A Hall of Fame Backup?

The end of small ball seems imminent. The Pistons have played their best basketball in weeks during their past two games, in large part because an injury to RIP Hamilton forced the team to use a traditional lineup.

Michael Curry has noticed that the Pistons play significantly better defense with two big men on the floor. After yesterday’s game, Curry talked about how much better Rasheed Wallace plays when he has a second big man on the floor. Tayshaun Prince believes that both he and RIP Hamilton have suffered unnecessary wear and tear when they have to defend bigger players. It is obvious to coaches, players, and fans that the Pistons play their best defense with bigger lineups on the court. Curry hinted that a return to a more traditional lineup may be on the way. It appears that Amir Johnson will get the nod at power forward. Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, and Wallace all have secure spots in the starting lineup. The question is which of the Pistons’ all star shooting guards will be sent to the bench.

In a vacuum, the answer would probably be Hamilton. Allen Iverson is better at creating his own shot and is a future hall of famer still capable of huge scoring nights. However, when other factors are taken into consideration, it makes sense to start Hamilton.

The Pistons have plenty of scoring with their starting unit regardless of who starts at off guard. Stuckey, Prince, and Wallace are all quality offensive players who need the ball to be as effective as possible. Iverson’s game is predicated on dominating the ball and attacking defenses on his own. That style of play does not mesh well with players like Stuckey and Prince, but would be perfect alongside backups like Arron Afflalo, Jason Maxiell, and Antonio McDyess. Those three players can make open jumpers, but struggle to create their own offense.

Hamilton, on the other hand, is quickly developing chemistry with Stuckey. Hamilton averages almost four more points per game in games that Stuckey starts at point guard. RIP gets most of his shots within the flow of the offense and has succeeded alongside Prince and Wallace for years. Stuckey and Johnson would essentially fill the roles once held by Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace so the starting unit’s offense should be fairly similar to what the Pistons had earlier in the decade.

Defensively, if the Pistons were to start Stuckey and Iverson, they would be at a size mismatch at both guard positions. Iverson is undersized against almost anyone, while Stuckey would be playing out of position if asked to guard shooting guards. With Hamilton on the court alongside Stuckey, that problem would be solved.

When the Pistons replaced Amir Johnson with Kwame Brown in the starting lineup, part of Michael Curry’s motivation was the need to get bigger after they downsized from Billups to Iverson. If the Pistons go back to Johnson, it would only make sense to compensate by starting a big backcourt in Stuckey and Hamilton.

Another consideration is the future of this franchise. Iverson is probably a one year rental for the Pistons. Hamilton recently signed a contract extension and will be a big part of the team’s future assuming that he is not traded. If the Pistons falter in this season’s playoffs, whichever all start is coming off the bench will probably be an unhappy camper. Star players usually only accept lesser roles when a team is winning (see Owens, Terrell). A peeved Iverson can look for a new team next summer, but an alienated Hamilton is a problem the Pistons should try to avoid.

It is not quite a done deal that the Pistons will revert to a more traditional lineup, but the evidence is promising. Sending the team’s only surefire future Hall of Famer to the bench is best way for the Pistons to regain their status as contenders in the East.

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RIP Assists from the Trainer’s Room

The Pistons may have caught the best injury break of the season yesterday. A groin injury forced RIP Hamilton out of the lineup and allowed Amir Johnson to start in his place. While Hamilton’s injury is not considered serious, the ramifications could have a huge positive impact on the Piston’s season.

In yesterday’s post, I argued that reverting to a more traditional lineup would be beneficial for the Pistons. The case for a more traditional lineup centered on the improved rebounding and defense that a bigger lineup would provide.

In the eight games that the Pistons played small ball, they were outrebounded by an average of 5.6 rebounds per game. Last night, with Johnson starting, the Pistons won the board war by nine. The Pistons also played one of their best defensive games of the season, allowing the Bucks to score just 76 points on 30.4% shooting.

Milwaukee has a solid team and the Bucks were favored in last night’s contest. Thanks in large part to Johnson, the Pistons had a victory locked up by the end of the third quarter. Johnson had 11 rebounds – including 5 on the offensive end – and blocked four shots on the night.

Based on the way that Johnson has played in the last two games, Michael Curry has no choice but to drastically increase Johnson’s minutes. If Hamilton’s injury forced Curry to realize the value of a player like Amir Johnson, it may very well have been a blessing in disguise.

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Small Ball Leads to Bad Basketball

Eight games ago, the Pistons brought Antonio McDyess back onto the roster. McDyess essentially replaced Kwame Brown in the rotation and has provided a huge upgrade. Despite the improvement of the team’s second big man, the Pistons have not played any better in the last eight games than they did earlier in the season. The Pistons are 5-3 in that stretch, but only one win was by more than six points and the team played an extremely soft schedule.

There are other reasons the Pistons should have played well during that stretch. The team is more than a month into the alleged transition to life with Allen Iverson. Also, Rodney Stuckey has played the best basketball of his career recently. Despite all of the factors working in the Pistons’ favor, the team has continued to play mediocre basketball.

The culprit is a simple one: small ball. On the same day that McDyess returned to the team, Michael Curry altered the starting lineup to include Rodney Stuckey in place of a big man. While Stuckey has excelled as a starter, the team has struggled overall. The small ball arrangement has caused numerous problems for the Pistons, almost all of which could be fixed by reverting to a traditional lineup.

The biggest challenge facing the Pistons is rebounding. The Pistons have been outrebounded in every single game that they have used the small ball lineup. They have been outrebounded by an average of 5.6 rebounds per game during the eight-game stretch. Tayshaun Prince has done his part, grabbing 8.6 boards a game since moving to power forward. The problems arise with the rest of the frontcourt. RIP Hamilton has grabbed three rebounds per game over the last eight games. That production was fine when he played shooting guard, but will not cut it at forward. Rasheed Wallace inexplicably stopped rebounding after Thanksgiving. He averaged 9.5 rebounds per game in the team’s first 13 games, but has pulled down just 5.4 boards per game in the 14 game since the holiday.

The Pistons were a fairly average rebounding team before the switch to small ball. Extrapolated over a full season, their rebounding performance over the past eight games would place them amongst the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. The switch to small ball transformed the Pistons from a decent rebounding team into a horrible one.

Another mess created by small ball has occurred on the defensive end. With the current starting lineup, the Pistons face size mismatches at various positions against virtually every team in the league. Prince is not big enough to guard most power forwards. Against Utah, Prince was abused in the post by Mehmet Okur. Hamilton faces similar problems when the team plays bigger small forwards such as Danny Granger, who dropped 42 points against Detroit. The Pistons have enough defensive issues when Iverson tries to guard anyone. The last thing Michael Curry needed to do was compound the problem by playing three starters out of position.

The other major dilemma posed by small ball is the distribution of minutes. The Pistons cannot start Prince at power forward if they hope to play Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson significant minutes. Maxiell and Johnson are the team’s only talented young big men. Both are quality NBA players now and are a major part of the team’s future. Curry is doing a major disservice to the franchise if he squeezes either of those players out of the rotation.

Johnson did not play in six of the first seven games of the small ball era. Last night, he checked into the game late in the third quarter last night, with the Pistons trailing by one. Johnson immediately started contesting shots and crashing the boards. His energy helped trigger a 24-9 run. Iverson was exceptional during the stretch and was able to be aggressive because he played alongside Johnson and Afflalo, players who defend, hustle, and do not need the ball to contribute. Curry left the lineup in the game even after it appeared to run out of gas and the results were not pretty. However, it was obvious from that sequence that Amir Johnson needs to play and that his game complements Iverson’s.

In a way, Michael Curry’s hand has been forced by the make-up of his roster. With Iverson, Hamilton, and Prince, the Pistons have three all-star talents for two positions on the wing. It is the coach’s responsibility to determine which of those players is best-suited for a bench role and then convince that player that an individual sacrifice will benefit the team. Ideally, the Pistons should bench Iverson in favor Johnson or Maxiell.

The Pistons are drifting through the regular season. They play well some nights, but poorly on far too many. Most NBA teams would love to have the talent that the Pistons boast. Those other teams would probably be wise enough to deploy that talent correctly.

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Fastbreak Buckets 12.24.08

-Two of the biggest differences between Flip Saunders and Michael Curry were supposed to be that Curry would play young players and Curry would stop his players from complaining to the officials. Two months into the Curry era, the results have been hit and miss, with more misses than hits.

Young guards Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo have been given plenty of minutes. Stuckey’s development has been the biggest success of Curry’s coaching career thus far. On the other hand, young bigs Jason Maxiell and especially Amir Johnson are not playing nearly enough. Johnson is racking up healthy DNPs despite posting an impressive PER and the best net +/- numbers of any Piston other than Rasheed Wallace.

Also, to date, Curry has failed in his attempt to stem the complaining to officials. Wallace and RIP Hamilton are picking up technicals at a manic rate. The Pistons are fifth in the NBA in technical fouls.

-The first step toward fixing a problem is realizing that one exists. Coach Curry appears to be headed in the right direction with both of the aforementioned issues. He told The Detroit News that he plans to pull Allen Iverson and Tayshaun Prince midway through the first quarter in favor of a bigger lineup. He then plans to re-insert Iverson and Prince as part of a bigger lineup to start the second quarter. The moves should allow Maxiell and Johnson to see minutes at power forward while Will Bynum would effectively be eliminated from the rotation. These move makes sense. In the same article, there is talk that the Pistons are trying to cut back on technical fouls.

-Stuckey tracker: In the 13 games since Thanksgiving, Stuckey is averaging 15.5 points, 7.0 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 2.0 turnovers per game. He has made 55.6% of his field goal attempts and nine three pointers for an effective field goal percentage of 58.7%. His PER is at 19.2 on the season and is surely in the mid 20s since Thanksgiving. The man can flat out ball.

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Fastbreak Buckets: 12.19.09

-Stuckey tracker: In the ten games since Thanksgiving, Stuckey is averaging 13.4 points, 7.9 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 2.1 turnovers per game. He is shooting 53% from the floor, and has made half of his 14 three point attempts. Stuckey has also played very solid defense for the Pistons. While he will probably never be an elite defender, he is an above average defensive point guard and still has room to improve.

One clear benefit of the Iverson trade was that it opened up the point guard role for Stuckey. In theory, this should expedite his development as he should get a full season’s worth of on the job training. On the flip side of that coin, Stuckey no longer has Billups as a tutor and the trade has resulted in a rotation that will squeeze Amir Johnson’s minutes.

There was a stretch during November where Stuckey was often the worst player on the court. He was pressing at times and appeared hesitant at others. He had a miserable time trying to stay in front of Devin Harris against New Jersey and then was set back by a pair of medical problems. He suffered a dizzy spell during a game against Boston and took a hard fall after a collision with Shaq in Phoenix. It is impossible to know how much of his struggles can be traced to those two instances, but there is a good chance they contributed.

For whatever reason, Stuckey turned a corner in his development three weeks ago and has not looked back yet. As a result of his recent strong play, Stuckey’s PER is up to 17.34, a hugely impressive number for a 22 year old who fell to the middle of the first round in 2007. Stuckey is not a star yet, but he appears to be well on his way.

-Pistons fans should not get any crazy ideas a result of the team’s three game win streak. The Pistons squeaked past a mediocre Indiana team at home, barely held on against a bad Charlotte team, and then beat a horrible Washington team at the Palace. None of the three victories were particularly impressive, although there were encouraging signs. Stuckey and Iverson both had their best weeks of the season, while RIP Hamilton played some of his better basketball since the trade. Antonio McDyess also played well and showed no ill effects from his five week hiatus. This weekend’s games against Utah and Atlanta should be a much better indicator of this team’s ability.

-In the four games since the Pistons switched to a small ball lineup, they have been outrebounded by an average of 7.8 rebounds per game. Poor rebounding is a recipe for disaster in the playoffs and the Pistons must find a way to correct this problem if they hope to advance in this season’s playoffs. Amir Johsnon leads the team in rebound rate* and last season finished behind only Nazr Mohammed, who is no longer on the roster. Johnson also finished with the team lead in 2007. He has not played in the last four games.

(*Rebound rate is the percentage of missed shots a player rebounds while on the court)

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Allen Iverson: Better Off the Ball

Allen Iverson put together his best stretch of the season this past week. The move from point guard to shooting guard has been a big reason for his success. Despite impressive assist numbers, Iverson does not belong at point guard. True point guards – such as Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul, and Steve Nash – excel at controlling the pace of the game, feeding a hot hand, and keeping their teammates involved in the offense. Those players consistently make good decisions on the court and possess the leadership skills necessary to lead a team.

For all of his gifts, Iverson has never shown the ability manage games. Iverson excels at making plays for others with his ability to break down defenses; however he thinks like a playmaker instead of a distributor.

Rodney Stuckey, on the other hand, has shown excellent game awareness since being inserted into the starting lineup. Stuckey has opened games by getting his teammates involved. Later in the game, when Stuckey’s teammates have found a rhythm, Stuckey begins to assert himself. He is averaging ten assists per game since he was named a starter. The Pistons’ point guard duties should be in good hands with Stuckey for the rest of this decade and most of the next one.

With Stuckey running the show, Iverson has been brilliant offensively. In the four games since Stuckey became a starter, Iverson is averaging 19.5 points and 5.5 assists per game with a 58.3% effective field goal percentage*. Iverson has been liberated from the burden of playing point guard and the early returns are positive.

*Effective field goal percentage is determined by (FG+0.5*3P)/FGA. It is a measure of field goal percentage that accounts for the additional point that results from a made three pointer.

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Dice On A Roll

The Pistons dodged a major bullet when Antonio McDyess elected to return to Detroit. McDyess claims that he understands the Pistons’ motivation for the trade and is not upset with Dumars, but Dice had to be slightly perturbed that the team considered him somewhat expendable. Dumars could not have been certain that McDyess would turn down teams like Boston and Cleveland that offered him more dollars and a better shot at a title. Dumars should be thankful he did.

While the Pistons surely have missed Billups since the trade, they missed McDyess nearly as much. During the 17 games the Pistons played without McDyess, he was essentially replaced in the rotation by Kwame Brown. The drop-off in production was drastic. Dice is superior to Brown in virtually every aspect of the game. He is a far better shooter and pick and roll defender. Dice also holds an edge over Brown in terms of rebounding, shot blocking, and finishing plays around the basket. The one area where Brown may have an edge is defending the league’s behemoths, but players like Shaq and Andrew Bynum are few and far between. Brown will likely be called up again when the Pistons face a team with a dominant post scorer. Until then, he should be rooted to the bench where he can try to learn a thing or two from watching McDyess.

Since returning to the team, Dice is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game while playing just over 23 minutes per night. He has made better than 59% of his field goal attempts and has made all five of his free throws. McDyess is a stabilizing force on the court and has been a reliable interior defender during his five seasons in Detroit. He is also the best rebounder in the Pistons rotation – Amir Johnson is the team’s best rebounder, but he has not seen the floor since McDyess’s return.

McDyess is not starting games this season – instead he is finishing them. McDyess has been on the court for the majority of the fourth quarter in each game since his return. It is nearly impossible to play sturdy defense with a small ball lineup and rebounding has also been a major issue for the small ball Pistons. Thanks to the return of McDyess, the Pistons no longer have those problems down the stretch. The Pistons crunch time front court includes McDyess, Rasheed Wallace, and Tayshaun Prince – all players who defend and rebound well at their positions. The combination is a big reason that the Pistons have been able to close out their last three opponents. If the Pistons are able to win 50 games for an eighth consecutive season, McDyess’s decision to return will be a big reason why.

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