Pistons at Cavaliers, 3.31.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (36-37) at Cleveland Cavaliers (60-13)
Spread: Cavs -10
My Pick: Cavs by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. All Hands on Deck? If Rasheed Wallace can play (he’s questionable) the Pistons will have both a healthy roster and a logical starting lineup for the first time since Chauncey Billups suited up in the red, white, and blue. (And yes, this means I am strongly opposed to this idea from Chris McCosky. More on that later.) Update: Sheed is back, but will come off the bench for now.
2. Small Guards. Both of the Pistons’ primary backcourt backups – Allen Iverson and Will Bynum – are shorter than six feet. Against most opponents, that would be a problem, but Cleveland’s top-three backcourt options are all 6-3 and under.
3. They’ve Done It. The Pistons beat Cleveland earlier this year in one of Allen Iverson’s best games of the seasons. They had a chance to do so a second time before Iverson chose not to play defense in the fourth quarter.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. King James. Cleveland has this LeBron guy who plays small forward and is really good at basketball. He happens to have the most absurd combination of size, quickness, skill, and athleticism that the NBA has ever seen. He might pose a problem for the Pistons.
2. Quicken Loans. The Cavs are 34-1 at home this season. That 97.1% winning percentage is as daunting as it gets.
3. Confused Curry. Michael Curry has done a much better job coaching when injuries force his hand. When he has had a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal, he has made some perplexing decisions.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 73, Cleveland 79
Notes:

• Is there anyone not excited to see the post-Iverson, post-Sheed Pistons? This team plays much harder without Sheed and much better without AI. The challenge will be using the cap space to replace their talent.
• Iverson whined to the media about the fact that he played 18 minutes. I agree that 18 minutes was a mistake; 12 – or maybe zero – would have been more appropriate.
• LeBron was the beneficiary of some "stupid-star calls," but Sheed gets his share of calls too. Sheed is bright enough to know that yelling at the refs does not accomplish anything productive. He deserves his suspension for tonight’s game.
• No Piston played more than 34 minutes. Normally I would applaud a coach for resting his regulars before the playoffs, but a playoff berth is far from secured.
• The Pistons executed a great game plan on LeBron for 43 minutes. Then LeBron showed why he is the best closer in basketball.
• Walter Herrmann was surprisingly competent the few possessions he defended LeBron.
• While my post-game gripes lie with AI and Sheed, the Pistons lost because the Cavaliers played awesome defense in the second half. Also, Stuckey, RIP, and McDyess failed to convert too many makeable shots.

Read more...

Defending Amir's Defense

The Pistons have two talented young power forwards in Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson. Both are high-energy players who excel at offensive rebounding, shot blocking, and finishing around the basket. While neither player has well-polished skills, they make up for their shortcomings by playing with boundless energy.

Maxiell does many things better than his younger counterpart. Maxiell makes better decisions defending the pick and roll, is a stronger post defender, has a more polished post game, and makes far fewer mistakes such as setting moving screens or committing unnecessary fouls. It’s more difficult to pinpoint the areas where Johnson outshines Maxiell. Johnson is a better rebounder and shot blocker, but Maxiell is ahead in most other statistical categories, which is reflected in his lead of nearly two points in PER.

Despite what the statistics say, Amir Johnson is a better player than Maxiell. While Maxiell leads to Johnson in most traditional statistics, Johnson dominates one crucial category: opponents points allowed.

With Jason Maxiell on the court this season, the Pistons have allowed 111.8 points per 100 possessions (the league average is near 105) With Amir Johnson on the court the Pistons give up just 102.1 point per 100 possessions. Offensively, the Pistons offense gains a modest 0.6 points per 100 possessions with Maxiell in the game as opposed to Johnson. In total, the Pistons are a net 9.1 points per 100 possessions better with Johnson on the court than with Maxiell. To put that in perspective, a net swing of 9.1 points per 100 possessions is roughly the difference between a 30-win team and a 55-win team in today’s NBA. The numbers were similar last season, when the Pistons were a net 8.1 points per 100 possessions better with Johnson on the court than with Maxiell.

The explanation for the disparity lies in the “little things” that do not show up in box scores. Amir Johnson is four inches taller than Maxiell and is therefore much better at contesting shots. Johnson also has better lateral quickness which allows him to close on perimeter shooters and recover to the basket more quickly than Maxiell can. Also, partly as a result of the height disparity, Johnson is much better at keeping possessions alive on the offensive end. Even on plays where Johnson does not corral the offensive rebound, he frequently tips missed shots to teammates or causes an opponent to knock the ball out of bounds. Lastly, Johnson’s superior defensive rebounding and shot blocking are crucial.

What Amir Johnson lacks in skill and basketball IQ, he makes up for with size, athleticism, and tenacity. Jason Maxiell is also athletic and plays with as much tenacity as anyone, but the reality is that 6’6 players who struggle to shoot or dribble rarely survive in the NBA. It should also be noted that whereas Johnson has the enormous hands one would expect on a 6’10 athlete, Maxiell has relatively small hands for an interior player. Numerous balls near Maxiell end up just out of his reach or bounce off of his hands.

The goal of an NBA team is to outscore its opponent. On a per possession basis, the Pistons have done that better with Amir Johnson on the court than with any other player on the team. His minutes have been jerked around all season, but it is time Amir Johnson becomes a permanent fixture in the rotation.

Read more...

Pistons vs. 76ers, 3.29.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-37) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (37-34)
Spread: Pistons -3
My Pick: 76ers by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Prince on Iguodala. Prince harassed Iguodala into a disastrous playoff series last year. Iguodala finished with a 33% field goal percentage while trying to shoot over Prince.
2. Ready to RIP. RIP carried the Piston offense last night. If the 76ers leave Willie Green on him, he should be able to do the same tonight.
3. Threes. The 76ers are the league’s worst three-point shooting team. The team’s only threats from deep are Thaddeus Young, who does opponents a favor when he settles for threes, and the re-discovered Donyell Marshall, who is too slow to play defense.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Tired Dice. Dice has been playing heavy minutes since Rasheed went down. After playing 37 hard minutes last night, he may not have his legs against Philly.
2. Youngn’s. Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams are loaded with talent and athleticism. They have hurt the Pistons before and could do the same tonight.
3. Confidence. The 76ers played great against Detroit in last year’s playoffs. Since then, Philly has improved while Detroit has taken a step (or two) back.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 101, Philadelphia 97
Notes:

• The Piston starters made 17 of their first 21 field goal attempts. The Pistons trailed by 1 at the half despite 61% shooting.
• Allen Iverson returned and wasted no time in reminding everyone that he is enormously talented, yet does little to positively impact this team. He has an awesome handle and is lightning quick, but too often, his decision-making leads to broken plays and/or forced shots. He was only attributed with two turnovers, but his high-risk passes led to a far greater number of turnovers and near-turnovers.
• Amir Johnson botched several scoring opportunities, left Andre Iguodala too early while hedging on a pick allowing Iggy to drill a three, and failed to box out Thaddeus Young on a crucial play which resulted in an offensive rebound and dunk. Despite all of those problems, Johnson was as important as any Piston in the win. He kept several possessions alive by attacking the offensive glass and was worlds better than Jason Maxiell and Walter Herrmann defensively. Credit Michael Curry for entrusting Johnson with fourth quarter minutes. Johnson was +10 in 19 minutes off the bench.
• I expected Tayshaun Prince to neutralize Andre Iguodala with his defense, but instead, he did so on the other end. Prince scored 21 points on just 11 shots to outplay Iguodala, who needed eight more shots and three more free throws to score eight more points than Prince.
• PER stud Marreese Speights had one of his worst performances of the season.
• Rodney Stuckey had a strong all-around performance, but Will Bynum was rewarded with crunch-time point guard duties after he sparked a 14-2 run early in the fourth quarter.

Read more...

Pistons at Wizards, 3.28.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-37) at Washington Wizards (17-56)
Spread: Pistons -6
My Pick: Pistons by 8

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Return of RIP. Arron Afflalo played well in spurts, but the Piston offense badly missed Hamilton. He should be back in the lineup tonight.
2. Weak Opponent. The Pistons have been losing games, but each of their last five losses has been against a playoff team. The 17-56 Wizards might be the tonic the Pistons need.
3. PG Defense. Depending on who’s healthy, some combination of Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton, and Juan Dixon will play point guard for Washington. Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum could each have huge games.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. No Sheed. Kwame Brown plays hard and is a strong defender, but he doesn’t have the skill set to compensate for the absence of Wallace.
2. Slumping 'Stons. The Pistons have lost eight of their last 11 games. No game, even one against the lowly Wizards, can be considered a gimme.
3. Hibachi! Gilbert Arenas is expected to return tonight. If his shot is on, he’s explosive offensively.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 98, Washington 96
Notes:

• Kwame “Stone Hands” Brown almost cost the Pistons the game when he failed to secure a rebound on the final possession. Brown’s inability to catch passes and rebounds is easily his biggest weakness.
• Even when Amir Johnson fails to fill up the stat sheet with much more than fouls, good things happen when he’s in the game. The Pistons outscored Washington 20-16 with Johnson in the game which helped build upon his already impressive +/- numbers for the season.
• The Piston bench was awesome in the first half and terrible in the second.
• Jason Maxiell had a big game, highlighted by five offensive rebounds, two blocks, and two dunks.
• RIP returned to the lineup with a bang. The work he has put in on his three point shot has really paid off. During his first two seasons in Detroit, he made 50 threes while shooting under 27% in 160 games. Over the last four seasons, he has made more than 50 threes every year while converting 40% of his attempts. Last night, he nailed five triples on his way to 31 points.
• JaVale McGee is absurdly athletic.

Read more...

Pistons vs. Lakers, 3.26.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-36) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (56-14)
Spread: Lakers -8
My Pick: Lakers by 12

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Recent History. Including the Finals, the Pistons are 12-3 against the Lakers in their last 15 meetings.
2. Kwame Brown. Kwame did a great job defending Pau Gasol the first time these teams meet this season. He will need to repeat that performance for Detroit to have a chance.
3. Tayshaun Prince. Prince is as good as it gets defending Kobe Bryant. Prince has also had success offensively, averaging 21.1 points per game in his last nine games against the Lakers.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Better. The Lakers are a much better team than the Pistons.
2. Healthier. The Lakers are a much healthier team than the Pistons.
3. Hotter. The Lakers are a much hotter team than the Pistons. While the Pistons have lost seven games in the past 20 days, the Lakers have not lost seven games in the past two months.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 77, Los Angeles 92
Notes:

• Will Bynum was incredible. He gave the Pistons life by sparking a 26-5 second quarter run. In the second half, he continued to play well, but he had little help from his Piston teammates. Bynum finished with 25 points and 11 assists. Bynum now leads the Pistons with a 17.59 PER. That says as much about the Pistons as it does about Bynum.
• The offense of choice – give the ball to Tayshaun, get out of the way – was not a good one. The problem is that without RIP, AI, or Sheed, the Pistons lacked alternatives.
• The Pistons were outscored by 37 with Prince on the court.
• Kobe Bryant + Pau Gasol + Triangle Offense = Lots of open looks for every Laker. The Lakers did not shoot particularly well against Detroit, but that offense is unstoppable if their perimeter players are converting open shots.
• Jordan Farmar has taken a noticeable step back after an impressive sophomore campaign. Derek Fisher is a liability on defense. He couldn’t stay in front of Will Bynum. Quick guards like Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, and Deron Williams routinely abuse Fisher. Point guard play should be right next to interior defense (if Bynum is not at full strength) on the list of the Lakers’ biggest worries for the playoffs.
• With RIP and Sheed out and Prince and Stuckey struggling, the Piston offense was lacking punch, to put it mildly.
• On the first play of the second half, Antonio McDyess did his best to compensate for Rasheed Wallace’s absence. Dice was called for a foul on Lamar Odom which he disagreed with. After Odom missed the first free throw, Dice shouted “Ball Don’t Lie” twice.
• For those who prefer hearing Sheed’s protests and watching Piston wins, there is good news; Sheed and RIP are expected to return Saturday.

Read more...

Pistons at Bulls, 3.24.09

I will be participating in a Live Blog (link) on PistonPowered.com during the game. Piston Powered is a Detroit Piston's blog that is a part of the ESPN.com TrueHoop blog network. During the Live Blog, I will discuss the game, the state of the team, and will be available to answer questions. Thanks to Dan Feldman of Piston Powered for helping set this up.

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-35) at Chicago Bulls (33-38)
Spread: Bulls -5
My Pick: Bulls by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Tired Bulls. The Bulls played a close game in Washington last night. Only eight Bulls played and they had to fly home less than 24 hours ago. They should have tired legs tonight.
2. Mediocrity. The Bulls have a glut of players who can be considered above average, but absolutely no one who is great. John Salmons has been their best player lately. Ask the Kings how well that works out. (Note: Derrick Rose has the potential to be great, but he has a long way to go.)
3. Tyrus Thomas. Mr. Inconsistent tends to play great against the Pistons. If he has one of his periodic big games, he could hurt the Pistons.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Home Cooking. The home team has won the last four matchups between these two teams.
2. Come Back Sheed. Kwame Brown can't score. Jason Maxiell is too short to excel at power forward. Amir Johnson can't earn his coach's trust. Rasheed has none of those problems, but he does have an injured calf that should keep him out of the lineup.
3. Antonio McDyess. If the Pistons have been losing with the way McDyess has been playing, what will happen when he reverts to playing like a normal player? McDyess cannot keep up his recent tear forever, right?

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 91, Chicago 99
Notes:

• The Bulls understood the playoff implications and acted accordingly. Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, and John Salmons each played 46 minutes.
• Tyrus Thomas simultaneously showed why he has the talent to be great and why it's so frustrating that he rarely plays as well as he can. He was the best player on the floor all game.
• Will Bynum was awesome. Other Pistons played well, but this squad requires super-human efforts to overcome all of its injuries.
• If the Bulls had any chance to win a playoff series (they don't), there would be a ton of logic behind starting Hinrich ahead of Derrick Rose.

Read more...

Ready Reserves

The standings show that the Pistons have been hurt by recent injuries. The Pistons have lost five of seven since Rasheed Wallace joined Allen Iverson on the injured list. RIP Hamilton has missed four games during that stretch, three of which were Piston losses. While the Pistons clearly miss their stars, there is a definite silver lining around the cloud of losses.

In the absence of three former All Stars, several Piston role players – most notably Will Bynum, Arron Afflalo, Kwame Brown, and Walter Herrmann – have had a chance to play extended minutes. The benefits are twofold. One positive is that the players have sufficient time to get comfortable and find a rhythm on the court. As a result, the coaching staff is able to discern what each player can offer the team and determine who deserves to be a part of the playoff rotation.

Will Bynum is doing his best to turn Allen Iverson into the modern day Wally Pipp. Bynum has electrified crowds with his ability to break down defenses and get into the paint. In the month of March, Bynum has poured in 9.8 points in just 18.8 minutes per game. Bynum still needs to improve his shooting – his effective field goal percentage is just 45.5% and he has not made a three all month – but his ability to create instant offense has been a welcome contribution off the bench. The fact that he has as many steals as turnovers this month also helps matters.

Bynum has proven to be a useful backup point guard, although it remains to be seen how many minutes he would play if everyone gets healthy. Even if his minutes are cut the remainder of this season, he has an inside track at the backup point guard duties and an increased role upon the inevitable departure of Allen Iverson this offseason.

Afflalo played in 51 of the team’s first 52 games, but watched his minutes slowly dry up as the season progressed. Afflalo was squeezed from the rotation partly due to a poor January, but also in part because Michael Curry went away from the small ball lineups that allowed for a rotation with six perimeter players. In the first 12 games after the All Star break, Afflalo played just 54 minutes total.

When the injuries began to pile up, Afflalo re-entered the regular rotation. Over the past six games, he has averaged just over 30 minutes per game. In that stretch, he is averaging 10.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 2 three pointers per game with an effective field goal percentage of 56.25%. While the stats won’t blow anyone away, Afflalo’s accurate outside shooting and tough perimeter defense have been a huge plus for a team sorely lacking in those two areas.

Arron Afflalo is in a similar position to Bynum. He is clearly deserving of a spot in the rotation, but it is entirely possible his minutes will be squeezed should Michael Curry have his full contingent of players healthy. As is the case with Bynum, Afflalo should be assured of a more significant role next season.

Kwame Brown has lived up to his four-million-dollar salary with his recent play in place of Rasheed Wallace. While no one will ever confuse the two offensively, Brown has proven to be a sturdy post defender. Over the past five games the Pistons have outscored their opponents by 31 points with Brown in the game, but have been outscored by 30 with him on the bench. Brown has averaged 8.0 points 8.4 rebounds in 29.4 minutes over that stretch, despite often playing alongside rebounding machine Antonio McDyess.

For a while, Brown appeared to be the odd man out of the big man rotation. Based on his recent play, he seems to have surpassed Amir Johnson, if not Jason Maxiell, in Michael Curry’s pecking order. All three should be expected to continue to jostle for position during the remaining few weeks of the season.

During one stretch of 18 games, Walter Herrmann played 11 minutes total. Given that the Pistons have yearned for better three point shooting all season, it was inevitable that he would get another chance. Over the last month, he has gotten that chance, but has produced mixed results. Herrmann has played in 15 of the Pistons’ last 16 games. In those 15 games, he has averaged just less than 5 points per game in 14 minutes of action. He has converted 14 of 39 (35.8%) from behind the arc and 14 of 32 (43.8%) inside it.

Since Herrmann brings almost nothing to the table outside of his shooting, his mediocre efficiency will not get it done. In the last two games, Herrmann played well against the Clippers and hit a crucial three against Miami, so there may be signs of life. Herrmann needs to build on that if he hopes to continue playing. The more likely result is that Herrmann joins Ronald Dupree, Maurice Evans, Carlos Delfino, and Jarvis Hayes on the list of players who failed to secure the role of Tayshaun Prince’s backup.

While the Pistons have learned a great deal about those four players, the results have been mixed. Will Bynum and Arron Afflalo have played well, but a healthy Piston squad has a glut of guards that would limit potential playing time for either. Brown and Herrmann had a better chance to secure additional minutes, but the play of each has been up and down.

At the very least, the Pistons’ role players have used the injuries to the stars to gain game experience and prepare themselves for the playoffs. While it was important for the role players to gain experience, the ultimate goal is to win the games. For that to happen, the Pistons need their stars healthy and their lesser players to continue to produce, but to do so in lesser roles and fewer minutes. The reserves have proven their worth as complimentary pieces. The losses are mounting based on a lack of stars for them compliment.

Read more...

Pistons vs. Heat, 3.22.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-34) vs. Miami Heat (36-32)
Spread: Pistons -2
My Pick: Pistons by 6

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Win:

1. Road Trouble. The Heat will be playing the final game of a road trip that has started 0-3. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games.
2. Said Who? In ESPN’s Daily Dime, Mark Jackson states: “I think the Heat are clearly closer to competing for a championship, and if you asked both Dumars and Riley, they would have to agree with me.” I think he is clearly wrong, especially regarding Joe Dumars' opinion. Miami wasted its potential cap space on Jermaine O’Neal, is looking at a draft pick in the late teens, and has no one outside of Wade and Michael Beasley with the talent to be above average NBA starter. Other than that, Championship here they come!
3. Board War. Miami is last among probably playoff teams in rebound rate. Detroit has been awesome on the glass during the last several games. That trend should continue today.

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Lose:

1. Sunday. The Pistons are an embarrassing 2-11 on Sundays.
2. Wear and Tear. Eventually, the heavy minutes Tayshaun Prince and Antonio McDyess have been playing will affect their play.
3. Dwyane Wade. Wade is dealing with an injured hip, but if he can play, he can dominate. Wade has played the best basketball of anyone not named LeBron this season.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 96, Miami 101
Notes:

• This was one the most exciting, well-played games Detroit has been involved in all season.
• In a vacuum, Dwyane Wade is awesome. Compared to other NBA shooting guards, Wade is easily the best. Kobe Bryant wishes he had Wade’s athleticism.
• Jamario Moon treats the hardwood like a trampoline.
• Proof steals are a terrible measure of defense: Mario Chalmers tallies four times as many steals per minute as Tayshaun Prince yet Chalmers was the worst defender on the court while Prince was the best.
• Jermaine O’Neal scored two clutch baskets, but otherwise played very poorly on both ends of the floor. How does someone his size pull down only one defensive rebound in 34 minutes?
  
  

Read more...

Pistons vs. Clippers, 3.20.2009

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (33-34) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (17-51)
Spread: Pistons -8
My Pick: Pistons by 7

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Win:

1. The Clippers. They stink, they put forth as little effort as they can get away with, and their coach has lost the team.
2. Tayshaun Prince. After being hounded by Ron Artest, Prince should have a field day against notoriously poor defender Al Thornton. Prince should feel like he's playing against JV players the day after facing a school's varsity team.
3. The Role Players. Will Bynum, Arron Afflalo and Kwame Brown have all played the best basketball of the season lately. As the Pistons continue to deal with injuries, those three should get plenty of opportunities.

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Lose:

1. The Grizzlies. If the Pistons can lose home games to the Grizzlies and the Knicks, anything is possible.
2. Health Swap. The last time these two teams met, the Clippers were missing half of their rotation. Tonight, it is the Pistons who will be undermanned.
3. Eric Gordon. The rookie has only improved since dropping 31 on the Pistons in January.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 108, Los Angeles 90
Notes:

• The Pistons were without four of their top-five scorers and still beat a healthy Clipper squad by 18.
• Antonio McDyess continues to put up Dwight Howard-esque stat lines. He kept the Pistons in the game during the first half.
• Will Bynum, Tayshaun Prince, and Walter Herrmann all had great games. Much of Tayshaun’s success resulted from Mike Dunleavy’s odd decision to let Baron Davis defend Prince for a large portion of the second half.
• Eric Gordon and Zach Randolph both have tons of talent. The difference is Gordon has the basketball IQ to match his athletics gifts. The former Hoosier scored 22 points on only nine shots.
• The Pistons continue to avoid turnovers and grab tons of offensive rebounds.
• The Clippers should be embarrassed about the lack of defense they played in the second half.
  

Read more...

Dodging a McBullet

At the 24:20 mark this Bill Simmons podcast, where Simmons interviewed Rockets GM Daryl Morey, Simmons asked Morey if he came close to trading Tracy McGrady last summer. During Morey’s response, he named only one team as a potential suitor for T-Mac. “Detroit did have interest [in trading for McGrady.] It just never worked out for both sides,” Morey said. The fact that the Rockets were unable to make a deal work with Detroit is one of the luckiest moments in Piston franchise history. While Iverson has been a disaster in Detroit, acquiring McGrady would have been significantly worse for the Pistons.

Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson have quite a bit in common. Both are former superstars who have failed to adjust to diminishing athleticism. When they play, Iverson and McGrady are both volume shooters who rely far too heavily on contested jump shots. This season, both players have an effective field goal percentage below 44 percent, well below the league average. Neither plays excels on defense or does much to help his team outside of scoring, so if they are shooting that ineffectively, they are marginal players at best.

The parallels do not end there. Both players have missed significant time this season with “injuries.” In both cases, there has been rampant speculation that the amount of time missed and the severity of the injuries do not align. Neither team should be too upset if the players are exaggerating their injuries. The Pistons have been much better without Iverson this year and the same can be said of the Rockets without McGrady.

Despite rapidly declining production, Iverson and McGrady are two of the six highest paid players in the NBA. Contracts also happen to be the point of differentiation between the two players who peaked more than half a decade ago. Allen Iverson’s contract expires this season. His departure will afford the Pistons unrivaled financial flexibility during an offseason in which few teams will be looking to spend money. McGrady, on the other hand, is owed over 23 million dollars next season. Had the Pistons acquired McGrady, their impending cap space would have evaporated.

It is hard to know what trade possibilities were discussed, but if the Rockets passed on an opportunity to deal McGrady for Chauncey Billups, Daryl Morey may have cost his team an NBA Championship. A starting lineup of Billups, Battier, Artest, Scola, and Yao would have rivaled the Lakers as the best in the West. Instead, Houston is just another second-tier team out West.

While the Rockets missed a potential home run, the Pistons avoided hitting into a double play. A trade for McGrady would have made the Pistons worse in the short term and delayed their financial flexibility, when compared to a deal for Iverson. The trade for Allen Iverson has not worked out well for the Pistons. Just know that it could have turned out much worse.

Read more...

Pistons at Rockets, 3.18.09

I will be participating in a Live Blog (link) on PistonPowered.com during the game. Piston Powered is a Detroit Piston's blog that is a part of the ESPN.com TrueHoop blog network. During the Live Blog, I will discuss the game, the state of the team, and will be available to answer questions. Thanks to Dan Feldman of Piston Powered for helping set this up.

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (33-33) at Houston Rockets (44-25)
Spread: Rockets -9
My Pick: Rockets by 12

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Man Down. The Rockets will not have standout reserve Carl Landry, who, like Rasheed Wallace, has a calf injury. Unlike Rasheed Wallace, Landry sustained his calf injury via a gunshot wound.
2. 80 Inches of Flu. Yao Ming is expected to play, but he has been battling the flu this week. With Tracy McGrady sidelined, the Rockets need the offense to run through Yao. If he is ineffective, the Rocket offense may be reduced to contested Ron Artest jump shots.
3. Shot Selection. Speaking of Artest jump shots, he’s near the league lead in ill-advised shot attempts. Occasionally his contested heaves go in, but his current shooting slump – 34% on field goals in his last five games – could easily continue tonight if he settles for jumpers. Von Wafer and Aaron Brooks also have a penchant for launching some head-scratchers.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Rocket Defense. The Rockets began the season as one of the top defensive teams in the NBA. Losing T-Mac and flipping Rafer Alston for Kyle Lowry puts them at the top of their class in the West.
2. Texas Two-Step. This is the fifth consecutive season the Pistons will play consecutive road games in Texas. Entering today’s game, the Pistons are 1-3 in the second half of the Texas trip.
3. Ailing Pistons. Iverson is out. Rasheed is doubtful. RIP is questionable. Afflalo is banged-up. Stuckey looks worn down. Will Bynum, Jason Maxiell, Kwame Brown, and Walter Herrmann will have to drastically out-perform their roles for the Pistons to have a chance.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 101, Houston 106 (2OT)
Notes:

• The Pistons are starting to pile up the moral victories. They played very well considering all the missing pieces.
• Normally Tayshaun Prince steps up when the Pistons are ailing, but Ron Artest was all over Prince last night.
• Arron Afflalo was awesome, scoring 24 points on 13 shots. He is 24-46 with 13 made three pointers since the All-Star break. That’s good for a ridiculous 66.3% effective field goal percentage. (The league average hovers around 50%)
• Prince played 55 minutes while McDyess played 51.
• Once again, the Pistons dominated the glass and the turnover battle, but failed to overcome a huge disparity in field goal percentage.

Read more...

Pistons at Mavericks, 3.17.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (33-32) at Dallas Mavericks (40-27)
Spread: Mavericks -5.5
My Pick: Pistons by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Winning Opponent. The Pistons are 4-1 in their last five games against teams with a winning record. Going back to early February, Detroit is 2-4 in its last six games against teams with losing records.
2. Hurting Howard. Howard is expected to be sidelined. Without him, Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry are the only reliable scoring options for Rick Carlisle.
3. Pit Stop. The Mavericks are technically at home, but tonight’s game is sandwiched between two road trips for the Mavs. In terms of travel schedules, this will feel like a road game for both teams.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Sheed’s Calf. The Pistons will miss the mercurial big man if he is unable to play. Jason Maxiell and Kwame Brown are fine as the third and fourth big men. The problems arise when they each have to move up a slot in the pecking order.
2. Jason Terry. Terry can light it up off the bench for Dallas. Without Iverson, the Piston bench lacks anyone who can do the same.
3. Brandon Bass. When Jason Maxiell faces undersized power forwards who can match his energy level, Maxiell comes up short more often than not. Since the start of 2008, in three games each against Bass and Paul Millsap, Maxiell has averaged 5.7 points and 4 rebounds per game while his counterparts have contributed 15.3 points 6.2 rebounds per contest. Bass went off for 18 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block when the Mavericks visited the Palace earlier this year.

Update: RIP Hamilton is out tonight. Arron Afflalo will start in his place. Stuckey and Prince will need to have huge scoring nights for the Pistons to be competitive.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 101, Dallas 103
Notes:

• The Pistons lost by only two despite a 15% difference in field goal accuracy. The Pistons kept the game close by limiting turnovers (6) and dominating the glass (17-4 edge in offensive rebounds).
• I’m coming around on Will Bynum. He hit a few jump shots during a strong second half and has been great the past few games. It will be tough to find playing time for both Iverson and Bynum during the playoffs, but Bynum is at least forcing Curry to think about ways to get him into games.
• Afflalo deserves consistent minutes until further notice.
• The Mavericks had a convenient answer to the Pistons’ fourth quarter run: Dirk Nowitzki. He was unstoppable all game.
• The Pistons, on the other hand, struggled to find an answer for Brandon Bass on the pick and pop.

Read more...

Pistons vs. Grizzlies, 3.15.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (33-31) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (16-48)
Spread: Pistons -9
My Pick: Pistons by 6

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. The Grizzlies. Memphis has lost three times as many games as they have won. They are a bad NBA team.
2. The Grizzlies on the Road. The Grizz are 4-27 away from home. No team has fewer road wins, although Sacramento is tied.
3. The Grizzlies’ Offense. Young teams like Memphis typically struggle on the road and play poor defense. While those generalizations fit the Grizzlies, Memphis is also second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency.
   

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Injuries. Injuries should level the playing field to some extent.
2. Poor Focus. The Pistons lost to the Knicks at home last week, so nothing is out of the question.
3. Small Ball. With Rasheed on the shelf, small ball returned with poor results in the Piston’s last game. If Curry tries this avenue again, he can expect similar results.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 84, Memphis 89
Notes:

• The Sunday thing is getting ridiculous.
• In a battle of two of the biggest draft flops in NBA history facing their former teams, Kwame Brown and Darko Milicic... starred? When each player was drafted, the expectation was that each was the type of player capable of 18-point, 24-rebound performances. Yesterday, the two much-maligned backup centers combined for that stat line in 46 minutes of action. Both players showed the talent that had scouts drooling earlier this decade.
• As awesome as RIP’s recent assist binge has been, the production has been mitigated by far too many turnovers. Hamilton has 19 turnovers in the last three games.
• Stuckey had one of the worst games of his season. His stat line told the story: two points and four turnovers.

Read more...

Pistons at Raptors, 3.13.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (32-31) at Toronto Raptors (23-42)
Spread: Pistons -1
My Pick: Pistons by 5

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Antonio McDyess. This season, McDyess has the highest rebound rate of his career and has been the third best rebounding power forward in the NBA (Marcin Gortat doesn’t count, he plays center). Dice has been awesome this year.
2. Point Guard Power. Jose Calderon would need about five years worth of uninterrupted weight training to match Stuckey’s strength. Stuckey should be able to attack the basket at will.
3. Weaker Bench. Without Iverson and Rasheed, the Pistons bench should again be pitiful. The fact that the Raptor’s bench is just as bad, except without the injury excuse, goes a long way toward explaining the team’s 23-42 record.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Shawn Marion. In the first two meetings between these teams this season, Tayshaun Prince averaged 26 points per game on 72.4% shooting. That won’t happen on Marion’s watch, even though the forward's play is in rapid decline.
2. Chris Bosh. Aside from the fact that he’s awesome at basketball, is there a more likable, self-aware athlete on the planet? (Evidence: here, and here. Dear Chris, Please sign with the Pistons in 2010.)
3. No Sheed. The Pistons will miss him, especially on the defensive end. It’s not about the backup. It’s about the backup’s backup.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 99, Toronto 95 (OT)
Notes:

• Jason Maxiell made amends for his poor play in his previous Monday. Maxiell was 8-9 shooting and blocked two shots. On a negative note, he had just six rebounds in 38 minutes.
• RIP and Dice were all over the stat sheet. The duo combined for 40 points, 18 rebounds, 18 assists, three blocks, eight turnovers, eight fouls, and 91 minutes.
• With five minutes left in the third quarter and the Pistons leading 33-31, small ball returned. Toronto immediately went on a 14-7 run which only ended when the Pistons were bailed out by halftime. The Pistons went back to small ball for five minutes in the fourth quarter and were out-scored 8-7. While the decision is less horrific due to Rasheed’s absence, Amir Johnson should have been on the court.
• It was nice to see Afflalo play well in 23 minutes. In his last seven games, he has played 77 minutes and is 11-20 including five made threes. He could be a big boost to the Piston bench if he can continue to shoot well.
• The Raptors only have six players worthy of playing in an NBA rotation and three of them are Andrea Bargnani, Anthony Parker, and Joey Graham. Could anyone blame Chris Bosh if he bolts? If Detroit rolls its cap space over to 2010, it should roll out the red carpet for the man they passed up in 2004.

Read more...

Pistons vs. Knicks, 3.11.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (32-30) vs New York Knicks (26-37)
Spread: Pistons -6.5
My Pick: Pistons by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. The Knicks Stink. The Knicks have lost 12 of their last 17 games. They are 8-22 on the road. 2010 can’t arrive soon enough for this franchise.
2. Chris Duhon. He starts at point guard for the Knicks. Duhon has an OK all-around game, but does not do anything well enough to merit a starting spot.
3. Larry Hughes. Hughes has had to carry the offensive load for the Knicks lately. That would have been fine a few in 2005. Since then, he’s had more surgeries than productive seasons.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. No Sheed. Sheed is out two games with a strained calf. The Pistons will miss his defense and shooting abilities.
2. The RFAs. Nate Robinson and David Lee are the two best players on the Knicks. Both are also working for new contracts. Detroit has a ton of impending cap flexibility, so they should be motivated to impress tonight.
3. Weak Bench. The Piston’s already thin bench is losing its best player – Jason Maxiell – to the starting lineup tonight. Hopefully Curry is smart enough to play Amir Johnson. As well as Kwame Brown played against Orlando, there is no Dwight Howard for him to guard tonight

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 111, New York 116 (OT)
Notes:

• The Knicks absolutely stole one in the Detroit. A weak bench (coach included) killed the Pistons tonight. Everyone but Antonio McDyess ran out of gas for the fourth quarter and overtime. 51 minutes for Tayshaun Prince.
• Jason Maxiell was non-existent. He is a nice backup, but is not starter material.
• Mike D’Antoni used a trapping scheme that the Pistons, specifically RIP, never seemed to figure out. The Pistons needed Rasheed to beat that trap.
• The Knicks overcame a 25 rebound deficit by committing just three turnovers. RIP nearly tripled that total on his own.
• What exactly does Larry Hughes do well? Chris Duhon? Wilson Chandler? Quentin Richardson? The fact that Mike D’Antoni took this job speaks volumes about the power of the dollar.
• What RIP does well: make open jumpers. He is averaging over 25 points per game in his last eight.
• What Antonio McDyess does well: rebound. He has 40 in the last two games.
• One theory on D’Antoni’s otherwise bizarre decision not to start its best perimeter player – Nate Robinson: the Knicks may want to reduce his contract offers this summer by making teams question his ability to start.

Read more...

Rounding Out the Rotation

The future of the Piston’s season hinges on two pieces falling into place much better than they have thus far. If the Pistons are going to make noise in the playoffs, they need Allen Iverson playing well and Michael Curry making smart decisions about his rotation. To date, Iverson has had a negative impact on the team – through his play, not his behavior – while Curry has often appeared lost. For Detroit to win a series or two, the team needs its bench to contribute. The only scenario in which that is possible involves a productive Allen Iverson and a logical rotation.

Without Iverson, the Piston’s perimeter backups have been inconsistent, to put it mildly. Arron Afflalo played well in the first half of the season, but has been mired in a horrible slump the last eight weeks. His PER for the season has fallen to 8.31. Despite his strong defense, he does not deserve to play based on that lack of production. Afflalo should get one more opportunity, given that his game seems to compliment Iverson’s nicely in the sense that Afflalo plays strong defense and does not need the ball on offense. However, Afflalo will only warrant consistent minutes if he can knock down open shots.

The man who has replaced Afflalo in the rotation is Walter Herrmann. Herrmann has made several spectacular plays this season. Those plays overshadow the many easy ones he has botched. Herrmann’s value to the team is supposed to lie in his shooting ability. This season, he has converted just 36.4 percent of his field goals attempts. Many of his makes have been threes, but the flip side of that perimeter shooting has been an inability to get to the free throw line. The result is that Herrmann has the worst true shooting percentage among the 12 Pistons who regularly dress.

Defensively, the exception has once again overshadowed the rule with Herrmann. Last spring, he played excellent defense on Dirk Nowitzki during a comeback attempt by the Pistons. Aside from that one game, he has typically been overmatched on the defensive end of the court. Herrmann often plays like his shoes are on fire. He is constantly jumping around and shuffling his feet. With so much movement, he often finds himself out of position and is easily beaten by his man. For Joe Dumars, the search for Tayshaun Prince’s backup should continue. Thus far, Ronald Dupree, Carlos Delfino, Maurice Evans, Jarvis Hayes, and now Herrmann have failed to fill the void left by trading Corliss Williamson.

The lone bright spot, as far as perimeter backups are concerned, has been Will Bynum. On a per-minute basis, Bynum leads the Pistons in assists and steals and is second to Allen Iverson in free throw attempts. However, with the good comes the bad for Bynum. He leads the Pistons in turnovers per minute, has fallen behind Allen Iverson into last on the Pistons in effective field goal percentage, and has a poor outside shot.

Bynum is effective at driving into the paint and drawing multiple defenders. While that skill has come in handy lately, that happens to be identical to Allen Iverson’s strength on the court. Both Bynum and Iverson are most effective with the ball in their hands. When one also considers that neither player is six-feet tall, it is hard to imagine them playing together. Rodney Stuckey and RIP Hamilton have clearly established themselves as the Pistons best backcourt, so they should be on the floor together as much as possible. Given that, it is hard to imagine Michael Curry finding minutes for both Bynum and Iverson. Curry hinted that he may want to try and play Bynum and Iverson together. Hopefully he reconsiders.

As much as Iverson can help the bench, he has the potential to do just as much damage to the starting unit. The Pistons need their best five players starting and finishing each half. If that means Iverson only plays 15 minutes per game, so be it. The Piston offense is most effective when the starters play together. Playing Iverson alongside three or four other starters would be counter-productive. The Pistons could rest three or more starters at once while Iverson takes over the offense. As soon as all five starters have had enough of a breather to return for the remainder of the half, Curry needs to send Iverson to the bench.

Without Iverson, the Piston bench has been ineffective. With him, the bench has the potential to be explosive. Curry needs to strike a balance between letting Iverson carry the bench unit without letting him take away from the starters’ effectiveness. The Piston’s season depends on it.

Read more...

Pistons vs. Magic, 3.09.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (31-30) vs Orlando Magic (46-16)
Spread: Magic -1
My Pick: Pistons by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. The Magic('s) Number. The puns have not started to bore me quite yet. The Pistons have eliminated the Magic from each of Orlando’s last three playoff appearances (2003, 2007, 2008). Detroit has also won 18 of the last 23 regular season games between the two.
2. Better Backcourt. Rodney Stuckey and RIP Hamilton should have the upper hand against their counterparts on the Magic – Rafer Alston and Courtney Lee. Hamilton should be especially dominant; he has scored at least 31 points in each of his last three games against Orlando, including two playoff wins.
3. Letdown Game. After Orlando’s big win over the Celtics yesterday, there may be a bit of a letdown in terms of intensity tonight.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Durable Dwight. In past season’s Dwight Howard’s production has tailed off in the second half of the season. Not this year. Howard’s monthly splits show no signs of decline.
2. Marcin Gortat. If the Pistons try to neutralize Gortat with Kwame Brown, they will lose that matchup. Instead, they should counter Gortat with a more athletic player.
3. The Deep Ball. Orlando’s offense relies on threes, a shot which the Pistons have not defended well this season. Detroit held Orlando to 4-19 from long range in their last meeting. A repeat of that defensive effort will be necessary tonight.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 98, Orlando 94
Notes:

• The biggest lead for either team all game was six points. The Magic never led by more than four.
• Antonio McDyess was huge. His play compensated for a Rasheed Wallace injury. Wallace did not play after the first quarter.
• Kwame Brown played great. He was awesome defensively and made five of six shots. With that said, his presence offensively had its drawbacks when Orlando was able to clog the paint. Fortunately for the Pistons, RIP Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince hit tough jumpers.
• The Pistons overcame 29 Orlando free throws by dominating the glass and the turnover battle. Detroit had 15 offensive rebounds to Orlando's six and seven turnovers compared to Orlando's 15.

Read more...

Pistons at Hawks 3.07.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (31-29) at Atlanta Hawks (34-28)
Spread: Hawks -2.5
My Pick: Pistons by 5

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Perimeter Defense. The first time these teams met this season, Mike Bibby dropped 27 points on Allen Iverson. In their second matchup, Flip Murray took a turn torching AI and dropped 23. Without Iverson, the Pistons should defend the Hawk guards much more successfully.
2. Mad Max. Maxiell was awesome last night. The Hawks thin bench should have no answer for Maxiell. In the first meeting between these two teams, Maxiell had an inexplicable DNP. That will not be the case tonight.
3. Saturday. While the Pistons have struggled on Sundays, they have been much better the other half of the weekend. The Pistons are 4-2 in Saturday games. They should enjoy this opportunity because they play on Sunday each of the next four weekends.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Joe Johnson. Johnson is a great, if somewhat overrated, player. The Pistons have no one who can match up with the 6’8 guard.
2. Hawks at Home. Atlanta is 20-7 at home compared to just 14-21 away from Phillips Arena.
3. Young Athletes. The Hawks are far more athletic than the Pistons, especially along the frontline. Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Al Horford will all have quickness advantages at their respective positions.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 83, Atlanta 87
Notes:

• Kwame Brown killed the Piston's momentum in the first half. Once again, why is he playing ahead of Amir Johnson? Brown offers nothing offensively and is a poor rebounder for his position. In order to deserve minutes as a defensive specialist, a player needs to either be competent offensively (Shane Battier, Bruce Bowen) or strong on the glass (Ben Wallace, Dikembe Mutumbo). Brown is neither.
• The Hawks put the clamps on defensively in the second half.
• Al Horford merits the clichéd description of "player every team would love to have."
• The Piston guards (Stuckey, Hamilton, Bynum, Afflalo) all played well. The frontcourt players played fine, but missed far too many makeable shots and finished 13-41 from the field.

Read more...

Pistons vs. Warriors, 3.06.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (30-29) vs. Golden State Warriors (21-40)
Spread: Pistons -9
My Pick: Pistons by 16

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Which Warriors? Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Ronny Turiaf, and Brandan Wright are all out tonight. Kelenna Azubuike is questionable. The other Warriors periodically sit out games for no reason other than Don Nelson’s coaching creativity, for lack of a better term. The Warriors were mediocre to begin with. Without half of their rotation, tonight’s game could get out of hand. (Update: Turiaf played, Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette did not.)
2. Little Big Men. Without Biedrins, Turiaf, and Wright, the Warriors will play one of weakest frontcourts the NBA has seen all season. There are D-League teams with comparable, if not better, big men than Golden State will use tonight.
3. Chuckers. The healthy Warriors include Stephen Jackson and Jamal Crawford, two volume scorers shooting below 42% for the season. The Pistons offense should be far more efficient against the no-defense Warriors.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. No Respect. The only way tonight’s game will be close is if the Pistons fail to respect their opponents as legitimate NBA players. The Pistons have a huge edge in talent, but NBA wins are earned, not given away.
2. Corey Maggette. Maggette is the type of bruising wing who gives Tayshaun Prince trouble. If he goes off, he could keep the game competitive.
3. They Won’t. The Pistons will not have an easier game on the schedule all season. If they lose tonight, Bill Davidson should pull a Mark Cuban and threaten to trade the entire roster.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 108, Golden State 91
Notes:

• PG Monta Ellis, SG Kelenna Azubuike, SF Stephen Jackson, PF Brandan Wright, C Andris Biedrins, and sub Corey Maggette. The top-six players in the Warrior rotation? Not last night, when those were the six Warriors who took the night off.
• The 63-40 first half score was indicative of the difference between perfect execution and none.
• Stuckey has played much better defense since the recent lineup switch. He did OK defending shooting guards, but has been far better against point guards.
• What did Kwame Brown do to earn Amir Johnson's minutes? What could Michael Curry have possibly seen from Kwame Brown that impressed him?

Read more...

Fastbreak Buckets 3.06.09

-If the Pistons want to separate themselves from the pack at the bottom of the East standings, they need to win five of their next six games – a feat which seems very possibly given their upcoming schedule. Detroit’s upcoming schedule features home games against Golden State, Orlando, New York, and Memphis along with road games against Atlanta and Toronto. The Pistons should dominate Golden State, New York, and Memphis, while Toronto should not pose much of a threat. If the Pistons maintain last week’s momentum, they should also fare well against Orlando and Atlanta. If the Pistons hope to make a push for a top-five seed in the playoffs – hence avoiding the East’s big-three in round one – there is no time like the present to make a move up the standings.

-Piston fans need to calm down about Will Bynum. The positives about Bynum are that he is fun to watch and he has an uncanny ability to get to the basket. The negatives are everything else. Bynum has no confidence in his jump shot and for good reason – he has made 29% of non-layup two-pointers and is 1/6 on threes this season. Despite his ability to get to the basket, he is shooting only 41%. A player Bynum’s size cannot survive in the NBA without a reliable jumper. Whenever he is on the court, opposing defenses simply clog the paint and force Bynum’s teammates to shoot over people. Bynum has shown enough this season to stick in the NBA as a third point guard, but until he learns to shoot well enough to keep defenses honest, he should not be playing significant minutes.

-Speaking of players who need to fix their shot, Arron Afflalo has disappeared from the Piston’s rotation. Afflalo is a nice defender with the potential to mimic the career paths of players like Raja Bell, Bruce Bowen, and Mickael Pietrus. While none of those players are great offensively, all hit open shots and force defenses to play them honestly. Therein lies the problem for Afflalo; his shot has abandoned him lately. Since the start of February, Afflalo is 2-11 on non-layup two pointers and 1-5 on threes. January was not much better – he shot below 40% for the month.

As a result of his poor shooting, Afflalo has played 14 minutes total in the team’s last seven games. During the first 30 games of the season, Afflalo shot better than 46% with more than a quarter of his makes coming on threes. He needs to re-establish that stroke if he hopes to return to the rotation. The good news for Afflalo’s future is that similar players have tended to be late bloomers. Raja Bell did not post a respectable PER until age 27, but is currently in the midst of his sixth consecutive productive season. Likewise, Bruce Bowen did not even find his footing in the NBA until he was 26. If Afflalo can continue to improve his defense and work on his shot, he should be valuable role player down the road. In the meantime, he’s going to be hard-pressed to earn minutes if he continues to be an offensive zero.

-One often overlooked aspect of the trade for Allen Iverson was the cap space created by including Antonio McDyess in the deal. While Pistons fans are very aware that the team cleared Billups’ twelve-million-a-year contract off the books, it should be noted that the Pistons no longer are obligated to pay McDyess 7.5 million next season. McDyess is an excellent role player who has done great things in Detroit, but in this economy, that money could go a long way on the free agent market this summer. Detroit should have roughly 18 million in cap space this summer.

Read more...

Pistons vs. Nuggets, 3.03.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (29-29) vs. Denver Nuggets (39-21)
Spread: Pistons -3
My Pick: Pistons by 8

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. No Allen Iverson. Iverson is in Washington D.C. The game is being played in Michigan. That means lots of minutes for Rodney Stuckey and RIP Hamilton, the two best guards on the Piston roster.
2. No Carmelo Anthony. Melo has been suspended by his team for tonight’s game. Without him, the Nugget offense lacks firepower.
3. Shooting Guard Mismatch. In the past three games, RIP Hamilton has scored 80 points. His counterpart tonight, Dahntay Jones, has accumulated the same point total in his last 16 games combined.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Chauncey Billups. The best player in tonight’s game no longer wears Piston blue.
2. Welcome Home. The first game back from a long road trip is often a major challenge for the home team.
3. Three Pointers. The Pistons have defended the three ball poorly this season. If that trend continues, Billups, J.R. Smith, and Linas Kleiza could light up the Palace.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 100, Denver 95
Notes:

• All five Piston starters played well.
• Chauncey showed Detroit what it’s missing.
• Michael Curry deserves credit for switching Hamilton onto Billups, a move that turned around the game in the second half. The timeout he took early in the second half also seemed to have a profound effect on his players. Once again, Curry seems like a much better coach without Iverson.
• Curry was far from flawless. There was no reason to play Kwame Brown seven minutes.
• The Nuggets went on their first half run when Will Bynum and Walter Herrmann played. Bynum and Herrmann are fan favorites, but they should not be in the rotation of a good team. Bynum can't shoot; Denver simply ignored him whenever he did not have the ball. While Herrmann can shoot, he struggles with everything else.
• The Piston’s lackluster bench play showed why they could benefit from Iverson, but only if he is willing to accept limited minutes. 20-25 minutes a game would be ideal.
• Only three Nuggets scored more than six points.

Read more...

Fastbreak Buckets 3.02.2009

This edition of Fastbreak Buckets is an all-Allen Iverson version.

-During yesterday’s win in Boston, the Pistons made a fundamental change in their defense – they switched on most picks. While Stuckey, Hamilton, and Prince are far from interchangeable defensively, there was little hesitation for any of the three to switch defensive assignments after a screen. They were able to do this because all three players have the size to guard point guards and wings, while also possessing the quickness to stay in front of any of the Celtics.

When Allen Iverson is on the court, the Pistons lose this ability. Iverson is typically too small to guard any player but opposing point guards. When a screen is set on Iverson, the screener’s defender has to step out on the opposing guard and then retreat to his own man. This potentially problematic task is necessary to ensure that Iverson does not have to switch onto a bigger player. That responsibility has placed a difficult burden on many of the Pistons and is a primary reason their defense has suffered this season. Iverson’s lack of size is out his control, but that is the biggest reason he is such a liability on defense.

-As much as Iverson has hurt the Pistons defensively, he has done the most damage on offense. Game recaps from the two weekend games were filled with players and coaches talking about how much better the Pistons move the ball without Iverson. Iverson tends to attack defenses off the dribble and often attempts contested mid-range jumpers. The constant dribbling takes the Pistons out of their offense and hinders the ability of players like Rodney Stuckey and Tayshaun Prince to be effective. The contested jumpers Iverson so frequently takes are the least efficient shot in basketball. Iverson does not make nearly of them to justify the regularity with which he takes such shots. If Iverson can accept a role in which he plays limited minutes as a change-of-pace offensive force playing alongside backups who struggle to score, he can help the Pistons. Otherwise, the Pistons should cut their losses and give him the Marbury treatment.

-In a related note, while the focus has been on the starting lineup lately, there is another question that needs to be answered. Which Pistons will finish close games? For the same reasons that Iverson should not start games, he should not finish them. Hopefully, Curry was paying attention this weekend and noticed that the Pistons played two of their best fourth quarters all season without Iverson.

Read more...

Pistons at Celtics, 3.01.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (28-29) at Boston Celtics(47-13)
Spread: Celtics -9
My Pick: Celtics by 5

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Starting Lineup. For the second consecutive game, the Pistons are using a lineup that makes sense.
2. Inside Presence. The Celtics will be playing without Kevin Garnett. Without him, reserve Leon Powe is their only big who can score.
3. Stuckey. The Eastern Washington product appeared to find his rhythm, his jump shot, and his confidence in the first game he did not have to defer to have Iverson. Rajon Rondo is an excellent defender, so this should be a good test of whether Stuckey’s last game was a sign that he has emerged from his slump, or merely a one-game blip on the radar.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Boston's Backcourt. For the past several seasons, the Pistons have entered most matchups with a major edge in talent in the backcourt. Against Rondo and Ray Allen, that will not be the case this afternoon.
2. Sunday Blues. The Pistons are 1-10 on Sundays this season. Ouch.
3. Paul Pierce. Pierce is exactly the type of player who gives Tayshaun Prince trouble at both ends of the court. Prince dominates smaller players because of his ability to post them up and contest their shots on the other end. Against a bruising forward like Pierce, Prince will likely be outmuscled for position on both ends of the floor.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 105, Boston 95
Notes:

• The Pistons have beaten all six division leaders. No other team can make that claim.
  Michael Curry sure looks like a much better coach without Iverson. This does not excuse the fact that he has handled Iverson terribly – both in terms of minutes and play-calling – but the Pistons should give Curry a chance without Iverson next season. If Curry struggles next season, then Dumars needs to find a replacement.
• Walter Herrmann provided a spark in the first half with 11 points on 4-4 shooting.
• The Pistons played suffocating defense down the stretch. During the final six and a half minutes, they limited Boston to eight points on 2-7 shooting.
• RIP Hamilton was awesome. 25 points on 12 shots to go with nine assists for the man who never should have been forced to sit in favor of Allen Iverson.
• 105 points in a low possession game for the Pistons. The ball was moving, the jump shots were falling, and the whistle was blowing (40 free throw attempts) for Detroit.

Read more...