Pistons at Mavericks, 3.17.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (33-32) at Dallas Mavericks (40-27)
Spread: Mavericks -5.5
My Pick: Pistons by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Winning Opponent. The Pistons are 4-1 in their last five games against teams with a winning record. Going back to early February, Detroit is 2-4 in its last six games against teams with losing records.
2. Hurting Howard. Howard is expected to be sidelined. Without him, Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry are the only reliable scoring options for Rick Carlisle.
3. Pit Stop. The Mavericks are technically at home, but tonight’s game is sandwiched between two road trips for the Mavs. In terms of travel schedules, this will feel like a road game for both teams.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Sheed’s Calf. The Pistons will miss the mercurial big man if he is unable to play. Jason Maxiell and Kwame Brown are fine as the third and fourth big men. The problems arise when they each have to move up a slot in the pecking order.
2. Jason Terry. Terry can light it up off the bench for Dallas. Without Iverson, the Piston bench lacks anyone who can do the same.
3. Brandon Bass. When Jason Maxiell faces undersized power forwards who can match his energy level, Maxiell comes up short more often than not. Since the start of 2008, in three games each against Bass and Paul Millsap, Maxiell has averaged 5.7 points and 4 rebounds per game while his counterparts have contributed 15.3 points 6.2 rebounds per contest. Bass went off for 18 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block when the Mavericks visited the Palace earlier this year.

Update: RIP Hamilton is out tonight. Arron Afflalo will start in his place. Stuckey and Prince will need to have huge scoring nights for the Pistons to be competitive.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 101, Dallas 103
Notes:

• The Pistons lost by only two despite a 15% difference in field goal accuracy. The Pistons kept the game close by limiting turnovers (6) and dominating the glass (17-4 edge in offensive rebounds).
• I’m coming around on Will Bynum. He hit a few jump shots during a strong second half and has been great the past few games. It will be tough to find playing time for both Iverson and Bynum during the playoffs, but Bynum is at least forcing Curry to think about ways to get him into games.
• Afflalo deserves consistent minutes until further notice.
• The Mavericks had a convenient answer to the Pistons’ fourth quarter run: Dirk Nowitzki. He was unstoppable all game.
• The Pistons, on the other hand, struggled to find an answer for Brandon Bass on the pick and pop.