Pistons vs. Heat, 3.22.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-34) vs. Miami Heat (36-32)
Spread: Pistons -2
My Pick: Pistons by 6

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Win:

1. Road Trouble. The Heat will be playing the final game of a road trip that has started 0-3. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games.
2. Said Who? In ESPN’s Daily Dime, Mark Jackson states: “I think the Heat are clearly closer to competing for a championship, and if you asked both Dumars and Riley, they would have to agree with me.” I think he is clearly wrong, especially regarding Joe Dumars' opinion. Miami wasted its potential cap space on Jermaine O’Neal, is looking at a draft pick in the late teens, and has no one outside of Wade and Michael Beasley with the talent to be above average NBA starter. Other than that, Championship here they come!
3. Board War. Miami is last among probably playoff teams in rebound rate. Detroit has been awesome on the glass during the last several games. That trend should continue today.

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Lose:

1. Sunday. The Pistons are an embarrassing 2-11 on Sundays.
2. Wear and Tear. Eventually, the heavy minutes Tayshaun Prince and Antonio McDyess have been playing will affect their play.
3. Dwyane Wade. Wade is dealing with an injured hip, but if he can play, he can dominate. Wade has played the best basketball of anyone not named LeBron this season.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 96, Miami 101
Notes:

• This was one the most exciting, well-played games Detroit has been involved in all season.
• In a vacuum, Dwyane Wade is awesome. Compared to other NBA shooting guards, Wade is easily the best. Kobe Bryant wishes he had Wade’s athleticism.
• Jamario Moon treats the hardwood like a trampoline.
• Proof steals are a terrible measure of defense: Mario Chalmers tallies four times as many steals per minute as Tayshaun Prince yet Chalmers was the worst defender on the court while Prince was the best.
• Jermaine O’Neal scored two clutch baskets, but otherwise played very poorly on both ends of the floor. How does someone his size pull down only one defensive rebound in 34 minutes?