A Hall of Fame Backup?

The end of small ball seems imminent. The Pistons have played their best basketball in weeks during their past two games, in large part because an injury to RIP Hamilton forced the team to use a traditional lineup.

Michael Curry has noticed that the Pistons play significantly better defense with two big men on the floor. After yesterday’s game, Curry talked about how much better Rasheed Wallace plays when he has a second big man on the floor. Tayshaun Prince believes that both he and RIP Hamilton have suffered unnecessary wear and tear when they have to defend bigger players. It is obvious to coaches, players, and fans that the Pistons play their best defense with bigger lineups on the court. Curry hinted that a return to a more traditional lineup may be on the way. It appears that Amir Johnson will get the nod at power forward. Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, and Wallace all have secure spots in the starting lineup. The question is which of the Pistons’ all star shooting guards will be sent to the bench.

In a vacuum, the answer would probably be Hamilton. Allen Iverson is better at creating his own shot and is a future hall of famer still capable of huge scoring nights. However, when other factors are taken into consideration, it makes sense to start Hamilton.

The Pistons have plenty of scoring with their starting unit regardless of who starts at off guard. Stuckey, Prince, and Wallace are all quality offensive players who need the ball to be as effective as possible. Iverson’s game is predicated on dominating the ball and attacking defenses on his own. That style of play does not mesh well with players like Stuckey and Prince, but would be perfect alongside backups like Arron Afflalo, Jason Maxiell, and Antonio McDyess. Those three players can make open jumpers, but struggle to create their own offense.

Hamilton, on the other hand, is quickly developing chemistry with Stuckey. Hamilton averages almost four more points per game in games that Stuckey starts at point guard. RIP gets most of his shots within the flow of the offense and has succeeded alongside Prince and Wallace for years. Stuckey and Johnson would essentially fill the roles once held by Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace so the starting unit’s offense should be fairly similar to what the Pistons had earlier in the decade.

Defensively, if the Pistons were to start Stuckey and Iverson, they would be at a size mismatch at both guard positions. Iverson is undersized against almost anyone, while Stuckey would be playing out of position if asked to guard shooting guards. With Hamilton on the court alongside Stuckey, that problem would be solved.

When the Pistons replaced Amir Johnson with Kwame Brown in the starting lineup, part of Michael Curry’s motivation was the need to get bigger after they downsized from Billups to Iverson. If the Pistons go back to Johnson, it would only make sense to compensate by starting a big backcourt in Stuckey and Hamilton.

Another consideration is the future of this franchise. Iverson is probably a one year rental for the Pistons. Hamilton recently signed a contract extension and will be a big part of the team’s future assuming that he is not traded. If the Pistons falter in this season’s playoffs, whichever all start is coming off the bench will probably be an unhappy camper. Star players usually only accept lesser roles when a team is winning (see Owens, Terrell). A peeved Iverson can look for a new team next summer, but an alienated Hamilton is a problem the Pistons should try to avoid.

It is not quite a done deal that the Pistons will revert to a more traditional lineup, but the evidence is promising. Sending the team’s only surefire future Hall of Famer to the bench is best way for the Pistons to regain their status as contenders in the East.

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RIP Assists from the Trainer’s Room

The Pistons may have caught the best injury break of the season yesterday. A groin injury forced RIP Hamilton out of the lineup and allowed Amir Johnson to start in his place. While Hamilton’s injury is not considered serious, the ramifications could have a huge positive impact on the Piston’s season.

In yesterday’s post, I argued that reverting to a more traditional lineup would be beneficial for the Pistons. The case for a more traditional lineup centered on the improved rebounding and defense that a bigger lineup would provide.

In the eight games that the Pistons played small ball, they were outrebounded by an average of 5.6 rebounds per game. Last night, with Johnson starting, the Pistons won the board war by nine. The Pistons also played one of their best defensive games of the season, allowing the Bucks to score just 76 points on 30.4% shooting.

Milwaukee has a solid team and the Bucks were favored in last night’s contest. Thanks in large part to Johnson, the Pistons had a victory locked up by the end of the third quarter. Johnson had 11 rebounds – including 5 on the offensive end – and blocked four shots on the night.

Based on the way that Johnson has played in the last two games, Michael Curry has no choice but to drastically increase Johnson’s minutes. If Hamilton’s injury forced Curry to realize the value of a player like Amir Johnson, it may very well have been a blessing in disguise.

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Small Ball Leads to Bad Basketball

Eight games ago, the Pistons brought Antonio McDyess back onto the roster. McDyess essentially replaced Kwame Brown in the rotation and has provided a huge upgrade. Despite the improvement of the team’s second big man, the Pistons have not played any better in the last eight games than they did earlier in the season. The Pistons are 5-3 in that stretch, but only one win was by more than six points and the team played an extremely soft schedule.

There are other reasons the Pistons should have played well during that stretch. The team is more than a month into the alleged transition to life with Allen Iverson. Also, Rodney Stuckey has played the best basketball of his career recently. Despite all of the factors working in the Pistons’ favor, the team has continued to play mediocre basketball.

The culprit is a simple one: small ball. On the same day that McDyess returned to the team, Michael Curry altered the starting lineup to include Rodney Stuckey in place of a big man. While Stuckey has excelled as a starter, the team has struggled overall. The small ball arrangement has caused numerous problems for the Pistons, almost all of which could be fixed by reverting to a traditional lineup.

The biggest challenge facing the Pistons is rebounding. The Pistons have been outrebounded in every single game that they have used the small ball lineup. They have been outrebounded by an average of 5.6 rebounds per game during the eight-game stretch. Tayshaun Prince has done his part, grabbing 8.6 boards a game since moving to power forward. The problems arise with the rest of the frontcourt. RIP Hamilton has grabbed three rebounds per game over the last eight games. That production was fine when he played shooting guard, but will not cut it at forward. Rasheed Wallace inexplicably stopped rebounding after Thanksgiving. He averaged 9.5 rebounds per game in the team’s first 13 games, but has pulled down just 5.4 boards per game in the 14 game since the holiday.

The Pistons were a fairly average rebounding team before the switch to small ball. Extrapolated over a full season, their rebounding performance over the past eight games would place them amongst the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. The switch to small ball transformed the Pistons from a decent rebounding team into a horrible one.

Another mess created by small ball has occurred on the defensive end. With the current starting lineup, the Pistons face size mismatches at various positions against virtually every team in the league. Prince is not big enough to guard most power forwards. Against Utah, Prince was abused in the post by Mehmet Okur. Hamilton faces similar problems when the team plays bigger small forwards such as Danny Granger, who dropped 42 points against Detroit. The Pistons have enough defensive issues when Iverson tries to guard anyone. The last thing Michael Curry needed to do was compound the problem by playing three starters out of position.

The other major dilemma posed by small ball is the distribution of minutes. The Pistons cannot start Prince at power forward if they hope to play Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson significant minutes. Maxiell and Johnson are the team’s only talented young big men. Both are quality NBA players now and are a major part of the team’s future. Curry is doing a major disservice to the franchise if he squeezes either of those players out of the rotation.

Johnson did not play in six of the first seven games of the small ball era. Last night, he checked into the game late in the third quarter last night, with the Pistons trailing by one. Johnson immediately started contesting shots and crashing the boards. His energy helped trigger a 24-9 run. Iverson was exceptional during the stretch and was able to be aggressive because he played alongside Johnson and Afflalo, players who defend, hustle, and do not need the ball to contribute. Curry left the lineup in the game even after it appeared to run out of gas and the results were not pretty. However, it was obvious from that sequence that Amir Johnson needs to play and that his game complements Iverson’s.

In a way, Michael Curry’s hand has been forced by the make-up of his roster. With Iverson, Hamilton, and Prince, the Pistons have three all-star talents for two positions on the wing. It is the coach’s responsibility to determine which of those players is best-suited for a bench role and then convince that player that an individual sacrifice will benefit the team. Ideally, the Pistons should bench Iverson in favor Johnson or Maxiell.

The Pistons are drifting through the regular season. They play well some nights, but poorly on far too many. Most NBA teams would love to have the talent that the Pistons boast. Those other teams would probably be wise enough to deploy that talent correctly.

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Fastbreak Buckets 12.24.08

-Two of the biggest differences between Flip Saunders and Michael Curry were supposed to be that Curry would play young players and Curry would stop his players from complaining to the officials. Two months into the Curry era, the results have been hit and miss, with more misses than hits.

Young guards Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo have been given plenty of minutes. Stuckey’s development has been the biggest success of Curry’s coaching career thus far. On the other hand, young bigs Jason Maxiell and especially Amir Johnson are not playing nearly enough. Johnson is racking up healthy DNPs despite posting an impressive PER and the best net +/- numbers of any Piston other than Rasheed Wallace.

Also, to date, Curry has failed in his attempt to stem the complaining to officials. Wallace and RIP Hamilton are picking up technicals at a manic rate. The Pistons are fifth in the NBA in technical fouls.

-The first step toward fixing a problem is realizing that one exists. Coach Curry appears to be headed in the right direction with both of the aforementioned issues. He told The Detroit News that he plans to pull Allen Iverson and Tayshaun Prince midway through the first quarter in favor of a bigger lineup. He then plans to re-insert Iverson and Prince as part of a bigger lineup to start the second quarter. The moves should allow Maxiell and Johnson to see minutes at power forward while Will Bynum would effectively be eliminated from the rotation. These move makes sense. In the same article, there is talk that the Pistons are trying to cut back on technical fouls.

-Stuckey tracker: In the 13 games since Thanksgiving, Stuckey is averaging 15.5 points, 7.0 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 2.0 turnovers per game. He has made 55.6% of his field goal attempts and nine three pointers for an effective field goal percentage of 58.7%. His PER is at 19.2 on the season and is surely in the mid 20s since Thanksgiving. The man can flat out ball.

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Fastbreak Buckets: 12.19.09

-Stuckey tracker: In the ten games since Thanksgiving, Stuckey is averaging 13.4 points, 7.9 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 2.1 turnovers per game. He is shooting 53% from the floor, and has made half of his 14 three point attempts. Stuckey has also played very solid defense for the Pistons. While he will probably never be an elite defender, he is an above average defensive point guard and still has room to improve.

One clear benefit of the Iverson trade was that it opened up the point guard role for Stuckey. In theory, this should expedite his development as he should get a full season’s worth of on the job training. On the flip side of that coin, Stuckey no longer has Billups as a tutor and the trade has resulted in a rotation that will squeeze Amir Johnson’s minutes.

There was a stretch during November where Stuckey was often the worst player on the court. He was pressing at times and appeared hesitant at others. He had a miserable time trying to stay in front of Devin Harris against New Jersey and then was set back by a pair of medical problems. He suffered a dizzy spell during a game against Boston and took a hard fall after a collision with Shaq in Phoenix. It is impossible to know how much of his struggles can be traced to those two instances, but there is a good chance they contributed.

For whatever reason, Stuckey turned a corner in his development three weeks ago and has not looked back yet. As a result of his recent strong play, Stuckey’s PER is up to 17.34, a hugely impressive number for a 22 year old who fell to the middle of the first round in 2007. Stuckey is not a star yet, but he appears to be well on his way.

-Pistons fans should not get any crazy ideas a result of the team’s three game win streak. The Pistons squeaked past a mediocre Indiana team at home, barely held on against a bad Charlotte team, and then beat a horrible Washington team at the Palace. None of the three victories were particularly impressive, although there were encouraging signs. Stuckey and Iverson both had their best weeks of the season, while RIP Hamilton played some of his better basketball since the trade. Antonio McDyess also played well and showed no ill effects from his five week hiatus. This weekend’s games against Utah and Atlanta should be a much better indicator of this team’s ability.

-In the four games since the Pistons switched to a small ball lineup, they have been outrebounded by an average of 7.8 rebounds per game. Poor rebounding is a recipe for disaster in the playoffs and the Pistons must find a way to correct this problem if they hope to advance in this season’s playoffs. Amir Johsnon leads the team in rebound rate* and last season finished behind only Nazr Mohammed, who is no longer on the roster. Johnson also finished with the team lead in 2007. He has not played in the last four games.

(*Rebound rate is the percentage of missed shots a player rebounds while on the court)

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Allen Iverson: Better Off the Ball

Allen Iverson put together his best stretch of the season this past week. The move from point guard to shooting guard has been a big reason for his success. Despite impressive assist numbers, Iverson does not belong at point guard. True point guards – such as Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul, and Steve Nash – excel at controlling the pace of the game, feeding a hot hand, and keeping their teammates involved in the offense. Those players consistently make good decisions on the court and possess the leadership skills necessary to lead a team.

For all of his gifts, Iverson has never shown the ability manage games. Iverson excels at making plays for others with his ability to break down defenses; however he thinks like a playmaker instead of a distributor.

Rodney Stuckey, on the other hand, has shown excellent game awareness since being inserted into the starting lineup. Stuckey has opened games by getting his teammates involved. Later in the game, when Stuckey’s teammates have found a rhythm, Stuckey begins to assert himself. He is averaging ten assists per game since he was named a starter. The Pistons’ point guard duties should be in good hands with Stuckey for the rest of this decade and most of the next one.

With Stuckey running the show, Iverson has been brilliant offensively. In the four games since Stuckey became a starter, Iverson is averaging 19.5 points and 5.5 assists per game with a 58.3% effective field goal percentage*. Iverson has been liberated from the burden of playing point guard and the early returns are positive.

*Effective field goal percentage is determined by (FG+0.5*3P)/FGA. It is a measure of field goal percentage that accounts for the additional point that results from a made three pointer.

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Dice On A Roll

The Pistons dodged a major bullet when Antonio McDyess elected to return to Detroit. McDyess claims that he understands the Pistons’ motivation for the trade and is not upset with Dumars, but Dice had to be slightly perturbed that the team considered him somewhat expendable. Dumars could not have been certain that McDyess would turn down teams like Boston and Cleveland that offered him more dollars and a better shot at a title. Dumars should be thankful he did.

While the Pistons surely have missed Billups since the trade, they missed McDyess nearly as much. During the 17 games the Pistons played without McDyess, he was essentially replaced in the rotation by Kwame Brown. The drop-off in production was drastic. Dice is superior to Brown in virtually every aspect of the game. He is a far better shooter and pick and roll defender. Dice also holds an edge over Brown in terms of rebounding, shot blocking, and finishing plays around the basket. The one area where Brown may have an edge is defending the league’s behemoths, but players like Shaq and Andrew Bynum are few and far between. Brown will likely be called up again when the Pistons face a team with a dominant post scorer. Until then, he should be rooted to the bench where he can try to learn a thing or two from watching McDyess.

Since returning to the team, Dice is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game while playing just over 23 minutes per night. He has made better than 59% of his field goal attempts and has made all five of his free throws. McDyess is a stabilizing force on the court and has been a reliable interior defender during his five seasons in Detroit. He is also the best rebounder in the Pistons rotation – Amir Johnson is the team’s best rebounder, but he has not seen the floor since McDyess’s return.

McDyess is not starting games this season – instead he is finishing them. McDyess has been on the court for the majority of the fourth quarter in each game since his return. It is nearly impossible to play sturdy defense with a small ball lineup and rebounding has also been a major issue for the small ball Pistons. Thanks to the return of McDyess, the Pistons no longer have those problems down the stretch. The Pistons crunch time front court includes McDyess, Rasheed Wallace, and Tayshaun Prince – all players who defend and rebound well at their positions. The combination is a big reason that the Pistons have been able to close out their last three opponents. If the Pistons are able to win 50 games for an eighth consecutive season, McDyess’s decision to return will be a big reason why.

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Transitioning Away From Greatness

The Pistons are a team in transition. At least that is what people are saying. Members of the media and people in the Pistons’ organization have spent the six weeks since the Iverson trade preaching about “adjustment periods” and “a team trying to find itself.” “We are trying to adjust,” Antonio McDyess told The Detroit News. "In the midst of [the coaching change], we end up making the trade for Allen [Iverson], so that's been another transition," Michael Curry told The Augusta Chronicle. "It's going to take time,” RIP Hamilton told The Detroit Free Press. "We're in transition right now," Joe Dumars told CBS. Allen Iverson also followed the company line, telling The Detroit News that “I know we're going [to be] in a better situation at the end of the season than we are now."

In recent years, several teams have made franchise-altering transactions and seen no ill effects of the alleged transition. The 2004 Pistons went 20-5 after Rasheed Wallace officially joined the team. They went on to win a championship. The Suns went 18-11 after remodeling their franchise with Shaquille O’Neal last season, even though that trade may have made them worse. The Lakers also made a big move in 2008, and won 14 of their first 16 games with Pau Gasol. The 2005 76ers were below .500 before adding Chris Webber, but went 17-11 after he joined the team. The Pistons’ counterpart in the Iverson deal – Denver – is 16-4 while dealing with their end of the change.

The chatter about “transitions” and “adjustments” fills newspapers, but it is not necessarily worthwhile. There are benefits associated with chemistry and familiarity, but those benefits are not nearly as drastic as the Pistons would make one believe. Basketball games are won and lost based on three very tangible components: offense, defense, and rebounding. When a team makes a move that improves it combined performance in those three areas, the “transition” and “adjustment period” are suddenly much less burdensome.

What matters for the Pistons are those three tangible aspects of basketball. Is Iverson an upgrade for the Pistons in terms of offense, defense, and/or rebounding? Rebounding is a non issue, as both players are guards who have posted almost identical rebounding rates over their careers. Defense is another issue. The drop-off from Billups to Iverson is monumental. Billups is one of the better defensive point guards in the league while Iverson is one of the worst. Iverson lacks the size and focus to be an adequate defender and the results are obvious on the court. The Pistons have fallen from fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency last season to 20th this season even though every prominent member of the rotation other than Billups is back.

Offensively, Billups has a 22.2 PER compared to Iverson’s 16.55. While PER does not tell the whole story, comparing team performance might help. The Pistons had the number one offense in the league after the two games that Billups played for Detroit, but the team has fallen to 13th with Iverson. They were in the top-six each of the past three seasons.

People have the perception that Allen Iverson is a star. While in his prime, Iverson was a legitimate superstar, at this point in his career he is merely a good role player. The current incarnation of Allen Iverson is eerily similar to a backup guard on his old team – the Philadelphia 76ers. In 2008, Lou Williams had a strong season as the sixth man for the Sixers. Despite his small stature – he is generously listed at 175 pounds – he posted impressive numbers as a scoring guard. On a per 40 minute basis, he averaged 19.8 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 2.7 turnovers, and shot 42.4% from the field. His PER was 16.8. This season, on the same per 40 minute basis, Iverson is averaging 18.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 3.1 turnovers, and shooting 41.5% from the field for a 16.55 PER. Both players are shooting guards in a point guard’s body, both are weak defensively despite a high rate of steals, and both are best-suited for a bench role. While Iverson has a reputation as a player vastly superior to Williams, the evidence suggests that the difference between the players is not nearly as pronounced.

The Pistons took a step back by trading their best player for a player formerly capable of being a team’s best player. They are no longer an elite team. Instead, they are merely a good one. While others talk about the Pistons adjusting to Iverson, maybe Iverson needs to adjust to the fact that he is no longer a star.

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Fastbreak Buckets 12.13.08

-During an interview on “The Stoney and Wojo Show” Thursday, Michael Curry explained that RIP is struggling to adjust to fewer shot attempts. (Listen here). Curry has also said that RIP needs to adjust to fewer minutes. Curry’s theories are interesting; unfortunately they are contradicted by facts.

Hamilton is actually playing slightly more minutes per game this season compared to last. As far as field goal attempts are concerned, RIP is shooting 0.3 fewer field goals per game, but is more than compensating with an extra 1.5 free throw attempts per game. RIP is clearly adjusting to life without Billups, but there is no need for Curry to contrive additional transitions.

-Rodney Stuckey made an eye-opening four three pointers against Indiana. He is blossoming as a starter and has improved greatly in just the past few weeks. Early this year he struggled to determine when he should look to score and when he should pass. The results were a low field goal percentage and a high rate of both turnovers and offensive fouls. Part of his early struggles can be attributed to the dizzy spell he suffered against Boston and the hard foul he took from Shaquille O’Neil a week later.

However, Stuckey turned a corner against a few weeks ago and has not looked back. Since Thanksgiving, Stuckey is averaging 12.9 points, 7.3 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.6 steals and just 2.1 turnovers, while playing 27.4 minutes per game. He has converted 52% of his field goals, including five for 11 from long range, during the eight-game stretch.

The two most encouraging aspects of Stuckey’s play have been his jump shot and his decision-making. Stuckey looks more confident and has been much more accurate on perimeter shots recently. The big question mark with Stuckey has always been his jumper. If he continues to knock down 18-footers along with the occasional three-ball, he can be a star. Stuckey also seems to be learning when to attack and when to set up his teammates.

-A longer post about small ball is on the way, but in the meantime, here are two small ball-related noted from the Pacer game:

1) Amir Johnson did not play against Indiana and Jason Maxiell was limited to 14 minutes. In those 14 minutes, Maxiell grabbed three offensive rebounds. The rest of the Pistons combined for two offensive rebounds the entire game. Johnson and Maxiell are fourth and sixth, respectively, among 318 qualified players in offensive rebound rate – the percentage of a team’s missed shots that a player rebounds while in the game.

2) I sent an E-Mail to Need4Sheed before yesterday’s game and made the following statement: “Here's hoping Curry is smart enough to abandon small ball before Granger lights up RIP.” Apparently the message was not relayed to Michael Curry, who elected to let RIP defend Granger most of the game. Granger responded with 42 points on just 21 shots.

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Off the High Glass: Arron Afflalo

“Off the High Glass” will be a segment on CTBAAF where I profile one of the Pistons. Today, Arron Afflalo goes under the microscope.

Joe Dumars selected Arron Afflalo out of UCLA with the 27^th pick in the 2007 draft. Coming out of college, Afflalo was touted as a scorer and a strong defender, but there were concerns about his athleticism. Afflalo has exceeded expectations defensively, but his relative lack of athleticism has manifested itself on offense. Even with the merely mediocre contributions offensively, the man Rasheed Wallace dubbed “Aflac” has played more than well enough to justify the first round selection.

Offense: Afflalo struggled offensively as a rookie. He was unable to find the shooting stroke that served him well as a Bruin. Afflalo finished the season with a 41.1% field goal percentage, including just 20.8% on three pointers. He lacks a quick first step or a deceptive crossover dribble and thus had very little success trying to penetrate defenses.

This season, Afflalo has rediscovered his jump shot. While he still has not shown the quickness to consistently maneuver past defenders, Afflalo has found an offensive niche as a spot-up shooter. He has made over half of his shots and more than doubled his three point field goal percentage. By knocking down open shots, Afflalo is forcing defenders to stay with him, thereby opening up the middle for players like Stuckey and Iverson.

Defense: “I have the potential to be great on defense,” Afflalo said in a recent interview. The assessment was spot on; there are stretches where he is brilliant defensively. However, there are also occasions where he is overly aggressive and winds up either out of position or committing a foul. Even with the occasional miscue, Afflalo has established himself as the best defensive guard on the Pistons. At 6’5, he can defend all shooting guards along with most point guards and small forwards.

In the Pistons two biggest road wins of the young season, Afflalo played excellent defense against a trio of Western conference stars. In Los Angeles, Afflalo entered the game with the score tied at 12. Kobe Bryant already had five points and had earned assists on two of the three baskets he did not score. Curry put Afflalo in the game to slow Bryant down and the California native delivered. The Lakers made more turnovers than field goals over the remainder of the quarter and the Pistons jumped out to a seven point. The lead did not dip below five after that point.

Against San Antonio, the results were similar. Afflalo entered the game with the Pistons trailing by two at the start of the fourth quarter. He and Rodney Stuckey took turns defending Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli. The pair of second year guards thwarted the Spurs’ attack by denying dribble penetration. During that stretch, the Pistons scored 15 points compared to seven for the Spurs. Once again, the lead that Afflalo helped build lasted the remainder of the game as the Pistons pulled off the upset.

Afflalo relies on preparation, lateral quickness, and toughness on defense. He knows each of his opponents’ strengths and does his best to take those away from the players he is guarding. He possesses above average lateral quickness and stays right in the face of his man. Afflalo is a hard-nosed player who refuses to surrender an inch. This occasionally leads to unnecessary fouls, but more often frustrates his opponents.

Overall: The Iverson trade and subsequent switch to small ball should reduce Afflalo’s minutes. Although he is a perfect fit for that style of play, the fact that the Pistons are playing Iverson almost exclusively at shooting guard creates a glut at the wing positions. Between Afflalo, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Hermann, there are not enough minutes to go around. As a result, Hermann will be forced to play out of position at power forward and Afflalo’s minutes will be squeezed. Even with the shortage of minutes, Afflalo will surely see the court if an opposing perimeter player is hurting the Pistons. The way Iverson plays defense, there should be plenty of those opportunities.

Afflalo still has room to grow, but is already one of the better perimeter defenders in the league. Offensively, Afflalo needs to find a way to get to the basket and also prove that his hot shooting this season is no fluke. For now, Afflalo is a very good backup. If he continues to improve – his work ethic is well-regarded – he has the potential to develop into a player similar to Bruce Bowen or Raja Bell. On a team that has struggled defensively this season, Afflalo has proven that he can be a part of the long term solution.

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Larry Brown Strikes (Out) Again

The Phoenix Suns and Charlotte Bobcats agreed to a five player deal that will send Jason Richardson, Jared Dudley, and a future second round pick to Phoenix in exchange for Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, and Sean Singletary. The deal is cover-your-eyes awful from the Bobcats perspective. In all likelihood, Larry Brown is up to his old tricks again. Brown has a reputation for complaining about his players and constantly requesting trades. Occasionally, his front office will give in and usually some other team benefits greatly. Brown has shown a preference for players who play hard as opposed to those who play well. This deal appears to be a perfect illustration.

From a financial perspective, the deal is basically a wash. The contracts values are roughly equal for this season and in 2010. Charlotte saves about seven and a half million dollars in 2011, but will have to shell out an additional nine million in 2012 as a result of the deal.

Although the dollars might match up, there is a major disparity in the talent changing hands. Richardson is a great secondary scoring option who should complement the Sun’s attack perfectly. Amare and Shaq draw constant double teams and when the Suns spread the floor with players like Richardson, Nash, Barbosa, and Barnes, they should be impossible to defend. Richardson is only 27 years old, so while his contract is clearly bloated, it is not nearly as bad as some others around the league. In Jared Dudley, the Suns acquire an intriguing young player who can help fill the void left by Diaw.

The players Phoenix sent out are not nearly as inspiring. Raja Bell had a nice four year stretch – beginning in Utah – where he was an excellent role player. In his prime, he was an elite defender who knocked down enough of his open jumpers to help space the floor on offense. His prime, however, is clearly behind him. Offensively, he has become nearly invisible on the floor. According to John Hollinger’s “usage rate,” Bell has used only 12% of Phoenix’s possession while he is on the floor this season. By contract, Richardson used nearly 24% of Bobcat possessions. Bell’s PER, which peaked at 12.94 in 2006 is on pace to decline for the third consecutive season and sits at a meager 9.27. Defensively, Bell has lost a step and in the process has regressed from an excellent defender to one who is merely good. He remains tough and competes hard every night, but when an undersized player loses his quickness, there is not much left. The Suns have actually allowed more points per possession with Bell on the court this season.

Boris Diaw had an excellent season for Phoenix in 2006, was rewarded with a massive six year contract, and has played like a solid backup ever since. He is an excellent passer and a reliable scorer when he is involved, but he seems to disappear for long stretches and is a poor rebounder for his size. In exchange for being a slightly below average NBA player, Diaw will be paid nine million dollars per season through 2012. Singletary and the future second round draft pick included in the deal are both relatively inconsequential.

Through this trade, Phoenix took a major step toward securing a playoff spot in a loaded Western conference that will likely have a very good team watching the playoffs from home. Charlotte, on the other hand, presumably took a major step toward appeasing curmudgeon Larry Brown. Their fans will not be nearly as pleased when they see the results.

(Note: Thanks to ESPN.com's John Hollinger and 82games.com for stats)

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The Change We Need

There is a lot to like about Michael Curry. He’s straightforward with the media and apparently the same way with his players. He is committed to rewarding strong play and does a decent job of making players earn their minutes. Curry does not over-substitute; he instead uses regular substitution patterns that usually make sense. He is also patient with his players and, as a result, is less hesitant that most coaches to play young players who might make mistakes, but deserve minutes based on their talent and production.

With that out of the way, it is time he earns his keep in this league. The Pistons have lost three consecutive games against teams that range from mediocre to horrible. Since the day Curry was hired, he has preached accountability. The most significant difference between Curry and Flip Saunders is that Curry is supposed to have the respect of his players. If he truly has complete command over his troops, he needs to force one of his stars to swallow his pride and accept a role off the bench.

At the time of the Iverson trade, Curry claimed he had no fear of handling Iverson. He also has stated that he will reward strong play and make decisions that put this team in a position to succeed. With Iverson starting in a small ball arrangement, his actions appear to contradict his words.

Iverson is one of the greatest scorers to ever play the game and is still one of the better scorers in the NBA. He is not, however, a good fit for the Piston’s starting lineup. Iverson excels on offense and struggles mightily on defense. With Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace entrenched in the starting lineup, the Pistons have plenty of scoring. On the other end of the court, Iverson’s lack of size and poor focus make him a liability. He has been regularly abused by opposing point guards since coming to Detroit. Also, the current arrangement forces the rest of the starting unit to play out of position and face a size mismatch on a routine basis.

The solution is a simple one, provided that Curry actually has authority over of his players. The Pistons need to start Amir Johnson instead of Iverson. This change would solve a number of problems currently plaguing the team. One major improvement would occur on defense, where Amir would help protect the paint, rebound, and allow each of the starters to return to defending players who play their position. The Pistons would no longer be undersized against most teams and their weakest defender would be off the court to start the game.

A second benefit of the switch would be a better distribution of shot opportunities. The Pistons two best scorers are Iverson and Hamilton. By playing the two at the same time they cut into each other’s shot attempts. Also, when the Pistons go to their second unit, neither of the team’s top scoring threats is in the game. While there should still be plenty of occasions where Iverson and Hamilton are on the floor together, the Pistons should try to minimize instances where both are out of the game.

An improved distribution of minutes would also result from the switch away from small ball. The fact that Johnson and Jason Maxiell did not play against Washington is inexcusable. Each player deserves at least 15 minutes per contest. By starting Johnson, his minutes would obviously increase. Iverson would likely see a slight drop in minutes, but he could still expect to play at least 30 minutes per game. As for Maxiell, Curry made a poor decision against Washington when he played Hermann at power forward while Maxiell sat in his warm-ups. Hermann has a sweet stroke from the perimeter and plays hard, but he is nowhere near the player that Maxiell is defensively or on the glass. Another advantage of the switch is that the Pistons could use Iverson and Afflalo as their backup guards, thus returning Will Bynum to his situational role. By reducing the minutes that Iverson, Hermann, and Bynum play, there should be plenty of opportunities for Maxiell and Johnson to see the court.

If the Pistons elect to start Johnson instead of Iverson, it would be easy for Curry to develop a stable nine man rotation. He would start Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Johnson, and Wallace, while Iverson, Afflalo, Maxiell, and McDyess would see the bulk of the minutes off the bench. Bynum, Hermann, and Kwame Brown would each be placed in specialist roles where they only play if match-ups, foul trouble, or poor play from other players dictate that they belong on the court. The aforementioned rotation would allow Iverson to take his shots alongside backups who do not need the ball, it would improve the team’s defense throughout the game, and it would be a step toward making sure that the Pistons no longer lose three consecutive games against weak competition.

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Fastbreak Buckets 12.08.08

“Fastbreak Buckets” will be an occasional feature on CTBAAF where I take a quick look at a few different topics.

-The return of Antonio McDyess could not have come at a better time. The Pistons are reeling and definitely need the outside shooting, interior defense, and passionate play that McDyess brings to the table. Also, Rasheed Wallace has played poorly recently and he appears to be wearing down. With McDyess back in the fold, the Pistons only need to play Wallace about 30 minutes per game, which should allow him to be more productive.

-The more Iverson struggles, the more convinced I am that Dumars actually made the trade as a strict salary dump in an effort to re-build. The Pistons scouts could not have possibly believed that Iverson is an upgrade over Billups. While I understand the desire to re-build after falling short of a championship for four straight seasons, trading the team’s best player – Billups – for salary cap relief was not the right move. Billups’ contract is reasonable and he is one of the 20 best players in the NBA. His strong play in Denver has only confirmed this.

-Michael Curry hinted that a change in the starting lineup is on the way. Many Pistons fans are clamoring for the team to start Stuckey over Iverson and in a strictly basketball sense, I agree with them. However, Iverson’s ego and a bench role are a potentially disastrous pairing. Ideally, I would love to see the Pistons show Iverson the advantages of the Jason Terry role. Terry is taking more shots per game than Iverson despite coming off the bench. If Iverson were to embrace a bench role, his shots per game could actually increase because he will spend more time on the floor with players like Afflalo and Maxiell who do not need the ball. The problem is that I doubt Iverson would embrace such a change. If Iverson needs to start, I think the starting lineup that makes the most sense is: Iverson, RIP, Tay, Amir, and Sheed.

-I fear that the lineup Curry will actually choose is: Stuckey, Iverson, RIP, Tay, and Sheed. This lineup would be punished inside and would struggle to rebound. Also, if Prince is eating up minutes at power forward, Maxiell and Amir Johnson would lose minutes. Johnson makes plays and good things tend to happen when he is on the court. I would hate to see his minutes cut in favor of a small ball approach.

Update: Shortly after posting this, I learned that the Pistons will use the small ball arrangement I argued against. I hope I am wrong, but I see major problems with that lineup's lack of size. Also, keep an eye on Amir Johnson's minutes, or lack thereof, in upcoming games. He should be playing about 20 minutes per night, but there is virtually no chance of this happening without an injury.

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A Two Step Path to Contention

Since I spent my last two posts criticizing Dumars for the Iverson trade, I think that it is only fair that I offer some solutions. Plus, nothing is more fun for the average sports fan than playing “armchair GM” and coming up with preposterous trades that have no chance of actually happening. Without further ado, here is the moderately realistic plan that I propose to get the Pistons back into contention.

Step 1: Trade Tayshaun. Tayshaun Prince is probably the best and most valuable player on the Pistons. He has no real weakness compared to plenty of strengths and he always plays smart. He is a very good defender, a good long range shooter, a solid post up offensive player, and on broken plays he excels at shooting mid-range jumpers over defenders as the shot clock winds down on. Prince is a borderline all-star in his prime who, as a 28 year old with a reasonable contract, has significant trade value. It might be time for the Pistons to cash in.

When Larry Brown and Flip Saunders ran the show in Detroit, the Pistons almost exclusively used a set half court offense that relied upon timing and execution. Chauncey Billups would walk the ball up the court, the Pistons would run a play that used most of the shot clock and more often than not, the end result was a high percentage shot. Prince’s game has also been very methodical and under control. The slow, execution-based offenses were perfectly suited for his game.

Michael Curry emphasizes a very different approach to offense. Instead of asking his players to walk the ball up the court and set up a play, Curry implores his team to attack quickly. Under Curry, the Pistons are more of a fast break team that tries to take advantage of defenses that have not had time to set up entirely. This style does not suit Prince’s game and many times this season, Prince has slowed down the offense in order to get into a set reminiscent of the offenses of old. If the Pistons are to embrace Michael Curry’s ideals, Prince may have to go.

Here are three possibilities for trading Prince, listed in order of how desirable I consider each deal for the Pistons.

Trade Possibility A: Tayshaun Prince to Philadelphia for Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, Willie Green, and Jason Smith. (Trade Machine View)

Last season, the 76ers surprised pundits by making the playoffs with an inexperienced team. Over the summer, the team added Elton Brand in an attempt to solidify their defense and rebounding, while giving them a reliable offensive option in half court sets. So far, Brand is struggling to mesh with the up-tempo athletes that dominate Philly’s rotation. By swapping Young for Prince, the 76ers would add a second reliable offensive option as well as a lockdown defender who could potentially make Philly one of the elite defensive teams in the league. Prince is a much better fit alongside Brand than Young, and along with Miller and Dalembert, the 76ers would have a team much better suited to excel in the half court on both ends of the floor. By making this trade, the 76ers would be either the third or fourth best team in the East, depending on what one thinks of the Magic.

As for the Pistons, Thaddeus Young would be a perfect fit in Michael Curry’s system. The Piston lineup that has screamed “Michael Curry basketball” has included Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, RIP Hamilton, Jason Maxiell, and Amir Johnson. When those five players are on the court together, they pressure the ball, trap aggressively, and create fast break opportunities on offense. Young is a perfect fit for that style of basketball.

He is a natural small forward who is quickly developing an outside shot, but excelled in last season’s playoffs by making hustle plays and attacking the offensive glass. He is also capable of playing power forward, a position where Curry surely would utilize him in small ball lineups.

Marreese Speights is talented rookie big man whose bulk would allow him to complement either the skinny Amir Johnson or the undersized Jason Maxiell in the frontcourt. Willie Green would be able to return to Detroit, where he grew up, although he has proven to be a marginal player with an unfriendly long term contract that the Sixers would love to dump. Jason Smith showed promise as a rookie, but his career has been derailed by a devastating knee injury. He would be included in the deal strictly for salary cap reasons. If the Pistons struggle this season and Young continues to develop, Speights may need to be taken out of the trade in order for Philadelphia to accept.

Trade Possibility B: Tayshaun Prince to the Lakers for Trevor Ariza, Jordan Farmar, Chris Mihm, and a spare part signed for 1.05 million TBD. (Trade Machine View)

The Lakers would add another star to their already impressive starting lineup. The Lakers, Celtics, and Cavaliers are the three elite teams in the NBA this season and this trade would be just what the Lakers need to push themselves ahead of the class. A seven man core of Fisher, Bryant, Prince, Gasol, Bynum, Vujacic, and Odom would be as good as any the NBA has seen in a long time. While the Lakers are enamored with Farmar and Ariza, the opportunity to replace Radmanovic with Prince in the starting lineup should be too enticing to pass up.

Detroit would add two players who fit Michael Curry’s system perfectly. Ariza is the type of aggressive athlete Curry covets and – with the exception of the three point shot – would provide many of the same skills as Young. Farmar would be a perfect backup to Stuckey at point guard and the two could also play together. Mihm is merely being included for salary cap reasons.

Trade Possibility C: Tayshaun Prince to Utah for CJ Miles, Ronnie Price, Kosta Koufos, and Matt Harpring. (Trade Machine View)

I’m not certain if that deal can work as presently constructed due to Miles’ base year compensation status, but spare parts can be included if needed. The deal makes obvious sense for Utah. They have been looking for a star player to man one of the wing positions for years and Prince would fit the bill. He would essentially take up the minutes that Miles and Harpring combine to play and would provide a major upgrade for the Jazz. Brevin Knight is more than capable of taking over backup point guard duties from Price, while Koufos is a project that Utah can afford to sacrifice.

On the Pistons side of the things, this deal would bolster the team’s depth at the expense of its star power. Miles had a breakout season last year and has been ever better this season. He is a solid all around player at small forward and should develop into an above average starter. Price is a serviceable backup point guard, which is a position the Pistons will need to fill after Iverson is let go and Stuckey moves into the starting unit. Price and Miles do not add up to fair value for Prince, so including Koufos would be a must if Dumars is to accept. Harping has been a very good role player throughout the decade, but with Prince, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver and Andrei Kirilenko manning the wings, Utah would have little need for his tough play. His contract needs to be included for the contracts to match up.

Step 2: Be patient and only sign players (such as Rasheed or any available free agents) to one year deals in the summer of 2009. Then, in the summer of 2010, hope that either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire can be convinced to take Bill Davidson’s money.

If the Pistons simply made the one of the above trades and did nothing else, their roster entering the 2010 season would look something like this:

PG: Rodney Stuckey, Jordan Farmar/Ronnie Price/Will Bynum?
SG: RIP Hamilton, Arron Afflalo
SF: T. Young/T. Ariza/CJ Miles, W. Sharpe
PF: Amir Johnson, J. Maxiell
C: _______, M. Speights/K. Koufos/K. Brown?

By making the moves suggested above, the Pistons would have plenty of available cap space for the summer of 2010, some of which will be needed to re-sign Amir Johnson. The only way to complete that roster would be to add a stud at center. The Pistons would have the flexibility to offer a maximum contract and there are plenty of stars who will be on the market that summer. The two that make the most sense for the Pistons are Amare Stoudemire and Chris Bosh. Each of their teams could be in terrible shape entering that summer and if they want to win, there are plenty of reasons that the two young stars should consider Detroit.

In Stoudemire’s case, the appeal is obvious. Phoenix could be a disaster zone 18 months from now. Shaq, Grant Hil, and Raja Bell will be done, Steve Nash will be a free agent nearing the end of his career, and Nash and Stoudemire are the only players on the current roster who should be starting in the NBA in 2011. If Stoudemire wants to compete for a Championship, he will want to get out of Phoenix. In Detroit, he would be the focal point of the offense – which he very clearly desires – and his ability to attack the basket would fit perfectly with Michael Curry’s approach. However, because of his shortcomings on defense, he is not the best case scenario signee for the Pistons.

Chris Bosh is just as lethal as Amare offensively, except he also brings his A-game on the defensive end of the floor. Bosh is already one of the ten best players in the NBA and he still has room to grow. There is a good chance that he will try to join forces with LeBron, either in Cleveland or with one of the New York teams, but if not, the Pistons would love to have him.

By following that plan, the Pistons could quickly re-emerge as contenders – a status they lost when they dealt Billups.

(Note: Anyone who has read my previous posts is probably wondering how I can write that the Pistons’ chances of landing Bosh or Amare are slim and then advocate a plan based on getting one of those players. I stand by my belief that the team’s chances of landing one of the stars is less than 50-50 and I do not think it was wise of Dumars to trade Billups – an elite point guard – for cap space that may or may not help land a start two years down the road. With that said, the Pistons absolutely need a replacement for Rasheed in the frontcourt and Kwame Brown is not the answer. The Pistons have no internal options and are unlikely to find such a player late in the draft, so the best they can do is hope to lure a star free agent.)

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