Pistons at Pacers, 4.11.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (39-40) at Indiana Pacers (34-45)
Spread: Pacers -3
My Pick: Pistons by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Streaking. The Pistons have won three in a row. With Iverson sent home, the Pistons appear to be hitting their stride just in time for the playoffs.
2. Stability. Michael Curry announced that his recent rotation will be his permanent rotation. While I wish Amir Johnson was a part of that rotation, the clearly defined roles will benefit the players.
3. Rodney Stuckey. In the two games Stuckey started against Indiana, he averaged 25.5 points, 7 assists, 6.5 rebounds, and 2 steals. He also posted a ridiculous 80.4% effective field goal percentage in those games (50% is roughly average).

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Offensive Firepower. The Pacers have scored at least 117 points in all four of their April games. The Pistons need to dictate the tempo and slow the game down in order to push Indiana out of its comfort zone.
2. Danny Granger. The fourth year forward can score with the best of them. He missed time with a foot injury, but he is averaging 29 points per game since returning to the starting lineup 11 games ago. He has lit up the Pistons for 33 per contest this season, although that is partially a result of Michael Curry’s decision to use a small ball lineup earlier in the season. With the small ball lineup, Granger was able to dominate the much small RIP Hamilton.
3. Finishing Strong. The Pistons may be finding their rhythm, but the same could be said of the Pacers. Indiana has won six of nine.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 102, Indiana 106
Notes:

• Jason Maxiell continues to outperform Amir Johnson on the stat sheet even though Johnson consistently outplays his counterpart for the simple reason that there is no stat for forcing the opposition to take a difficult shot. Maxiell was -14 while Johnson was +9, thus widening the already enormous gap between the players’ +/- numbers.
• The Pistons were hammered on the glass in the first half, when they allowed 14 offensive rebounds. In the second half, the Pistons committed to boxing out and limited Indiana to one offensive board.
• One night after doing a masterful defensive job on the Nets perimeter players, the Pacers got 81 points from their four perimeter players.
• The Pistons spent far too much of the game conforming to Indiana’s preferred helter-skelter pace.
• Roy Hibbert should be a quality rotation player for the next decade. He had six offensive rebounds and four blocks in just 20 minutes.