Disaster in Dallas

The NBA team in the worst situation going forward may be none other than the Dallas Mavericks. The assertion may seem odd considering that the Mavs have won at least 51 games in each of the last eight seasons, including three seasons with at least 60 wins. The Mavericks are 24-18 this season and the cast of characters is mainly the same, so it may sound outrageous to compare them unfavorably to franchises like the Grizzlies and Clippers.

With that said, virtually every team in the league has a chance to make a playoff run this season, young talent, or impending flexibility to re-make the roster. The exception is the Mavericks. Dallas may approach 50 wins this year, but it is more likely than not to be the odd team out of the playoffs out West. There are nine good teams in the West this season and the Mavericks are the ninth best.

As far as the next couple of years are concerned, Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki are future hall of famers, but Kidd is a shadow of his former self and Nowitzki should start to decline soon, if he has not already. Josh Howard and Jason Terry are very good secondary players, but there is not enough around those two and Nowitzki to match up with the elite teams out West.

The team’s prospects going forward are even worse. Erick Dampier, Jason Terry, and Matt Carroll are all locked into preposterous long term contracts. The trio is owed a combined 28 million dollars in the 2011 season. Terry comes off the books that season, but Dampier and Carroll are on the hook for 15 million in 2012. Jerry Stackhouse also has a ridiculous contract; he’s set to make seven million this season and seven and a quarter million next year. As a result of those four contracts, the Mavericks have little ability to add to their core through trades or free agency any time in the near future.

That core may have maxed out its potential as a borderline playoff team with no chance of making serious noise in the playoffs. The trade of Devin Harris for Jason Kidd crippled the franchise. Harris has emerged as the best point guard in the Eastern conference this season, while Kidd has deteriorated into an average starter nearing the end of his career. This leads to the Maverick’s biggest problem.

The Mavericks have amassed less young talent than any team in recent memory. Among players younger than 28, only Brandon Bass belongs in an NBA rotation. Bass is an undersized big man in the mold of Jason Maxiell. After Bass, the team’s two most accomplished “prospects” are JJ Barea and Gerald Green. Both players have shown the ability to be competent offensively, but they are also poor defenders who project as no more than 8th or 9th men in a playoff rotation. Compounding the problem is the fact that Dallas will be drafting in the teens this year and traded away its 2010 first round pick to acquire Kidd.

To recap, the Mavericks are a borderline playoff team right now. They have little, if any, room for internal improvement. Their payroll is tied up with overpaid role players for at least the next three seasons unless the team moves Josh Howard of Dirk Nowitzki. If it does move either of the two, the Mavs would fade to mediocrity. The Mavericks will have a mid-first round pick this summer and have no first round pick after the 2010 season. Unless Mark Cuban can work a miracle, it is hard to imagine his Mavericks winning a playoff series any time in the next five seasons.