Transitioning Away From Greatness

The Pistons are a team in transition. At least that is what people are saying. Members of the media and people in the Pistons’ organization have spent the six weeks since the Iverson trade preaching about “adjustment periods” and “a team trying to find itself.” “We are trying to adjust,” Antonio McDyess told The Detroit News. "In the midst of [the coaching change], we end up making the trade for Allen [Iverson], so that's been another transition," Michael Curry told The Augusta Chronicle. "It's going to take time,” RIP Hamilton told The Detroit Free Press. "We're in transition right now," Joe Dumars told CBS. Allen Iverson also followed the company line, telling The Detroit News that “I know we're going [to be] in a better situation at the end of the season than we are now."

In recent years, several teams have made franchise-altering transactions and seen no ill effects of the alleged transition. The 2004 Pistons went 20-5 after Rasheed Wallace officially joined the team. They went on to win a championship. The Suns went 18-11 after remodeling their franchise with Shaquille O’Neal last season, even though that trade may have made them worse. The Lakers also made a big move in 2008, and won 14 of their first 16 games with Pau Gasol. The 2005 76ers were below .500 before adding Chris Webber, but went 17-11 after he joined the team. The Pistons’ counterpart in the Iverson deal – Denver – is 16-4 while dealing with their end of the change.

The chatter about “transitions” and “adjustments” fills newspapers, but it is not necessarily worthwhile. There are benefits associated with chemistry and familiarity, but those benefits are not nearly as drastic as the Pistons would make one believe. Basketball games are won and lost based on three very tangible components: offense, defense, and rebounding. When a team makes a move that improves it combined performance in those three areas, the “transition” and “adjustment period” are suddenly much less burdensome.

What matters for the Pistons are those three tangible aspects of basketball. Is Iverson an upgrade for the Pistons in terms of offense, defense, and/or rebounding? Rebounding is a non issue, as both players are guards who have posted almost identical rebounding rates over their careers. Defense is another issue. The drop-off from Billups to Iverson is monumental. Billups is one of the better defensive point guards in the league while Iverson is one of the worst. Iverson lacks the size and focus to be an adequate defender and the results are obvious on the court. The Pistons have fallen from fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency last season to 20th this season even though every prominent member of the rotation other than Billups is back.

Offensively, Billups has a 22.2 PER compared to Iverson’s 16.55. While PER does not tell the whole story, comparing team performance might help. The Pistons had the number one offense in the league after the two games that Billups played for Detroit, but the team has fallen to 13th with Iverson. They were in the top-six each of the past three seasons.

People have the perception that Allen Iverson is a star. While in his prime, Iverson was a legitimate superstar, at this point in his career he is merely a good role player. The current incarnation of Allen Iverson is eerily similar to a backup guard on his old team – the Philadelphia 76ers. In 2008, Lou Williams had a strong season as the sixth man for the Sixers. Despite his small stature – he is generously listed at 175 pounds – he posted impressive numbers as a scoring guard. On a per 40 minute basis, he averaged 19.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 2.7 turnovers, and shot 42.4% from the field. His PER was 16.8. This season, on the same per 40 minute basis, Iverson is averaging 18.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 3.1 turnovers, and shooting 41.5% from the field for a 16.55 PER. Both players are shooting guards in a point guard’s body, both are weak defensively despite a high rate of steals, and both are best-suited for a bench role. While Iverson has a reputation as a player vastly superior to Williams, the evidence suggests that the difference between the players is not nearly as pronounced.

The Pistons took a step back by trading their best player for a player formerly capable of being a team’s best player. They are no longer an elite team. Instead, they are merely a good one. While others talk about the Pistons adjusting to Iverson, maybe Iverson needs to adjust to the fact that he is no longer a star.