 record would benefit from starting Iverson over one of its current starters.
• Iverson dominates the ball while in the game. This has detrimental effects when he plays with the starters, but would be OK alongside the Piston reserves, many of whom struggle to create open looks.
• RIP Hamilton is the shooting guard of the future. It makes sense to allow him to play alongside Stuckey and Prince – the other core players here for the long haul – as often as possible. Since Stuckey and Prince both start, the logical move is to start Hamilton.
• Stuckey looks lost playing with Iverson. His development should be the top priority for the Pistons the remainder of this season. Allowing him to play in a more traditional offense –one that does not revolve around Iverson – would be ideal.

The Pistons won roughly 70 percent of their games between the start of the 2001-2002 season and the trade for Iverson. Since Iverson first suited-up in Piston blue, the team has won 45 percent of its games. Obviously there are a ton of other factors at work and the problems extend far beyond Iverson, but he clearly has not been of much help. Whatever the Pistons are doing now is not working. Limiting Iverson’s role is an option Michael Curry must explore. If this season can be salvaged, he has no other choice.

Read more...

21 Reasons to Hope

The Pistons are an uninspiring 21-21 since the arrival of Allen Iverson. With pessimism spreading through Piston Nation, it’s time to run through the 21 reasons for Piston fans to be optimistic.

1. Rodney Stuckey. Stuckey is already a very good player, but he is on the fast track to stardom. The second year guard plays like a poor man’s cross between Dwyane Wade and Chauncey Billups. At the rate he’s progressing, “poor man’s” might be taken out of the analogy soon.

2. Draft Pick. The Pistons are playing just poorly enough that they might end up with a decent draft pick. When Dumars has drafted between picks 15 and 27, he has landed Tayshaun Prince, Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, and Arron Afflalo. The only pick in that range he would like to have back was the Carlos Delfino pick of 2003. This season, the Pistons will likely end up drafting in the late teens.

3. Reduced Wear and Tear. The Piston veterans have experienced grueling playoff runs each of the past seven seasons. An extended summer vacation may help revitalize them for future seasons.

4. April Will Matter. For the first since 2003, the Pistons might actually play April games that impact their playoff position. Only once since 2003 has an Eastern conference team finished fewer than five games away from the Pistons in the standings. The exception was 2007, when the Pistons finished three games ahead of the Cavaliers.

5. Joe Dumars. In Joe We (Should) Trust. He has been phenomenal as the general manager in Detroit. Even when he has made a mistake, he has been quick to compensate with a brilliant maneuver. If anyone can fix this mess, it is Dumars.

6. Iverson’s Days are Numbered. All-Star Allen Iverson has said he plans to test the free agent market this summer. That seems like a good idea, since the Pistons surely will not want to retain him. Aside from the possibility of addition by subtraction, this seems like a perfect opportunity for Bill Simmons’ “Ewing Theory” to strike.

7. Cap Space. When Iverson leaves, cap space will arrive. The last three times Dumars made serious plays in free agency, he landed Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess, and Nazr Mohammad. Two for three is a light years better than most organizations perform with free agent money.

8. Experimenting. Michael Curry has changed starting lineups and rotations more times than I’d care to remember. While that may have had disastrous effects on the team’s performance thus far, logic suggests that if he continues to test new ideas, eventually something should work. Maybe he should try benching Iverson.

9. Jason Maxiell. The “Baby Eater” is under contract through 2013. That gives him plenty of time to consume babies and do things like this.

10. No Losing in the Conference Finals. This is far from a given, but it looks like the Pistons streak of ending their season with a game-six loss in the conference finals will end at three. The preseason goal was to end the streak via improvement; however the Pistons appear to be taking a different approach.

11. Underdog Status. The Pistons of old relished the underdog mentality. They used perceived disrespect as a motivational tool. The Pistons have now regained underdog status. Step two is regaining underdog intensity.

12. Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons’ iron man has been one of the elite small forwards in the NBA for the last six seasons and has shown no signs of slowing down.

13. No More Flipping the Switch. For years – specifically the last two – there was talk the Pistons would flip a proverbial switch and play hard only when motivated. The current incarnation of the Piston is not good enough to earn such reports.

14. The Coaching Can Only Improve. As far as coaching goes, it is difficult to imagine the Pistons could possibly employ someone who performs worse than Curry has so far. Curry will have to improve or he will be fired, either of which would be progress.

15. Kwame’s Out. Michael Curry recently made it clear – through words and actions – that Kwame Brown will be spending the majority of games glued to the bench. Brown appears to finally be in a role that suits his talents: fifth big man on a team that typically plays four.

16. Longer Summer. The Pistons have kept their fans busy throughout May and often into June for the past six seasons. This summer, Piston fans should have much more time to enjoy the sun.

17. Arron Afflao. “Aflac” is a keeper who should play a much bigger role next season, when fellow shooting guard Allen Iverson departs. Afflalo’s defense and outside shooting would be valuable on any team.

18. No More Arrogance. The media has been annoyed with a perceived arrogance from the Pistons in recent seasons. One way to cure arrogance is to stop winning. In that sense, the Pistons appear to be fixing one of their character flaws.

19. No More Flip. At least before the season, less Flip Saunders seemed like a good thing.

20. Fun Gossip. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey has chosen to chronicle the Pistons’ struggles like a soap opera. Over the past two weeks, he has written articles – which may or may not be factual – about Dumars trying to trade Prince, dead team spirits, players lacking confidence, and a team that has little respect or trust in its coach. His sources are anonymous and his credibility is waning, but there is some entertainment value.

21. Amir Johnson. The 21st reason for Pistons fans to be optimistic is the continued development of one of basketball’s most talented 21-year olds. The young forward is already a game charger on the glass and with his defense. There are questions about his offense, but with time and opportunity, he might be better on that end than some anticipate.

Read more...

Out of Focus

A big part of the reason Michael Curry elected to bench RIP Hamilton instead of Allen Iverson was that he needed to pair Hamilton with Will Bynum off the bench. Bynum worked to learn Hamilton’s tendencies and was beginning to develop chemistry with the three-time All-Star. Also, Bynum and Iverson are too small to play together, so Curry could not afford to play both with the second unit.

Curry has recently taken Bynum out of the rotation – Bynum has played just one minute total during the past four games. Now that Bynum is essentially out of the mix, Curry needs to re-consider his starting lineup. I explained here and here why RIP should be starting over Iverson. Iverson demonstrated with pitiful defense (explained here), poor shot selection (explained here), and poor results (evidence here), that he should not be starting. Michael Rosenberg did an outstanding job of explaining this very issue in today's Detroit Free Press.

Iverson, on the other hands, told the Detroit Free Press he wants to be an even bigger part of the Pistons’ offensive attack.

"I would love to be a focal part on the offensive end," [Iverson] said. "That's where I've been all my career. And that's why I play the game. That's the type of competitor I am. In crucial situations, I want the ball in my hands. But like I've been saying all along: The calls they make, I trust my teammates and the coaching staff to be able to get us over the hump."

It’s a good thing Iverson isn’t coaching. He was the “focal part” of the offense for ten full seasons in Philadelphia. From 1997 until 2006, the 76ers were 21st, 21st, 23rd, 25th, 13th, 23rd, 11th, 26th, 24th and 15th, by season, in offensive efficiency*. In total, the Iverson-led 76ers were in the bottom third of the NBA in offensive efficiency seven times, but did not finish in the top third once**. The Pistons are currently 23rd in offensive efficiency. They had finished amongst the top-six teams in offensive efficiency each of the previous three seasons. The Pistons would be well-served to take Iverson’s advice and do the exact opposite.

*Offensive efficiency is a measure of points scored per possession.
**There were 29 teams during the first seven seasons (through 2003) and 30 during the final three.

Read more...

The Answer: Fewer Dumb Shots

82games.com has done some very cool stat tracking in recent years. One of the stat breakdowns within shooting stats is a breakdown of shooting by shot clock situation. This is useful for a variety of reasons.

First off, one can compare teams and learn about their tendencies. For example, the open court, Mike D’Antoni led Knicks take 37 percent of their shots during the first ten seconds of the shot clock. The Pistons, in contrast, take only 33 percent of their shots during the first ten seconds of the shot clock. Based on effective field goal percentage* (eFG%), the Knicks have been much more successful than the Pistons on those early shots. On the other hand, the Pistons have been more efficient with their half court offense. The results are evident in the stats, which show that the Pistons have a higher eFG% in the later part of the shot clock.

The other benefit of the stat breakdown is that it conveys information about individual players. A player like Tayshaun Prince may appear to be a poor shooter based on a sub-par eFG%, but when one digs a little deeper, a different story is told. Prince takes 28% of his shots during the last four seconds of the shot clock – an incredibly high amount – and converts those shots at a 43.2 eFG%. What this means is that Prince is often called upon to bail the Pistons out at the end of the shot clock and he does a very good job of doing just that. It also shows how Prince can be one of the best offensive players on the Pistons despite a middling effective field goal percentage.

On the other end of the spectrum is Allen Iverson. The shot clock usage shooting breakdowns for the Pistons and for Allen Iverson are below.




What this shows is that Iverson is taking a high percentage of his shots – 36 percent – early in the shot clock. However, Iverson has been horribly inefficient with those shots. Typically, players only take shots in the early part of the shot clock if they have a layup, dunk, or wide open look. As a result, most players have an early shot clock eFG% in the fifties, if not higher. Amir Johnson, for example, has made 69.4 percent of the shots he has taken in the first ten seconds of the shot clock. Excluding Iverson, the Pistons have roughly a 56 eFG% on shots early in the shot clock.

Iverson’s mark of 40.6% is simply unacceptable. He is clearly taking far too many difficult shots early in the shot clock. This is not a fluke based upon a small sample size either; Iverson has taken well over 200 shots early in the shot clock. He needed to make about 40 more of those in order to post an eFG% on par with the rest of his team.

In the first ten seconds of the shot clock, a player still has time to kick the ball out to a point guard and run a play. Through a play, the Pistons are almost certainly capable of creating a far better shot than one that yields only a 40.6 eFG%. The fact that Iverson has opted to take such a high quantity of low percentage shots implies selfish play.

The usually astute Kelly Dwyer noted on Monday that the Pistons are struggling this season:

And Detroit, whatever it is, they just don't have it. This team continues to lose, even when it plays well, even when the whole team is interested.
…
You can't blame this on Allen Iverson. Don't even start. Detroit's issues run far deeper than that.

He argues that all of the Pistons problems cannot be pinned on Iverson. Maybe so, but it surely does not help that the team’s highest paid player and supposed offensive whiz is killing the team with horrendous decision making and ineffective shooting.

*Effective Field Goal Percentage equals (FG+0.5*3P)/FGA. The statistic adjusts field goal percentage to account for the additional value of a made three pointer.
(Thanks to 82games.com and Basketball-Reference.com for stats, tables, and formulas)

Read more...

Fastbreak Buckets 1.27.09

Today’s edition of fastbreak buckets is a blockquote special.

-Interesting tidbit in the Monday’s Boston Globe. (H/T TrueHoop)

[Ray] Allen started wearing [a sleeve] when he was in a horrific slump during the Detroit series last spring. He wears the sleeve on just his left arm - sort of like Michael Jackson without the creepiness.
"Rip Hamilton grew his fingernails long and he was scratching me," explained Allen. "I needed the sleeve to shield me from those nails. And I've stayed with it."

Those are the type of tactics that earn a player “wily veteran” status from his fans and “dirty player” labels from his opponents. One thing that cannot be questioned is RIP’s willingness to do whatever it takes to win.

-Anonymous scouts are to sports what tabloids are to pop culture. They can both create unsubstantiated nonsense which appears as fact in print. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey, who usually does a much better job with his NBA coverage, had two quotes worth of anonymous rubbish in his Sunday column. (H/T Need4Sheed)

"[The Pistons] are playing with no emotion," says a long-distance viewer. Allen Iverson "has killed the team's spirit with his style of play."

I have noticed an inefficient offense, inconsistent defense, and poor coaching, but if a “long-distance viewer” can detect a dead spirit, maybe he knows something the rest of us do not.

So hooked on economics is Dumars, an agent testifies, he was prepared to deal treasured Tayshaun Prince for Stephen Jackson (or maybe it was Ron Artest) whose contract was set to terminate after next season.

It was one thing for the Pistons to trade Billups for cap space in an attempt to balance the roster; the Pistons had two quality point guards in Billups and Stuckey, but needed frontcourt help. Dumars elected to trade Billups for impending cap room which he will try to use to lure a big man, thus balancing the roster. Prince is a completely separate issue. If the Pistons were to trade Prince for cap room, they would have cap room and a major hole at small forward to fill. They would probably have to use that cap room to sign a small forward – probably a small forward very much like Prince. Dumars chimed in with his thoughts on the assertion.

"That's absolutely false! I'm not trading Prince, period," Dumars fumed.

-Piston players have made some disturbing comment about their coach recently.

Iverson, to The Detroit News, on the Pistons’ poor defense against Houston:

"Have you talked to MC yet?" Allen Iverson asked, referring to coach Michael Curry. "He should have the answers. He knows better than me why we're not getting it done."
…
"If it looked like we were playing a zone, and we weren't, that's not good," Iverson said.

More from Iverson in today's Detroit News.

"I would be lying if I said I wasn't frustrated," Iverson said. "I just feel like I can offer more to the team. I can do more to help us win games, and when that opportunity presents itself, I will be right here to take the challenge."

Tayshaun Prince hinted at displeasure with the coaching staff in this Detroit News article. He said the Pistons need to stop worrying about coaching schemes and simply play better. Reading between the lines, if they need to stop worrying about coaching schemes, that implies that players currently are worrying about coaching schemes.

"At some point you have to put all that aside and not worry about the X's and O's and just do what you have to do defensively as far as taking a challenge. I don't think we are doing that in the first quarters."
…
"It's tough because you would think at this point we would have found our way and we haven't," Prince said.

Rasheed Wallace was slightly less subtle than Prince when he spoke with The Detroit News.

"I guess you can say we were confused early," said Rasheed Wallace, who voiced his displeasure to Curry twice early in the game. "We figured it out in the second half but by then it was too late."

Wallace on his lack of fourth quarter touches against Houston after scoring ten points in the third quarter.

"It wasn't my call," Wallace said. "Just got to go with the flow, I guess."

Read more...

Who Should Close? (Non-Tigers Edition)

Now that the Pistons seem to have settled on a starting lineup, Michael Curry faces an even more important question: which five players will be on the court to finish close games? In the first three games since Curry moved Hamilton to the bench, the outcome of the game has dictated the finishing lineup for him. The games against Toronto and Dallas were not close in the fourth quarter and the closing lineup was irrelevant. In the game against Houston, the Pistons trailed by 15 in the fourth quarter, so when the score tightened up, Curry elected to stick with the players who led the comeback.

Should the Pistons play a close game sometime in the near future, Curry will face an interesting dilemma. Two players – Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess – appear to be safe. They are the team’s best interior players and Curry values their defense, rebounding, and outside shooting.

The remaining three positions are less clear. Tayshaun Prince is the team’s best perimeter defender and probably its best overall player. He almost definitely should be in the game down the stretch.

RIP Hamilton has been the focus of the Pistons’ offense down the stretch for the past several years. Among returning Pistons, he was by far the most effective clutch* performer last season. Curry also promised Hamilton roughly 30 minutes per game. Hamilton has been entering games roughly nine minutes into each half, so he has to be on the floor the entire second and fourth quarters in order to reach the aforementioned 30-minute mark.

Allen Iverson has been the go-to guy down the stretch for the Pistons most of this year. He was acquired because of his ability to break down a defense – precisely the type of skill that is most useful at the end of close games, when defenses tighten up.

Rodney Stuckey is the best point guard on the team. He also appears to be the centerpiece Joe Dumars would like to build the team around. Since the Pistons seem to be making moves with an eye toward the future, the team needs to ensure that its youngest star gains experience in clutch situations.

Prince, Hamilton, Iverson, and Stuckey all have very compelling cases to be on the court when the game is on the line. There is no easy answer for Curry. As far as egos are concerned, the safest option – benching Stuckey – may very well be the worst option. Part of the reason the Pistons traded Chauncey Billups was that the team wanted Stuckey to take the reins of the franchise and receive on the job training. It would be foolish of the Pistons to expand Stuckey’s role, only to make him watch the most important moments of a game from the bench.

The strategy that makes the most sense is for Curry to ride the hot hand between Iverson and Hamilton. Whichever shooting guard is having a better game should earn the opportunity to finish the game. If either Stuckey or Prince is way off his game, there are situations where the struggling player should sit, however those two players are able to impact a game in so many ways that it would be difficult to take either out of a close game.

Neither Iverson or Hamilton will like the fact that they will occasionally be seated during crunch time. Hopefully they will understand that if the Pistons are going to accomplish something they have not done often lately – win – they need a balanced lineup that only has room for one of them on the court.

*Clutch is defined by 82games.com as any point in the 4th quarter or overtime where there is less than five minutes left and neither team is ahead by more than five points

Read more...

Midseason Report Card (Part I)

At 24-17 the Pistons have reached the mid-point of their season. That means it is time for midseason grades. Grades are based upon how well players have performed relative to expectations thus far in the 2008-2009 season. Today I’ll take a look at the starters. Check back this weekend to see grades for the reserves.

Starters

Rodney Stuckey: After a promising rookie season, there was hope that Stuckey would emerge as an elite backup for the Pistons. He struggled to find his rhythym during the first few weeks of the season, but he finished November strong and has not looked back. Stuckey earned a promotion to the starting lineup in December and he has risen to the challenge. The second year guard leads the Pistons in PER and has greatly improved his jump shot and his defense since his rookie season. Stuckey appears to be on the fast track to stardom. Grade: A-

Allen Iverson: Iverson came over in the much-discussed trade for Chauncey Billups. While it was clear that Iverson could not match Billups’ ability to defend or run an offense, the hope was that Iverson would be a superior scorer. So far, that has not materialized. Iverson is playing more minutes per game and taking more shots per game than Billups, but is averaging fewer points per game thanks to a huge disparity in true shooting percentage (59.1% for Billups, 51.0% for Iverson). Iverson has hit some huge shots (vs. OKC, at LAC) but also has missed his share of potentially game-altering shots (at POR, vs. CHA). Overall, Iverson has been a disappointment, but there is a chance he will begin to play better with the new lineup that should give him more opportunities to score. Grade: D+

Tayshaun Prince: When Prince was forced to play out of position at power forward, he struggled mightily. Thankfully, he has been returned to small forward. In the games that Prince has played small forward so far this season, he has been awesome. With Billups gone, Prince has emerged as the best player on the Pistons this season. Had he spent the entire season at small forward, there is a good chance he would be an all-star. He still has an outside chance to make the team if the East squad catches the injury bug. Grade: A-

Amir Johnson: Johnson’s minutes have yo-yoed up and down all season. Likewise, his production has been wildly inconsistent. He began the season as a starter and played fairly well as the starting line’s garbage man. Johnson was then moved to the bench in favor of Kwame Brown and his minutes and production both fell off – save for a strong three-game stretch to end November. Johnson was squeezed out of the rotation for much of December, but when an injury to RIP Hamilton allowed Johnson to re-enter the starting unit, he responded with two weeks of great defense, strong rebounding, and far too much fouling. Eventually the foul problems began to affect his performance. He is currently mired in an ineffective rut in which he has more fouls than points in January. Johnson recently returned to the starting lineup so it should be interesting to track his continued progress. Grade: B-

Rasheed Wallace: Wallace has played lethargic basketball for years, but he taken that to a new level this season. To say that Wallace appears to be going through the motions offensively would be generous. Occasionally he decides to saunter into the post, but more often he sets a screen or two and then drifts behind the three point line for the remainder of the possession. Wallace is an effective long-range shooter and he plays sturdy defense, but with a little intensity he could do so much more. Grade: B-

Read more...

Do the Right Thing: Bench Iverson

Michael Curry is giving every indication that there is room for only one shooting guard in the starting lineup. When RIP Hamilton returns from injury, either he or Allen Iverson is likely headed to the bench. The two shooting guards have both made numerous all-star teams and neither seems too happy about the prospect of watching the first few minutes of action seated by the coaches.

The motivation for bringing one of the two off the bench is clear – defense – but there is another question that is not being asked. Even if Hamilton is taken out of the equation, does Allen Iverson really contribute to the starting lineup?

At this point in his career, Iverson has clear strengths and weaknesses on the court. Iverson is better than most at creating offense; he is 66th among 322 qualified players in “usage rate” – the percent of a team’s possessions that a player uses, based on shots, assists, and turnovers. He also excels at getting to the free throw line. The latter skill has been especially valuable for a Piston team that rarely gets to the stripe. While Iverson’s ability to create open shots and earn free throw attempts is important, it is difficult to determine another strong point of his game.

His weaknesses, however, are more prevalent. While Iverson takes a lot of shots – a team-leading 15.2 per game – he does not make nearly enough to justify his shot selection. Iverson has made 40.9% of his field goal attempts and has the worst adjusted field goal percentage among the 12 Pistons usually on the active roster.

Iverson averages 5.5 assists per game, but his 2.7 turnovers a night negate that production. Iverson is a great ball handler who rarely has the ball taken from him, but he forces passes and often leaves his feet to pass – two habits that lead to his high turnover rate. Iverson is unable to contribute as a point guard, despite his dribbling skills, due to poor decision making. He is incapable of being a team’s floor general and therefore is relegated to playing shooting guard.

Partially due to the fact that Iverson is a shooting guard in an undersized point guard’s body, he is a disaster defensively. Iverson is badly undersized against nearly all of his opponents and usually has to defend point guards while his own team’s point guard checks shooting guards. On plays where Iverson switches or rotates onto a bigger player down low, he is completely helpless. When Iverson is able to match up against a player his size, he gambles far too frequently and struggles to stay in front of his man. Opponents also have little trouble rising up and shooting right over the 5’11 Iverson.

Iverson is still capable of contributing to an NBA team. His ability to free himself for makeable shots can be valuable when he is on the floor with defense oriented teammates. Unfortunately for Iverson, the Pistons starting lineup includes Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace, three players capable of creating offense more efficiently than Iverson.

The Pistons bench, however, struggles to score at times. Arron Afflalo, Jason Maxiell, and Antonio McDyess are all capable shooters, but none of the three is proficient at creating open shots. Iverson would complement that group well.

At this stage of his career, Iverson’s game most resembles that of players like Louis Williams, Ben Gordon, Leandro Barbosa, and a younger Monta Ellis. All of those players are undersized shooting guards and poor defenders who have excelled as offensive weapons off the bench. Iverson was a superstar throughout the bulk of his career, but he is no longer capable of leading a successful team anywhere but the lottery. As a complementary piece, however, he could be valuable. Allen Iverson is probably going to start in the all-star game next month. He should cherish that start because his days starting NBA games could be and should be over.

Update: Detroit Bad Boys hit the nail on the head:

No one wants to admit it, but at this stage in his career, Allen Iverson is nothing more than T.J. Ford without a conscience. A useful player who has his moments, but not one who should be shoe-horned into the starting lineup at the expense of a player who actually fits the offense, has a track record of success in the system and will still be a member of the team next year. -- Matt Watson, DBB

Read more...

A Hall of Fame Backup?

The end of small ball seems imminent. The Pistons have played their best basketball in weeks during their past two games, in large part because an injury to RIP Hamilton forced the team to use a traditional lineup.

Michael Curry has noticed that the Pistons play significantly better defense with two big men on the floor. After yesterday’s game, Curry talked about how much better Rasheed Wallace plays when he has a second big man on the floor. Tayshaun Prince believes that both he and RIP Hamilton have suffered unnecessary wear and tear when they have to defend bigger players. It is obvious to coaches, players, and fans that the Pistons play their best defense with bigger lineups on the court. Curry hinted that a return to a more traditional lineup may be on the way. It appears that Amir Johnson will get the nod at power forward. Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, and Wallace all have secure spots in the starting lineup. The question is which of the Pistons’ all star shooting guards will be sent to the bench.

In a vacuum, the answer would probably be Hamilton. Allen Iverson is better at creating his own shot and is a future hall of famer still capable of huge scoring nights. However, when other factors are taken into consideration, it makes sense to start Hamilton.

The Pistons have plenty of scoring with their starting unit regardless of who starts at off guard. Stuckey, Prince, and Wallace are all quality offensive players who need the ball to be as effective as possible. Iverson’s game is predicated on dominating the ball and attacking defenses on his own. That style of play does not mesh well with players like Stuckey and Prince, but would be perfect alongside backups like Arron Afflalo, Jason Maxiell, and Antonio McDyess. Those three players can make open jumpers, but struggle to create their own offense.

Hamilton, on the other hand, is quickly developing chemistry with Stuckey. Hamilton averages almost four more points per game in games that Stuckey starts at point guard. RIP gets most of his shots within the flow of the offense and has succeeded alongside Prince and Wallace for years. Stuckey and Johnson would essentially fill the roles once held by Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace so the starting unit’s offense should be fairly similar to what the Pistons had earlier in the decade.

Defensively, if the Pistons were to start Stuckey and Iverson, they would be at a size mismatch at both guard positions. Iverson is undersized against almost anyone, while Stuckey would be playing out of position if asked to guard shooting guards. With Hamilton on the court alongside Stuckey, that problem would be solved.

When the Pistons replaced Amir Johnson with Kwame Brown in the starting lineup, part of Michael Curry’s motivation was the need to get bigger after they downsized from Billups to Iverson. If the Pistons go back to Johnson, it would only make sense to compensate by starting a big backcourt in Stuckey and Hamilton.

Another consideration is the future of this franchise. Iverson is probably a one year rental for the Pistons. Hamilton recently signed a contract extension and will be a big part of the team’s future assuming that he is not traded. If the Pistons falter in this season’s playoffs, whichever all start is coming off the bench will probably be an unhappy camper. Star players usually only accept lesser roles when a team is winning (see Owens, Terrell). A peeved Iverson can look for a new team next summer, but an alienated Hamilton is a problem the Pistons should try to avoid.

It is not quite a done deal that the Pistons will revert to a more traditional lineup, but the evidence is promising. Sending the team’s only surefire future Hall of Famer to the bench is best way for the Pistons to regain their status as contenders in the East.

Read more...

Allen Iverson: Better Off the Ball

Allen Iverson put together his best stretch of the season this past week. The move from point guard to shooting guard has been a big reason for his success. Despite impressive assist numbers, Iverson does not belong at point guard. True point guards – such as Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul, and Steve Nash – excel at controlling the pace of the game, feeding a hot hand, and keeping their teammates involved in the offense. Those players consistently make good decisions on the court and possess the leadership skills necessary to lead a team.

For all of his gifts, Iverson has never shown the ability manage games. Iverson excels at making plays for others with his ability to break down defenses; however he thinks like a playmaker instead of a distributor.

Rodney Stuckey, on the other hand, has shown excellent game awareness since being inserted into the starting lineup. Stuckey has opened games by getting his teammates involved. Later in the game, when Stuckey’s teammates have found a rhythm, Stuckey begins to assert himself. He is averaging ten assists per game since he was named a starter. The Pistons’ point guard duties should be in good hands with Stuckey for the rest of this decade and most of the next one.

With Stuckey running the show, Iverson has been brilliant offensively. In the four games since Stuckey became a starter, Iverson is averaging 19.5 points and 5.5 assists per game with a 58.3% effective field goal percentage*. Iverson has been liberated from the burden of playing point guard and the early returns are positive.

*Effective field goal percentage is determined by (FG+0.5*3P)/FGA. It is a measure of field goal percentage that accounts for the additional point that results from a made three pointer.

Read more...

Transitioning Away From Greatness

The Pistons are a team in transition. At least that is what people are saying. Members of the media and people in the Pistons’ organization have spent the six weeks since the Iverson trade preaching about “adjustment periods” and “a team trying to find itself.” “We are trying to adjust,” Antonio McDyess told The Detroit News. "In the midst of [the coaching change], we end up making the trade for Allen [Iverson], so that's been another transition," Michael Curry told The Augusta Chronicle. "It's going to take time,” RIP Hamilton told The Detroit Free Press. "We're in transition right now," Joe Dumars told CBS. Allen Iverson also followed the company line, telling The Detroit News that “I know we're going [to be] in a better situation at the end of the season than we are now."

In recent years, several teams have made franchise-altering transactions and seen no ill effects of the alleged transition. The 2004 Pistons went 20-5 after Rasheed Wallace officially joined the team. They went on to win a championship. The Suns went 18-11 after remodeling their franchise with Shaquille O’Neal last season, even though that trade may have made them worse. The Lakers also made a big move in 2008, and won 14 of their first 16 games with Pau Gasol. The 2005 76ers were below .500 before adding Chris Webber, but went 17-11 after he joined the team. The Pistons’ counterpart in the Iverson deal – Denver – is 16-4 while dealing with their end of the change.

The chatter about “transitions” and “adjustments” fills newspapers, but it is not necessarily worthwhile. There are benefits associated with chemistry and familiarity, but those benefits are not nearly as drastic as the Pistons would make one believe. Basketball games are won and lost based on three very tangible components: offense, defense, and rebounding. When a team makes a move that improves it combined performance in those three areas, the “transition” and “adjustment period” are suddenly much less burdensome.

What matters for the Pistons are those three tangible aspects of basketball. Is Iverson an upgrade for the Pistons in terms of offense, defense, and/or rebounding? Rebounding is a non issue, as both players are guards who have posted almost identical rebounding rates over their careers. Defense is another issue. The drop-off from Billups to Iverson is monumental. Billups is one of the better defensive point guards in the league while Iverson is one of the worst. Iverson lacks the size and focus to be an adequate defender and the results are obvious on the court. The Pistons have fallen from fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency last season to 20th this season even though every prominent member of the rotation other than Billups is back.

Offensively, Billups has a 22.2 PER compared to Iverson’s 16.55. While PER does not tell the whole story, comparing team performance might help. The Pistons had the number one offense in the league after the two games that Billups played for Detroit, but the team has fallen to 13th with Iverson. They were in the top-six each of the past three seasons.

People have the perception that Allen Iverson is a star. While in his prime, Iverson was a legitimate superstar, at this point in his career he is merely a good role player. The current incarnation of Allen Iverson is eerily similar to a backup guard on his old team – the Philadelphia 76ers. In 2008, Lou Williams had a strong season as the sixth man for the Sixers. Despite his small stature – he is generously listed at 175 pounds – he posted impressive numbers as a scoring guard. On a per 40 minute basis, he averaged 19.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 2.7 turnovers, and shot 42.4% from the field. His PER was 16.8. This season, on the same per 40 minute basis, Iverson is averaging 18.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 3.1 turnovers, and shooting 41.5% from the field for a 16.55 PER. Both players are shooting guards in a point guard’s body, both are weak defensively despite a high rate of steals, and both are best-suited for a bench role. While Iverson has a reputation as a player vastly superior to Williams, the evidence suggests that the difference between the players is not nearly as pronounced.

The Pistons took a step back by trading their best player for a player formerly capable of being a team’s best player. They are no longer an elite team. Instead, they are merely a good one. While others talk about the Pistons adjusting to Iverson, maybe Iverson needs to adjust to the fact that he is no longer a star.

Read more...