Pistons vs. Bobcats, 4.05.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (36-40) vs. Charlotte Bobcats (34-42)
Spread: Pistons -2
My Pick: Pistons by 6

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Road Woes. The Bobcats have been much better at home than on the road this season. Even with their recent hot streak, the Bobcats have only won two of their past six road contests. On the other hand, the road team has won each of the first three meetings between these teams this season.
2. Boris Diaw. The Bobcat offense is usually only as efficient as its versatile forward. In his last five games against Detroit, Diaw has averaged a measly 6.2 points per game on 32.4% shoting. Over his career, he averages just 6 points per game against Detroit, but several of those games took place when Diaw was an Atlanta Hawk trying to find his footing in the league.
3. If It Ain’t Rough... In recent years, a favorite cliché among Piston plays has been “If it ain’t rough, it ain’t right.” The implication is that when it matters most and the Pistons backs are up against the wall, they play their best. That will be put to the test today, as the Pistons play their most important regular season game in a long, long time.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. 2009. Since the calendar flipped, the Pistons 17-29, while the Bobcats are seven games better, at 23-21. That says it all about how this season has gone for the Pistons.
2. Back to Back. The Pistons have dropped nine of the last ten games they have played on the second half of a back to back. The Bobcats had the day off yesterday and will arrive at today’s game with younger, fresher legs.
3. Rotation Stability. The Bobcats have one of the most clear-cut eight-man rotations in the NBA. Occasionally one or two additional players see spot minutes, but the same eight players see the bulk of the minutes every game. In contrast, the Piston rotation has been in constant flux all season. (Depending on Raja Bell's calf, Cartier Martin could crack the rotation for the time being. Still, under Larry Brown, each player's role on this team is more clearly defined than is the case with any other team in the league.)

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 104, Charlotte 97
Notes:

• Will Bynum! Bynum almost singlehandedly secured a Piston victory in the most important game of the regular season. He scored a franchise record 26 points in the fourth quarter and he needed just six field goal attempts to do so. The man who could not find a place in the NBA a season ago now leads the Pistons in PER by a wide margin.
• Two Piston guards carried this team to victory. Those Piston guards were not Rodney Stuckey, RIP Hamilton, or Allen Iverson, but rather Bynum and Arron Afflalo. Afflalo’s inconsistent jumper was dead-on last night and his defense keyed a 15-3 fourth quarter run.
• The downside to losing Hamilton to an ejection was that with Bynum and Afflalo on the court, the Bobcats were able to play their two best guards – D. J. Augustin and Ray Felton – together. Neither is capable of guarding Hamilton, but with Hamilton out, Charlotte was able to play its five best players down the stretch. RIP’s inability to maintain his composure was unacceptable given the importance of the game.
• Rasheed played well and showed no ill effects of playing 37 minutes. He should be fully healthy just in time for the playoffs.