A Reason to Hope

Last night’s devastating loss to Chicago has relegated the Pistons to a playoff series with LeBron James. It also clinched Detroit’s first below-.500 season since 2001. As mediocre as the Pistons’ final record may be, the current incarnation of the Piston roster has actually been performed very well. As David Berri explained, Allen Iverson is an even worse basketball player than people realize.

• Iverson left Philadelphia and the Sixers got better.
• Iverson was expected to transform the Denver Nuggets into a title contender. Denver, though, never got out of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.
• Iverson left the Nuggets and the team got better.
• Iverson has arrived in Detroit, and the team got worse.
  –David Berri, Wages of Wins

This season, Iverson played in 57 games (three of which were with Denver). His team was 25-32 in those games. Denver has excelled without Iverson. Before too much of that success is attributed to the arrival of Chauncey Billups, consider how well the Pistons have played when Rasheed Wallace has played, but Iverson has not.

This season, in the 17 games when Rasheed Wallace has played while Iverson has not, the Pistons are 13-4. In a sample size large enough to warrant one’s attention, the Pistons have won more than three fourths of their games. The chart below lists the results of every game the Pistons have played with their starting center and without their alleged superstar. (Road games are in italics, losses are in red.)



In those 17 games, the Pistons have a scoring margin of +6.1 points per game. Extrapolated over the course of an 82-game season, a team with that scoring margin would be expected to win roughly 58 games. To a certain extent, the Pistons benefitted from a less than intimidating schedule, however they did earn road wins against Boston and Orlando, as well as home wins over Denver and Orlando. Of the four losses, three came against playoff teams and none were by more than five points.

This probably does not mean much for the playoffs because LeBron James is ridiculously awesome. It also can only shed so much light on the Pistons’ future considering that Wallace’s days in Detroit are probably coming to end in the near future. What it does say is the team the Pistons bring into the playoffs is probably the fourth-best in the East.

In a season where so much has gone wrong for the Pistons, the team is not that far from returning to contention. Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, and Amir Johnson should each continue to improve. Will Bynum and Kwame Brown should be better next season when there is more certainty regarding their roles. RIP Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince should remain effect for several more seasons, even though the decline phase of their careers has begun in subtle ways.

The only concerning components of the Piston rotation are Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, both of whom could potentially depart this summer. If Amir Johnson is given the opportunity, he is capable of taking up the slack for Dice. The drop-off in jump-shooting and veteran savvy would be compensated for with Johnson’s superior athleticism and defense.

If the Pistons can replace Rasheed Wallace, the team may find itself hosting a first round playoff series as soon as next season. The task may be easier than it sounds given the state of the economy. Players like Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap will struggle to find reasonable offers, while several team owners will be looking to trade away valuable players in exchange for financial relief.

The Pistons lost more than half of their games and are likely headed toward a very brief postseason appearance. Regardless, the Pistons sans Iverson are better than people realize. A return to prominence may not be as far off as common wisdom would suggest.