Pistons vs. Nets, 4.10.09

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (38-40) at New Jersey Nets (32-46)
Spread: Pistons -8
My Pick: Pistons by 10

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

1. Flat Finish. The Nets have lost 11 of their last 16. This team is counting down the days until it can add a forward in the lottery. The forward rotation of Ryan Anderson, Yi Jianlian, Trenton Hassell, Bobby Simmons, and Eduardo Najera is as bad as it gets in the NBA.
2. Road Trouble. The Nets have lost nine consecutive games played outside the tri-state area (they did win a road game in that stretch, but it was a short bus ride away against the Knicks). Also, the home team has won each of the first three games in the season series between the Pistons and Nets.
3. Contain Carter. Vince Carter has had success against the Pistons in the past, but much of that success occurred when Tayshaun Prince had to defend Richard Jefferson. With Jefferson gone, Prince has held Carter to just 11.3 points per game in their three matchups this season.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

1. Devin Harris. Harris has torched the Pistons to the tune of 25.3 points and 7.3 assists per game this season. He has taken an absurd 43 free throws in those three games. Removing Iverson from the defensive equation should help matters, but Rodney Stuckey and to a lesser extent, Arron Afflalo have had their problems with Harris.
2. Momentum? Despite their recent struggles, the Nets played one of their best games of the season Wednesday in Boston. Playing against the defending champs, the Nets built a double digit lead early and had a chance to take the lead in the final seconds.
3. They Won’t. The Pistons are playing at home against an inferior team with playoff seeding at stake. It would be inexusable for the team to not win this game easily.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 100, New Jersey 93
Notes:

• The bench won this game for Detroit. Kwame Brown, Arron Afflalo, and Jason Maxiell all played very well. Will Bynum was outstanding.
• Bynum scored at least 20 points for the fifth time in 12 games. He is far more confident in his jump shot than he was earlier this year. As a result, he is consistently converting open looks that he typically passed up or missed earlier in the season.
• Even ignoring the off-court issues, is there any rational argument that Iverson is a better basketball player than Will Bynum? If the consensus is that Iverson is worth the mid-level exception, would that make Bynum worth 7-8 million on the open market? (My answer: No, Iverson doesn’t warrant the mid level exception, although Bynum would.)
• Despite the unremarkable final score, this game was an offensive showcase on both ends. Only a slow pace skewed the final numbers. The teams combined to make more than half of their shots, better than 40% of their threes, and committed just 15 turnovers.
• Rodney Stuckey has taken heat for his defense at various points this season, but he deserves his share of credit for holding All Star Devin Harris to one point.
• Rookies Ryan Anderson and Chris Douglas-Roberts played better than any other Nets last night. Anderson appears to provide everything the Nets hoped to receive from Yi Jianlian. CDR’s ability to get to the hoop and finish was positively Will Bynumesque.