Catching Up: Dumars Says “No” to Rajon Rondo

Reports circulated last week that the Pistons turned down a Celtic offer of Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen for Rodney Stuckey, RIP Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons apparently rejected the deal without much hesitation, but the deal is much too appealing to have merited such little consideration.

The current Piston roster is nowhere near contention. Adding Ben Gordon and either Carlos Boozer or Charlie Villanueva (a likely summer plan for Joe Dumars) would put the Pistons in the playoffs, but leave the team well short of beating Cleveland or Orlando. The aforementioned players are all poor defenders and neither Stuckey nor Hamilton would do much to compensate.

Part of the appeal to the deal would be the Pistons’ ability to upgrade from Stuckey to Rondo at point guard. While Stuckey has the potential to be a star, Rondo is already there. Both point guards are 23, but Rondo’s PER was four points higher last season. Rondo is also among the best defensive guards in the world.

The other benefit of the trade would be financial. This may be a tough pill for Piston fans to swallow, but given the right offer, the Pistons should jump at an opportunity to rid themselves of two players, Hamilton and Prince, set to earn big bucks in their 30s. Hamilton is 31 while Prince will turn 30 this season. Hamilton and Prince are on the payroll for roughly 23 million combined in 2011, followed by 12.65 million per season for Hamilton through 2013. Meanwhile, Ray Allen’s contract expires in 2010.

Maintaining the status quo ensures a half-hearted push toward relevance for the next few seasons while Hamilton and Prince fade toward retirement. The prescient move would be to aim for long-term success and shoot for an even higher ceiling. Removing the remaining overpaid players from the previous era would be a necessary step to do so. The Pistons would have to give Rondo a contract extension beginning in the 2011 season – a season in which Stuckey will still be on his rookie contract – but the overall financial ramifications of the deal would still strongly favor the Pistons.

Assuming the Pistons give Rondo a contract extension of roughly 12 million per season, the Pistons would create roughly 15 million dollars in additional cap space for the summer of 2010. Through this trade, the Pistons would have Rondo, whichever free agents they acquire this summer, and enough cap space to be a serious player in the much-ballyhooed summer of 2010. With the right maneuvering, Dumars could forge a foundation that could contend into the next decade.

While the deal appears attractive on the surface, there are legitimate concerns on Detroit’s end. There have been questions about Rajon Rondo’s character. Pairing him with Michael Curry may not be a smart fit, as Curry did a poor job managing difficult personalities last season. Also, for the deal to be worthwhile, the Pistons will have to find a player willing to take their money and worthy of earning it on the free agent market.

While the above concerns are legitimate, the Pistons need to at least be open to any and all possibilities for reshaping the roster. For the Pistons to return to elite status, Dumars must either drastically overhaul the roster or add a superstar. Swapping perimeter players with Boston accomplishes the former and puts the team in position to achieve the latter during the summer of 2010.

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A Two Step Path to Contention

Since I spent my last two posts criticizing Dumars for the Iverson trade, I think that it is only fair that I offer some solutions. Plus, nothing is more fun for the average sports fan than playing “armchair GM” and coming up with preposterous trades that have no chance of actually happening. Without further ado, here is the moderately realistic plan that I propose to get the Pistons back into contention.

Step 1: Trade Tayshaun. Tayshaun Prince is probably the best and most valuable player on the Pistons. He has no real weakness compared to plenty of strengths and he always plays smart. He is a very good defender, a good long range shooter, a solid post up offensive player, and on broken plays he excels at shooting mid-range jumpers over defenders as the shot clock winds down on. Prince is a borderline all-star in his prime who, as a 28 year old with a reasonable contract, has significant trade value. It might be time for the Pistons to cash in.

When Larry Brown and Flip Saunders ran the show in Detroit, the Pistons almost exclusively used a set half court offense that relied upon timing and execution. Chauncey Billups would walk the ball up the court, the Pistons would run a play that used most of the shot clock and more often than not, the end result was a high percentage shot. Prince’s game has also been very methodical and under control. The slow, execution-based offenses were perfectly suited for his game.

Michael Curry emphasizes a very different approach to offense. Instead of asking his players to walk the ball up the court and set up a play, Curry implores his team to attack quickly. Under Curry, the Pistons are more of a fast break team that tries to take advantage of defenses that have not had time to set up entirely. This style does not suit Prince’s game and many times this season, Prince has slowed down the offense in order to get into a set reminiscent of the offenses of old. If the Pistons are to embrace Michael Curry’s ideals, Prince may have to go.

Here are three possibilities for trading Prince, listed in order of how desirable I consider each deal for the Pistons.

Trade Possibility A: Tayshaun Prince to Philadelphia for Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, Willie Green, and Jason Smith. (Trade Machine View)

Last season, the 76ers surprised pundits by making the playoffs with an inexperienced team. Over the summer, the team added Elton Brand in an attempt to solidify their defense and rebounding, while giving them a reliable offensive option in half court sets. So far, Brand is struggling to mesh with the up-tempo athletes that dominate Philly’s rotation. By swapping Young for Prince, the 76ers would add a second reliable offensive option as well as a lockdown defender who could potentially make Philly one of the elite defensive teams in the league. Prince is a much better fit alongside Brand than Young, and along with Miller and Dalembert, the 76ers would have a team much better suited to excel in the half court on both ends of the floor. By making this trade, the 76ers would be either the third or fourth best team in the East, depending on what one thinks of the Magic.

As for the Pistons, Thaddeus Young would be a perfect fit in Michael Curry’s system. The Piston lineup that has screamed “Michael Curry basketball” has included Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, RIP Hamilton, Jason Maxiell, and Amir Johnson. When those five players are on the court together, they pressure the ball, trap aggressively, and create fast break opportunities on offense. Young is a perfect fit for that style of basketball.

He is a natural small forward who is quickly developing an outside shot, but excelled in last season’s playoffs by making hustle plays and attacking the offensive glass. He is also capable of playing power forward, a position where Curry surely would utilize him in small ball lineups.

Marreese Speights is talented rookie big man whose bulk would allow him to complement either the skinny Amir Johnson or the undersized Jason Maxiell in the frontcourt. Willie Green would be able to return to Detroit, where he grew up, although he has proven to be a marginal player with an unfriendly long term contract that the Sixers would love to dump. Jason Smith showed promise as a rookie, but his career has been derailed by a devastating knee injury. He would be included in the deal strictly for salary cap reasons. If the Pistons struggle this season and Young continues to develop, Speights may need to be taken out of the trade in order for Philadelphia to accept.

Trade Possibility B: Tayshaun Prince to the Lakers for Trevor Ariza, Jordan Farmar, Chris Mihm, and a spare part signed for 1.05 million TBD. (Trade Machine View)

The Lakers would add another star to their already impressive starting lineup. The Lakers, Celtics, and Cavaliers are the three elite teams in the NBA this season and this trade would be just what the Lakers need to push themselves ahead of the class. A seven man core of Fisher, Bryant, Prince, Gasol, Bynum, Vujacic, and Odom would be as good as any the NBA has seen in a long time. While the Lakers are enamored with Farmar and Ariza, the opportunity to replace Radmanovic with Prince in the starting lineup should be too enticing to pass up.

Detroit would add two players who fit Michael Curry’s system perfectly. Ariza is the type of aggressive athlete Curry covets and – with the exception of the three point shot – would provide many of the same skills as Young. Farmar would be a perfect backup to Stuckey at point guard and the two could also play together. Mihm is merely being included for salary cap reasons.

Trade Possibility C: Tayshaun Prince to Utah for CJ Miles, Ronnie Price, Kosta Koufos, and Matt Harpring. (Trade Machine View)

I’m not certain if that deal can work as presently constructed due to Miles’ base year compensation status, but spare parts can be included if needed. The deal makes obvious sense for Utah. They have been looking for a star player to man one of the wing positions for years and Prince would fit the bill. He would essentially take up the minutes that Miles and Harpring combine to play and would provide a major upgrade for the Jazz. Brevin Knight is more than capable of taking over backup point guard duties from Price, while Koufos is a project that Utah can afford to sacrifice.

On the Pistons side of the things, this deal would bolster the team’s depth at the expense of its star power. Miles had a breakout season last year and has been ever better this season. He is a solid all around player at small forward and should develop into an above average starter. Price is a serviceable backup point guard, which is a position the Pistons will need to fill after Iverson is let go and Stuckey moves into the starting unit. Price and Miles do not add up to fair value for Prince, so including Koufos would be a must if Dumars is to accept. Harping has been a very good role player throughout the decade, but with Prince, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver and Andrei Kirilenko manning the wings, Utah would have little need for his tough play. His contract needs to be included for the contracts to match up.

Step 2: Be patient and only sign players (such as Rasheed or any available free agents) to one year deals in the summer of 2009. Then, in the summer of 2010, hope that either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire can be convinced to take Bill Davidson’s money.

If the Pistons simply made the one of the above trades and did nothing else, their roster entering the 2010 season would look something like this:

PG: Rodney Stuckey, Jordan Farmar/Ronnie Price/Will Bynum?
SG: RIP Hamilton, Arron Afflalo
SF: T. Young/T. Ariza/CJ Miles, W. Sharpe
PF: Amir Johnson, J. Maxiell
C: _______, M. Speights/K. Koufos/K. Brown?

By making the moves suggested above, the Pistons would have plenty of available cap space for the summer of 2010, some of which will be needed to re-sign Amir Johnson. The only way to complete that roster would be to add a stud at center. The Pistons would have the flexibility to offer a maximum contract and there are plenty of stars who will be on the market that summer. The two that make the most sense for the Pistons are Amare Stoudemire and Chris Bosh. Each of their teams could be in terrible shape entering that summer and if they want to win, there are plenty of reasons that the two young stars should consider Detroit.

In Stoudemire’s case, the appeal is obvious. Phoenix could be a disaster zone 18 months from now. Shaq, Grant Hil, and Raja Bell will be done, Steve Nash will be a free agent nearing the end of his career, and Nash and Stoudemire are the only players on the current roster who should be starting in the NBA in 2011. If Stoudemire wants to compete for a Championship, he will want to get out of Phoenix. In Detroit, he would be the focal point of the offense – which he very clearly desires – and his ability to attack the basket would fit perfectly with Michael Curry’s approach. However, because of his shortcomings on defense, he is not the best case scenario signee for the Pistons.

Chris Bosh is just as lethal as Amare offensively, except he also brings his A-game on the defensive end of the floor. Bosh is already one of the ten best players in the NBA and he still has room to grow. There is a good chance that he will try to join forces with LeBron, either in Cleveland or with one of the New York teams, but if not, the Pistons would love to have him.

By following that plan, the Pistons could quickly re-emerge as contenders – a status they lost when they dealt Billups.

(Note: Anyone who has read my previous posts is probably wondering how I can write that the Pistons’ chances of landing Bosh or Amare are slim and then advocate a plan based on getting one of those players. I stand by my belief that the team’s chances of landing one of the stars is less than 50-50 and I do not think it was wise of Dumars to trade Billups – an elite point guard – for cap space that may or may not help land a start two years down the road. With that said, the Pistons absolutely need a replacement for Rasheed in the frontcourt and Kwame Brown is not the answer. The Pistons have no internal options and are unlikely to find such a player late in the draft, so the best they can do is hope to lure a star free agent.)

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One Month Later: A Look Back on the Iverson Trade (Part II)

If Joe Dumars did trade Billups for Iverson in order to facilitate a championship run this season, he appears to have committed his greatest blunder since drafting Darko Milicic. At this stage of their careers, Chauncey Billups is simply a better basketball player than Allen Iverson.

Comparing the two on defense is almost comical. Billups is a good, steady defender while Iverson is one of the worst defensive players in the NBA. Stats cannot tell the whole story on defense, but they do provide some insight. So far this season, the Pistons allow an additional 5.7 points per 100 possessions with Iverson on the court compared to when he is off the court. The Nuggets allow 1.4 points fewer points per 100 possessions with Billups on the floor. Opposing point guards have posted an 18.9 PER against Iverson this season, while Billups has held point guards to a 13.4 PER. Iverson has been even worse in his limited time trying to guard shooting guards.

Subjectively, Iverson’s defense has been every bit as bad as those stats suggest. While on the ball, Iverson lacks the strength to fight through picks. Off the ball, he is focused on jumping into passing lanes which has produced occasional steals and frequent open looks for the man he is supposed to be guarding. In his first three weeks as a Piston, Iverson was lit up by Devin Harris (38pts), Beno Udrih (18), CJ Watson (17), Mo Wiliams (25), Rajon Rondo(18), Randy Foye (23, 14ast) and Ramon Sessions (21). Even in the Pistons past two games, against Portland and San Antonio, the team clearly played its best defense with Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo matching up against opposing guards.

While no one expected Iverson to be an upgrade on the defensive end, the hope was that he could provide a boost on offense. The evidence suggests otherwise. On a points per possession basis, the Pistons were sixth in the NBA offensively in each of the previous two seasons. This season, when Iverson has not been on the court, the Pistons have scored 113.7 points per 100 possessions, a total higher than any team in the NBA so far. With Iverson on the court, that number drops to 104.3, which would be near the league average. Billups’ team has been an astounding 16.9 points per possession better offensively when he is in the game.

Allen Iverson’s biggest problem offensively is turnovers. Iverson has committed 3.1 turnovers per game as a Piston, nearly double Billups’ 1.6 mark in Denver. Iverson is also a much less efficient scorer than Billups. Iverson has a 52.2% true shooting percentage on the season, which pales in comparison to Billups’ 59.1%. Detroit’s top scorer in recent years – RIP Hamilton – has also been adversely affected by the arrival of Iverson. RIP averaged 20 points per game in the four games before the team acquired Iverson, but has averaged less than 15 points per contest alongside the future hall of famer.

Part of the reason the Pistons have struggled so much with Iverson can be attributed to an adjustment period. With that said, as Isaac Newton explained: “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.” If the Pistons are struggling due to an adjustment period, we should see the same thing with Billups in Denver. There are problems with Iverson that patience and acclimation will not fix.

It’s far too early to call the deal a bust for the Pistons. The team does have a chance, albeit not a great one, to land either Chris Bosh or Amare Stoudemire in 2010 if it is able to preserve its cap space. Also, Joe Dumars is concerned with the product the Pistons have on the court in the playoffs, so judging players based on the regular season is somewhat unfair. I just fear that with Iverson taking over for Billups, there will be fewer playoff games than usual for Dumars to judge.

(Stats courtesy of 82games.com and ESPN.com)

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One Month Later: A Look Back on the Iverson Trade (Part I)

Joe Dumars must have a plan. Dumars always has a plan. This time, I’m just struggling to see it.

One month ago, Dumars traded the face of the franchise – Chauncey Billups – to the Denver Nuggets for Allen Iverson. Antonio McDyess and Cheikh Samb were also sent to Denver in the deal, but McDyess is set to return to Detroit and Samb is, at best, a project capable of developing into a poor man’s Mikki Moore. As a result, the deal was essentially just a swap of Billups for Iverson.

When news of the deal first broke, I was shocked. One month later, I’m as confused as ever. There are three possible reasons Dumars could have made the deal.

One possibility is that Dumars was simply trying to ratchet up ticket sales by injecting excitement into a stale product being offered in a dreary economy. I think it is safe to quickly dispel that possibility. Dumars knows the only way to consistently sell tickets is to produce a winner. The trade did lead to a temporary spike in ticket sales, but if the team is made worse either in the short or long run, those gains will quickly be negated.

Another possibility is that Dumars was hoping to improve the team’s future outlook by creating financial flexibility. This theory suggests that Dumars did not believe that the opening day roster could win a championship, thus he opted to re-build around his younger players. Suffice it to say that I’m not a huge fan of trading Chauncey in a salary dump. The Pistons were good enough to win 55-60 games this year and were among the top five teams in the league with Billups on the roster. Making a move simply to dump Billups’ reasonable contract does not make sense unless there is a player acquisition on the horizon.

If this were the case however, then the only way for the Pistons to improve would be to allow Iverson and Rasheed Wallace to walk. The Pistons would then have the cap space to add a player who helps the team more than Billups. While soon-to-be free agents LeBron, Amare, Wade, and Bosh are all fun names to toss around, is there really any chance that one of those four comes to Detroit? I don’t buy it. Not with the city’s lack of glamour and poor climate.

If the Pistons are looking toward the future, they need a big man to replace Rasheed – unless of course they can get their hands on LeBron, in which case they can worry about positions later. They could try to bring Mehmet Okur back, but I’m not sure how likely that is. He will be 30 when he signs his next contract and has a nice situation in Utah. Shawn Marion and Lamar Odom will both be free agents and either could join Prince as a forward in a small ball frontcourt, but that would still leave the Pistons with a hole in the middle. Other options include Boozer (don’t get your hopes up) and David Lee (is he really an improvement on Maxiell and/or Amir Johnson?). If the Pistons can get their hands on a superstar or a big man who they can pair with Amir, I take back everything in this column and concede that Dumars is a genius two steps ahead of the game. Otherwise, the “look toward the future” rationalization of the trade appears flawed.

The third, and most likely, reason that Dumars pulled the trigger is that he felt the Pistons are better positioned to contend for a championship with Iverson than with Billups. Check back for Part II, in which I will explore the logic behind such a suggestion.

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