Starting Big

With the Allen Iverson fiasco taken care of, the Pistons are left with only one significant rotation question heading into the playoffs (assuming they qualify). Theoretically, the Pistons could consider starting the surprising Will Bynum ahead of Rodney Stuckey, but Bynum’s aggressive style has fit in nicely with the second unit. Michael Curry made it clear that he plans to keep Stuckey in the starting lineup. With the backcourt rotation settled, Michael Curry needs to decide which of his five big men to start and which two of the remaining three bigs will see the bulk of the bench minutes.

When Rasheed Wallace returned from injury last week, Michael Curry hinted that he may keep Kwame Brown in the starting lineup along with Antonio McDyess. As I see it, there are five possible combinations of big men the Pistons could start in the frountcourt.

1. Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess.
   Wallace and McDyess are the two best big men Curry has, but if he starts both, that greatly weakens his bench. Wallace and McDyess are the only Piston bigs with reliable outside shots. As a result, the Pistons like to have at least one on the court at all times in order to spread the floor. In the regular season – if Curry starts both – there will be stretches where the bench struggles to score. This is mitigated in the playoffs when Curry is likely to increase the playing time for both Wallace and McDyess, thereby ensuring that one of the two is on the court at all times.
2. Kwame Brown and Antonio McDyess.
   Chris McCosky of The Detroit News and Matt Watson of DetroitBadBoys.com both endorsed this arrangement, although they stated their opinions under the assumption that Iverson would remain a part of the rotation. According to 82games.com, the Pistons have performed far better when Kwame Brown plays alongside either Antonio McDyess or Amir Johnson as opposed to playing with Rasheed Wallace or Jason Maxiell. If the Pistons intend to pair Brown and Johnson, they should bring them off the bench behind Wallace and McDyess. The more plausible way to start Brown would be to play him with McDyess. That arrangement gives the starting unit strong rebounding and interior defense, while it adds a scoring threat to the bench in the form of Wallace. While this makes some sense, I can’t support benching Wallace. His all-around game has been more valuable than the play of either McDyess or Brown and the +/- numbers back me up, even if PER gives the edge to McDyess.
3. Rasheed Wallace and Amir Johnson.
   For all of the reasons stated above, it makes plenty of sense to play McDyess and Brown together. With that said, the Wallace/Johnson combination has been even more effective than the McDyess/Brown pairing. Also, Antonio McDyess has stated on numerous occasions that he is more comfortable with a bench role, while Wallace has started nearly every game he has played over the last 10 seasons. More importantly, in the playoffs, Wallace has typically played about 35 minutes per game, while McDyess has averaged less than two thirds of that amount. Even last year, with Ben Wallace and Chris Webber out of the way, McDyess played only 27.5 minutes per playoff game. Wallace has proven he can handle heavy minutes while McDyess has not, so if the Pistons are only going to start one of the two, it should be Wallace.
4. Rasheed Wallace and Jason Maxiell.
   As much as I prefer the previous arrangement, Michael Curry would likely opt for this one if he decides to start Wallace but not McDyess. In my estimation, that would be a colossal mistake. Going back to 82games.com’s “player pairs,” the Pistons have not outscored their opponents when you pair Jason Maxiell with any player currently on the Piston roster. For the reasons outlined here, Maxiell struggles because he is a 6’6 player who cannot shoot or dribble well enough to overcome his relative lack of size. He does several things well, but defensive rebounding, shooting, and man defense are not among them. Maxiell should not be starting for a playoff team until those things change.
5. Rasheed Wallace and Kwame Brown.
   If Curry decides he wants to separate Wallace and McDyess and start Brown, he may test this route for the reasons explained under option 3. Brown has been a force defensively and on the glass, so he could prove valuable enough to start during the playoffs. Wallace’s game would seem to compliment Brown’s nicely, but thus far the combination has not performed well. The downfall of this lineup would lie with the bench, as Wallace and Brown are the only centers on the roster.

In summary, Michael Curry has several logical choices, but the best move would be to start Wallace alongside either McDyess or Johnson. It appears that Johnson has fallen out of the rotation. If that is the case, Curry should maintain the lineup he used against Charlotte, which featured Wallace and McDyess. While this hurts the bench during the regular season, this should be less of a problem in the playoffs.

Read more...

Iverson Benched!

Breaking News! The Detroit News is reporting that Allen Iverson has been benched in favor of RIP Hamilton. This is great news and should enhance the Pistons' chances of qualifying for the playoffs. As Chris McCosky stated earlier in the day, if Iverson is unahppy with the move, the Pistons would probably be better off to buy out his contract than to start him over the more efficient Hamilton. Michael Curry has done a very poor job overall this season, but no one can blame him for being too inflexible with his rotations – in fact, he probably has made too many changes. With that said, he got this move right. Only time will tell if the move will actually pay off, but it cannot possibly lead to worse results than what the team has produced of late.

Read more...

The Consensus: Bench Iverson

The Allen Iverson bashing is picking up momentum. Putting Iverson on the bench would not solve all of this team’s problems, but it would definitely solve quite a few. In an effort to support the arguments made in The Detroit News, The Detroit Free Press, and on Fanhouse, here is a recap of the reasons the Pistons should reduce Iverson to a reserve role.

• Iverson is regarded as a terrible defender; however he also appears to be incapable of being part of an efficient offense.
• Part of the reason Iverson brings down an offense is his horrendous shot selection.
• Iverson allegedly kills team spirits.
• As crazy as this sounds, Iverson is no longer good enough to start for an above average NBA team. Not a single team with an above .500 record would benefit from starting Iverson over one of its current starters.
• Iverson dominates the ball while in the game. This has detrimental effects when he plays with the starters, but would be OK alongside the Piston reserves, many of whom struggle to create open looks.
• RIP Hamilton is the shooting guard of the future. It makes sense to allow him to play alongside Stuckey and Prince – the other core players here for the long haul – as often as possible. Since Stuckey and Prince both start, the logical move is to start Hamilton.
• Stuckey looks lost playing with Iverson. His development should be the top priority for the Pistons the remainder of this season. Allowing him to play in a more traditional offense –one that does not revolve around Iverson – would be ideal.

The Pistons won roughly 70 percent of their games between the start of the 2001-2002 season and the trade for Iverson. Since Iverson first suited-up in Piston blue, the team has won 45 percent of its games. Obviously there are a ton of other factors at work and the problems extend far beyond Iverson, but he clearly has not been of much help. Whatever the Pistons are doing now is not working. Limiting Iverson’s role is an option Michael Curry must explore. If this season can be salvaged, he has no other choice.

Read more...

Curry Can't Create Consistency

In coaching, there is a fine line between successfully making adjustments and maintaining consistency. If a coach is too rigid, that coach will fail to make the changes a team needs. When a coach is inflexible with rotations, there is less incentive for players to work to either maintain or expand their roles.

On the other hand, a coach has to maintain some level of stability. There is a middle ground between keeping pressure on a player to earn his minutes and forcing a player to look over his shoulder at every turn. A player needs the freedom to play aggressively without the fear that a few missteps will lead to a reduction in minutes.

All season long, players have been talking about the “transitions” and “adjustments” that accompany roster and coaching changes. Thanks to Michael Curry’s constant tinkering, players have had the added duty of adjusting to different minutes and rotation patterns on almost a game-by-game basis. A player has no chance to find a rhythm if his minutes are yo-yoing and he is forced to play alongside a different group of teammates almost every game.

Michael Curry has come nowhere to achieving balance between flexibility and stability this season. The first lineup change – Iverson replacing Billups – was out of Curry’s control. Since then, Curry had changed the starting lineup four times. After the trade, he first started Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, Wallace, and Johnson. He then inserted Kwame Brown in place of Johnson in order to add muscle to the team’s interior. When Brown failed to produce, he was replaced by Rodney Stuckey in hopes of starting the team’s five best players. Small ball was a disaster, so Curry re-inserted Amir Johnson, this time in place of RIP Hamilton. Today, Curry will be implementing his latest change: starting Antonio McDyess in place of Johnson.

So much for preserving credibility. Less than a month ago, Curry had this to say about the team’s starting lineup:

"This is it for the rest of the season," Curry said.
--The Grand Rapids Press

The players sound resigned to the constant tinkering.

"At this point, we've had so many different lineup changes, it really doesn't matter," Tayshaun Prince said. "We just have to start playing together and try to get some wins. Dyess will help us defensively and rebounding and he will make some shots. But the key to it all now is, who's going to be that big coming off the bench for us? There's good ways and bad ways to look at it.”
-- The Detroit News

The move also flies in the face of everything Curry has said about developing the young players and trying to stagger the minutes of Wallace and McDyess. Curry likes to have one his veteran big men on the court at all times because they are the only two Piston big men with reliable outside shots. When any combination of Johnson, Jason Maxiell, and Kwame Brown are on the floor together, opposing big men can sag into the paint and clog the middle. With Wallace and McDyess starting and finishing games together, Curry will struggle to find minutes for both Johnson and Maxiell – the two Piston big men who are actually a part of this team’s future. Also, while Johnson has not played as well as many had hoped, he is second on the team in net +/-. This implies that even though Johnson is not filling up the stat sheet, the team performs much better when he is on the court.

The man being promoted, Antonio McDyess, is currently saying all the right things, but past comments indicate he is not a fan of the switch.

"I can't see that happening," McDyess said Friday after practice. "Where I'm at mentally, I don't know if starting would be good for me. I think I work better coming off the bench.”
-- Detroit Free Press

This is another example of what Chris McCosky described as overcoaching. The players have already expressed plenty of frustration with Curry. Maybe he will learn from his mistakes and improve as a coach. Unless that happens, Curry’s constant experimenting and the associated poor results can lead to only one conclusion: he is failing as a head coach.

Read more...

Out of Focus

A big part of the reason Michael Curry elected to bench RIP Hamilton instead of Allen Iverson was that he needed to pair Hamilton with Will Bynum off the bench. Bynum worked to learn Hamilton’s tendencies and was beginning to develop chemistry with the three-time All-Star. Also, Bynum and Iverson are too small to play together, so Curry could not afford to play both with the second unit.

Curry has recently taken Bynum out of the rotation – Bynum has played just one minute total during the past four games. Now that Bynum is essentially out of the mix, Curry needs to re-consider his starting lineup. I explained here and here why RIP should be starting over Iverson. Iverson demonstrated with pitiful defense (explained here), poor shot selection (explained here), and poor results (evidence here), that he should not be starting. Michael Rosenberg did an outstanding job of explaining this very issue in today's Detroit Free Press.

Iverson, on the other hands, told the Detroit Free Press he wants to be an even bigger part of the Pistons’ offensive attack.

"I would love to be a focal part on the offensive end," [Iverson] said. "That's where I've been all my career. And that's why I play the game. That's the type of competitor I am. In crucial situations, I want the ball in my hands. But like I've been saying all along: The calls they make, I trust my teammates and the coaching staff to be able to get us over the hump."

It’s a good thing Iverson isn’t coaching. He was the “focal part” of the offense for ten full seasons in Philadelphia. From 1997 until 2006, the 76ers were 21st, 21st, 23rd, 25th, 13th, 23rd, 11th, 26th, 24th and 15th, by season, in offensive efficiency*. In total, the Iverson-led 76ers were in the bottom third of the NBA in offensive efficiency seven times, but did not finish in the top third once**. The Pistons are currently 23rd in offensive efficiency. They had finished amongst the top-six teams in offensive efficiency each of the previous three seasons. The Pistons would be well-served to take Iverson’s advice and do the exact opposite.

*Offensive efficiency is a measure of points scored per possession.
**There were 29 teams during the first seven seasons (through 2003) and 30 during the final three.

Read more...

Position to Succeed

I'm just focused on the 12 guys we have in uniform, trying to put them in a position to be successful out on the court and to win games.
–Michael Curry, via the Detroit Free Press

This a great point by Curry. It is a coach’s responsibility to put his players in a “position to be successful out on the court.” Is Curry practicing what he preaches? Which of the Pistons are in a better position with a small ball starting lineup of Stuckey, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace? Which would be better off if a traditional lineup of Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Johnson, and Wallace were to start games?

Rodney Stuckey: According to PER, Stuckey has been the Piston’s best offensive player this season. Among the Piston’s top-6 scorers, Stuckey is first in true shooting percentage. He is also the team’s best passer, so the more he has the ball in his hands, the better. Unfortunately, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace are all also scorers. When Stuckey plays alongside those four, he must focus on distributing instead of attacking. Stuckey averaged just 12.6 field goal attempts per game in the 12 games he started in a small ball lineup, compared to 15.4 shots a game when he started as part of a traditional lineup. Defensively, small ball hurts Stuckey. He is one of the better defensive point guards in the NBA, but alongside Iverson and Hamilton, he is often asked to defend shooting guards and small forwards. Stuckey has done well out of position defensively, but he is better-suited to defend point guards.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

RIP Hamilton: Defensively, this is no contest. Hamilton has no chance against many small forwards. Danny Granger and Kevin Durant, among others, have absolutely killed Hamilton. Hamilton is OK at defending shooting guards, but he has no chance against bigger forwards. Offensively, pairing Hamilton with Iverson is a simply a poor fit. Hamilton’s offense relies on ball movement, execution, and off-ball screens. Iverson is too small to set a pick and his game is predicated on dribbling and freelancing. Their games mix about as well as oil and water.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Tayshaun Prince: This is a full article where Prince explains that it is extremely grueling for him to deal with the physicality associated with playing power forward. Prince is not big enough to defend most opposing big men. Offensively, like Stuckey, Prince is one of the team’s best offensive players, but he is likewise the most likely to defer when he is on the court with four teammates who are also strong scorers. Prince has averaged 11.3 points per game when he starts at power forward and 16.0 points per game when he starts at small forward.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Rasheed Wallace: Wallace is much better defensively when he has a second big man on the floor. He is unable to defend the pick and roll the way he would like to when he does not have a second big man behind him to protect the paint and rebound. Offensively, Wallace spends most of the game spotting up for three-pointers regardless of who else is on the court.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Allen Iverson: Iverson is a low efficiency offensive player who is adept at creating shots, even though he has converted those shots at a low percentage this season. When he is taking shots away from Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace, he is hurting the Piston’s offense. When he plays alongside Afflalo, Maxiell, and McDyess, those players struggle to create their own shots and could benefit from the open looks Iverson can create. Defensively, Iverson will always be a disaster, but his impact might be less drastic if he is trying to defend backups.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Amir Johnson: Johnson is not much of an offensive player, but he is a strong defender and rebounder. In the starting lineup, the Pistons have enough offense that they could compensate for Johnson’s deficiencies in the same way that they played around Ben Wallace. Coming off the bench, it is hard to play Johnson alongside players like Afflalo and Maxiell, who also are best-suited to impact a game without the ball in their hands. Johnson also is excellent at attacking the offensive glass. Without Johnson, the Piston’s starting lineup is one of the worst offensive rebounding lineups in basketball.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Jason Maxiell/Kwame Brown: When the Pistons start Prince at power forward, it is difficult for Curry to find minutes for Maxiell and Brown. Both players have been racking up healthy DNPs lately. There would be minutes for at least one of the two in almost every game if the Pistons revert to a traditional lineup.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Antonio McDyess: Regardless of who starts, McDyess is usually on the court for 20-25 minutes per game and the Pistons rarely use a small ball lineup when McDyess is on the court.

Edge: Neutral

Arron Afflalo: Regardless of who starts, Afflalo usually does not enter the game until the Pistons have gone to a big lineup. Afflalo’s minutes may dip if the Pistons bring another shooting guard off the bench, but either way Afflalo should be part of a five man rotation for three spots on the perimeter, so there should be plenty of available minutes.

Edge: Small Ball

Will Bynum/Walter Herrmann/Alex Acker/Walter Sharpe: Regardless of who starts, none of these players has played well enough to earn regular minutes.

Edge: Neutral

Summary: The only Piston who even remotely benefits from small ball is Arron Afflalo. Even that is based on the possibility that his minutes would decrease if the Pistons revert to a traditional lineup. Of the ten Pistons in the rotation, eight would benefit if Michael Curry chooses a traditional lineup. If Curry meant what he said about putting his players in a position to succeed, he needs to start a traditional lineup.

Read more...

Rebound Like A Champion

Among the various problems with small ball is the complete inability of a small lineup to compete on the glass. While the Pistons typically only use a small ball lineup for a fraction of the games in which such a lineup starts, those few minutes are enough to put the team at a substantial disadvantage in the rebounding battle. This is bad news for the Pistons since each of the past 13 NBA Champions have been strong rebounding teams. The last team below average rebounding team to win the Championship was the 1995 Rockets, who tied for the 10th best regular season record before turning it on in the playoffs.


Here are the rebound rates for the top-three title contenders in 2009.


Here is a breakdown of the rebound rates for the Pistons in games they start a small ball lineup compared to games in which they start a traditionally-sized lineup.



*RR is rebound rate, the percentage of missed shots that a team rebounds. 50% is average.

Read more...

No Dice for Curry

Michael Curry explained why he reverted to small ball:

"It's a simple matter of getting your best five guys out there as much as possible," Curry said.
– ESPN.com

If Curry really wants his “best five guys” to start the game, he should keep Antonio McDyess in mind. PER is hardly a perfect stat (for example, it overvalues Allen Iverson’s steals, which usually occur when he gambles instead of playing sound defense), but it does give a good indication of how productive a player is offensively and on the glass. So far this season, Iverson’s PER is 16.09, Hamilton is at 15.67, and McDyess is at 15.2. According to those stats, the players are relatively close in terms of offensive production.

Defense, however, is another story. McDyess is one of the better defenders on the team and protects the paint when he is in the game. Iverson and Hamilton are the two worst defenders in the Pistons rotation. Overall, McDyess has been a far more productive contributor for the Pistons than either Iverson or Hamilton.

If a team with Stuckey, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace played against Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, McDyess, and Wallace, the latter squad would win upwards of 70 percent of the games. If Curry chooses to hurt the team by playing small ball so be it, just try not to lie to the fans about the motivation (egos).

Read more...

Actions Speak Louder Than Words

Michael Curry has said all the right things. Well, he had said all the right things until “Curry said he'll start his small lineup of Rodney Stuckey and Allen Iverson in the backcourt, and Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace in the frontcourt.” (Courtesy of Ted Kulfan, The Detroit News) Here’s a look back at some of Curry’s smarter, but not necessarily as honest, statements.

Curry: I think the toughest is when you’re making lineup changes, especially when guys are doing everything that you ask them to do but maybe for the team’s sake you need to adjust their role. I think that’s always the toughest, but if you’re honest then I don’t think you have as much of a problem. No matter what, at certain times players are not going to like decisions you make. When I was a player, I was the same way. But they respect it knowing that you’re honest and truthful with them and that you’re doing the things that are best for the team and the organization to be successful.
– Keith Langlois, Pistons.com, 6/12/08

"Defensively we have been good in stretches when we have two bigs on the floor," coach Michael Curry said. "One of the things we give up with our small lineup is that inside presence. Not having that other big on the floor, teams attack even more on the inside. When they attacked today, even when they got around Amir or 'Sheed, the other big was there to protect the basket."
– Chris McCosky, The Detroit News, 12/27/08

"The big lineup makes us better defensively and at the end of the day we have to make sure we are good enough defensively," he said. "We know we can go to that small lineup if we have to. We are able to play both, so we will decide it game by game. But the small group has to get better defensively. It has gotten better but it isn't on par with what we can do with the big lineup."
– Chris McCosky, The Detroit News, 12/30/08

"We've been putting emphasis on (defense)," coach Michael Curry said after the Pistons held a team under 80 points for the second time in three games Wednesday. "It's just there's certain things certain lineups can't do."
…
"Amir made some mistakes (against the Nets), but because of his size and ability to rebound, he's really solidified things for us," Curry said.
– Chris McCosky, The Detroit News, 1/2/09

"I wouldn't expect them [Iverson and Hamilton] to like coming off the bench," Curry said. "Both have been starters their whole career. But the reality is, we've got good guys on this team and they are all willing to do whatever it takes for the team to be successful. Whatever decisions we make, is because we feel its the best thing for us to be able to get the most of everybody on the team, regardless if a guy likes it or not.

"They are going to be OK because the No. 1 thing is, they want to win."
– Chris McCosky, The Detroit News, 1/12/09

"We've seen just from the data in our games that we know defensively ... it's no secret when we got two bigs and (Tayshaun Prince) at the three-spot we're our best defensively, and at the end of the day that's normally what's going to drive most of our decisions," Curry said.
– Vince Ellis, Detroit Free Press, 1/13/09

Read more...

Curry Chooses Safe Path to Mediocrity

Michael Curry was hired because he allegedly would have the respect of his players. The theory was that, as a former player, he would do a better job communicating with his players than Flip Saunders. Today, Curry showed he does not have the respect of his players or the communication skills to make a tough, but necessary, decision. It appears that Curry is merely a player's coach more interested in appeasing egos than winning games.

Curry said he'll start his small lineup of Rodney Stuckey and Allan Iverson in the backcourt, and Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace in the frontcourt. -- Ted Kulfan, The Detroit News

The Pistons are a more successful team when they play a traditional lineup. Small ball is not effective. Curry should have benched Allen Iverson. Curry needs to bite the bullet, ruffle some feathers and sit one of his all-star guards. Until he does so, expect the Pistons to be no better than an average NBA team.

Read more...

Do the Right Thing: Bench Iverson

Michael Curry is giving every indication that there is room for only one shooting guard in the starting lineup. When RIP Hamilton returns from injury, either he or Allen Iverson is likely headed to the bench. The two shooting guards have both made numerous all-star teams and neither seems too happy about the prospect of watching the first few minutes of action seated by the coaches.

The motivation for bringing one of the two off the bench is clear – defense – but there is another question that is not being asked. Even if Hamilton is taken out of the equation, does Allen Iverson really contribute to the starting lineup?

At this point in his career, Iverson has clear strengths and weaknesses on the court. Iverson is better than most at creating offense; he is 66th among 322 qualified players in “usage rate” – the percent of a team’s possessions that a player uses, based on shots, assists, and turnovers. He also excels at getting to the free throw line. The latter skill has been especially valuable for a Piston team that rarely gets to the stripe. While Iverson’s ability to create open shots and earn free throw attempts is important, it is difficult to determine another strong point of his game.

His weaknesses, however, are more prevalent. While Iverson takes a lot of shots – a team-leading 15.2 per game – he does not make nearly enough to justify his shot selection. Iverson has made 40.9% of his field goal attempts and has the worst adjusted field goal percentage among the 12 Pistons usually on the active roster.

Iverson averages 5.5 assists per game, but his 2.7 turnovers a night negate that production. Iverson is a great ball handler who rarely has the ball taken from him, but he forces passes and often leaves his feet to pass – two habits that lead to his high turnover rate. Iverson is unable to contribute as a point guard, despite his dribbling skills, due to poor decision making. He is incapable of being a team’s floor general and therefore is relegated to playing shooting guard.

Partially due to the fact that Iverson is a shooting guard in an undersized point guard’s body, he is a disaster defensively. Iverson is badly undersized against nearly all of his opponents and usually has to defend point guards while his own team’s point guard checks shooting guards. On plays where Iverson switches or rotates onto a bigger player down low, he is completely helpless. When Iverson is able to match up against a player his size, he gambles far too frequently and struggles to stay in front of his man. Opponents also have little trouble rising up and shooting right over the 5’11 Iverson.

Iverson is still capable of contributing to an NBA team. His ability to free himself for makeable shots can be valuable when he is on the floor with defense oriented teammates. Unfortunately for Iverson, the Pistons starting lineup includes Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace, three players capable of creating offense more efficiently than Iverson.

The Pistons bench, however, struggles to score at times. Arron Afflalo, Jason Maxiell, and Antonio McDyess are all capable shooters, but none of the three is proficient at creating open shots. Iverson would complement that group well.

At this stage of his career, Iverson’s game most resembles that of players like Louis Williams, Ben Gordon, Leandro Barbosa, and a younger Monta Ellis. All of those players are undersized shooting guards and poor defenders who have excelled as offensive weapons off the bench. Iverson was a superstar throughout the bulk of his career, but he is no longer capable of leading a successful team anywhere but the lottery. As a complementary piece, however, he could be valuable. Allen Iverson is probably going to start in the all-star game next month. He should cherish that start because his days starting NBA games could be and should be over.

Update: Detroit Bad Boys hit the nail on the head:

No one wants to admit it, but at this stage in his career, Allen Iverson is nothing more than T.J. Ford without a conscience. A useful player who has his moments, but not one who should be shoe-horned into the starting lineup at the expense of a player who actually fits the offense, has a track record of success in the system and will still be a member of the team next year. -- Matt Watson, DBB

Read more...

Fastbreak Buckets 1.10.09

-Determining a starting lineup going forward could prove to be a huge challenge for Michael Curry. RIP Hamilton told The Detroit News that he has no interest in adapting to a bench role. Allen Iverson still believes that he is a star and it remains to be seen if he would be willing to be a sixth man for the first time in his career. Rodney Stuckey is clearly the team’s best point guard and Tayshaun Prince belongs at small forward, so it is in the Pistons’ best interest that either Hamilton or Iverson come off the bench. Hopefully, one of the two will relent and embrace a bench role. Until then, there will be some uncomfortable moments for the Pistons.

-The last two games have been almost exactly mirror images of each other for the Pistons. Against Portland, Detroit led by as much as thirteen, allowed Portland to drill away at the lead throughout the second half, and then watched the game slip away after Travis Outlaw made a very difficult jumper. In Denver, Detroit trailed by as much as fourteen, drilled away at the lead throughout the second half, and then stole the game after Tayshaun Prince hit a tough jumper.

-Before the 2008 season, Jason Maxiell worked on improving his free throw shooting. The extra practice time showed up on the stat sheet. Maxiell – who missed more than half of his free throw attempts during his first two seasons – converted on 63.3% of his free throws last season. This season, Maxiell seems to have reverted to his old ways. He has made just 53.2% of this season’s attempts and has had a number of embarrassing misses. Maxiell has played fewer minutes this season than he did a season ago. If he can start making upwards of 60% of his free throws again, those minutes might start to creep back up.

-Antonio McDyess was booed throughout last night’s game in Denver. The jeers served as a reminder of how lucky the Pistons are that he returned. McDyess has been invaluable this season. He is a complete player who helps the Pistons in so many ways. It is no coincidence that one of the Pistons’ worst four week stretches of the past five years coincided with the time Dice missed.

Read more...

Earning His Chair

Michael Curry took a lot of heat when the Pistons were struggling midway through December. Detroit fans had come to expect consistent excellence out of their Pistons. When the Pistons failed to deliver in the first six weeks of the season, blamed was assigned to Curry – a new variable in the equation. Now that the Pistons have won seven of their last eight games, Curry deserves his share of the credit. Curry has made a number of moves that have worked in the Pistons favor. He has altered the starting lineup, accommodated for injuries, and removed unproductive players from the rotation.

Curry decided one month ago that Rodney Stuckey needed to start and handle the point guard duties full time. The move has proven ingenious. Stuckey has played so well that he is being mentioned with Rajon Rondo and Devin Harris with regards to the best young point guards in the East. The move has also had a positive impact on the team’s two shooting guards. Allen Iverson has been allowed to play off the ball, where he is able to play his game without worrying about quarterbacking the offense. RIP Hamilton has also benefited from playing alongside a true point guard, who can get him the ball when and where he needs it.

The drawback with starting Stuckey was that he replaced Kwame Brown in the starting lineup, thus forcing the Pistons to play a badly undersized lineup. An injury to RIP Hamilton allowed the Pistons to revert to a traditional lineup, and the early returns are positive. The Pistons are 5-1 – despite a flurry of injuries – since reverting to a traditional lineup. Curry has hinted that he will stick with the bigger lineup even after Hamilton returns.

An early criticism of Curry was that he played too many players. Early in the season, 10 or 11 Pistons would often see important minutes in a given game. Curry appears to have weeded out a few of his less productive players and settled on a more stable nine man rotation. Will Bynum has not played much of late and Walter Hermann has only seen spot minutes. There is a chance that Kwame Brown will also be squeezed out of the regular rotation when Wallace returns from injury.

When Curry was named head coach, he assured the world that the team’s level of intensity would no longer waver. In the past, the Pistons were criticized for “flipping a switch,” or exerting maximum effort only occasionally. This season, the problem seems to have disappeared. Rasheed Wallace remains lackadaisical on the offensive end, but it is hard to imagine that any coach other than Larry Brown could get through to Sheed. The rest of the Pistons have played hard every game this season. Part of the reason for this is that Curry has kept to his mandate that the players who play best will play in crunch time.

Another Curry promise was that he would help develop the team’s young players. Stuckey is playing his way into Most Improved Player discussions. Arron Afflalo is still not much of a scorer, but he has increased his shooting accuracy and become a lockdown defender that helps the Pistons in a variety of ways. Amir Johnson has developed into a great defensive player under Curry and may have finally locked up a permanent spot in the rotation. Jason Maxiell has taken a slight step back, but he remains a valuable contributor for the Pistons.

As long as Curry sticks with a big, traditional lineup, he has the Pistons headed in the right direction. He is developing the young players, invoking intensity from his team, and winning games. Curry also has the respect of his players – there been minimal, if any, public criticism of Curry from the players. He will face his biggest challenge yet when Hamilton is ready to return. So far, Curry has done an admirable job with the roster. If he chooses the correct starting lineup while keeping all of his players content and on the same page, he will have truly earned his promotion to head coach.

Update (1.13.09): Curry undid much of his progress with one misguided maneuver today. He announced that he will return to a small ball lineup and that Will Bynum will again be a significant part of the rotation.

Read more...

Comparing the Lineups

The Pistons various starting lineups this season can be broken down into three categories:

1. Small ball (PG, SG, SG, SF, PF: Stuckey, Iverson, RIP, Tayshaun, Sheed). When the Pistons start a small ball lineup, they are 5-3.
2. No true point guard (SG, SG, SF, PF, C: Iverson, RIP, Tayshaun, Sheed, Amir/Kwame). When the Pistons start the game without a true point guard, they are 7-8.
3. Traditional lineup (PG, SG, SF, PF, C: Billups/Stuckey, RIP/Iverson, Tayshaun, Sheed, Amir). When the Pistons start a traditional lineup, they are 7-0.

Obviously these are relatively small sample sizes and a number of other factors, especially strength of schedule, are at work. Nevertheless, the Pistons have clearly played their best basketball when a traditional lineup starts the game. The Pistons will not win every game that they deploy a traditional lineup, but they will definitely win quite a few.

Read more...

A Hall of Fame Backup?

The end of small ball seems imminent. The Pistons have played their best basketball in weeks during their past two games, in large part because an injury to RIP Hamilton forced the team to use a traditional lineup.

Michael Curry has noticed that the Pistons play significantly better defense with two big men on the floor. After yesterday’s game, Curry talked about how much better Rasheed Wallace plays when he has a second big man on the floor. Tayshaun Prince believes that both he and RIP Hamilton have suffered unnecessary wear and tear when they have to defend bigger players. It is obvious to coaches, players, and fans that the Pistons play their best defense with bigger lineups on the court. Curry hinted that a return to a more traditional lineup may be on the way. It appears that Amir Johnson will get the nod at power forward. Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, and Wallace all have secure spots in the starting lineup. The question is which of the Pistons’ all star shooting guards will be sent to the bench.

In a vacuum, the answer would probably be Hamilton. Allen Iverson is better at creating his own shot and is a future hall of famer still capable of huge scoring nights. However, when other factors are taken into consideration, it makes sense to start Hamilton.

The Pistons have plenty of scoring with their starting unit regardless of who starts at off guard. Stuckey, Prince, and Wallace are all quality offensive players who need the ball to be as effective as possible. Iverson’s game is predicated on dominating the ball and attacking defenses on his own. That style of play does not mesh well with players like Stuckey and Prince, but would be perfect alongside backups like Arron Afflalo, Jason Maxiell, and Antonio McDyess. Those three players can make open jumpers, but struggle to create their own offense.

Hamilton, on the other hand, is quickly developing chemistry with Stuckey. Hamilton averages almost four more points per game in games that Stuckey starts at point guard. RIP gets most of his shots within the flow of the offense and has succeeded alongside Prince and Wallace for years. Stuckey and Johnson would essentially fill the roles once held by Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace so the starting unit’s offense should be fairly similar to what the Pistons had earlier in the decade.

Defensively, if the Pistons were to start Stuckey and Iverson, they would be at a size mismatch at both guard positions. Iverson is undersized against almost anyone, while Stuckey would be playing out of position if asked to guard shooting guards. With Hamilton on the court alongside Stuckey, that problem would be solved.

When the Pistons replaced Amir Johnson with Kwame Brown in the starting lineup, part of Michael Curry’s motivation was the need to get bigger after they downsized from Billups to Iverson. If the Pistons go back to Johnson, it would only make sense to compensate by starting a big backcourt in Stuckey and Hamilton.

Another consideration is the future of this franchise. Iverson is probably a one year rental for the Pistons. Hamilton recently signed a contract extension and will be a big part of the team’s future assuming that he is not traded. If the Pistons falter in this season’s playoffs, whichever all start is coming off the bench will probably be an unhappy camper. Star players usually only accept lesser roles when a team is winning (see Owens, Terrell). A peeved Iverson can look for a new team next summer, but an alienated Hamilton is a problem the Pistons should try to avoid.

It is not quite a done deal that the Pistons will revert to a more traditional lineup, but the evidence is promising. Sending the team’s only surefire future Hall of Famer to the bench is best way for the Pistons to regain their status as contenders in the East.

Read more...

RIP Assists from the Trainer’s Room

The Pistons may have caught the best injury break of the season yesterday. A groin injury forced RIP Hamilton out of the lineup and allowed Amir Johnson to start in his place. While Hamilton’s injury is not considered serious, the ramifications could have a huge positive impact on the Piston’s season.

In yesterday’s post, I argued that reverting to a more traditional lineup would be beneficial for the Pistons. The case for a more traditional lineup centered on the improved rebounding and defense that a bigger lineup would provide.

In the eight games that the Pistons played small ball, they were outrebounded by an average of 5.6 rebounds per game. Last night, with Johnson starting, the Pistons won the board war by nine. The Pistons also played one of their best defensive games of the season, allowing the Bucks to score just 76 points on 30.4% shooting.

Milwaukee has a solid team and the Bucks were favored in last night’s contest. Thanks in large part to Johnson, the Pistons had a victory locked up by the end of the third quarter. Johnson had 11 rebounds – including 5 on the offensive end – and blocked four shots on the night.

Based on the way that Johnson has played in the last two games, Michael Curry has no choice but to drastically increase Johnson’s minutes. If Hamilton’s injury forced Curry to realize the value of a player like Amir Johnson, it may very well have been a blessing in disguise.

Read more...

Small Ball Leads to Bad Basketball

Eight games ago, the Pistons brought Antonio McDyess back onto the roster. McDyess essentially replaced Kwame Brown in the rotation and has provided a huge upgrade. Despite the improvement of the team’s second big man, the Pistons have not played any better in the last eight games than they did earlier in the season. The Pistons are 5-3 in that stretch, but only one win was by more than six points and the team played an extremely soft schedule.

There are other reasons the Pistons should have played well during that stretch. The team is more than a month into the alleged transition to life with Allen Iverson. Also, Rodney Stuckey has played the best basketball of his career recently. Despite all of the factors working in the Pistons’ favor, the team has continued to play mediocre basketball.

The culprit is a simple one: small ball. On the same day that McDyess returned to the team, Michael Curry altered the starting lineup to include Rodney Stuckey in place of a big man. While Stuckey has excelled as a starter, the team has struggled overall. The small ball arrangement has caused numerous problems for the Pistons, almost all of which could be fixed by reverting to a traditional lineup.

The biggest challenge facing the Pistons is rebounding. The Pistons have been outrebounded in every single game that they have used the small ball lineup. They have been outrebounded by an average of 5.6 rebounds per game during the eight-game stretch. Tayshaun Prince has done his part, grabbing 8.6 boards a game since moving to power forward. The problems arise with the rest of the frontcourt. RIP Hamilton has grabbed three rebounds per game over the last eight games. That production was fine when he played shooting guard, but will not cut it at forward. Rasheed Wallace inexplicably stopped rebounding after Thanksgiving. He averaged 9.5 rebounds per game in the team’s first 13 games, but has pulled down just 5.4 boards per game in the 14 game since the holiday.

The Pistons were a fairly average rebounding team before the switch to small ball. Extrapolated over a full season, their rebounding performance over the past eight games would place them amongst the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. The switch to small ball transformed the Pistons from a decent rebounding team into a horrible one.

Another mess created by small ball has occurred on the defensive end. With the current starting lineup, the Pistons face size mismatches at various positions against virtually every team in the league. Prince is not big enough to guard most power forwards. Against Utah, Prince was abused in the post by Mehmet Okur. Hamilton faces similar problems when the team plays bigger small forwards such as Danny Granger, who dropped 42 points against Detroit. The Pistons have enough defensive issues when Iverson tries to guard anyone. The last thing Michael Curry needed to do was compound the problem by playing three starters out of position.

The other major dilemma posed by small ball is the distribution of minutes. The Pistons cannot start Prince at power forward if they hope to play Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson significant minutes. Maxiell and Johnson are the team’s only talented young big men. Both are quality NBA players now and are a major part of the team’s future. Curry is doing a major disservice to the franchise if he squeezes either of those players out of the rotation.

Johnson did not play in six of the first seven games of the small ball era. Last night, he checked into the game late in the third quarter last night, with the Pistons trailing by one. Johnson immediately started contesting shots and crashing the boards. His energy helped trigger a 24-9 run. Iverson was exceptional during the stretch and was able to be aggressive because he played alongside Johnson and Afflalo, players who defend, hustle, and do not need the ball to contribute. Curry left the lineup in the game even after it appeared to run out of gas and the results were not pretty. However, it was obvious from that sequence that Amir Johnson needs to play and that his game complements Iverson’s.

In a way, Michael Curry’s hand has been forced by the make-up of his roster. With Iverson, Hamilton, and Prince, the Pistons have three all-star talents for two positions on the wing. It is the coach’s responsibility to determine which of those players is best-suited for a bench role and then convince that player that an individual sacrifice will benefit the team. Ideally, the Pistons should bench Iverson in favor Johnson or Maxiell.

The Pistons are drifting through the regular season. They play well some nights, but poorly on far too many. Most NBA teams would love to have the talent that the Pistons boast. Those other teams would probably be wise enough to deploy that talent correctly.

Read more...

Fastbreak Buckets: 12.19.09

-Stuckey tracker: In the ten games since Thanksgiving, Stuckey is averaging 13.4 points, 7.9 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 2.1 turnovers per game. He is shooting 53% from the floor, and has made half of his 14 three point attempts. Stuckey has also played very solid defense for the Pistons. While he will probably never be an elite defender, he is an above average defensive point guard and still has room to improve.

One clear benefit of the Iverson trade was that it opened up the point guard role for Stuckey. In theory, this should expedite his development as he should get a full season’s worth of on the job training. On the flip side of that coin, Stuckey no longer has Billups as a tutor and the trade has resulted in a rotation that will squeeze Amir Johnson’s minutes.

There was a stretch during November where Stuckey was often the worst player on the court. He was pressing at times and appeared hesitant at others. He had a miserable time trying to stay in front of Devin Harris against New Jersey and then was set back by a pair of medical problems. He suffered a dizzy spell during a game against Boston and took a hard fall after a collision with Shaq in Phoenix. It is impossible to know how much of his struggles can be traced to those two instances, but there is a good chance they contributed.

For whatever reason, Stuckey turned a corner in his development three weeks ago and has not looked back yet. As a result of his recent strong play, Stuckey’s PER is up to 17.34, a hugely impressive number for a 22 year old who fell to the middle of the first round in 2007. Stuckey is not a star yet, but he appears to be well on his way.

-Pistons fans should not get any crazy ideas a result of the team’s three game win streak. The Pistons squeaked past a mediocre Indiana team at home, barely held on against a bad Charlotte team, and then beat a horrible Washington team at the Palace. None of the three victories were particularly impressive, although there were encouraging signs. Stuckey and Iverson both had their best weeks of the season, while RIP Hamilton played some of his better basketball since the trade. Antonio McDyess also played well and showed no ill effects from his five week hiatus. This weekend’s games against Utah and Atlanta should be a much better indicator of this team’s ability.

-In the four games since the Pistons switched to a small ball lineup, they have been outrebounded by an average of 7.8 rebounds per game. Poor rebounding is a recipe for disaster in the playoffs and the Pistons must find a way to correct this problem if they hope to advance in this season’s playoffs. Amir Johsnon leads the team in rebound rate* and last season finished behind only Nazr Mohammed, who is no longer on the roster. Johnson also finished with the team lead in 2007. He has not played in the last four games.

(*Rebound rate is the percentage of missed shots a player rebounds while on the court)

Read more...

Fastbreak Buckets 12.13.08

-During an interview on “The Stoney and Wojo Show” Thursday, Michael Curry explained that RIP is struggling to adjust to fewer shot attempts. (Listen here). Curry has also said that RIP needs to adjust to fewer minutes. Curry’s theories are interesting; unfortunately they are contradicted by facts.

Hamilton is actually playing slightly more minutes per game this season compared to last. As far as field goal attempts are concerned, RIP is shooting 0.3 fewer field goals per game, but is more than compensating with an extra 1.5 free throw attempts per game. RIP is clearly adjusting to life without Billups, but there is no need for Curry to contrive additional transitions.

-Rodney Stuckey made an eye-opening four three pointers against Indiana. He is blossoming as a starter and has improved greatly in just the past few weeks. Early this year he struggled to determine when he should look to score and when he should pass. The results were a low field goal percentage and a high rate of both turnovers and offensive fouls. Part of his early struggles can be attributed to the dizzy spell he suffered against Boston and the hard foul he took from Shaquille O’Neil a week later.

However, Stuckey turned a corner against a few weeks ago and has not looked back. Since Thanksgiving, Stuckey is averaging 12.9 points, 7.3 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.6 steals and just 2.1 turnovers, while playing 27.4 minutes per game. He has converted 52% of his field goals, including five for 11 from long range, during the eight-game stretch.

The two most encouraging aspects of Stuckey’s play have been his jump shot and his decision-making. Stuckey looks more confident and has been much more accurate on perimeter shots recently. The big question mark with Stuckey has always been his jumper. If he continues to knock down 18-footers along with the occasional three-ball, he can be a star. Stuckey also seems to be learning when to attack and when to set up his teammates.

-A longer post about small ball is on the way, but in the meantime, here are two small ball-related noted from the Pacer game:

1) Amir Johnson did not play against Indiana and Jason Maxiell was limited to 14 minutes. In those 14 minutes, Maxiell grabbed three offensive rebounds. The rest of the Pistons combined for two offensive rebounds the entire game. Johnson and Maxiell are fourth and sixth, respectively, among 318 qualified players in offensive rebound rate – the percentage of a team’s missed shots that a player rebounds while in the game.

2) I sent an E-Mail to Need4Sheed before yesterday’s game and made the following statement: “Here's hoping Curry is smart enough to abandon small ball before Granger lights up RIP.” Apparently the message was not relayed to Michael Curry, who elected to let RIP defend Granger most of the game. Granger responded with 42 points on just 21 shots.

Read more...

The Change We Need

There is a lot to like about Michael Curry. He’s straightforward with the media and apparently the same way with his players. He is committed to rewarding strong play and does a decent job of making players earn their minutes. Curry does not over-substitute; he instead uses regular substitution patterns that usually make sense. He is also patient with his players and, as a result, is less hesitant that most coaches to play young players who might make mistakes, but deserve minutes based on their talent and production.

With that out of the way, it is time he earns his keep in this league. The Pistons have lost three consecutive games against teams that range from mediocre to horrible. Since the day Curry was hired, he has preached accountability. The most significant difference between Curry and Flip Saunders is that Curry is supposed to have the respect of his players. If he truly has complete command over his troops, he needs to force one of his stars to swallow his pride and accept a role off the bench.

At the time of the Iverson trade, Curry claimed he had no fear of handling Iverson. He also has stated that he will reward strong play and make decisions that put this team in a position to succeed. With Iverson starting in a small ball arrangement, his actions appear to contradict his words.

Iverson is one of the greatest scorers to ever play the game and is still one of the better scorers in the NBA. He is not, however, a good fit for the Piston’s starting lineup. Iverson excels on offense and struggles mightily on defense. With Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace entrenched in the starting lineup, the Pistons have plenty of scoring. On the other end of the court, Iverson’s lack of size and poor focus make him a liability. He has been regularly abused by opposing point guards since coming to Detroit. Also, the current arrangement forces the rest of the starting unit to play out of position and face a size mismatch on a routine basis.

The solution is a simple one, provided that Curry actually has authority over of his players. The Pistons need to start Amir Johnson instead of Iverson. This change would solve a number of problems currently plaguing the team. One major improvement would occur on defense, where Amir would help protect the paint, rebound, and allow each of the starters to return to defending players who play their position. The Pistons would no longer be undersized against most teams and their weakest defender would be off the court to start the game.

A second benefit of the switch would be a better distribution of shot opportunities. The Pistons two best scorers are Iverson and Hamilton. By playing the two at the same time they cut into each other’s shot attempts. Also, when the Pistons go to their second unit, neither of the team’s top scoring threats is in the game. While there should still be plenty of occasions where Iverson and Hamilton are on the floor together, the Pistons should try to minimize instances where both are out of the game.

An improved distribution of minutes would also result from the switch away from small ball. The fact that Johnson and Jason Maxiell did not play against Washington is inexcusable. Each player deserves at least 15 minutes per contest. By starting Johnson, his minutes would obviously increase. Iverson would likely see a slight drop in minutes, but he could still expect to play at least 30 minutes per game. As for Maxiell, Curry made a poor decision against Washington when he played Hermann at power forward while Maxiell sat in his warm-ups. Hermann has a sweet stroke from the perimeter and plays hard, but he is nowhere near the player that Maxiell is defensively or on the glass. Another advantage of the switch is that the Pistons could use Iverson and Afflalo as their backup guards, thus returning Will Bynum to his situational role. By reducing the minutes that Iverson, Hermann, and Bynum play, there should be plenty of opportunities for Maxiell and Johnson to see the court.

If the Pistons elect to start Johnson instead of Iverson, it would be easy for Curry to develop a stable nine man rotation. He would start Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Johnson, and Wallace, while Iverson, Afflalo, Maxiell, and McDyess would see the bulk of the minutes off the bench. Bynum, Hermann, and Kwame Brown would each be placed in specialist roles where they only play if match-ups, foul trouble, or poor play from other players dictate that they belong on the court. The aforementioned rotation would allow Iverson to take his shots alongside backups who do not need the ball, it would improve the team’s defense throughout the game, and it would be a step toward making sure that the Pistons no longer lose three consecutive games against weak competition.

Read more...