Phenomenal Freshmen

The current rookie class is loaded. It is shaping up to be the deepest rookie class in recent memory. The rookies almost defeated the sophomore for the first time in the history of the Rookie Challenge last night. Here’s a breakdown of the impact players in the current rookie class.
(The players and groups are listed in order of how much value I project each player to have in 2011)

Potential Stars

Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago Bulls, (16.12 PER, 1st pick) – The top pick in the draft is leading the Bulls in minutes. He is the present and the future for the once proud franchise. He has the talent to join the likes of Deron Williams, Devin Harris, and Tony Parker as the best young point guards not named Chris Paul.

Greg Oden, C, Portland Trail Blazers, (17.87, 1st in 2007) – The top pick in the 2007 draft is considered a rookie this season because he missed last season with an injury. Oden is already a rebounding monster. If he can develop a few post moves, he has all-star talent.

O.J. Mayo, SG, Memphis Grizzlies, (15.54, 3rd) – Mayo is an incredibly gifted shooter. He already leads the Grizzlies in scoring and should continue to do so for years to come. There is talk of him moving to point guard, but he is probably better-suited to be an off guard. He has the total package at that position.

Building Blocks

Kevin Love, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves, (17.70, 5th) – Love has also been an outstanding rebounder during his rookie season. He is incredibly skilled, but lacks the athleticism to defend elite forwards. Despite his shortcomings, Love’s combination of rebounding ability, strength, and all-around offensive game will allow him to be a valuable NBA player for years to come.

Eric Gordon, SG, Los Angeles Clippers, (14.44, 7th) – Gordon is the only rookie in the conversation with Mayo as far as elite shooters go. The former Hoosier has a picture-perfect stroke. He can also put the ball on the floor and get to the basket. Gordon has been asked to carry a bit too much of the load on a disastrous Clipper team, but he has acquitted himself nicely.

Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder, (16.11, 4th) – Westbrook is uber-athletic. He needs work on his jump shot, but he has the physical skills to be an elite guard in this league. He joins Kevin Durant and Jeff Green to form possibly the best trio of 22 and under players this league has ever seen.

Brook Lopez, C, New Jersey Nets, (17.05, 10th) – Lopez has exceeded expectations more than any other player in the lottery. He is already a solid NBA center at the tender age of 20. Between Lopez and Harris, the Nets are set for a long while at the two toughest positions to fill.

Michael Beasley, SF, Miami Heat, (15.67, 2nd) – Part of the reason the Heat were willing to deal Shawn Marion is that they feel Beasley is ready to take on a larger role. Beasley is ridiculously talented, but there are questions about his defense and shot selection. If he can maintain his scoring output while improving his efficiency, he could soar to the top of this class.

Quality Starters

Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies, (16.09, 48th in 2007) – Gasol has played so well that he has made the trade for his older brother look somewhat respectable. The 24-year-old is among the plethora of quality rookie centers.

Jason Thompson, PF, Sacramento Kings, (13.52, 12th) – The man Joe Dumars allegedly wanted for the Pistons has shown flashed of brilliance on the court. He has cooled after a quick start, but he should be able to form a dynamic frontcourt with Spencer Hawes as the Kings rebuild.

D.J. Augustin, PG, Charlotte Bobcats, (14.45, 9th) – Any rookie point guard who earns trust and praise from Larry Brown has to be taken seriously. Augustin is lightning quick. He should improve quickly under Brown’s tutelage.

Good Backups

Rudy Fernandez, SG, Portland Trail Blazers, (15.55, 24th in 2007) – The comparisons to Manu Ginobili were inevitable for the gifted Spaniard. He has been a dynamo off the bench for Portland. If Brandon Roy continues to block him from the starting lineup, he will compete for Sixth Man of the Year honors regularly.

Marreese Speights, PF, Philadelphia 76ers, (21.06, 16th) – The fact that he ranks this low says heaps about the depth of this rookie class. Speights’ per-minute numbers are awesome. The Florida product will have the opportunity to prove that he can maintain his production in extended minutes now that Elton Brand is on the shelf.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, SF, Milwaukee Bucks, (11.84, 37th) – Mbah a Moute plays great defense and is a strong rebounder. He struggles to do much offensively, but he should stick in the NBA for a decade.

Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers, (17.48, 17th) – Hibbert has been a poor fit on the up-tempo Pacers, but he has been effective in limited minutes. The centers playing in front of Hibbert – Jeff Foster and Rasho Neterovic – are both 32, so Hibbert should have a chance to carve out a larger role in future seasons.

Courtney Lee, SG, Orlando Magic, (10.92, 22nd) – Another player who should benefit from a recent injury, Lee should see time at point guard with Jameer Nelson out. Lee is an excellent defender in the mold Arron Afflalo.

Rotation Players

George Hill, PG, San Antonio Spurs, (12.28, 26th) – Hill has struggled with his shot, but has been solid in other areas for the Spurs. With Gregg Popovich’s help, Hill should develop into a strong backup behind Tony Parker.

JaVale McGee, PF, Washington Wizards, (16.97, 18th) – The Flint, Michigan native has been a bright spot during an otherwise dreary season in Washington. He is long and athletic, but still has plenty of room to improve on both ends of the court.

Nicolas Batum, SF, Portland Trail Blazers, (11.64, 25th) – Batum has had ample opportunity to strut his stuff while Martell Webster tries to come back from injury. The Frenchman can shoot the three and defend. If he can add anything else to his repitorie, he has serious potential.

Jerryd Bayless, PG, Portland Trail Blazers, (10.89, 11th) – The fourth Blazer to appear on this list has been woefully inconsistent. He has the physical tools to produce in this league. It remains to be seen if he can put those tools together.

J.J. Hickson, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers, (14.40, 19th) – Hickson is another player who Dumars was rumored to be interested in. His role should expand as Ben Wallace’s athleticism continues to deteriorate.

Mario Chalmers, PG, Miami Heat, (13.36, 34th) – The former Jayhawk has been forced into a starting role with the Heat. He has a great outside shot, but otherwise has not shown enough to warrant a permanent spot in the starting lineup.

Anthony Morrow, SG, Golden State Warriors, (15.57, Undrafted) – Morrow has shown a deft touch from outside, but he would struggle to replicate his per-minute numbers without the Warriors’ run-and-gun system.

Others to Watch

These players have either been inconsistent, lacked minutes, or some combination of the two.

Ryan Anderson, PF, New Jersey Nets, (13.05, 21st)
Kosta Koufos, C, Utah Jazz, (15.62, 23rd)
Anthony Randolph, PF, Golden State Warriors, (15.52, 14th)
Danilo Gallinari, SF, New York Knicks, (13.69, 6th)
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers, (12.90, 35th)
Joe Alexander, SF, Milwaukee Bucks, (10.52, 8th)
Darrell Arthur, PF, Memphis Grizzlies, (9.65, 27th)