Pistons vs. Magic, 3.09.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (31-30) vs Orlando Magic (46-16)
Spread: Magic -1
My Pick: Pistons by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. The Magic('s) Number. The puns have not started to bore me quite yet. The Pistons have eliminated the Magic from each of Orlando’s last three playoff appearances (2003, 2007, 2008). Detroit has also won 18 of the last 23 regular season games between the two.
2. Better Backcourt. Rodney Stuckey and RIP Hamilton should have the upper hand against their counterparts on the Magic – Rafer Alston and Courtney Lee. Hamilton should be especially dominant; he has scored at least 31 points in each of his last three games against Orlando, including two playoff wins.
3. Letdown Game. After Orlando’s big win over the Celtics yesterday, there may be a bit of a letdown in terms of intensity tonight.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Durable Dwight. In past season’s Dwight Howard’s production has tailed off in the second half of the season. Not this year. Howard’s monthly splits show no signs of decline.
2. Marcin Gortat. If the Pistons try to neutralize Gortat with Kwame Brown, they will lose that matchup. Instead, they should counter Gortat with a more athletic player.
3. The Deep Ball. Orlando’s offense relies on threes, a shot which the Pistons have not defended well this season. Detroit held Orlando to 4-19 from long range in their last meeting. A repeat of that defensive effort will be necessary tonight.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 98, Orlando 94
Notes:

• The biggest lead for either team all game was six points. The Magic never led by more than four.
• Antonio McDyess was huge. His play compensated for a Rasheed Wallace injury. Wallace did not play after the first quarter.
• Kwame Brown played great. He was awesome defensively and made five of six shots. With that said, his presence offensively had its drawbacks when Orlando was able to clog the paint. Fortunately for the Pistons, RIP Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince hit tough jumpers.
• The Pistons overcame 29 Orlando free throws by dominating the glass and the turnover battle. Detroit had 15 offensive rebounds to Orlando's six and seven turnovers compared to Orlando's 15.