One Man's Rotation

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Now that Allen Iverson has been relegated to a backup role, the Pistons need to work out their rotation. Obviously, there are countless factors that influence the rotation on a given night –matchups, health, foul trouble, slumps, and score to name a five – but this is a rough breakdown of how I would dole out minutes on a given night, assuming a close game with everyone healthy. Will Bynum should be out of the rotation. He is too small to play with Iverson and whenever Iverson is not on the court, Stuckey should be playing point guard. Kwame Brown can see spot minutes during games when the Pistons face a dominant low post scorer.

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Pistons at Magic, 2.27.09

Friday, February 27, 2009

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (27-29) at Orlando Magic (42-15)
Spread: Magic -9.5
My Pick: Magic by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

  1. Starting Lineup. Allen Iverson will not start (or play). Despite the man’s Hall of Fame credentials, the Pistons should be much better off without him in the starting lineup.
  2. Happier Hamilton. RIP should be eager to back up his words and prove that he belongs in the starting lineup.
  3. Big Bodies. The Pistons have at least three players – and possibly four – that are capable of slowing down Dwight Howard. Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess both have the strength and veteran savvy to frustrate Howard. Jason Maxiell did an excellent job using leverage and positioning to contain Howard during last year’s playoffs. Lastly, Kwame Brown was superb against Shaq; he may be able to replicate his success against Orlando’s Superman. While no team can stop Howard, the Pistons are better-suited than most to limit his production.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

  1. Rashard Lewis. Lewis could kill the Pistons from behind the arc if Wallace and McDyess are slow to close out on him.
  2. Stoppable Force. The Pistons are 22nd in offensive efficiency. The Magic are third in defensive efficiency. Scoring could be a serious challenge for the Pistons tonight.
  3. Friday. The Pistons have lost three consecutive Friday games, none of which occurred during the current eight-game losing streak.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 93, Orlando 85
Notes:

  • The last nine games should end any and all questions about whether Allen Iverson should be starting. Since Iverson’s injury, the Pistons outscored New Orleans by six and Orlando by eight.
  • Hamilton reverted to 2003 form, running around picks, drilling mid-range jumpers, and drawing fouls. RIP attempted 10 free throws in a game for the first time since November 13. Too often this year, RIP has relied on isolation or taken difficult three pointers. It was nice to see the old RIP back.
  • Jon Barry on Rodney Stuckey: “I think it’s been easier for Stuckey to not have Allen Iverson here because [Iverson] demands the ball so much.” I concur. Stuckey scored 22.
  • Kwame Brown appears to have improved his free throw shooting. He was shooting below 40 percent in mid-January, but he has made four in a row. His form looks much better than it did earlier in the season.
  • Will Bynum struggled badly. Every other Piston – with the possible exception of Rasheed Wallace, who missed a number of makeable shots – played well.

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Iverson Benched!

Breaking News! The Detroit News is reporting that Allen Iverson has been benched in favor of RIP Hamilton. This is great news and should enhance the Pistons' chances of qualifying for the playoffs. As Chris McCosky stated earlier in the day, if Iverson is unahppy with the move, the Pistons would probably be better off to buy out his contract than to start him over the more efficient Hamilton. Michael Curry has done a very poor job overall this season, but no one can blame him for being too inflexible with his rotations – in fact, he probably has made too many changes. With that said, he got this move right. Only time will tell if the move will actually pay off, but it cannot possibly lead to worse results than what the team has produced of late.

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Pistons at Hornets, 2.25.09

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (27-28) at New Orleans Hornets (33-22)
Spread: Hornets -8.5
My Pick: Hornets by 11

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

  1. RIP Hamilton. No one on the Hornets can match up with RIP. Defensive specialist James Posey is too big and too slow to chase Hamilton around screens all night.
  2. Law of Averages. The Pistons have to win eventually...right?
  3. Depth. The Hornets have virtually no depth at any position but small forward. Assuming that Jason Maxiell’s number comes up in rotation roulette, he could have a big game.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

  1. Chris Paul. Depending upon what one thinks of Kobe Bryant, an argument can be made that the Pistons are on game four of a five game stretch in which they play the NBA’s five best players (Duncan, LeBron, Wade, Paul, Howard). The Pistons struggle to defend quicker guards like Ramon Sessions and Devin Harris. Against Paul, the possibilities are downright scary.
  2. David West. At this stage in their careers, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess lack the quickness to stay with West. Also, he could burn the Pistons with jumpers if the Pistons have to help off of him to contain Paul.
  3. Back to Back. The Pistons are 0-5 in the second half of a back to back in 2009.

Update:
Final Score:
Detroit 87, New Orleans 90
Notes:

  • As far as moral victories go, this was as good as it gets. The Pistons played hard and actually outscored New Orleans by six after Iverson left with an injury.
  • Arron Afflalo and Amir Johnson are out of the rotation. Curry typically re-shuffles the deck two or three times per month, so they should return to the court before long.
  • Chris Paul has mastered an old Chauncey Billups trick. When Paul has a defender chasing him, he often will stop on a dime. The result is that the pursuing defender tends to run into Paul and commit a foul. Rodney Stuckey was victim of the tactic tonight.
  • Rasheed blew a fuse after a no-call on a push from behind as he tried to grab a rebound. He disagreed with a second call a few plays later and made sure the refs knew his feelings. Sheed earned himself at least a few days of vacation with the outburst.
  • Another no-call on an over-the-back may have been the difference in the game. With just over 30 seconds remaining, David West pushed his way toward a critical offensive rebound. The refs swallowed their whistles.
  • The Hornets’ bench is atrocious.

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The Consensus: Bench Iverson

The Allen Iverson bashing is picking up momentum. Putting Iverson on the bench would not solve all of this team’s problems, but it would definitely solve quite a few. In an effort to support the arguments made in The Detroit News, The Detroit Free Press, and on Fanhouse, here is a recap of the reasons the Pistons should reduce Iverson to a reserve role.

  • Iverson is regarded as a terrible defender; however he also appears to be incapable of being part of an efficient offense.
  • Part of the reason Iverson brings down an offense is his horrendous shot selection.
  • Iverson allegedly kills team spirits.
  • As crazy as this sounds, Iverson is no longer good enough to start for an above average NBA team. Not a single team with an above .500 record would benefit from starting Iverson over one of its current starters.
  • Iverson dominates the ball while in the game. This has detrimental effects when he plays with the starters, but would be OK alongside the Piston reserves, many of whom struggle to create open looks.
  • RIP Hamilton is the shooting guard of the future. It makes sense to allow him to play alongside Stuckey and Prince – the other core players here for the long haul – as often as possible. Since Stuckey and Prince both start, the logical move is to start Hamilton.
  • Stuckey looks lost playing with Iverson. His development should be the top priority for the Pistons the remainder of this season. Allowing him to play in a more traditional offense –one that does not revolve around Iverson – would be ideal.

The Pistons won roughly 70 percent of their games between the start of the 2001-2002 season and the trade for Iverson. Since Iverson first suited-up in Piston blue, the team has won 45 percent of its games. Obviously there are a ton of other factors at work and the problems extend far beyond Iverson, but he clearly has not been of much help. Whatever the Pistons are doing now is not working. Limiting Iverson’s role is an option Michael Curry must explore. If this season can be salvaged, he has no other choice.

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Pistons at Heat, 2.24.09

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (27-27) at Miami Heat (29-26)
Spread: Heat -4
My Pick: Pistons by 5

Three reasons the Pistons will win:
1. Pride. The Pistons have been hammered by the press lately. Tonight may be the night they show the season is not a lost cause.
2. Stuckey. The second year guard gets up to play one of his idols – Dwyane Wade.
3. Miami’s Frontcourt. Jermaine O’Neal is overrated, Michael Beasley is unpolished, and Udonis Haslem and Jamario Moon are nothing more than competent role players. Wade is badly in need of an improved supporting cast.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:
1. Dwyane Wade. Wade is BY FAR the best player in tonight’s game. Wade might be able to match the 50 points he scored in his last game if the Pistons continue to play pitiful perimeter defense.
2. Rotation Roulette. Walter Herrmann and Amir Johnson will probably be back in the rotation tonight. The Pistons complain about playing like a bunch of strangers who have been thrown together. Considering that there is no consistency with who plays on a given night, the complaint is understandable.
3. Miami’s Record. Here is the complete list of teams with a winning record who Detroit has beaten twice this season: ____. Detroit has already beaten Miami and the Heat have a winning record. Can the Pistons buck the trend?

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 91, Miami 103
Notes:

-As expected, Rotation Roulette was in full force for the Pistons:

  1. Amir Johnson played two first half minutes, picked up two fouls, and was sent to the bench for the rest of the night.
  2. In a baffling move, Walter Herrmann was apparently handed Arron Afflalo’s role as backup shooting guard. Herrmann can be useful in place of Tayshaun Prince, not alongside him.
  3. Kwame Brown saw significant action for the first time in a while.

-Dwyane Wade went wherever he wanted, whenever he wanted.
-Yakhouba Diawara, Daequan Cook, and Jamario Moon made 8-14 three pointers. That marksmanship should surprise only those who are unaware of how poorly the Pistons close out on shooters.
-The lone bright spots for Detroit were Antonio McDyess, who was deadly from mid-range, and Jason Maxiell, who has picked up his intensity on the defensive glass.

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Crawl to the Playoffs

In the Eastern Conference, there are currently ten teams vying for four playoff spots. Only eight and a half games separate fifth-place Miami from 14th-place Toronto. The disappointing Pistons find themselves in the middle of the fight, which is odd considering how little fight the team has shown in recent games. Here is a breakdown of the ten teams and my assessment of their playoff chances.

Miami Heat (29-26): Despite a negative point margin on the season, the Heat have the fifth-best record in the East. While Jermaine O’Neal is no longer capable of providing the boost many are expecting in Miami, the Heat should have little trouble securing a playoff berth. Between their cushion on the field and lack of threatening challenger, the Heat stand a strong chance to be the worst fifth seed in the history of the current playoff format.
Postseason Chances: 90%

Detroit Pistons (27-27): The Pistons are slumping and the new additions are deservedly taking the blame for failing to provide leadership. The upcoming schedule won’t do the Pistons any favors, but the team should be able to eke out a playoff berth. In an interesting twist, all eight of the games the Pistons will play in April will be against teams on this list.
Postseason Chances: 60%

Philadelphia 76ers (27-28): After initially running circles around opponents without Elton Brand, the Sixers have come back to Earth with four straight losses. They play a road heavy schedule the rest of the way, but should manage to earn the right to be swept by an Eastern Conference powerhouse.
Postseason Chances: 70%

Milwaukee Bucks (28-31): The Bucks have been hammered by injuries, but their talented young players have allowed them to remain competitive. Aside from the Bobcats, the Bucks give the most consistent effort of any team on this list. The Bucks will benefit from a soft schedule the final five weeks of the season.
Postseason Chances: 50%

Chicago Bulls (25-31): The Bulls upgraded their roster at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Vinny Del Negro is still running the show. The Bulls are another team with a friendly schedule from here out.
Postseason Chances: 50%

New Jersey Nets (25-32): The Nets have the third worst point differential in the conference. They also have the worst forwards in the league. Devin Harris will have to be spectacular for the Nets to have a chance.
Postseason Chances: 15%

New York Knicks (24-32): Mike D’Antoni cemented his reputation as a great coach just by keeping this team in the playoff discussion. Any time Larry Hughes is expected to provide a boost, there are serious roster problems at hand. Chris Duhon, Hughes, Quentin Richardson, Wilson Chandler, and Jared Jefferies are all capable of being the eighth best player on a good team. The problem in New York is that instead of having seven superior players, they have three (Lee, Robinson, and Harrington).
Postseason Chances: 20%

Indiana Pacers (24-35): I thought this was a playoff team before the season started. It might have been if the injury bug not stung two thirds of the rotation. When healthy, this team might be the fifth best team in the East.
Postseason Chances: 15%

Charlotte Bobcats (22-34): Larry Brown has done a terrific job with this cast of overpaid role players. The lack of a go-to scorer will keep them out of the playoffs despite stout defense.
Postseason Chances: 20%

Toronto Raptors(22-36): Shawn Marion will provide a big boost in Toronto, but it will be too little too late. This team dug itself a huge hole that it will be unable to dig itself out of.
Postseason Chances: 10%

In the end, just 37 or 38 wins will be enough to secure a playoff berth. Unless Detroit or Philly gets hot, it’s likely that three teams will make the Eastern Conference playoffs with a record below .500.

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Pistons at Cavaliers, 2.22.09

Sunday, February 22, 2009

I’m going to experiment with a new feature to CTBAAF: Game Threads. Before each Piston game, I will post three reasons to expect a Piston victory and three reasons to expect a loss. After each game, I will update the post with notes regarding the outcome. Just like Michael Curry’s rotations, this feature is subject to change often and for no apparent reason. Feedback is encouraged.

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (27-26) at Cleveland Cavaliers (42-11)
Spread: Cavs -10
My Pick: Cavs by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:
1. Rasheed. He led the Pistons to a victory over Cleveland earlier this season. He might be able to do it again.
2. RIP. The Cavs have no one to stop him.
3. Expectations. Lately, when I expect a Piston victory, the team has lost. Tonight I’m expecting a loss…

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:
1. LeBron James. King James is freakishly good at playing basketball. His PER is over 32. Not a single Piston is above 16.5. LeBron’s weakness is supposed to be his jump shot. In related news, he made his first eight non-full-court-prayer three point attempts in his last game.
2. The Q. The Cavs are 24-1 at Quicken Loans Arena this season.
3. The Pistons. The Pistons have been losing winnable games lately. Tonight’s assignment is even more daunting.

Update
Final Score: Detroit 78, Cleveland 99
Notes:

-At this point, the Cavaliers are a superior offensive, defensive, and rebounding team to the Pistons. Also, they are better-coached and play harder. Other than that, the teams are pretty evenly-matched.
-Once again, no Amir Johnson (until garbage time). So many Pistons barely look like they are trying out there. Good things happen with Johnson on the court simply because he puts forth more effort than most of his teammates.
-The Pistons offense has been pitiful most of the season. Lately, the defense has followed suit.

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The Wheels....

Thursday, February 19, 2009


Have Fallen Off
According to Oscar Wilde, "Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes." In that sense, Michael Curry is gaining quite a bit of experience this season.

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Slumping Economy Could Benefit Pistons

As the world economy continues to flounder, possibilities keep opening up for the Pistons. I am working on a multi-part series on the Pistons options going forward, but in the meantime I want to bring up one possibility. Many teams are hell-bent on cutting payroll and saving money. The Pistons, on the other hand, will have major financial flexibility beginning this summer. If Joe Dumars determines that the players he wants will not be available until 2010, he could own the summer by sending out financial lifelines in exchange for assets.

If a team is trying to cut its 2010 payroll, that team could offer the Pistons an asset along with an expiring contract to take off their hands. For example, the New Orleans Hornets are trying to cut costs. Antonio Daniels is set to earn 6.6 million dollars in the final year of his contract next season. Would New Orleans offer the Pistons Julian Wright if Detroit is willing to take Daniels off the Hornets’ cap for next season? The Hornets could save roughly 12 to 15 million with such a deal between shedding salary, avoiding the luxury tax, and receiving their share of the tax that other teams pay. The Pistons would simply have to pay Daniels contract for a season and would be handed a talented young forward for their troubles.

Would Washington consider a similar deal with JaVale McGee along with either Brendan Haywood or Mike James? Would New Jersey offer a draft pick if the Pistons take Stromile Swift off their payroll? There are tons of possibilities out there that would allow the Pistons to acquire an asset without seriously harming their cap space for the summer of 2010. Dumars could try to add premier free agents like Carlos Boozer or David Lee this summer, but he should also consider collecting smaller assets this summer and making a major move in 2010.

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Curry Can't Create Consistency

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

In coaching, there is a fine line between successfully making adjustments and maintaining consistency. If a coach is too rigid, that coach will fail to make the changes a team needs. When a coach is inflexible with rotations, there is less incentive for players to work to either maintain or expand their roles.

On the other hand, a coach has to maintain some level of stability. There is a middle ground between keeping pressure on a player to earn his minutes and forcing a player to look over his shoulder at every turn. A player needs the freedom to play aggressively without the fear that a few missteps will lead to a reduction in minutes.

All season long, players have been talking about the “transitions” and “adjustments” that accompany roster and coaching changes. Thanks to Michael Curry’s constant tinkering, players have had the added duty of adjusting to different minutes and rotation patterns on almost a game-by-game basis. A player has no chance to find a rhythm if his minutes are yo-yoing and he is forced to play alongside a different group of teammates almost every game.

Michael Curry has come nowhere to achieving balance between flexibility and stability this season. The first lineup change – Iverson replacing Billups – was out of Curry’s control. Since then, Curry had changed the starting lineup four times. After the trade, he first started Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, Wallace, and Johnson. He then inserted Kwame Brown in place of Johnson in order to add muscle to the team’s interior. When Brown failed to produce, he was replaced by Rodney Stuckey in hopes of starting the team’s five best players. Small ball was a disaster, so Curry re-inserted Amir Johnson, this time in place of RIP Hamilton. Today, Curry will be implementing his latest change: starting Antonio McDyess in place of Johnson.

So much for preserving credibility. Less than a month ago, Curry had this to say about the team’s starting lineup:

"This is it for the rest of the season," Curry said.
--The Grand Rapids Press

The players sound resigned to the constant tinkering.

"At this point, we've had so many different lineup changes, it really doesn't matter," Tayshaun Prince said. "We just have to start playing together and try to get some wins. Dyess will help us defensively and rebounding and he will make some shots. But the key to it all now is, who's going to be that big coming off the bench for us? There's good ways and bad ways to look at it.”
-- The Detroit News
The move also flies in the face of everything Curry has said about developing the young players and trying to stagger the minutes of Wallace and McDyess. Curry likes to have one his veteran big men on the court at all times because they are the only two Piston big men with reliable outside shots. When any combination of Johnson, Jason Maxiell, and Kwame Brown are on the floor together, opposing big men can sag into the paint and clog the middle. With Wallace and McDyess starting and finishing games together, Curry will struggle to find minutes for both Johnson and Maxiell – the two Piston big men who are actually a part of this team’s future. Also, while Johnson has not played as well as many had hoped, he is second on the team in net +/-. This implies that even though Johnson is not filling up the stat sheet, the team performs much better when he is on the court.

The man being promoted, Antonio McDyess, is currently saying all the right things, but past comments indicate he is not a fan of the switch.

"I can't see that happening," McDyess said Friday after practice. "Where I'm at mentally, I don't know if starting would be good for me. I think I work better coming off the bench.”
-- Detroit Free Press
This is another example of what Chris McCosky described as overcoaching. The players have already expressed plenty of frustration with Curry. Maybe he will learn from his mistakes and improve as a coach. Unless that happens, Curry’s constant experimenting and the associated poor results can lead to only one conclusion: he is failing as a head coach.

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Dice to Start

Monday, February 16, 2009

Breaking News. Antonio McDyess will replace Amir Johnson in the starting lineup. A longer post will follow, but quite simply, I'm not a fan of the move. Here is Michael Curry's explanation:

“As I talked about going into the break, I'm going to start him instead of Amir,” Curry said of McDyess. “Hopefully Amir will play better with some second line guys. Hopefully we can be more solid defensively, especially when we have the help with 'Dyess in there and also to stay consistent."
-- Detroit Free Press

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Phenomenal Freshmen

Saturday, February 14, 2009

The current rookie class is loaded. It is shaping up to be the deepest rookie class in recent memory. The rookies almost defeated the sophomore for the first time in the history of the Rookie Challenge last night. Here’s a breakdown of the impact players in the current rookie class.
(The players and groups are listed in order of how much value I project each player to have in 2011)

Potential Stars

Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago Bulls, (16.12 PER, 1st pick) – The top pick in the draft is leading the Bulls in minutes. He is the present and the future for the once proud franchise. He has the talent to join the likes of Deron Williams, Devin Harris, and Tony Parker as the best young point guards not named Chris Paul.

Greg Oden, C, Portland Trail Blazers, (17.87, 1st in 2007) – The top pick in the 2007 draft is considered a rookie this season because he missed last season with an injury. Oden is already a rebounding monster. If he can develop a few post moves, he has all-star talent.

O.J. Mayo, SG, Memphis Grizzlies, (15.54, 3rd) – Mayo is an incredibly gifted shooter. He already leads the Grizzlies in scoring and should continue to do so for years to come. There is talk of him moving to point guard, but he is probably better-suited to be an off guard. He has the total package at that position.

Building Blocks

Kevin Love, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves, (17.70, 5th)
– Love has also been an outstanding rebounder during his rookie season. He is incredibly skilled, but lacks the athleticism to defend elite forwards. Despite his shortcomings, Love’s combination of rebounding ability, strength, and all-around offensive game will allow him to be a valuable NBA player for years to come.

Eric Gordon, SG, Los Angeles Clippers, (14.44, 7th) – Gordon is the only rookie in the conversation with Mayo as far as elite shooters go. The former Hoosier has a picture-perfect stroke. He can also put the ball on the floor and get to the basket. Gordon has been asked to carry a bit too much of the load on a disastrous Clipper team, but he has acquitted himself nicely.

Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder, (16.11, 4th) – Westbrook is uber-athletic. He needs work on his jump shot, but he has the physical skills to be an elite guard in this league. He joins Kevin Durant and Jeff Green to form possibly the best trio of 22 and under players this league has ever seen.

Brook Lopez, C, New Jersey Nets, (17.05, 10th) – Lopez has exceeded expectations more than any other player in the lottery. He is already a solid NBA center at the tender age of 20. Between Lopez and Harris, the Nets are set for a long while at the two toughest positions to fill.

Michael Beasley, SF, Miami Heat, (15.67, 2nd) – Part of the reason the Heat were willing to deal Shawn Marion is that they feel Beasley is ready to take on a larger role. Beasley is ridiculously talented, but there are questions about his defense and shot selection. If he can maintain his scoring output while improving his efficiency, he could soar to the top of this class.

Quality Starters

Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies, (16.09, 48th in 2007) – Gasol has played so well that he has made the trade for his older brother look somewhat respectable. The 24-year-old is among the plethora of quality rookie centers.

Jason Thompson, PF, Sacramento Kings, (13.52, 12th) – The man Joe Dumars allegedly wanted for the Pistons has shown flashed of brilliance on the court. He has cooled after a quick start, but he should be able to form a dynamic frontcourt with Spencer Hawes as the Kings rebuild.

D.J. Augustin, PG, Charlotte Bobcats, (14.45, 9th) – Any rookie point guard who earns trust and praise from Larry Brown has to be taken seriously. Augustin is lightning quick. He should improve quickly under Brown’s tutelage.

Good Backups

Rudy Fernandez, SG, Portland Trail Blazers, (15.55, 24th in 2007) – The comparisons to Manu Ginobili were inevitable for the gifted Spaniard. He has been a dynamo off the bench for Portland. If Brandon Roy continues to block him from the starting lineup, he will compete for Sixth Man of the Year honors regularly.

Marreese Speights, PF, Philadelphia 76ers, (21.06, 16th) – The fact that he ranks this low says heaps about the depth of this rookie class. Speights’ per-minute numbers are awesome. The Florida product will have the opportunity to prove that he can maintain his production in extended minutes now that Elton Brand is on the shelf.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, SF, Milwaukee Bucks, (11.84, 37th) – Mbah a Moute plays great defense and is a strong rebounder. He struggles to do much offensively, but he should stick in the NBA for a decade.

Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers, (17.48, 17th) – Hibbert has been a poor fit on the up-tempo Pacers, but he has been effective in limited minutes. The centers playing in front of Hibbert – Jeff Foster and Rasho Neterovic – are both 32, so Hibbert should have a chance to carve out a larger role in future seasons.

Courtney Lee, SG, Orlando Magic, (10.92, 22nd) – Another player who should benefit from a recent injury, Lee should see time at point guard with Jameer Nelson out. Lee is an excellent defender in the mold Arron Afflalo.

Rotation Players

George Hill, PG, San Antonio Spurs, (12.28, 26th) – Hill has struggled with his shot, but has been solid in other areas for the Spurs. With Gregg Popovich’s help, Hill should develop into a strong backup behind Tony Parker.

JaVale McGee, PF, Washington Wizards, (16.97, 18th) – The Flint, Michigan native has been a bright spot during an otherwise dreary season in Washington. He is long and athletic, but still has plenty of room to improve on both ends of the court.

Nicolas Batum, SF, Portland Trail Blazers, (11.64, 25th) – Batum has had ample opportunity to strut his stuff while Martell Webster tries to come back from injury. The Frenchman can shoot the three and defend. If he can add anything else to his repitorie, he has serious potential.

Jerryd Bayless, PG, Portland Trail Blazers, (10.89, 11th) – The fourth Blazer to appear on this list has been woefully inconsistent. He has the physical tools to produce in this league. It remains to be seen if he can put those tools together.

J.J. Hickson, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers, (14.40, 19th) – Hickson is another player who Dumars was rumored to be interested in. His role should expand as Ben Wallace’s athleticism continues to deteriorate.

Mario Chalmers, PG, Miami Heat, (13.36, 34th) – The former Jayhawk has been forced into a starting role with the Heat. He has a great outside shot, but otherwise has not shown enough to warrant a permanent spot in the starting lineup.

Anthony Morrow, SG, Golden State Warriors, (15.57, Undrafted) – Morrow has shown a deft touch from outside, but he would struggle to replicate his per-minute numbers without the Warriors’ run-and-gun system.

Others to Watch

These players have either been inconsistent, lacked minutes, or some combination of the two.

Ryan Anderson, PF, New Jersey Nets, (13.05, 21st)
Kosta Koufos, C, Utah Jazz, (15.62, 23rd)
Anthony Randolph, PF, Golden State Warriors, (15.52, 14th)
Danilo Gallinari, SF, New York Knicks, (13.69, 6th)
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers, (12.90, 35th)
Joe Alexander, SF, Milwaukee Bucks, (10.52, 8th)
Darrell Arthur, PF, Memphis Grizzlies, (9.65, 27th)


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Fastbreak Buckets 2.12.2009

Thursday, February 12, 2009

This edition of Fastbreak Buckets will be an around the league edition since far too many Piston related topics are simply depressing right now.

- Individuals in the Cavalier organization, from the owner to the overpaid former Piston, acted as if a travesty had been committed when Mo Williams was left off the All-Star Team until two spots opened up due to injury. The gist of their argument is that the Cavs have a gaudy record, others teams with similar gaudy records all have multiple All-Stars, therefore they deserve multiple All-Stars. This theory is flawed beyond belief.

First off, the Cavs do have two players worthy of playing in the All-Star Game in LeBron James and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Ilgauskas went down with an injury that kept him out most of January and thus submarined his chance of making the team.

With or without Ilgauskas on the team, Williams simply does not belong. The Cavaliers claim that their players should be rewarded for the team’s success, but the All-Star Game is simply not the correct venue. Teams that win games are rewarded for their success in the spring, when they earn a high seed in the playoffs. The All-Star Game is the prize for the individuals who have had the most success, regardless of their teammates.

The player that many analysts believe was undeservingly given Williams’ spot is Devin Harris. How they can make this claim is baffling. Harris is averaging four more points per game despite attempting just one more field goal a night than Williams. Harris is also well ahead in assists and steals. As a result, Harris’ PER of 22.7 puts the 17.0 mark of Williams to shame. To put that in perspective, that gap in PER is similar to the difference between Allen Iverson with the Pistons and Allen Iverson with Philly in 2002. The fact that Cleveland is 17 games ahead of New Jersey has nothing to do with Cleveland having a superior point guard and everything to do with the difference between playing LeBron James and Bobby Simmons at small forward. It’s bad enough that Harris – an elite point guard – plays for a borderline playoff team because of a lame supporting cast. Compounding his misery by keeping him off the All-Star Team because of that same supporting cast would be excessive.

-One player with a legitimate gripe about not making the All-Star Team is Kevin Durant. Few are paying attention to the lowly Thunder, but their second year small forward has been sensational of late. P.J. Carlesimo played Durant, out of position, at shooting guard last season and at the start of this one. Since Carlesimo was fired and new coach Scott Brooks moved Durant to his natural position – small forward – Durant has been one of the most dominant offensive forces in the game.

In 41 games since Brooks took the clipboard, Durant is averaging 26.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game on 48.8% shooting. He has also making an average of 1.6 three pointers and 6.6 free throws per contest during that stretch. In 16 games from January 9th to February 10th, Durant scored fewer than 27 points only twice. If Durant has not already passed Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce to establish himself as the best small forward not named LeBron James, he appears to be well on his way.

- The injury woes that have hammered the Milwaukee Bucks have come with a pair of blessings in disguise. Two of their young players have emerged as building blocks for the future of the franchise. Ramon Sessions might have been the steal of the 2007 draft based on his recent play. The 56th pick in ’07 draft has been starting in place of the injured Luke Ridnour. In his last five games, Sessions is averaging an incredible 24.8 points, 9.8 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game despite just taking 13.8 shots a night. He has done so by converting 53.6% of his field goal attempts and living at the free throw line to the tune of nearly 12 attempts per game.

The other Buck having a coming out party this season is Charlie Villanueva. After a lackluster first two and a half seasons in Milwaukee, he has exploded into 2009. Since the calendar turned, he is averaging over 20 points, nearly seven rebounds, and roughly a block and a steal per game, despite turning the ball over just one a half times per contest. He has made over half of his field goal tries and better than 40% of his 89 three point attempts during 22 games this year. The strong play of Sessions and Villanueva is the primary reason the Bucks are hanging in the playoff race despite a beaten up roster that was lackluster to begin with.

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Flip-ing Off The Offense

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

With all the talk about the Pistons’ inconsistent defense, the real problem has been the offense. In the previous three seasons, the Pistons placed somewhere between fourth and seventh in the NBA in both offensive efficiency* and defensive efficiency* every season. While that shows remarkable consistency, it also proves that the Pistons’ performance did not mesh with their reputation as an all-defense, some-offense outfit. Instead, the Pistons were a remarkably balanced team that excelled on both sides of the ball.

This season, the balance is gone. When the Pistons traded Chauncey Billups – a strong defender – for notoriously poor defender Allen Iverson, slippage on defense was to be expected. Not surprisingly, the Pistons have fallen to 11th in defensive efficiency this season.

The roster moves do not, however, fully explain the deterioration of the teams’ offense. The Pistons began this season with last season’s rotation mostly intact – save for the Billups/Iverson swap and the loss of Jarvis Hayes. Iverson is one of the most prolific scorers of all time, while Hayes is a streak shooter who can do little else, so it would have been reasonable to expect the Pistons to replicate last season’s results offensively.

The Pistons have not, however, come anywhere close to matching last season’s performance offensively. After three straight seasons with a top-six offense, the Pistons have fallen to 21st in offensive efficiency. The Pistons lead only Charlotte and Memphis in points per game, but that is, in part, a product of the team’s relatively slow pace. The fact that the Pistons are in the bottom third of NBA teams in offensive efficiency requires no such qualifiers; the Pistons have been a poor offensive team this season.

In spite of their reputations, Billups is actually a much better offensive player than Iverson. That swap explains some of the offensive problems, but the disparity between the players is not nearly large enough to explain the difference between an elite offensive team and a below average one. Since the personnel do not fully explain the plunge in offense, the likely culprit seems to be the coach.

Michael Curry simply has not done enough to put his players in a position to succeed. The ball movement, player movement, and spacing that were so prevalent under Flip Saunders have all diminished enormously. The Pistons have lost more than two assists per game off of their average from last season. Players like RIP Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince have had to find much more off of their offense through isolations, compared to previous seasons when they relied more heavily on screens and off the ball movement. Last season, 53% off Prince’s baskets were assisted. This season, that number has plummeted to 36%.

Flip Saunders had many faults as a coach; he struggled to connect with his players, players such as Rasheed Wallace often ignored his instructions down the stretch of close games, and his playoff record leaves something to be desired. With that said, Saunders’ playbook and ability to make in-game adjustments offensively were exceptional. Saunders is one of the best in the world at constructing offensive schemes.

Saunders was proficient at hiding limited offensive players like Ben Wallace, Amir Johnson, and Dale Davis. They would set picks, occasionally go backdoor for a dunk, and remain in position to fight for offensive rebounds, all while staying out of the way of their more skilled teammates. This season, Johnson, Kwame Brown, and to a lesser extent Jason Maxiell, seem to simply clog the paint on offense. They tend to drift near the basket without apparent purpose. While part of this can be pinned on the players, Curry deserves much of the blame.

With all of the talk about Curry’s starting lineups and rotations, his inability to mold a first rate offense out of so many talented parts has been his biggest failing. Curry is in his first season as coach so there is plenty of room for Curry to develop. In the meantime, Piston fans should appreciate what they had in Flip Saunders and hope that Curry either learns how to implement a productive offense or is replaced by someone who can.

(H/T to BasketballReference.com and 82games.com for stats. Also, Kelly Dwyer was ahead of the curve with this one.)

*Offensive Efficiency is a measure of points scored per possession, while defensive efficiency measures points allowed per possession. The efficiency statistics take pace into account, while per game numbers do not.

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Victim of Their Own Success

Monday, February 9, 2009

The Pistons may be a victim of their own success. For all the talk about coaching and chemistry, talent is the biggest determinant of success. Teams with a superstar – or better yet, multiple superstars – have a major step up on the competition.

The problem for the Pistons is that most superstars are claimed at the top of the draft. Three of the NBA’s top-five teams – the Magic, Spurs, and Cavaliers – are built around players who they drafted first overall. Among the eight NBA teams with at least 31 wins this season, five have a player whom they selected with the top pick. Among the top-26 NBA players in PER, nearly all of them were high drafts picks.



Of the 26 players leading the NBA in PER, only nine were selected later than sixth in the draft. Of those nine players, four are foreign players, three of whom (Nowitzki, Parker, and Ginobili) were drafted at a time when NBA teams were generally undervaluing foreign prospects.

Among those 26 players, 17 are still with their original teams. Two others (Garnett, Jefferson) are only no longer with their original teams because they were traded for each other. O’Neal and Boozer both used free agency to leave teams that would have preferred to keep them. That leaves Pau Gasol and Devin Harris as the only members of the league’s top-21 players, based on PER, who were traded away in a deal that did not net another top-21 player. Not surprisingly, there was outrage over the Gasol deal, while the Harris deal was a miscalculation by Dallas.

In order to nab a star, a team’s best bet is to lose enough games to earn a high lottery pick. Occasionally a team can strike gold with a later pick; however the odds of succeeding in that regard are poor. There are alternative methods to building a contender – such as developing castoffs like Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace into stars – but this tactic fails far more often than not. Of the past 25 NBA Champions, the best player on every single one of those teams was a player drafted in the top-5 (Bird, Magic, Isiah, Jordan, Olajuwon, Duncan, O’Neal, Billups, Wade, and Garnett).

As a result of the Pistons’ recent success, they have been drafting in the wrong half of the first round far too often to find a superstar. They were handed a gift from the basketball gods when a 1997 trade gave the Pistons the second overall pick in the 2003 draft; however Joe Dumars made a rare blunder and botched the opportunity by selecting Darko Milicic. The Milicic pick was the only top-14 pick the Pistons have had in the past seven drafts.

The trade for Allen Iverson will be worth every loss if Dumars is able to use the resulting cap flexibility to land a superstar. If not, the Pistons will likely have to enter the league’s basement if they ever hope to return to its penthouse.

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RIP Rollin'

Sunday, February 8, 2009

When asked to assess how RIP Hamilton has performed as a reserve, team president Joe Dumars said: “I think RIP has handled this exceptionally well.” Has he ever. As a reserve, Hamilton has essentially matched his averages as a starter despite playing far fewer minutes. Hamilton has thrived as the leader of the second unit, in part because he has the green light to be much more aggressive.


Hamilton’s point per minute and assist per minute numbers have both been substantially better as a reserve. When the Pistons played small ball, Hamilton began halves on the floor at the same time as Rodney Stuckey, Allen Iverson, and Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace; this put the Pistons’ top five offensive players on the court simultaneously. With only one ball to go around, there were not enough shot opportunities to fully utilize the skills of all five players. With Hamilton in a reserve role, he has typically been on the court with one to three of the aforementioned players. As a result, he has had his number called far more frequently while in the game.

While Hamilton is no longer starting games or playing as many minutes, he is finishing games and attempting just as many shots per game as he had previously. Manu Ginobili, Jason Terry, and J.R. Smith are among the perimeter players with starter talent who have excelled as high-scoring backups. Hamilton appears to be well on his way to earning that description.

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Trade Season

Friday, February 6, 2009

Trade rumor season is in full force. With the trade deadline less than two weeks away, teams must determine a course of action for the remainder of the season. Some teams are looking for the piece that could potentially put them over the top; others are looking to clear salary, while a few simply want to clean up chemistry problems.

The Pistons should be trying to acquire young talent so long as they avoid doing too much harm to their impending salary cap flexibility. Rodney Stuckey is probably the only untouchable on the roster, but it’s hard to imagine that Joe Dumars would deal Tayshaun Prince. Also, after the financial sacrifice Antonio McDyess made to return to the Pistons, there is no way Dumars would trade McDyess unless the veteran requests a move. With that in mind, I went to work with
ESPN’s Trade Machine.

Trade Idea #1: Pistons trade Rasheed Wallace, Amir Johnson, Arron Afflalo, and Will Bynum to Phoenix for Amar’e Stoudemire and Goran Dragic.

The Pistons could do their 2010 shopping early, although they would be forced to pay a steep price. Stoudemire has ruffled feathers in Phoenix with his lackadaisical defense and poor rebounding. Word out of Phoenix is that he is unhappy with Terry Porter and does not like the idea that Shaquille O’Neal is the focal point of the offense. The Pistons would be making a serious gamble by giving up two of its young assets to acquire the mercurial Stoudemire, but they would have a better chance to contend for the next two seasons and if things do not work out, they would actually be in even better position for the summer of 2010.

From Phoenix’s standpoint, this deal makes a lot of sense if they determine that the Nash-Stoudemire-O’Neal tandem is hopeless. Wallace is a better than Stoudemire alongside O’Neal because of his defense and long-range shooting. Phoenix injects some youth into a franchise that could otherwise be dreadful after 2010. Lastly, Bynum would upgrade the backup point guard position while ridding the Suns of Dragic’s three-year deal.

Trade Idea #2: Pistons trade Allen Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, Amir Johnson, and Arron Afflalo to Toronto for Chris Bosh, Jermaine O’Neal, and Joey Graham.

The Raptors are in serious trouble of entering the league’s basement for the first half of the next decade. O’Neal has not provided the defensive lift many had hoped for and the Raptors have taken a step back this season. The team is also short on assets and young talent. Chris Bosh has to be salivating at the prospect of getting out of this mess. If the Raptors do not trade him, he might do just that in 2010. By making this trade, the Raptors would clear O’Neal’s contract off the books a year early, add two young pieces, and get a head start on re-building.

From this Pistons’ standpoint, this might be the only plausible deal that could move them back into contention for this season. The Pistons would make a run at a title in 2009 and 2010 with a starting lineup of Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Bosh and O’Neal backed up by Bynum, Graham, Maxiell and McDyess. After the 2010 season, O’Neal’s massive contract would come off the books while Bosh would become a free agent. The Pistons would probably want to re-sign Bosh, but if that plans fails, they would have plenty of cap space to work with.

Trade Idea #3: Pistons trade Tayshaun Prince, Jason Maxiell, and Walter Herrmann to Toronto for Chris Bosh.

Again, the Raptors only consider this deal if they are convinced they are going to lose Bosh in 2010. They would add two players to build around in Prince and Maxiell, both of whom are under contract into the next decade.

The Pistons would add the superstar big man they have craved while making room in the starting lineup for Hamilton. Losing Prince would hurt, but adding a superstar like Bosh would clearly come at a price. At the end of this season, the Pistons would have a core of Stuckey, Hamilton, and Bosh plus a ton of available cap room.

Trade Idea #4a: Pistons trade Rasheed Wallace to Houston for Ron Artest, Carl Landry, and Luther Head.

The Pistons would not have much interest in Artest, but he has an expiring contract which they could either flip or buy out. The other option would be to send Artest somewhere as part of a three way trade (Trade Possibility #4b). Even if the Pistons limit the deal to two teams, they would acquire a nice young piece in Landry without doing too much damage to their salary cap flexibility.

The Rockets have a glut on the wings with McGrady, Artest, and Battier. Using Artest to upgrade the power forward position would enhance their chances of making an extended playoff run this spring.

Trade Possibility #5.

I like this deal because the Pistons improve their core without losing Stuckey, Afflalo, Prince, or Johnson. (If I’m making up crazy trades with the trade machine, I have the right to dream, right?)

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21 Reasons to Hope

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

The Pistons are an uninspiring 21-21 since the arrival of Allen Iverson. With pessimism spreading through Piston Nation, it’s time to run through the 21 reasons for Piston fans to be optimistic.

1. Rodney Stuckey. Stuckey is already a very good player, but he is on the fast track to stardom. The second year guard plays like a poor man’s cross between Dwyane Wade and Chauncey Billups. At the rate he’s progressing, “poor man’s” might be taken out of the analogy soon.

2. Draft Pick. The Pistons are playing just poorly enough that they might end up with a decent draft pick. When Dumars has drafted between picks 15 and 27, he has landed Tayshaun Prince, Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, and Arron Afflalo. The only pick in that range he would like to have back was the Carlos Delfino pick of 2003. This season, the Pistons will likely end up drafting in the late teens.

3. Reduced Wear and Tear. The Piston veterans have experienced grueling playoff runs each of the past seven seasons. An extended summer vacation may help revitalize them for future seasons.

4. April Will Matter. For the first since 2003, the Pistons might actually play April games that impact their playoff position. Only once since 2003 has an Eastern conference team finished fewer than five games away from the Pistons in the standings. The exception was 2007, when the Pistons finished three games ahead of the Cavaliers.

5. Joe Dumars. In Joe We (Should) Trust. He has been phenomenal as the general manager in Detroit. Even when he has made a mistake, he has been quick to compensate with a brilliant maneuver. If anyone can fix this mess, it is Dumars.

6. Iverson’s Days are Numbered. All-Star Allen Iverson has said he plans to test the free agent market this summer. That seems like a good idea, since the Pistons surely will not want to retain him. Aside from the possibility of addition by subtraction, this seems like a perfect opportunity for Bill Simmons’ “Ewing Theory” to strike.

7. Cap Space. When Iverson leaves, cap space will arrive. The last three times Dumars made serious plays in free agency, he landed Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess, and Nazr Mohammad. Two for three is a light years better than most organizations perform with free agent money.

8. Experimenting. Michael Curry has changed starting lineups and rotations more times than I’d care to remember. While that may have had disastrous effects on the team’s performance thus far, logic suggests that if he continues to test new ideas, eventually something should work. Maybe he should try benching Iverson.

9. Jason Maxiell. The “Baby Eater” is under contract through 2013. That gives him plenty of time to consume babies and do things like this.

10. No Losing in the Conference Finals. This is far from a given, but it looks like the Pistons streak of ending their season with a game-six loss in the conference finals will end at three. The preseason goal was to end the streak via improvement; however the Pistons appear to be taking a different approach.

11. Underdog Status. The Pistons of old relished the underdog mentality. They used perceived disrespect as a motivational tool. The Pistons have now regained underdog status. Step two is regaining underdog intensity.

12. Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons’ iron man has been one of the elite small forwards in the NBA for the last six seasons and has shown no signs of slowing down.

13. No More Flipping the Switch. For years – specifically the last two – there was talk the Pistons would flip a proverbial switch and play hard only when motivated. The current incarnation of the Piston is not good enough to earn such reports.

14. The Coaching Can Only Improve. As far as coaching goes, it is difficult to imagine the Pistons could possibly employ someone who performs worse than Curry has so far. Curry will have to improve or he will be fired, either of which would be progress.

15. Kwame’s Out. Michael Curry recently made it clear – through words and actions – that Kwame Brown will be spending the majority of games glued to the bench. Brown appears to finally be in a role that suits his talents: fifth big man on a team that typically plays four.

16. Longer Summer. The Pistons have kept their fans busy throughout May and often into June for the past six seasons. This summer, Piston fans should have much more time to enjoy the sun.

17. Arron Afflao. “Aflac” is a keeper who should play a much bigger role next season, when fellow shooting guard Allen Iverson departs. Afflalo’s defense and outside shooting would be valuable on any team.

18. No More Arrogance. The media has been annoyed with a perceived arrogance from the Pistons in recent seasons. One way to cure arrogance is to stop winning. In that sense, the Pistons appear to be fixing one of their character flaws.

19. No More Flip. At least before the season, less Flip Saunders seemed like a good thing.

20. Fun Gossip. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey has chosen to chronicle the Pistons’ struggles like a soap opera. Over the past two weeks, he has written articles – which may or may not be factual – about Dumars trying to trade Prince, dead team spirits, players lacking confidence, and a team that has little respect or trust in its coach. His sources are anonymous and his credibility is waning, but there is some entertainment value.

21. Amir Johnson. The 21st reason for Pistons fans to be optimistic is the continued development of one of basketball’s most talented 21-year olds. The young forward is already a game charger on the glass and with his defense. There are questions about his offense, but with time and opportunity, he might be better on that end than some anticipate.

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Out of Focus

Monday, February 2, 2009

A big part of the reason Michael Curry elected to bench RIP Hamilton instead of Allen Iverson was that he needed to pair Hamilton with Will Bynum off the bench. Bynum worked to learn Hamilton’s tendencies and was beginning to develop chemistry with the three-time All-Star. Also, Bynum and Iverson are too small to play together, so Curry could not afford to play both with the second unit.

Curry has recently taken Bynum out of the rotation – Bynum has played just one minute total during the past four games. Now that Bynum is essentially out of the mix, Curry needs to re-consider his starting lineup. I explained here and here why RIP should be starting over Iverson. Iverson demonstrated with pitiful defense (explained here), poor shot selection (explained here), and poor results (evidence here), that he should not be starting. Michael Rosenberg did an outstanding job of explaining this very issue in today's Detroit Free Press.

Iverson, on the other hands, told the Detroit Free Press he wants to be an even bigger part of the Pistons’ offensive attack.

"I would love to be a focal part on the offensive end," [Iverson] said. "That's where I've been all my career. And that's why I play the game. That's the type of competitor I am. In crucial situations, I want the ball in my hands. But like I've been saying all along: The calls they make, I trust my teammates and the coaching staff to be able to get us over the hump."

It’s a good thing Iverson isn’t coaching. He was the “focal part” of the offense for ten full seasons in Philadelphia. From 1997 until 2006, the 76ers were 21st, 21st, 23rd, 25th, 13th, 23rd, 11th, 26th, 24th and 15th, by season, in offensive efficiency*. In total, the Iverson-led 76ers were in the bottom third of the NBA in offensive efficiency seven times, but did not finish in the top third once**. The Pistons are currently 23rd in offensive efficiency. They had finished amongst the top-six teams in offensive efficiency each of the previous three seasons. The Pistons would be well-served to take Iverson’s advice and do the exact opposite.

*Offensive efficiency is a measure of points scored per possession.
**There were 29 teams during the first seven seasons (through 2003) and 30 during the final three.

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Welcome to Count That Baby And A Foul. I am an obsessed Piston fan with a passion for sports journalism. Here at CTBAAF, I intend to offer opinions on the Pistons and the NBA as a whole.

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