The Answer: Fewer Dumb Shots

82games.com has done some very cool stat tracking in recent years. One of the stat breakdowns within shooting stats is a breakdown of shooting by shot clock situation. This is useful for a variety of reasons.

First off, one can compare teams and learn about their tendencies. For example, the open court, Mike D’Antoni led Knicks take 37 percent of their shots during the first ten seconds of the shot clock. The Pistons, in contrast, take only 33 percent of their shots during the first ten seconds of the shot clock. Based on effective field goal percentage* (eFG%), the Knicks have been much more successful than the Pistons on those early shots. On the other hand, the Pistons have been more efficient with their half court offense. The results are evident in the stats, which show that the Pistons have a higher eFG% in the later part of the shot clock.

The other benefit of the stat breakdown is that it conveys information about individual players. A player like Tayshaun Prince may appear to be a poor shooter based on a sub-par eFG%, but when one digs a little deeper, a different story is told. Prince takes 28% of his shots during the last four seconds of the shot clock – an incredibly high amount – and converts those shots at a 43.2 eFG%. What this means is that Prince is often called upon to bail the Pistons out at the end of the shot clock and he does a very good job of doing just that. It also shows how Prince can be one of the best offensive players on the Pistons despite a middling effective field goal percentage.

On the other end of the spectrum is Allen Iverson. The shot clock usage shooting breakdowns for the Pistons and for Allen Iverson are below.




What this shows is that Iverson is taking a high percentage of his shots – 36 percent – early in the shot clock. However, Iverson has been horribly inefficient with those shots. Typically, players only take shots in the early part of the shot clock if they have a layup, dunk, or wide open look. As a result, most players have an early shot clock eFG% in the fifties, if not higher. Amir Johnson, for example, has made 69.4 percent of the shots he has taken in the first ten seconds of the shot clock. Excluding Iverson, the Pistons have roughly a 56 eFG% on shots early in the shot clock.

Iverson’s mark of 40.6% is simply unacceptable. He is clearly taking far too many difficult shots early in the shot clock. This is not a fluke based upon a small sample size either; Iverson has taken well over 200 shots early in the shot clock. He needed to make about 40 more of those in order to post an eFG% on par with the rest of his team.

In the first ten seconds of the shot clock, a player still has time to kick the ball out to a point guard and run a play. Through a play, the Pistons are almost certainly capable of creating a far better shot than one that yields only a 40.6 eFG%. The fact that Iverson has opted to take such a high quantity of low percentage shots implies selfish play.

The usually astute Kelly Dwyer noted on Monday that the Pistons are struggling this season:

And Detroit, whatever it is, they just don't have it. This team continues to lose, even when it plays well, even when the whole team is interested.
…
You can't blame this on Allen Iverson. Don't even start. Detroit's issues run far deeper than that.

He argues that all of the Pistons problems cannot be pinned on Iverson. Maybe so, but it surely does not help that the team’s highest paid player and supposed offensive whiz is killing the team with horrendous decision making and ineffective shooting.

*Effective Field Goal Percentage equals (FG+0.5*3P)/FGA. The statistic adjusts field goal percentage to account for the additional value of a made three pointer.
(Thanks to 82games.com and Basketball-Reference.com for stats, tables, and formulas)

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The Eternally Half Full Glass

The Pistons are up to their old tricks. For the fifth consecutive season, the organization has proven to be masters of the positive spin. The Pistons won a championship in 2004. Ever since, regardless of the situation, the Pistons always make it seem like everything is going as planned and they are positioning themselves to win a championship. In each of the four previous seasons, their projections were overly optimistic. It is hard to imagine that this season will be any different – unless of course one consults one of the Pistons.

In 2005, the defending champion Pistons were not dominating the regular season like many had hoped. Not to worry; the Pistons had a plan. They simply had to wade through the regular season, ensure that key players were healthy and fresh for the playoffs, and win just enough games to earn a respectable seed for the playoffs. Then, come playoff time, they could cruise to a second consecutive championship. The plan backfired in the playoffs. The Pistons did not have home court advantage against Miami and survived a seven game series thanks in large part to an injury to Dwyane Wade. In the finals, the Pistons were not as fortunate and lost game seven in San Antonio. The lack of home court advantage hurt them in both series.

The next season, the Pistons allegedly had a solution. First, the overly controlling Larry Brown was out as coach. Flip Saunders stepped in and was prepared to loosen the reigns. The theory was that a veteran squad like the Pistons needed a few simple directives from a coach and could handle the rest on their own. The Pistons also believed that they were doomed by a lack of home court advantage the previous season. As a result, they were determined to do everything possible to achieve the league's best record. The Pistons accomplished that goal by winning a franchise record 64 games. Once again, the plan flopped. In order to post the league's best record, the Pistons wore out their main players. The five starters and Antonio McDyess combined to play over 80 percent of available minutes – an insanely high total for just six players. As a result, during the playoffs, the Pistons starters appeared run down while the Pistons' bench was not prepared to contribute. The Pistons flamed out against Miami that season.

The Pistons claimed to have a solution for 2007. They would scale back the intensity during the regular season in order to preserve themselves for the playoffs. Also they would develop young reserves Jason Maxiell and Carlos Delfino to inject youth into the lineup while strengthening the bench. The plan seemed to work, until Flip Saunders abandoned his bench during the playoffs. Maxiell and Delfino had combined to average more than 30 minutes per game during the regular season, but they saw a combined, cumulative total of just 23 minutes during the three losses in Cleveland. Cleveland upset Detroit and the Pistons were sent home early again.

Last season, Saunders assured fans that he had learned from his mistakes. Also, the team was finally starting McDyess meaning that, for the first time in ages, the Pistons had five starters who could play effectively on both ends of the court. However, once the playoffs began, Saunders reverted to a seven man rotation. During the Pistons’ 17-game playoff run, Theo Ratliff was eighth in total minutes with 131. Partially as a result of his continued inability to trust his bench, Saunders was fired after the Pistons fell victim to the Celtics.

In 2009, the spin-doctors are back to work. The Pistons have been a combination of inconsistent and mediocre since Iverson joined the team nearly three months ago. Every time they appear to turn a corner – whether with big wins against the Cavaliers and Lakers or with the seven-game winning streak that began in December – they play horribly during the subsequent games.

Nonetheless, yesterday’s Detroit News featured an article titled “Will Pistons' funk serve as blessing?” The argument is that the Pistons have not faced adversity in a long time. In the long run, they will be better off by learning from the current adversity, the theory goes. Maybe it is time the Pistons quit trying to look at the glass as half full and start trying to fill up the metaphorical glass with better basketball and more wins. After all, the articles about them playing great are much more fun to read than the ones about why it is great that they are not.

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Fastbreak Buckets 1.27.09

Today’s edition of fastbreak buckets is a blockquote special.

-Interesting tidbit in the Monday’s Boston Globe. (H/T TrueHoop)

[Ray] Allen started wearing [a sleeve] when he was in a horrific slump during the Detroit series last spring. He wears the sleeve on just his left arm - sort of like Michael Jackson without the creepiness.
"Rip Hamilton grew his fingernails long and he was scratching me," explained Allen. "I needed the sleeve to shield me from those nails. And I've stayed with it."

Those are the type of tactics that earn a player “wily veteran” status from his fans and “dirty player” labels from his opponents. One thing that cannot be questioned is RIP’s willingness to do whatever it takes to win.

-Anonymous scouts are to sports what tabloids are to pop culture. They can both create unsubstantiated nonsense which appears as fact in print. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey, who usually does a much better job with his NBA coverage, had two quotes worth of anonymous rubbish in his Sunday column. (H/T Need4Sheed)

"[The Pistons] are playing with no emotion," says a long-distance viewer. Allen Iverson "has killed the team's spirit with his style of play."

I have noticed an inefficient offense, inconsistent defense, and poor coaching, but if a “long-distance viewer” can detect a dead spirit, maybe he knows something the rest of us do not.

So hooked on economics is Dumars, an agent testifies, he was prepared to deal treasured Tayshaun Prince for Stephen Jackson (or maybe it was Ron Artest) whose contract was set to terminate after next season.

It was one thing for the Pistons to trade Billups for cap space in an attempt to balance the roster; the Pistons had two quality point guards in Billups and Stuckey, but needed frontcourt help. Dumars elected to trade Billups for impending cap room which he will try to use to lure a big man, thus balancing the roster. Prince is a completely separate issue. If the Pistons were to trade Prince for cap room, they would have cap room and a major hole at small forward to fill. They would probably have to use that cap room to sign a small forward – probably a small forward very much like Prince. Dumars chimed in with his thoughts on the assertion.

"That's absolutely false! I'm not trading Prince, period," Dumars fumed.

-Piston players have made some disturbing comment about their coach recently.

Iverson, to The Detroit News, on the Pistons’ poor defense against Houston:

"Have you talked to MC yet?" Allen Iverson asked, referring to coach Michael Curry. "He should have the answers. He knows better than me why we're not getting it done."
…
"If it looked like we were playing a zone, and we weren't, that's not good," Iverson said.

More from Iverson in today's Detroit News.

"I would be lying if I said I wasn't frustrated," Iverson said. "I just feel like I can offer more to the team. I can do more to help us win games, and when that opportunity presents itself, I will be right here to take the challenge."

Tayshaun Prince hinted at displeasure with the coaching staff in this Detroit News article. He said the Pistons need to stop worrying about coaching schemes and simply play better. Reading between the lines, if they need to stop worrying about coaching schemes, that implies that players currently are worrying about coaching schemes.

"At some point you have to put all that aside and not worry about the X's and O's and just do what you have to do defensively as far as taking a challenge. I don't think we are doing that in the first quarters."
…
"It's tough because you would think at this point we would have found our way and we haven't," Prince said.

Rasheed Wallace was slightly less subtle than Prince when he spoke with The Detroit News.

"I guess you can say we were confused early," said Rasheed Wallace, who voiced his displeasure to Curry twice early in the game. "We figured it out in the second half but by then it was too late."

Wallace on his lack of fourth quarter touches against Houston after scoring ten points in the third quarter.

"It wasn't my call," Wallace said. "Just got to go with the flow, I guess."

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Who Should Close? (Non-Tigers Edition)

Now that the Pistons seem to have settled on a starting lineup, Michael Curry faces an even more important question: which five players will be on the court to finish close games? In the first three games since Curry moved Hamilton to the bench, the outcome of the game has dictated the finishing lineup for him. The games against Toronto and Dallas were not close in the fourth quarter and the closing lineup was irrelevant. In the game against Houston, the Pistons trailed by 15 in the fourth quarter, so when the score tightened up, Curry elected to stick with the players who led the comeback.

Should the Pistons play a close game sometime in the near future, Curry will face an interesting dilemma. Two players – Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess – appear to be safe. They are the team’s best interior players and Curry values their defense, rebounding, and outside shooting.

The remaining three positions are less clear. Tayshaun Prince is the team’s best perimeter defender and probably its best overall player. He almost definitely should be in the game down the stretch.

RIP Hamilton has been the focus of the Pistons’ offense down the stretch for the past several years. Among returning Pistons, he was by far the most effective clutch* performer last season. Curry also promised Hamilton roughly 30 minutes per game. Hamilton has been entering games roughly nine minutes into each half, so he has to be on the floor the entire second and fourth quarters in order to reach the aforementioned 30-minute mark.

Allen Iverson has been the go-to guy down the stretch for the Pistons most of this year. He was acquired because of his ability to break down a defense – precisely the type of skill that is most useful at the end of close games, when defenses tighten up.

Rodney Stuckey is the best point guard on the team. He also appears to be the centerpiece Joe Dumars would like to build the team around. Since the Pistons seem to be making moves with an eye toward the future, the team needs to ensure that its youngest star gains experience in clutch situations.

Prince, Hamilton, Iverson, and Stuckey all have very compelling cases to be on the court when the game is on the line. There is no easy answer for Curry. As far as egos are concerned, the safest option – benching Stuckey – may very well be the worst option. Part of the reason the Pistons traded Chauncey Billups was that the team wanted Stuckey to take the reins of the franchise and receive on the job training. It would be foolish of the Pistons to expand Stuckey’s role, only to make him watch the most important moments of a game from the bench.

The strategy that makes the most sense is for Curry to ride the hot hand between Iverson and Hamilton. Whichever shooting guard is having a better game should earn the opportunity to finish the game. If either Stuckey or Prince is way off his game, there are situations where the struggling player should sit, however those two players are able to impact a game in so many ways that it would be difficult to take either out of a close game.

Neither Iverson or Hamilton will like the fact that they will occasionally be seated during crunch time. Hopefully they will understand that if the Pistons are going to accomplish something they have not done often lately – win – they need a balanced lineup that only has room for one of them on the court.

*Clutch is defined by 82games.com as any point in the 4th quarter or overtime where there is less than five minutes left and neither team is ahead by more than five points

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Midseason Report Card (Part II)

At 24-17 the Pistons have reached the mid-point of their season. That means it is time for midseason grades. Grades are based upon how well players have performed relative to expectations thus far in the 2008-2009 season. Click here for Part I, where I graded the starters.

Reserves

RIP Hamitlon: Hamilton has been the Pistons’ leading scorer for the last season so he showed a ton of humility in accepting a bench role, even if he might have done so begrudgingly. On the season, Hamilton has struggled without his partner in crime – Billups. His current scoring average would be the lowest since his rookie season. Hamilton was also worked over by a number of small forwards when he was asked to play out of position in small ball arrangements. The Pistons will now find out if he can be more productive as the focal point of the offense with the second unit. Grade: C

Antonio McDyess: The Pistons missed McDyess desperately during his league mandated 30-day wait to re-join the team after he was included in the Iverson deal. McDyess has lost considerable quickness since he signed with the Pistons in 2004, but he remains a reliable rebounder, post defender, and jump shooter. An underrated factor in the Pistons’ poor play this season is that McDyess is no longer starting and thus has had his minutes reduced. This may pay dividends in the playoffs if McDyess has fresher legs, but in the meantime the Pistons are a better team when McDyess is on the court. Grade: B+

Jason Maxiell: One of the worst consequences of small ball was that Maxiell was often squeezed out of the rotation. His minutes have been reduced, but his effectiveness has not wavered. When on the court, Maxiell changes games with his relentless rebounding and spectacular shot blocking ability. Maxiell is an undersized big, so he is a liability against certain post players. Otherwise, Maxiell is one of most productive Pistons and deserves at least 20 minutes per game to impact games. Grade: B

Arron Afflalo: With RIP Hamilton coming off the bench, Afflalo may struggle to see the court. When he does play, he has shown a vastly improved jump shot to pair with his already stellar defense. His poor playmaking abilities limit his effectiveness, but he is a valuable role player for the Pistons. His role should increase substantially next season, assuming that Iverson is not retained. Grade: B-

Kwame Brown: Brown played great defense against dominant post scorers including Shaquille O’Neal, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Tim Duncan. Otherwise, Brown has been completely useless. He is a disaster offensively who struggles to catch the ball, make free throws, or generally stay out of his own way. Brown is a serviceable fifth big man. Considering the ransom the Pistons paid for his services, it is safe to say they were hoping for more. Grade: C-

Will Bynum: Bynum has been a pleasant surprise for the Pistons. His role expanded when the Pistons traded Billups and moved Iverson to shooting guard, and Bynum has done an OK job at point guard. His jump shot is inconsistent and he is a liability defensively because of his size, but he has played well enough to earn a more permanent spot in the NBA. Grade: B+

Walter Herrmann: Herrmann was awesome the first week of the season, but has disappeared since. He excited fans with his three-point shooting and quirky forays to the basket, however his minutes were kept in check by an ability to stay in front of his man defensively. As his minutes waned, he lost his rhythm on his jump shot. He is now out of the rotation and probably on his way to a different organization by the start of next season. Grade: C-

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Midseason Report Card (Part I)

At 24-17 the Pistons have reached the mid-point of their season. That means it is time for midseason grades. Grades are based upon how well players have performed relative to expectations thus far in the 2008-2009 season. Today I’ll take a look at the starters. Check back this weekend to see grades for the reserves.

Starters

Rodney Stuckey: After a promising rookie season, there was hope that Stuckey would emerge as an elite backup for the Pistons. He struggled to find his rhythym during the first few weeks of the season, but he finished November strong and has not looked back. Stuckey earned a promotion to the starting lineup in December and he has risen to the challenge. The second year guard leads the Pistons in PER and has greatly improved his jump shot and his defense since his rookie season. Stuckey appears to be on the fast track to stardom. Grade: A-

Allen Iverson: Iverson came over in the much-discussed trade for Chauncey Billups. While it was clear that Iverson could not match Billups’ ability to defend or run an offense, the hope was that Iverson would be a superior scorer. So far, that has not materialized. Iverson is playing more minutes per game and taking more shots per game than Billups, but is averaging fewer points per game thanks to a huge disparity in true shooting percentage (59.1% for Billups, 51.0% for Iverson). Iverson has hit some huge shots (vs. OKC, at LAC) but also has missed his share of potentially game-altering shots (at POR, vs. CHA). Overall, Iverson has been a disappointment, but there is a chance he will begin to play better with the new lineup that should give him more opportunities to score. Grade: D+

Tayshaun Prince: When Prince was forced to play out of position at power forward, he struggled mightily. Thankfully, he has been returned to small forward. In the games that Prince has played small forward so far this season, he has been awesome. With Billups gone, Prince has emerged as the best player on the Pistons this season. Had he spent the entire season at small forward, there is a good chance he would be an all-star. He still has an outside chance to make the team if the East squad catches the injury bug. Grade: A-

Amir Johnson: Johnson’s minutes have yo-yoed up and down all season. Likewise, his production has been wildly inconsistent. He began the season as a starter and played fairly well as the starting line’s garbage man. Johnson was then moved to the bench in favor of Kwame Brown and his minutes and production both fell off – save for a strong three-game stretch to end November. Johnson was squeezed out of the rotation for much of December, but when an injury to RIP Hamilton allowed Johnson to re-enter the starting unit, he responded with two weeks of great defense, strong rebounding, and far too much fouling. Eventually the foul problems began to affect his performance. He is currently mired in an ineffective rut in which he has more fouls than points in January. Johnson recently returned to the starting lineup so it should be interesting to track his continued progress. Grade: B-

Rasheed Wallace: Wallace has played lethargic basketball for years, but he taken that to a new level this season. To say that Wallace appears to be going through the motions offensively would be generous. Occasionally he decides to saunter into the post, but more often he sets a screen or two and then drifts behind the three point line for the remainder of the possession. Wallace is an effective long-range shooter and he plays sturdy defense, but with a little intensity he could do so much more. Grade: B-

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Disaster in Dallas

The NBA team in the worst situation going forward may be none other than the Dallas Mavericks. The assertion may seem odd considering that the Mavs have won at least 51 games in each of the last eight seasons, including three seasons with at least 60 wins. The Mavericks are 24-18 this season and the cast of characters is mainly the same, so it may sound outrageous to compare them unfavorably to franchises like the Grizzlies and Clippers.

With that said, virtually every team in the league has a chance to make a playoff run this season, young talent, or impending flexibility to re-make the roster. The exception is the Mavericks. Dallas may approach 50 wins this year, but it is more likely than not to be the odd team out of the playoffs out West. There are nine good teams in the West this season and the Mavericks are the ninth best.

As far as the next couple of years are concerned, Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki are future hall of famers, but Kidd is a shadow of his former self and Nowitzki should start to decline soon, if he has not already. Josh Howard and Jason Terry are very good secondary players, but there is not enough around those two and Nowitzki to match up with the elite teams out West.

The team’s prospects going forward are even worse. Erick Dampier, Jason Terry, and Matt Carroll are all locked into preposterous long term contracts. The trio is owed a combined 28 million dollars in the 2011 season. Terry comes off the books that season, but Dampier and Carroll are on the hook for 15 million in 2012. Jerry Stackhouse also has a ridiculous contract; he’s set to make seven million this season and seven and a quarter million next year. As a result of those four contracts, the Mavericks have little ability to add to their core through trades or free agency any time in the near future.

That core may have maxed out its potential as a borderline playoff team with no chance of making serious noise in the playoffs. The trade of Devin Harris for Jason Kidd crippled the franchise. Harris has emerged as the best point guard in the Eastern conference this season, while Kidd has deteriorated into an average starter nearing the end of his career. This leads to the Maverick’s biggest problem.

The Mavericks have amassed less young talent than any team in recent memory. Among players younger than 28, only Brandon Bass belongs in an NBA rotation. Bass is an undersized big man in the mold of Jason Maxiell. After Bass, the team’s two most accomplished “prospects” are JJ Barea and Gerald Green. Both players have shown the ability to be competent offensively, but they are also poor defenders who project as no more than 8th or 9th men in a playoff rotation. Compounding the problem is the fact that Dallas will be drafting in the teens this year and traded away its 2010 first round pick to acquire Kidd.

To recap, the Mavericks are a borderline playoff team right now. They have little, if any, room for internal improvement. Their payroll is tied up with overpaid role players for at least the next three seasons unless the team moves Josh Howard of Dirk Nowitzki. If it does move either of the two, the Mavs would fade to mediocrity. The Mavericks will have a mid-first round pick this summer and have no first round pick after the 2010 season. Unless Mark Cuban can work a miracle, it is hard to imagine his Mavericks winning a playoff series any time in the next five seasons.

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Position to Succeed

I'm just focused on the 12 guys we have in uniform, trying to put them in a position to be successful out on the court and to win games.
–Michael Curry, via the Detroit Free Press

This a great point by Curry. It is a coach’s responsibility to put his players in a “position to be successful out on the court.” Is Curry practicing what he preaches? Which of the Pistons are in a better position with a small ball starting lineup of Stuckey, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace? Which would be better off if a traditional lineup of Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Johnson, and Wallace were to start games?

Rodney Stuckey: According to PER, Stuckey has been the Piston’s best offensive player this season. Among the Piston’s top-6 scorers, Stuckey is first in true shooting percentage. He is also the team’s best passer, so the more he has the ball in his hands, the better. Unfortunately, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace are all also scorers. When Stuckey plays alongside those four, he must focus on distributing instead of attacking. Stuckey averaged just 12.6 field goal attempts per game in the 12 games he started in a small ball lineup, compared to 15.4 shots a game when he started as part of a traditional lineup. Defensively, small ball hurts Stuckey. He is one of the better defensive point guards in the NBA, but alongside Iverson and Hamilton, he is often asked to defend shooting guards and small forwards. Stuckey has done well out of position defensively, but he is better-suited to defend point guards.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

RIP Hamilton: Defensively, this is no contest. Hamilton has no chance against many small forwards. Danny Granger and Kevin Durant, among others, have absolutely killed Hamilton. Hamilton is OK at defending shooting guards, but he has no chance against bigger forwards. Offensively, pairing Hamilton with Iverson is a simply a poor fit. Hamilton’s offense relies on ball movement, execution, and off-ball screens. Iverson is too small to set a pick and his game is predicated on dribbling and freelancing. Their games mix about as well as oil and water.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Tayshaun Prince: This is a full article where Prince explains that it is extremely grueling for him to deal with the physicality associated with playing power forward. Prince is not big enough to defend most opposing big men. Offensively, like Stuckey, Prince is one of the team’s best offensive players, but he is likewise the most likely to defer when he is on the court with four teammates who are also strong scorers. Prince has averaged 11.3 points per game when he starts at power forward and 16.0 points per game when he starts at small forward.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Rasheed Wallace: Wallace is much better defensively when he has a second big man on the floor. He is unable to defend the pick and roll the way he would like to when he does not have a second big man behind him to protect the paint and rebound. Offensively, Wallace spends most of the game spotting up for three-pointers regardless of who else is on the court.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Allen Iverson: Iverson is a low efficiency offensive player who is adept at creating shots, even though he has converted those shots at a low percentage this season. When he is taking shots away from Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace, he is hurting the Piston’s offense. When he plays alongside Afflalo, Maxiell, and McDyess, those players struggle to create their own shots and could benefit from the open looks Iverson can create. Defensively, Iverson will always be a disaster, but his impact might be less drastic if he is trying to defend backups.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Amir Johnson: Johnson is not much of an offensive player, but he is a strong defender and rebounder. In the starting lineup, the Pistons have enough offense that they could compensate for Johnson’s deficiencies in the same way that they played around Ben Wallace. Coming off the bench, it is hard to play Johnson alongside players like Afflalo and Maxiell, who also are best-suited to impact a game without the ball in their hands. Johnson also is excellent at attacking the offensive glass. Without Johnson, the Piston’s starting lineup is one of the worst offensive rebounding lineups in basketball.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Jason Maxiell/Kwame Brown: When the Pistons start Prince at power forward, it is difficult for Curry to find minutes for Maxiell and Brown. Both players have been racking up healthy DNPs lately. There would be minutes for at least one of the two in almost every game if the Pistons revert to a traditional lineup.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Antonio McDyess: Regardless of who starts, McDyess is usually on the court for 20-25 minutes per game and the Pistons rarely use a small ball lineup when McDyess is on the court.

Edge: Neutral

Arron Afflalo: Regardless of who starts, Afflalo usually does not enter the game until the Pistons have gone to a big lineup. Afflalo’s minutes may dip if the Pistons bring another shooting guard off the bench, but either way Afflalo should be part of a five man rotation for three spots on the perimeter, so there should be plenty of available minutes.

Edge: Small Ball

Will Bynum/Walter Herrmann/Alex Acker/Walter Sharpe: Regardless of who starts, none of these players has played well enough to earn regular minutes.

Edge: Neutral

Summary: The only Piston who even remotely benefits from small ball is Arron Afflalo. Even that is based on the possibility that his minutes would decrease if the Pistons revert to a traditional lineup. Of the ten Pistons in the rotation, eight would benefit if Michael Curry chooses a traditional lineup. If Curry meant what he said about putting his players in a position to succeed, he needs to start a traditional lineup.

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Rebound Like A Champion

Among the various problems with small ball is the complete inability of a small lineup to compete on the glass. While the Pistons typically only use a small ball lineup for a fraction of the games in which such a lineup starts, those few minutes are enough to put the team at a substantial disadvantage in the rebounding battle. This is bad news for the Pistons since each of the past 13 NBA Champions have been strong rebounding teams. The last team below average rebounding team to win the Championship was the 1995 Rockets, who tied for the 10th best regular season record before turning it on in the playoffs.


Here are the rebound rates for the top-three title contenders in 2009.


Here is a breakdown of the rebound rates for the Pistons in games they start a small ball lineup compared to games in which they start a traditionally-sized lineup.



*RR is rebound rate, the percentage of missed shots that a team rebounds. 50% is average.

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Fastbreak Buckets 1.14.09

-Amir Johnson can have a major impact on games when he is on the floor. If he plans to spend significant time on the court, he needs to learn how to avoid fouling. Johnson has been fouling at an obscene rate the last few weeks; he has at least four fouls in each of the 10 games since Christmas despite averaging just 21.1 minutes per game in that stretch. He has averaged one foul per 4.6 minutes of game time. The foul problems reached a new extreme this week when he committed ten fouls in 18 minutes during the last two games. Johnson’s production has also fallen off during the stretch, partly because early foul trouble has taken away from his aggressiveness.

Johnson needs to stop biting on pump fakes from potential jump shooters. Players like Tayshaun Prince and Tim Duncan have shown that one can play effective defense by closing out on shooters without jumping to block the shot. Johnson needs to take a page out of Duncan’s book and simply dare players to shoot over him. Johnson also has developed a bad habit of bumping players as they attempt to drive toward the basket. He needs to learn how to say in front of his man without making contact. Lastly, Johnson needs to do a better job of setting his feet on screens as to avoid the offensive foul and turnover associated with a moving screen.

-I have spent most of my recent posts discussing the starting lineup. Just to be clear on how many minutes I want each Piston playing, here is my ideal breakdown of minutes, by position. This breakdown only applies to close games when everyone is healthy.

• PG: Stuckey: 36, Iverson: 12 (with Prince serving as point forward)
• SG: Hamilton: 18, Iverson: 18, Afflalo: 12
• SF: Prince: 34, Hamilton: 14
• PF: Johnson: 20, Maxiell: 18, McDyess: 10
• C: Wallace: 30, McDyess:14, Brown: 4

Total minutes per player: Stuckey: 36, Iverson: 30, Hamitlon: 32, Afflalo: 12, Prince: 34, Johnson: 20, Maxiell: 18, McDyess: 24, Wallace: 30, Brown: 4. Will Bynum and Walter Herrmann would play in garbage time or if other players are hurt, playing poorly, or in foul trouble.

-Many Piston fans have been begging for a RIP Hamilton trade lately. While the move would alleviate the glut at shooting guard this season, the long term ramifications would be negative. Iverson is a one year rental, so if the Pistons trade Hamilton, they would be looking for a shooting guard this summer. Before his injury, Hamilton played well alongside Stuckey. He and Stuckey should be the backcourt of the future in Detroit.

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No Dice for Curry

Michael Curry explained why he reverted to small ball:

"It's a simple matter of getting your best five guys out there as much as possible," Curry said.
– ESPN.com

If Curry really wants his “best five guys” to start the game, he should keep Antonio McDyess in mind. PER is hardly a perfect stat (for example, it overvalues Allen Iverson’s steals, which usually occur when he gambles instead of playing sound defense), but it does give a good indication of how productive a player is offensively and on the glass. So far this season, Iverson’s PER is 16.09, Hamilton is at 15.67, and McDyess is at 15.2. According to those stats, the players are relatively close in terms of offensive production.

Defense, however, is another story. McDyess is one of the better defenders on the team and protects the paint when he is in the game. Iverson and Hamilton are the two worst defenders in the Pistons rotation. Overall, McDyess has been a far more productive contributor for the Pistons than either Iverson or Hamilton.

If a team with Stuckey, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace played against Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, McDyess, and Wallace, the latter squad would win upwards of 70 percent of the games. If Curry chooses to hurt the team by playing small ball so be it, just try not to lie to the fans about the motivation (egos).

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Site Move

The site is moving... sort of. You can now access this blog by going to www.ctbaaf.com . That address will re-direct people to the site. Eventually I would like to abandon the blogspot address, but in the meantime both addresses will work.

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Actions Speak Louder Than Words

Michael Curry has said all the right things. Well, he had said all the right things until “Curry said he'll start his small lineup of Rodney Stuckey and Allen Iverson in the backcourt, and Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace in the frontcourt.” (Courtesy of Ted Kulfan, The Detroit News) Here’s a look back at some of Curry’s smarter, but not necessarily as honest, statements.

Curry: I think the toughest is when you’re making lineup changes, especially when guys are doing everything that you ask them to do but maybe for the team’s sake you need to adjust their role. I think that’s always the toughest, but if you’re honest then I don’t think you have as much of a problem. No matter what, at certain times players are not going to like decisions you make. When I was a player, I was the same way. But they respect it knowing that you’re honest and truthful with them and that you’re doing the things that are best for the team and the organization to be successful.
– Keith Langlois, Pistons.com, 6/12/08

"Defensively we have been good in stretches when we have two bigs on the floor," coach Michael Curry said. "One of the things we give up with our small lineup is that inside presence. Not having that other big on the floor, teams attack even more on the inside. When they attacked today, even when they got around Amir or 'Sheed, the other big was there to protect the basket."
– Chris McCosky, The Detroit News, 12/27/08

"The big lineup makes us better defensively and at the end of the day we have to make sure we are good enough defensively," he said. "We know we can go to that small lineup if we have to. We are able to play both, so we will decide it game by game. But the small group has to get better defensively. It has gotten better but it isn't on par with what we can do with the big lineup."
– Chris McCosky, The Detroit News, 12/30/08

"We've been putting emphasis on (defense)," coach Michael Curry said after the Pistons held a team under 80 points for the second time in three games Wednesday. "It's just there's certain things certain lineups can't do."
…
"Amir made some mistakes (against the Nets), but because of his size and ability to rebound, he's really solidified things for us," Curry said.
– Chris McCosky, The Detroit News, 1/2/09

"I wouldn't expect them [Iverson and Hamilton] to like coming off the bench," Curry said. "Both have been starters their whole career. But the reality is, we've got good guys on this team and they are all willing to do whatever it takes for the team to be successful. Whatever decisions we make, is because we feel its the best thing for us to be able to get the most of everybody on the team, regardless if a guy likes it or not.

"They are going to be OK because the No. 1 thing is, they want to win."
– Chris McCosky, The Detroit News, 1/12/09

"We've seen just from the data in our games that we know defensively ... it's no secret when we got two bigs and (Tayshaun Prince) at the three-spot we're our best defensively, and at the end of the day that's normally what's going to drive most of our decisions," Curry said.
– Vince Ellis, Detroit Free Press, 1/13/09

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Curry Chooses Safe Path to Mediocrity

Michael Curry was hired because he allegedly would have the respect of his players. The theory was that, as a former player, he would do a better job communicating with his players than Flip Saunders. Today, Curry showed he does not have the respect of his players or the communication skills to make a tough, but necessary, decision. It appears that Curry is merely a player's coach more interested in appeasing egos than winning games.

Curry said he'll start his small lineup of Rodney Stuckey and Allan Iverson in the backcourt, and Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace in the frontcourt. -- Ted Kulfan, The Detroit News

The Pistons are a more successful team when they play a traditional lineup. Small ball is not effective. Curry should have benched Allen Iverson. Curry needs to bite the bullet, ruffle some feathers and sit one of his all-star guards. Until he does so, expect the Pistons to be no better than an average NBA team.

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Do the Right Thing: Bench Iverson

Michael Curry is giving every indication that there is room for only one shooting guard in the starting lineup. When RIP Hamilton returns from injury, either he or Allen Iverson is likely headed to the bench. The two shooting guards have both made numerous all-star teams and neither seems too happy about the prospect of watching the first few minutes of action seated by the coaches.

The motivation for bringing one of the two off the bench is clear – defense – but there is another question that is not being asked. Even if Hamilton is taken out of the equation, does Allen Iverson really contribute to the starting lineup?

At this point in his career, Iverson has clear strengths and weaknesses on the court. Iverson is better than most at creating offense; he is 66th among 322 qualified players in “usage rate” – the percent of a team’s possessions that a player uses, based on shots, assists, and turnovers. He also excels at getting to the free throw line. The latter skill has been especially valuable for a Piston team that rarely gets to the stripe. While Iverson’s ability to create open shots and earn free throw attempts is important, it is difficult to determine another strong point of his game.

His weaknesses, however, are more prevalent. While Iverson takes a lot of shots – a team-leading 15.2 per game – he does not make nearly enough to justify his shot selection. Iverson has made 40.9% of his field goal attempts and has the worst adjusted field goal percentage among the 12 Pistons usually on the active roster.

Iverson averages 5.5 assists per game, but his 2.7 turnovers a night negate that production. Iverson is a great ball handler who rarely has the ball taken from him, but he forces passes and often leaves his feet to pass – two habits that lead to his high turnover rate. Iverson is unable to contribute as a point guard, despite his dribbling skills, due to poor decision making. He is incapable of being a team’s floor general and therefore is relegated to playing shooting guard.

Partially due to the fact that Iverson is a shooting guard in an undersized point guard’s body, he is a disaster defensively. Iverson is badly undersized against nearly all of his opponents and usually has to defend point guards while his own team’s point guard checks shooting guards. On plays where Iverson switches or rotates onto a bigger player down low, he is completely helpless. When Iverson is able to match up against a player his size, he gambles far too frequently and struggles to stay in front of his man. Opponents also have little trouble rising up and shooting right over the 5’11 Iverson.

Iverson is still capable of contributing to an NBA team. His ability to free himself for makeable shots can be valuable when he is on the floor with defense oriented teammates. Unfortunately for Iverson, the Pistons starting lineup includes Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace, three players capable of creating offense more efficiently than Iverson.

The Pistons bench, however, struggles to score at times. Arron Afflalo, Jason Maxiell, and Antonio McDyess are all capable shooters, but none of the three is proficient at creating open shots. Iverson would complement that group well.

At this stage of his career, Iverson’s game most resembles that of players like Louis Williams, Ben Gordon, Leandro Barbosa, and a younger Monta Ellis. All of those players are undersized shooting guards and poor defenders who have excelled as offensive weapons off the bench. Iverson was a superstar throughout the bulk of his career, but he is no longer capable of leading a successful team anywhere but the lottery. As a complementary piece, however, he could be valuable. Allen Iverson is probably going to start in the all-star game next month. He should cherish that start because his days starting NBA games could be and should be over.

Update: Detroit Bad Boys hit the nail on the head:

No one wants to admit it, but at this stage in his career, Allen Iverson is nothing more than T.J. Ford without a conscience. A useful player who has his moments, but not one who should be shoe-horned into the starting lineup at the expense of a player who actually fits the offense, has a track record of success in the system and will still be a member of the team next year. -- Matt Watson, DBB

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Off the High Glass: Tayshaun Prince

“Off the High Glass” is a segment on CTBAAF where I profile one of the Pistons. Today, Tayshaun Prince goes under the microscope.

Tayshaun Prince is tied with RIP Hamitlon as the longest-tenured Pistons. Prince is in his seventh season, which has been a lot like his sixth, which was a lot like his fifth, which was a lot like the two before that. For the fifth consecutive season, Prince has started every game, averaged roughly 14 points per game, posted a PER close to the league average, and played stellar defense. Prince was taken with the 23rd pick in 2002 draft. Nearly all of the teams that passed on Prince wish they could have a do-over. Among 2002 first round picks, only Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire, and Caron Butler have come close to matching Prince’s production.

Offense: Prince has one of the most diversified offensive arsenals in the NBA. Among his many strengths, he is effective running the offense, shooting three pointers, and scoring in the post. Prince has a high basketball IQ and is a proficient ball handler so the Pistons are able to use him as a point forward. This ability has been especially useful this season because Rodney Stuckey is the only reliable point guard on the roster.

However, Prince is best suited to man the wing as a forward. Prince is 6’9 and possesses exceptionally long arms which allow him to attack defenses in a variety of way. Thanks to his length and a high release point on his shot, Prince is able to shoot over almost any defender. This skill proves most useful at the end of the shot clock, when Prince is often asked to create a shot out of a busted possession. He excels at making contested jump shots as the shot clock expires.

Prince is also a valuable threat in the post. He prefers to get the ball on the right block, where he likes to dribble into the paint and take a lefty hook shot. If his defender overplays against this move, Prince will spin baseline and go to the basket. Prince is one of few players who can contribute both in the post and on the wing of a fast break attack. The Pistons have never been much of a running team, but when they do run, Prince likes to soar in for alley-oop dunks from the left side of the basket.

Prince has never averaged more than 15 points per game in a season. He is surely is capable of such a feat, but he tends to defer to his teammates and he is patient almost to a fault. When Prince catches the ball while open early in the shot clock, he often makes an exaggerated pump fake and then decides how to proceed. If his defender jumps at him, he often will absorb the contact, put up a shot, and head to the charity stripe. If the defender flies past him, Prince will either drive to the hoop, or take one dribble and rise up for a jumper. If the defender does not bite on the fake, Prince likes to back up and either set up a play or isolate against the defender. Prince would probably be best-served to simply shoot the ball a bit more frequently.

Defense: Prince is an excellent defender. He has been voted to the NBA’s 2nd All-Defense team each of the past four seasons. Again, Prince relies on his superior length and intelligence to succeed. As a result of his length, he is able to play a step behind his man while still being able to contest jump shots. Prince can guard four positions and has given fits to players like Kobe Bryant, Antawn Jamison, and Michael Redd. Just two games ago, he did a number on ex-Piston point guard Chauncey Billups down the stretch of a close Piston victory.

Despite a wiry frame, Prince is rarely outmuscled. Opponents who have had success against Prince have often had him try to guard the pick and roll. Prince does a fine job defending the play, but guarding players like LeBron James on the pick and roll without proper help is nearly impossible.

One of the best aspects of Prince’s game is that he rarely bites on pump fakes. Over the last four seasons, he has never averaged more than 1.4 fouls per game despite playing heavy minutes and usually guarding the opponent’s best scorer. Prince does not often gamble for steals, but almost always stays between his man and the basket. He does not block many shots, but the blocks he does make are often spectacular. Prince is one of the best ever at coming from behind a player to block a fast break layup or dunk. He usually times his jumps perfectly and his infamous 2004 block on Reggie Miller set the gold standard for this type of play.

Prince grabbed between 4.2 and 5.3 rebounds per game each of the past five seasons. This season, he has dramatically increased his board work. He is averaging 7.2 rebounds per game. Prince has been more committed to the glass partially because he has been asked to play power forward, but he has also rebounded better while playing small forward.

Overall: Michael Curry has been campaigning for Prince to make the all-star team for the first time in his career. However, LeBron James, Paul Pierce, Caron Butler and Danny Granger all play small forward in the East, so Curry’s mission is probably a lost cause. Prince did have his play recognized when he was named to the gold medal-winning Olympic Basketball team.

Prince does not wow with any one skill, but he is the complete package. He is cerebral on the court and was named team captain because of his poise and leadership. LeBron James is clearly the best small forward – and overall player – in basketball, but Prince is in the next tier in terms of elite small forwards. Since the trade of Billups, Prince has emerged as the Piston’s best player. He is only 28 and under contract through 2011 so expect Prince to continue to be the Piston’s do-everything small forward for several years to come.

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Fastbreak Buckets 1.10.09

-Determining a starting lineup going forward could prove to be a huge challenge for Michael Curry. RIP Hamilton told The Detroit News that he has no interest in adapting to a bench role. Allen Iverson still believes that he is a star and it remains to be seen if he would be willing to be a sixth man for the first time in his career. Rodney Stuckey is clearly the team’s best point guard and Tayshaun Prince belongs at small forward, so it is in the Pistons’ best interest that either Hamilton or Iverson come off the bench. Hopefully, one of the two will relent and embrace a bench role. Until then, there will be some uncomfortable moments for the Pistons.

-The last two games have been almost exactly mirror images of each other for the Pistons. Against Portland, Detroit led by as much as thirteen, allowed Portland to drill away at the lead throughout the second half, and then watched the game slip away after Travis Outlaw made a very difficult jumper. In Denver, Detroit trailed by as much as fourteen, drilled away at the lead throughout the second half, and then stole the game after Tayshaun Prince hit a tough jumper.

-Before the 2008 season, Jason Maxiell worked on improving his free throw shooting. The extra practice time showed up on the stat sheet. Maxiell – who missed more than half of his free throw attempts during his first two seasons – converted on 63.3% of his free throws last season. This season, Maxiell seems to have reverted to his old ways. He has made just 53.2% of this season’s attempts and has had a number of embarrassing misses. Maxiell has played fewer minutes this season than he did a season ago. If he can start making upwards of 60% of his free throws again, those minutes might start to creep back up.

-Antonio McDyess was booed throughout last night’s game in Denver. The jeers served as a reminder of how lucky the Pistons are that he returned. McDyess has been invaluable this season. He is a complete player who helps the Pistons in so many ways. It is no coincidence that one of the Pistons’ worst four week stretches of the past five years coincided with the time Dice missed.

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Earning His Chair

Michael Curry took a lot of heat when the Pistons were struggling midway through December. Detroit fans had come to expect consistent excellence out of their Pistons. When the Pistons failed to deliver in the first six weeks of the season, blamed was assigned to Curry – a new variable in the equation. Now that the Pistons have won seven of their last eight games, Curry deserves his share of the credit. Curry has made a number of moves that have worked in the Pistons favor. He has altered the starting lineup, accommodated for injuries, and removed unproductive players from the rotation.

Curry decided one month ago that Rodney Stuckey needed to start and handle the point guard duties full time. The move has proven ingenious. Stuckey has played so well that he is being mentioned with Rajon Rondo and Devin Harris with regards to the best young point guards in the East. The move has also had a positive impact on the team’s two shooting guards. Allen Iverson has been allowed to play off the ball, where he is able to play his game without worrying about quarterbacking the offense. RIP Hamilton has also benefited from playing alongside a true point guard, who can get him the ball when and where he needs it.

The drawback with starting Stuckey was that he replaced Kwame Brown in the starting lineup, thus forcing the Pistons to play a badly undersized lineup. An injury to RIP Hamilton allowed the Pistons to revert to a traditional lineup, and the early returns are positive. The Pistons are 5-1 – despite a flurry of injuries – since reverting to a traditional lineup. Curry has hinted that he will stick with the bigger lineup even after Hamilton returns.

An early criticism of Curry was that he played too many players. Early in the season, 10 or 11 Pistons would often see important minutes in a given game. Curry appears to have weeded out a few of his less productive players and settled on a more stable nine man rotation. Will Bynum has not played much of late and Walter Hermann has only seen spot minutes. There is a chance that Kwame Brown will also be squeezed out of the regular rotation when Wallace returns from injury.

When Curry was named head coach, he assured the world that the team’s level of intensity would no longer waver. In the past, the Pistons were criticized for “flipping a switch,” or exerting maximum effort only occasionally. This season, the problem seems to have disappeared. Rasheed Wallace remains lackadaisical on the offensive end, but it is hard to imagine that any coach other than Larry Brown could get through to Sheed. The rest of the Pistons have played hard every game this season. Part of the reason for this is that Curry has kept to his mandate that the players who play best will play in crunch time.

Another Curry promise was that he would help develop the team’s young players. Stuckey is playing his way into Most Improved Player discussions. Arron Afflalo is still not much of a scorer, but he has increased his shooting accuracy and become a lockdown defender that helps the Pistons in a variety of ways. Amir Johnson has developed into a great defensive player under Curry and may have finally locked up a permanent spot in the rotation. Jason Maxiell has taken a slight step back, but he remains a valuable contributor for the Pistons.

As long as Curry sticks with a big, traditional lineup, he has the Pistons headed in the right direction. He is developing the young players, invoking intensity from his team, and winning games. Curry also has the respect of his players – there been minimal, if any, public criticism of Curry from the players. He will face his biggest challenge yet when Hamilton is ready to return. So far, Curry has done an admirable job with the roster. If he chooses the correct starting lineup while keeping all of his players content and on the same page, he will have truly earned his promotion to head coach.

Update (1.13.09): Curry undid much of his progress with one misguided maneuver today. He announced that he will return to a small ball lineup and that Will Bynum will again be a significant part of the rotation.

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Learning in Victory (Part II)

-Tayshaun Prince belongs at small forward. Prince has started 24 games this season at small forward and eight at power forward. In the games Prince started at small forward, he averaged 15.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.1 turnovers while shooting 46.1% from the field, including 41.5% on 1.7 three-point attempts per game. When starting at power forward, he averaged 10.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2.1 turnovers while shooting 39.8%. When he started at power forward, he did not make a single three pointer and he took fewer than half as many free throw attempts per game. Prince is also much more effective defending small forwards than power forwards.

Prince plays power forward when the Pistons go to small ball, usually because Curry wants his three scoring guards – Stuckey, Iverson, and Hamilton – on the court together. When this happens, Prince becomes an afterthought on offense as the guards look for shots. Prince and Stuckey are the two best Pistons, so it is important that Prince is put in position to succeed. That means he should be a focal point of the offense and that he needs to play almost exclusively at small forward.

-Stuckey tracker: Stuckey has continued his assault on the league and his recent point totals have been awesome. The Pistons are now 13-3 in games that Stuckey starts. The team is 7-0 when Stuckey plays at least 37 minutes. He has averaged 17.8 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.8 rebounds on better than 50% field goal shooting as a starter.

-Kwame Brown belongs in the Elden Campbell/Dale Davis memorial “backup big man who can defend great low post scorers, but is otherwise useless.” When Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess both return to full strength, Brown should return to the bench. He does a great job defending opposing big men, but he is a liability offensively. The Pistons should play Brown when they face players like Andrew Bynum, Shaq, Al Jefferson, and Tim Duncan. Otherwise, he should be the odd man out in a four man frontcourt rotation featuring Wallace, McDyess, Johnson, and Maxiell.

-Jason Maxiell could be really good, if he were only taller. He tipped or just missed numerous rebounds and passes the past few games. Maxiell is a productive role player, but his lack of height hinders him. His inability to defend the taller Garnett killed the Pistons in last season’s playoffs. Maxiell is mediocre defensive rebounder – as opposed to a great one— because he is undersized compared to other power forwards. If Maxiell was 6’9, he would be one of the best power forwards in basketball. Instead, he is merely a very good backup.

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Learning in Victory (Part I)

The Pistons have been hit by the injury bug. RIP Hamilton sat out the fourth quarter against Oklahoma City and missed the subsequent five games. Rasheed Wallace has been out for the past two and a half games. Antonio McDyess sat out two games and then played through two injuries against the Clippers. Thanks in large part to a soft schedule, the Pistons have won seven straight despite the depleted roster. With several prominent players out of the rotation, many players have had an opportunity to take on additional responsibilities. As a result, Michael Curry should have learned a few things about his team.

-Even a banged up Piston squad is good enough to beat the NBA’s doormats. While a seven-game win streak is impressive regardless of the opponents, the Pistons owe the schedule-makers a belated Christmas gift. During the winning streak, Detroit played one very good team – Orlando – and faced a hot Milwaukee on the road. The other five games were against teams that range from sub-par to pitiful. Five of the seven games were home games for the Pistons.

-Amir Johnson belongs on the court and Curry knows it. After the win against the Clippers, Curry said that he told Johnson that he no longer wants him on the court; he needs him on the court. As evidence, Curry pointed out that in the first half, when Johnson barely played due to foul trouble, the Clippers made over 50% of their field goals and scored 52 points. In the second half, when Johnson was on the court most of the time, the Clippers made less than 30% of their shots and were limited to 33 points.

Johnson saw little game action in the first seven games after the return of McDyess. In the eighth, against Oklahoma City, Johnson entered the game with the Pistons trailing by one late in the third quarter. He sparked a Pistons surge in that game and has seen significant minutes in each of the five subsequent games. Not coincidentally, the Pistons have won all six. Johnson is averaging 6.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game on 62.5% shooting in the last five games, but his contribution goes beyond the box score. Johnson has done a great job protecting the paint and defending the pick and roll. The Pistons have outscored their opponents by 27 points with Johnson on the court over the last six games.

Johnson struggles to create his own shot and, according to Curry, often makes mental mistakes on the floor; however, he does so many positive things defensively and on the glass that he warrants heavy minutes. Johnson’s unique combination of size and athleticism allows him to positively influence games despite his limitations.

Check back for Part II of what the Pistons can learn from their winning streak.

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Comparing the Lineups

The Pistons various starting lineups this season can be broken down into three categories:

1. Small ball (PG, SG, SG, SF, PF: Stuckey, Iverson, RIP, Tayshaun, Sheed). When the Pistons start a small ball lineup, they are 5-3.
2. No true point guard (SG, SG, SF, PF, C: Iverson, RIP, Tayshaun, Sheed, Amir/Kwame). When the Pistons start the game without a true point guard, they are 7-8.
3. Traditional lineup (PG, SG, SF, PF, C: Billups/Stuckey, RIP/Iverson, Tayshaun, Sheed, Amir). When the Pistons start a traditional lineup, they are 7-0.

Obviously these are relatively small sample sizes and a number of other factors, especially strength of schedule, are at work. Nevertheless, the Pistons have clearly played their best basketball when a traditional lineup starts the game. The Pistons will not win every game that they deploy a traditional lineup, but they will definitely win quite a few.

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