Count That Baby And A Foul

Am I Supposed to be Excited?

2009-07-01T13:31:00.005-04:00

Yahoo's Adrian Wojnarowski reports that the Pistons are close to signing two former Connecticut Huskies to play alongside UConn alum RIP Hamilton.

"Chicago Bulls guard Ben Gordon and Milwaukee Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva flew to Detroit on Wednesday morning for a mid-day meeting with team president Joe Dumars and indications are both are moving rapidly toward deals with the Detroit Pistons."
--Yahoo! Sports

Kelly Dwyer sums up my feelings. If the reports are true, for the first time since he took over as GM, I have serious doubts about Joe Dumars and his plan. Prove me wrong Joe.

Update: ESPN's Henry Abbott used to like the Chauncey Billups trade from Detroit's perspective. Used to.

Breaking News: Curry Fired

2009-06-30T13:34:00.002-04:00

The Pistons have fired Michael Curry after one disappointing season as coach.

"This was a difficult decision to make," Pistons president Joe Dumars said. "I want to thank Michael for his hard work and dedication to the organization. However, at this time, I have decided to make a change."
–Detroit News

It’s fair to wonder if Bill Laimbeer’s resignation from the Detroit Shock was a related move. More on this to come.

Catching Up: Dumars Says “No” to Rajon Rondo

2009-06-30T12:24:00.000-04:00

Reports circulated last week that the Pistons turned down a Celtic offer of Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen for Rodney Stuckey, RIP Hamilton, and Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons apparently rejected the deal without much hesitation, but the deal is much too appealing to have merited such little consideration.

The current Piston roster is nowhere near contention. Adding Ben Gordon and either Carlos Boozer or Charlie Villanueva (a likely summer plan for Joe Dumars) would put the Pistons in the playoffs, but leave the team well short of beating Cleveland or Orlando. The aforementioned players are all poor defenders and neither Stuckey nor Hamilton would do much to compensate.

Part of the appeal to the deal would be the Pistons’ ability to upgrade from Stuckey to Rondo at point guard. While Stuckey has the potential to be a star, Rondo is already there. Both point guards are 23, but Rondo’s PER was four points higher last season. Rondo is also among the best defensive guards in the world.

The other benefit of the trade would be financial. This may be a tough pill for Piston fans to swallow, but given the right offer, the Pistons should jump at an opportunity to rid themselves of two players, Hamilton and Prince, set to earn big bucks in their 30s. Hamilton is 31 while Prince will turn 30 this season. Hamilton and Prince are on the payroll for roughly 23 million combined in 2011, followed by 12.65 million per season for Hamilton through 2013. Meanwhile, Ray Allen’s contract expires in 2010.

Maintaining the status quo ensures a half-hearted push toward relevance for the next few seasons while Hamilton and Prince fade toward retirement. The prescient move would be to aim for long-term success and shoot for an even higher ceiling. Removing the remaining overpaid players from the previous era would be a necessary step to do so. The Pistons would have to give Rondo a contract extension beginning in the 2011 season – a season in which Stuckey will still be on his rookie contract – but the overall financial ramifications of the deal would still strongly favor the Pistons.

Assuming the Pistons give Rondo a contract extension of roughly 12 million per season, the Pistons would create roughly 15 million dollars in additional cap space for the summer of 2010. Through this trade, the Pistons would have Rondo, whichever free agents they acquire this summer, and enough cap space to be a serious player in the much-ballyhooed summer of 2010. With the right maneuvering, Dumars could forge a foundation that could contend into the next decade.

While the deal appears attractive on the surface, there are legitimate concerns on Detroit’s end. There have been questions about Rajon Rondo’s character. Pairing him with Michael Curry may not be a smart fit, as Curry did a poor job managing difficult personalities last season. Also, for the deal to be worthwhile, the Pistons will have to find a player willing to take their money and worthy of earning it on the free agent market.

While the above concerns are legitimate, the Pistons need to at least be open to any and all possibilities for reshaping the roster. For the Pistons to return to elite status, Dumars must either drastically overhaul the roster or add a superstar. Swapping perimeter players with Boston accomplishes the former and puts the team in position to achieve the latter during the summer of 2010.

Back to Blogging

2009-06-30T08:41:00.001-04:00

I apologize for the lack of posting lately. I don’t watch enough college basketball to offer sophisticated draft analysis and am not a huge fan of the rumor-mongering that accompanies the off-season. With that said, I’m going to do my best to make several posts during free agency, the first of which should be up later today.

Breaking News: Amir Johnson Dealt

2009-06-23T20:57:00.001-04:00

http://www.freep.com/article/20090623/SPORTS03/90623053/1051/Reports++Pistons+deal+Amir+Johnson+to+Bucks+for+Fabricio+Oberto

Sad day here at CTBAAF. Hopefully Joe Dumars has a plan with the additional cap space he just created. More on this later.

Mr. Personality

2009-05-07T01:30:00.001-04:00

Tuesday on TNT, Charles Barkley, Chris Webber, and Kenny Smith ranted about Dirk Nowitzki (a few quotes here). Nowitzi credited Denver’s defenders for the way they defend him. The TNT crew argued that no star player should ever concede that any opponent can frustrate him.

One night later, Kobe Bryant squared off against alleged Kobe-stopper Shane Battier. Bryant destroyed Battier, finished with 40 points, and repeatedly shouted “He can’t f***ing guard me” after several baskets of the baskets he scored over Battier. Kobe may have lost his thrown as league MVP, but he maintains the title of “most contrived personality in sports.” Even A-Rod is jealous.

Roster Inventory

2009-05-06T01:30:00.002-04:00

The busy clearly have a very busy offseason ahead. Barring any trades, the Pistons currently have holes to fill at every frontcourt position. Below is an inventory of which rotation slots are currently filled.

Theoretically, Amir Johnson or Kwame Brown could slide into a starting role, but that would not be ideal. If Antonio McDyess returns, he would provide a temporary solution at starting power forward. With that said, Joe Dumars should limit the amount of salary and playing time he commits to players older than 28. Unless a star big man falls into Dumars’ lap, the Pistons are probably a few years away from returning to contention. As such, Dumars needs to focus on acquiring players who can contribute in the future.

Summer Plans

2009-04-28T11:14:00.002-04:00

With the season complete the content of this blog will obviously be quite different during the next several months. Posting will be slow for the next couple weeks as I allow the NBA postseason to sort itself out while I tend to the real world. However, any break with posting will be short-lived. Beginning in mid-May, I plan to begin several offseason series that will include, but not be limited to:

Player Profiles: I would like to assess the play of each Piston this season with an eye toward how said player should fit into the team’s future plans. I will focus on the progress (or regression) each player showed both from last season to this season and within this past season.
Potential Targets: I will analyze the roster situation on every team in hopes of determining which players the Pistons should target. I will try to answer questions such as: “Which free agents would make sense for the Pistons?” and “Who is a logical trading partner for the Pistons?”

Pistons vs. Cavaliers, 4.26.09, Round 1, Game 4

2009-04-26T11:30:00.001-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Series: 3-0, Cleveland
Spread: Cavaliers -8.5

All season long, Sundays have doomed the Pistons. The team went a dreadful 4-12 on the first day of the week. Sundays featured embarrassing losses to teams such as Memphis, Minnesota, and New York. It is only fitting that this season will likely on the day that saw so much misery.

Detroit has looked helpless the first three games of this series. Cleveland has dominated in every aspect of the game and there is little reason to believe things will be different today. Barring an injury to King James, the Cavaliers should complete the sweep today.

My Pick: Cavaliers by 13

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 78, Cleveland 99
Notes:

Say goodbye to an era. It was great while it lasted.
Joe Dumars has a massive rebuilding project ahead of him. For the next several months, this blog will be dedicated to covering just that.

Pistons vs. Cavaliers, 4.24.09, Round 1, Game 3

2009-04-24T17:23:00.003-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Series: 2-0, Cleveland
Spread: Cavaliers -5

After suffering a second embarrassing loss to the Cavaliers, the Pistons had two days to regroup between games. Every prominent player on the roster sounded dejected after game two, so hopefully the team has used the time off to stop whimpering and start developing a plan of attack.

Unfortunately, the Pistons’ problems are much deeper than an inferiority complex. They have no answer for LeBron James and no ability to overcome their offensive shortcomings on the other end. Michael Curry will probably look for a spark from his bench early and often, but the talent disparity between Cleveland’s starters and Detroit’s backups will render that plan ineffective.

If the Pistons are going to a steal a game in this series, tonight will be their best chance. In all likelihood, the Pistons are not all that eager to make another trip to Cleveland and are thus resigned to a sweep.

My Pick: Cavaliers by 12

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 68, Cleveland 79
Notes:

There isn’t much left to say. The Cavaliers are more talented, better-coached, and hungrier than the Pistons. Also, they have the best player on the planet playing at an insanely high level.
In many ways this series is an opportunity for Joe Dumars to determine which players deserve to be part of the future in Detroit. If that is indeed the case, Rodney Stuckey appears to be the only starter worth keeping around. RIP Hamilton has enough talent to be a part of the core, but he’s on the wrong side of 30 for a team that probably is a few years away from returning to prominence.

One Step Back, How Many Forward?

2009-04-22T22:21:00.001-04:00

It would be easy to use the Pistons’ play in the opening games of the playoffs as an indictment of the trade for Allen Iverson. Based on the way Chauncey Billups dominated his first playoff game this season, it seems crazy that the Joe Dumars traded him for a player who was mostly trouble for the Pistons. However, when the big picture is taken into account, the start to the playoffs has justified the trade more substantially than anything that happened during the regular season.

The Pistons have been utterly dominated by Cleveland. Save for the fourth quarter of game two – a quarter in which Cleveland relaxed with a 27-point lead – the Cavaliers have outscored the Pistons in every quarter. In game one, Cleveland did whatever it wanted offensively. The following game, the Cavaliers shut down the Piston offense; Detroit did not reach 19 points in any of the first three quarters.

What the Cavalier domination has proven is that Detroit is nowhere close to fielding a contender. While Chauncey Billups easily would have been the best player on the team, the Pistons had no chance to contend this season, with or without Mr. Big Shot.

Had the Iverson trade not happened, Billups likely would have led Detroit to a top-four seed and a second round exit. Dumars saw the writing on the wall and elected to jumpstart the rebuilding process by creating financial flexibility. The Pistons could have slowly faded into oblivion much the same that the Dallas Mavericks have fallen from the league’s elite. Thanks to Dumars’ foresight, that slow descent appears to have been avoided.

As much as the Pistons have struggled this season, several teams should be envious of the team’s ability to clean house this summer. Detroit has young talent and the financial flexibility to put together a completely new core as early as this summer. While teams like the Suns, Knicks, and Kings are forced to wait for bad contracts to expire before they rebuild, the Iverson trade has put the Pistons in a position to re-toll right away.

Dumars will accept nothing less than a team that can compete for a Championship. In order for a capable roster to materialize, Dumars made a trade that hurt the Piston roster in the short term. That has been a tough pill to swallow this year, but if the Pistons are back amongst the league’s elite by 2011 instead of 2014, the trade will be worth every embarrassing loss this team suffers over the next couple seasons.

Pistons at Cavaliers, 4.21.09, Round 1, Game 2

2009-04-21T17:58:00.006-04:00

I will be participating in a Live Blog (link) on PistonPowered.com during the game. Piston Powered is a Detroit Piston's blog that is a part of the ESPN.com TrueHoop blog network. During the Live Blog, I will discuss the game, the state of the team, and will be available to answer questions. Thanks to Dan Feldman of Piston Powered for helping set this up.

Matchup: Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Series: 1-0, Cleveland
Spread: Cavaliers -11.5

The Pistons will attempt to even the series after suffering a beat down in game one. Detroit’s offense had some success in game one, but the defense was brutal. The team has likely paid quite a bit of attention to shoring up its defense during the two days between games. Hopefully, the concentration on defense will not lead to a drop-off in Detroit’s offensive production.

While the Cavaliers are heavily favored once again, recent history may be on Detroit’s side. The Pistons are a remarkable 9-0 in the second game of a playoff series over the last three years. Flip Saunders took plenty of heat for his inability to get to the team to the finals, but he deserves praise for that 9-0 record. In the first game of a playoff series, teams employ their series strategies and feel out their opponents. It is in that second game that coaches have a chance to break down their opponents and make adjustments to their schemes. The fact that Saunders had a perfect record in such games while in Detroit reflects well on his ability to make in-series adjustments.

For the Pistons’ game-two winning streak to reach 10, the defense must find a way to turn LeBron James into a volume scorer. The Pistons can live with him scoring 38 points again, so long as it takes him upwards of 30 shots to do so. If James is again able to score nearly two points per shot attempt, the Pistons are doomed.

As Magic Johnson explained during the 1991 finals, the margin of victory is meaningless. If the Pistons can eke out a win tonight, the series will be tied in spite of Cleveland’s dominating performance in game one. As much as I’d like to see that happen, I can’t imagine this Piston team beating LeBron James on his home floor.

My Pick: Cavaliers by 14

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 82, Cleveland 94
Notes:

LeBron James is playing basketball at a higher level than any perimeter player this millennium.
If this Cavalier team has a weakness, I can’t spot it. Their bench is a little thin, but they have enough quality players to fill out a playoff rotation. Aside from that, this team does everything well.
The difference between the current Pistons and the contenders from the past several years starts with the interior defense. Ben Wallace is gone and the remaining players – Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess, and Tayshaun Prince – look older and slower by the day.
Will Bynum, Arron Afflalo, and Amir Johnson led a 20-2 fourth quarter run. When the Pistons finally pulled within single digits, Amir Johnson was pulled and Cleveland immediately regained control.
Delonte West and Mo Williams were the primary beneficiaries of all of the defensive attention LeBron drew.

Piston Powered's "Pistons Roundtable"

2009-04-20T16:58:00.000-04:00

Dan from Piston Powered was gracious enough to include me in a question and answer session featuring several prominent writers who cover the Pistons. The panel included the following writers, each of whom answered six questions.

Chris McCosky, Detroit News
Michael Rosenberg, Detroit Free Press
Greg Johnson, The Grand Rapids Press
Dave Dial, Full Court Press
Matt Watson, Detroit Bad Boys
Zack Slabotsky, Count That Baby And A Foul
Brian Packey, Motown String Music
Jesse Murphy, Pistons Nation
Dan Feldman, Piston Powered

Be sure to check out the entire Pistons Roundtable, which can be found here.

Pistons at Cavaliers, 4.18.09, Round 1, Game 1

2009-04-18T11:00:00.006-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers
Series: 0-0
Spread: Cavaliers -12
My Pick: Cavaliers by 11

The Pistons open the playoffs in Cleveland. Cleveland is heavily favored for good reason. Excluding the meaningless final game of the season, the Cavaliers went 39-1 at home this season. For what it’s worth, the Pistons beat the Cavs once during the regular season and kept two other games close. The Pistons best hope of keeping this afternoon’s game close is if the Cavaliers perimeter shooters play erratically under the pressure of the top seed. Don’t count on it.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 84, Cleveland 102
Notes:

I’ve seen teams play worse defense than Detroit played yesterday -- for instance, I watched the Knicks play this game -- but I can’t remember ever seeing playoff defense as porous as what the Pistons displayed yesterday.
King James scored 38 points on 20 shots, committed zero turnovers, and added eight rebounds and seven assists. LeBron scored 25 straight Cavalier points to decimate the Pistons’ championship aspirations two seasons ago. Since then, he’s improved mightily. At this point, any NBA analyst who calls Kobe Bryant “the best player in basketball” is an analyst I can’t take seriously.
Antonio McDyess and Tayshaun Prince, among others, looked a step slow defensively.
Rodney Stuckey was aggressive, but he needs to do a better job trying to finish plays instead of hoping for a whistle.
Kwame Brown and Arron Afflalo both had nice games off the bench.
Detroit did a nice job of taking care of the basketball, thus limiting LeBron’s opportunities in the open court. Unfortunately for the Pistons, Cleveland did an even better job avoiding turnovers.

Pistons vs. Cavaliers, Playoff Preview

2009-04-18T02:32:00.005-04:00

Beginning this afternoon, the eighth-seeded Pistons will take on the heavily favored Cleveland Cavaliers in the opening round of the NBA playoffs. If the Pistons are to extend their streak of conference finals appearances, they will need to pull off a major upset. What follows is a breakdown – player by player – of the series.

Point Guard: Rodney Stuckey vs. Mo Williams. Stuckey had an up and down sophomore campaign. While the circus surrounding his second season was nothing like his relatively calm rookie year, his per-minute statistics were almost identical, save for a nearly 4% improvement in field goal percentage. Williams was given an All-Star spot after his teammates, coaches, and owner bickered about the fact that was (correctly) excluded from the initial roster. While he may not have deserved that honor, he had an excellent first season in Cleveland. According to NBA.com’s “Hot Spots,” Williams converted a remarkable 45.9% of long twos and 43.6% of threes. He made defenders pay for doubling LeBron all season long.

Stuckey should be able to use his superior size and strength to get past Williams; however Cleveland has a fierce frontline protecting the paint. Stuckey did not reach double figures in scoring in any of the four meetings with Cleveland this season. On the other end, Stuckey would normally be able to handle Williams, but LeBron James changes that equation. Every Piston defender has to be conscience of James. As a result, Williams should have several open jumpers each game. Based on his track record, that could prove to a major thorn in the side of the Pistons.

Shooting Guard: RIP Hamilton vs. Delonte West. Hamilton is the Pistons’ best hope on offense in this series. Unfortunately, as John Hollinger pointed out, West is among the league’s most improved defenders. Hamilton has three inches on his counterpart, but the Piston offense too often stagnates when they run post plays through perimeter players. Detroit should run plenty of plays for RIP, but expect West to hold his own. On the other end of the floor, West is another excellent shooter who is vital to Cleveland’s floor spacing. He cannot quite match Williams’ accuracy, but few can. West knocked down a career-high 39.9% of his threes this season.

Small Forward: Tayshaun Prince vs. LeBron James. Tayshaun Prince is one of the better small forwards in the league. The only small forward who can be reasonably compared to LeBron James is Larry Bird. James averaged 25.8 points and 6.5 assists per game against Prince this season. For a normal player, that production would be outstanding, but for James, that constitutes a drop-off from his regular output. On the other end, Prince, who is usually a weapon in Detroit’s offense, should probably try to conserve energy and simply spot-up for his jumper. Normally it is a good idea to make opposing stars work on defense, but with James, “normal” gets thrown out the window.

Power Forward: Antonio McDyess vs. Anderson Varejao. McDyess was awesome the second half of the season. He will need to match his March production if the Pistons hope to be competitive. Varejao will start in place of injured former Piston Ben Wallace. While Varejao’s stats have remained relatively unchanged, he is playing smarter basketball and better defense than earlier in his career. McDyess has a better shot and is a better rebounder than Varejao, but Varejao is a much better help defender. Varejao is not much of an offensive threat, but he will make teams pay by finishing in the paint if opponents ignore him. On paper, this matchup appears to be a draw.

Center: Rasheed Wallace vs. Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Wallace’s gentle decline continued this season, as he posted his first season with a PER below the league average in more than a decade. While Wallace is clearly not the player he once was, his shooting stroke and his interior defense remain stellar. On the other end, Cleveland’s center has many of the same strengths and weaknesses that Wallace possesses. Like Wallace, Ilgaukas is a deadly outside shooter who protects the paint on defense. Both players lack the quickness to defend the pick and roll. As is the case with the power forwards, neither team should gain a significant edge via this matchup.

Backup Point Guard: Will Bynum vs. Daniel Gibson. The Pistons’ biggest edge in the series comes in the battle of backup point guards. Gibson is a nice outside shooter (career 41.2% on threes), but he brings little else to the table. Bynum is the exact opposite. He struggles to shoot the three, but he does everything else well. Bynum should be drive to blow past Gibson at will. If he does not need to help on LeBron, Bynum should also be able to shut down Gibson, thus creating a mismatch Detroit must exploit.

Backup Wing: Arron Afflalo vs. Wally Szczerbiak. Afflalo has greatly improved his shooting accuracy and is a rapidly improving defender. Szczerbiak is a deadly outside shooter (notice a pattern?) who brings little else to the table. This is another matchup that would favor the Pistons until one considers all of the open looks LeBron will create for Wally.

Backup Power Forward: Jason Maxiell vs. Darnell Jackson. Maxiell kills opponents on the offensive glass. He hurts his own team with his inability to control the defensive glass or defend taller players. Jackson saw minutes because Ben Wallace and J.J. Hickson were sidelined with injuries. The guess here is that Jackson winds up the ninth man in a competition for eight rotation spots in the playoffs.

Backup Center: Kwame Brown vs. Joe Smith. In the battle of former top picks, Smith will attempt to use his sweet stroke and veteran savvy to outplay his bigger, more athletic counterpart. Brown’s ability to defend the basket may prove useful, but his shortcomings on offense will keep him from playing extended minutes.

Series Prediction: I believe the Pistons will play well, but it is not going to matter against the Cavaliers. LeBron James is on a mission to win a championship and I do not see any team denying him in 2009. Defensively, Detroit lacks the athletes to shut down Cleveland. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s defense has the potential to dominate a Piston offense that struggled all season long.

In each of the first two games, I expect the Pistons to remain competitive early, only to watch Cleveland slowly build a lead, and then pull away in the fourth quarter. In game three, I see Detroit playing its best game of the playoffs as it attempts to extend the series. With that said, I don’t think Detroit’s best is enough to overtake Cleveland. Cleveland wins a close one in game three. The Cavs finish off the sweep with a blowout after Detroit mentally checks out before game four. I hope I’m wrong. Cavaliers in four.

How's That Back Injury?

2009-04-18T00:30:00.002-04:00

Just in case there was any remaining doubt about the real reason Allen Iverson is no longer playing for the Pistons:

Pistons president Joe Dumars reiterated Wednesday via e-mail that Iverson's leave from the team -- granted on April 3 after Dumars and Iverson met to address the 33-year-old's increasing frustration with a reserve role -- will remain in effect for the duration of Detroit's stay in the playoffs.
–ESPN.com’s Marc Stein

The back injury was a convenient excuse, but the facts got in the way of anyone believing that. Piston doctors found no structural damage in Iverson’s back, Iverson had played through pain his entire career, he returned from the alleged injury to play three games just as effectively (or ineffectively) as he had earlier in the season, and he repeatedly complained about his role. When he was shut down for the season, his back injury was reported as the primary culprit. It never made sense. It is unclear if the decision for Iverson and the Pistons to part ways had to do with Iverson’s refusal to accept a bench role, Dumars’ refusal to accept a player who was doing more harm than good while in the game, or a combination of the two. However, it is more clear than ever that Iverson's professed back injury had little to do with the separation of player and team.

Playoff Schedule

2009-04-16T03:37:00.001-04:00

The first round playoff schedule has been released.

Cleveland vs. Detroit
Game 1 - Sat April 18 Detroit at Cleveland 3:00PM ABC
Game 2 - Tue April 21 Detroit at Cleveland 8:00PM TNT
Game 3 - Fri April 24 Cleveland at Detroit 7:00PM ESPN
Game 4 - Sun April 26 Cleveland at Detroit 3:30PM ABC
Game 5 * Wed April 29 Detroit at Cleveland TBD TBD
Game 6 * Fri May 1 Cleveland at Detroit TBD TBD
Game 7 * Sun May 3 Detroit at Cleveland TBD TBD

Pistons at Heat, 4.15.09

2009-04-15T18:57:00.005-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (39-42) at Miami Heat (42-39)
Spread: Heat -2
My Pick: Pistons by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

The Heat Don’t Care. They are locked into the fifth seed. The Heat is already focused on the Hawks.
No D-Wade. Wade, Udonis Haslem, and Jermaine O’Neal sat out last night are not expected to play tonight. As Peninsula Is Mightier noted, this is “meaningless game number 2” for Miami.
Strong Depth. The Pistons won’t be playing their regulars, but Walter Sharpe is the only Piston incapable of holding his own in an NBA rotation. The Pistons will be fine playing Will Bynum, Arron Afflalo, Walter Herrmann, Jason Maxiell, Amir Johnson, and Kwame Brown heavy minutes.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

The Pistons Don’t Care. The team is locked into the eighth seed. This game will be little more than a glorified scrimmage.
No Sheed. The Iverson-free Pistons play their best with Rasheed in the lineup. Sheed will be joined by RIP and Antonio McDyess on the inactive list as they rest for the playoffs. (Update: In contrast with early reports, Sheed started the game.)
Michael Beasley. The dynamic young forward could go off for the Heat. Neither Watler Herrmann nor Jason Maxiell is up to the task of defending him, although Amir Johnson might have a chance.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 96, Miami 102 (OT)
Notes:

Michael Curry did not take this game for granted. He played his top-five bench players most of the game in hopes that the experience will pay off in the playoffs.
The Pistons outplayed the Heat in the second quarter, but were outscored when Miami hit several contested three pointers, plus a difficult 22-foot jumper by Chris Quinn. Only five of Miami’s 22 points in the quarter were scored within 20 feet of the basket.
Michael Beasley combines a high release point with an extremely accurate jump shot. He’s flown under the radar a bit this season, but he and Wade could form an awesome one-two punch for several seasons to come.
Chris Quinn and Michael Beasley both hit several difficult shots. Those shots proved to be the difference in the game.
Jason Maxiell and Kwame Brown had nice games. Both were very active in the paint.
I don’t want to beat a dead horse so I’m not going to mention that Amir Johnson was a menace disrupting the entire Heat offense whenever he was on the floor.

A Reason to Hope

2009-04-14T22:59:00.007-04:00

Last night’s devastating loss to Chicago has relegated the Pistons to a playoff series with LeBron James. It also clinched Detroit’s first below-.500 season since 2001. As mediocre as the Pistons’ final record may be, the current incarnation of the Piston roster has actually been performed very well. As David Berri explained, Allen Iverson is an even worse basketball player than people realize.

Iverson left Philadelphia and the Sixers got better.
Iverson was expected to transform the Denver Nuggets into a title contender. Denver, though, never got out of the first round of the Western Conference playoffs.
Iverson left the Nuggets and the team got better.
Iverson has arrived in Detroit, and the team got worse.
–David Berri, Wages of Wins

This season, Iverson played in 57 games (three of which were with Denver). His team was 25-32 in those games. Denver has excelled without Iverson. Before too much of that success is attributed to the arrival of Chauncey Billups, consider how well the Pistons have played when Rasheed Wallace has played, but Iverson has not.

This season, in the 17 games when Rasheed Wallace has played while Iverson has not, the Pistons are 13-4. In a sample size large enough to warrant one’s attention, the Pistons have won more than three fourths of their games. The chart below lists the results of every game the Pistons have played with their starting center and without their alleged superstar. (Road games are in italics, losses are in red.)

In those 17 games, the Pistons have a scoring margin of +6.1 points per game. Extrapolated over the course of an 82-game season, a team with that scoring margin would be expected to win roughly 58 games. To a certain extent, the Pistons benefitted from a less than intimidating schedule, however they did earn road wins against Boston and Orlando, as well as home wins over Denver and Orlando. Of the four losses, three came against playoff teams and none were by more than five points.

This probably does not mean much for the playoffs because LeBron James is ridiculously awesome. It also can only shed so much light on the Pistons’ future considering that Wallace’s days in Detroit are probably coming to end in the near future. What it does say is the team the Pistons bring into the playoffs is probably the fourth-best in the East.

In a season where so much has gone wrong for the Pistons, the team is not that far from returning to contention. Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, and Amir Johnson should each continue to improve. Will Bynum and Kwame Brown should be better next season when there is more certainty regarding their roles. RIP Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince should remain effect for several more seasons, even though the decline phase of their careers has begun in subtle ways.

The only concerning components of the Piston rotation are Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess, both of whom could potentially depart this summer. If Amir Johnson is given the opportunity, he is capable of taking up the slack for Dice. The drop-off in jump-shooting and veteran savvy would be compensated for with Johnson’s superior athleticism and defense.

If the Pistons can replace Rasheed Wallace, the team may find itself hosting a first round playoff series as soon as next season. The task may be easier than it sounds given the state of the economy. Players like Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap will struggle to find reasonable offers, while several team owners will be looking to trade away valuable players in exchange for financial relief.

The Pistons lost more than half of their games and are likely headed toward a very brief postseason appearance. Regardless, the Pistons sans Iverson are better than people realize. A return to prominence may not be as far off as common wisdom would suggest.

Pistons vs. Bulls, 4.13.09

2009-04-13T17:19:00.004-04:00

I will be participating in a Live Blog (link) on PistonPowered.com during the game. Piston Powered is a Detroit Piston's blog that is a part of the ESPN.com TrueHoop blog network. During the Live Blog, I will discuss the game, the state of the team, and will be available to answer questions. Thanks to Dan Feldman of Piston Powered for helping set this up.

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (39-41) vs. Chicago Bulls (40-40)
Spread: Pistons -4
My Pick: Pistons by 5

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

No More Noc. The Pistons had to be thrilled to see Andres Nocioni sent to the Western Conference. Nocioni. Nocioni averaged 17.3 points with a ridiculous 67.9% effective field goal percentage in his last nine games against Detroit.
Return to Health. RIP Hamilton and Rasheed Wallace did not play when the Pistons fell to the Bulls in March. With those two back, Detroit should play much better tonight.
Homecourt Edge. The home team has won the first three meetings of the season between these teams. As hot as the Bulls have been, they team has had most of its success at home. The Bulls have dropped nine of their last 11 road games, with the only wins coming against doormats Oklahoma City and Washington.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Midseason Acquisitions. Brad Miller and John Salmons, who allegedly was Joe Dumars’ backup plan in the 2002 draft had Tayshaun Prince not been available, have led the Bulls to an 11-3 record in their last 14 games. The two players acquired from Sacramento have been the Bulls’ best players during that stretch.
Ben Gordon. The notoriously streaky shooter is locked in right now. He has averaged 24.6 points in his last 7 games as he auditions for a new contract. He is 11-20 from behind the long line in the last two games.
Tyrus Thomas. Chicago’s developing young forward saves his best for games against Detroit. The Bulls have beaten Detroit twice this year because Thomas has averaged 20 points and 11 rebounds in those games.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 88, Chicago 91
Notes:

The Pistons led most of the second half, but the offense went cold down the stretch. The Pistons scored just three points in the final 5:57.
A first round date with Cleveland is assured, as is the 15th pick in 2009 draft.
Once again, Amir Johnson received a healthy DNP.
Derrick Rose put an exclamation point on a season which will earn him Rookie of the Year honors.
The Pistons failed to match the overall quickness the Bulls possess.
Detroit’s bench was very quiet in the loss.
Ben Gordon is a poor defender, but his jump shot is flawless. Few shoot better than Gordon off the dribble.
Rodney Stuckey had a nice game, but the shot he had blocked in the final minute was a shot he should never have taken. Either Michael Curry diagrammed a terrible play or Stuckey made a very costly decision.

Fastbreak Buckets 4.12.2009

2009-04-12T22:55:00.008-04:00

This edition of Fastbreak Buckets is all about Allen Iverson's separation from the Pistons.

I’ve had mixed feelings about posting much more than I already have about Allen Iverson, mainly because most everything that can be said, has been said. Nevertheless, one week after Iverson was sent home, I’m going to highlight some of the opinions from around the internet, and offer up a few points of my own.

The piece on Iverson that has garnered the most attention has been Jason Whitlock’s brutal attack on Iverson’s career.

Winning has never really mattered to Allen Iverson.
…
Iverson is a one-man, no-country Army, more than likely the victim of a dysfunctional upbringing that left him incapable of embracing the concepts essential to teamwork, winning and sacrifice for the benefit of others.
I have been as harsh on Iverson as anyone (Wages of Wins has given me a run for my money), but I take exception with a few of Whitlock’s suggestions, namely that Iverson never cared about winning. Iverson doesn't play selfishly (dribble and shoot too much) because of his upbringing or his race, as Whitlock suggests. Iverson plays that way because he believes it is the best way to help a team win. He is wrong.

The same unbridled confidence that allowed a 5’11 man to succeed in a league that employs more people above seven-feet than below six-feet is also Iverson’s biggest fault. Iverson believes that the best way to lead a team to victory is for him to dominate the offense and fill up the score sheet. At one point, his one-man offense was able to match that of most NBA teams. At age 33, he has reached the point where any offense he leads will be a terrible one. The gap between his skills and his perception of his skills has only become more pronounced as his game has deteriorated, but his confidence has not.
Over at Piston Powered, Dan Feldman explains that Iverson’s back injury had little to do with the early ending to his season.

Iverson isn’t playing again for the Pistons because he doesn’t want to play again for the Pistons. Sure, his back may be hurting. But he just complained about not getting enough minutes. If he wanted to fight through it, he could.
While it is hard to imagine the back injury was a deciding factor, I think Iverson’s desire to leave the team was matched only by Joe Dumars’ desire to get rid of him after it became clear he was not capable of helping the team in a bench role.
For those who wonder why a former MVP was incapable of serving as a useful role player, Fanhouse’s Matt Steinmetz breaks it down.

Even if Iverson is ready, willing and able to lower himself a rung on a team's scoring ladder, that doesn't mean he'll do it well or that he's best suited to do it.As a general rule, role players are better at being role players than stars are at being role players.
While that does not apply to all players – David Robinson, Grant Hill, Reggie Miller, and Ray Allen, among others, have been effective as complimentary players after being go-to guys earlier in their careers – Iverson is clearly not suited to be anything other than a team’s primary scoring option. When Iverson was effective earlier in his career, his remarkable scoring ability overcame his several weaknesses, notably poor defense, poor decision-making, and a ball-hogging style of play that takes a team out of its offense. As he has aged, that scoring ability has deteriorated, but the weaknesses remain. What’s left is a player whose cannot help an NBA team unless he drastically changes his style of play. Iverson's only skill is his ability to score. The problem is that he scores in such a horribly inefficient manner that he is a hindrance to team success on both ends of the floor.
The mainstream media has plenty of coverage of Iverson’s final days with the Pistons. Larry Brown says that plenty of teams will want Iverson. Either several teams have misguided GMs, Brown is wrong, or Brown is telling a white lie as not to offend “The Answer.” “He's still a starter in this league; he's going to have a lot of success," Michael Curry told The Detroit News. Again, I cannot imagine that Curry truly believes what he is saying. Marc Stein says he has talked to several league executives who do not believe there will be much of a market for Iverson. The market for Iverson will be limited, but it only takes one bad GM for a player to a contract disproportionate to his ability to contribute. Chris McCosky rails against the way Iverson handled the move to the bench. In light of what has transpired, it is hard to disagree.
Lastly, for comedy’s sake, here is Rick Kamla (via Pistons Nation) making us question whether paying attention to the NBA is part of the job description for hosting a show that analyzes the NBA. “He’s a Hall of Fame player who’s still in the prime of his career,” Kamla said. If Iverson’s play this year is indicative of the prime of a Hall of Fame career, I can think of a few hundred players who deserve a plaque in Springfield. In 2009, Will Bynum is a better basketball player than Allen Iverson. The fact that Kamla has not watched enough Piston basketball to know this led him to go on national television and reveal his ignorance while shouting.

One last thing I'd like to mention. Brian Packey has launched Motown String Music as the Piston blogosphere's representative on SB Nation. MSM is off to a great start and has some exciting ideas that should strengthen the Piston blogging community. Be sure to check the site out.

Pistons at Pacers, 4.11.09

2009-04-11T18:55:00.004-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (39-40) at Indiana Pacers (34-45)
Spread: Pacers -3
My Pick: Pistons by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Streaking. The Pistons have won three in a row. With Iverson sent home, the Pistons appear to be hitting their stride just in time for the playoffs.
Stability. Michael Curry announced that his recent rotation will be his permanent rotation. While I wish Amir Johnson was a part of that rotation, the clearly defined roles will benefit the players.
Rodney Stuckey. In the two games Stuckey started against Indiana, he averaged 25.5 points, 7 assists, 6.5 rebounds, and 2 steals. He also posted a ridiculous 80.4% effective field goal percentage in those games (50% is roughly average).

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Offensive Firepower. The Pacers have scored at least 117 points in all four of their April games. The Pistons need to dictate the tempo and slow the game down in order to push Indiana out of its comfort zone.
Danny Granger. The fourth year forward can score with the best of them. He missed time with a foot injury, but he is averaging 29 points per game since returning to the starting lineup 11 games ago. He has lit up the Pistons for 33 per contest this season, although that is partially a result of Michael Curry’s decision to use a small ball lineup earlier in the season. With the small ball lineup, Granger was able to dominate the much small RIP Hamilton.
Finishing Strong. The Pistons may be finding their rhythm, but the same could be said of the Pacers. Indiana has won six of nine.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 102, Indiana 106
Notes:

Jason Maxiell continues to outperform Amir Johnson on the stat sheet even though Johnson consistently outplays his counterpart for the simple reason that there is no stat for forcing the opposition to take a difficult shot. Maxiell was -14 while Johnson was +9, thus widening the already enormous gap between the players’ +/- numbers.
The Pistons were hammered on the glass in the first half, when they allowed 14 offensive rebounds. In the second half, the Pistons committed to boxing out and limited Indiana to one offensive board.
One night after doing a masterful defensive job on the Nets perimeter players, the Pacers got 81 points from their four perimeter players.
The Pistons spent far too much of the game conforming to Indiana’s preferred helter-skelter pace.
Roy Hibbert should be a quality rotation player for the next decade. He had six offensive rebounds and four blocks in just 20 minutes.

Pistons vs. Nets, 4.10.09

2009-04-10T18:35:00.004-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (38-40) at New Jersey Nets (32-46)
Spread: Pistons -8
My Pick: Pistons by 10

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Flat Finish. The Nets have lost 11 of their last 16. This team is counting down the days until it can add a forward in the lottery. The forward rotation of Ryan Anderson, Yi Jianlian, Trenton Hassell, Bobby Simmons, and Eduardo Najera is as bad as it gets in the NBA.
Road Trouble. The Nets have lost nine consecutive games played outside the tri-state area (they did win a road game in that stretch, but it was a short bus ride away against the Knicks). Also, the home team has won each of the first three games in the season series between the Pistons and Nets.
Contain Carter. Vince Carter has had success against the Pistons in the past, but much of that success occurred when Tayshaun Prince had to defend Richard Jefferson. With Jefferson gone, Prince has held Carter to just 11.3 points per game in their three matchups this season.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Devin Harris. Harris has torched the Pistons to the tune of 25.3 points and 7.3 assists per game this season. He has taken an absurd 43 free throws in those three games. Removing Iverson from the defensive equation should help matters, but Rodney Stuckey and to a lesser extent, Arron Afflalo have had their problems with Harris.
Momentum? Despite their recent struggles, the Nets played one of their best games of the season Wednesday in Boston. Playing against the defending champs, the Nets built a double digit lead early and had a chance to take the lead in the final seconds.
They Won’t. The Pistons are playing at home against an inferior team with playoff seeding at stake. It would be inexusable for the team to not win this game easily.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 100, New Jersey 93
Notes:

The bench won this game for Detroit. Kwame Brown, Arron Afflalo, and Jason Maxiell all played very well. Will Bynum was outstanding.
Bynum scored at least 20 points for the fifth time in 12 games. He is far more confident in his jump shot than he was earlier this year. As a result, he is consistently converting open looks that he typically passed up or missed earlier in the season.
Even ignoring the off-court issues, is there any rational argument that Iverson is a better basketball player than Will Bynum? If the consensus is that Iverson is worth the mid-level exception, would that make Bynum worth 7-8 million on the open market? (My answer: No, Iverson doesn’t warrant the mid level exception, although Bynum would.)
Despite the unremarkable final score, this game was an offensive showcase on both ends. Only a slow pace skewed the final numbers. The teams combined to make more than half of their shots, better than 40% of their threes, and committed just 15 turnovers.
Rodney Stuckey has taken heat for his defense at various points this season, but he deserves his share of credit for holding All Star Devin Harris to one point.
Rookies Ryan Anderson and Chris Douglas-Roberts played better than any other Nets last night. Anderson appears to provide everything the Nets hoped to receive from Yi Jianlian. CDR’s ability to get to the hoop and finish was positively Will Bynumesque.

Pistons at Knicks, 4.08.09

2009-04-08T19:09:00.005-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (37-40) at New York Knicks (30-48)
Spread: Pistons -3.5
My Pick: Pistons by 2

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

No Excuses. The Pistons had two days off, should have a fully healthy roster, and will face a bad basketball team. A loss tonight would be unacceptable.
Midlevel Starters. The Knicks handed Chris Duhon and Jared Jefferies contracts worth the midlevel exception. Both are capable backups who play sturdy defense but struggle to score. Unfortunatley for the Knicks, both are starting as the team rebuilds. (Edit: Apparently Jefferies lost his starting spot after failing to score in his last start.)
Giving Up. The Knicks have lost 11 of 13 and appear to have packed it in for the year. The good news for Michigan natives is that, partially as a result, two players with local ties may have a chance to score their first NBA points tonight. Former Wolverine Courtney Sims and Detroit Renaissance alum Joe Crawford should both be on the active roster tonight.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

RFAs. Once again, soon-to-be restricted free agents Nate Robinson and David Lee are easily the best players on this team. When the Knicks won at the Palace four weeks ago, Robinson torched the Pistons for 30 points while Lee chipped in 16 points and 18 rebounds.
Letdown Game. Sunday’s game against Charlotte was hugely important. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Pistons need to return to the brink of the lottery before they exert full effort again.
No Swagger. Rasheed Wallace says the Pistons’ “swagger will come with the playoffs.” (Freep Article) Apparently fans will have to suffer through five more games of swagger-less basketball

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 113, New York 86
Notes:

There’s bad defense, there’s horrible defense, and then there’s what the Knicks played in the first half. The Pistons – who average roughly 23 points per quarter – scored 21 points in the first 5:44.
Every Piston starter had at least eight points before halftime.
The logic behind the “seven-seconds-or-less” offense is that teams should be able to find a high-percentage shot before a defense is fully set. The Knicks ignored the “high-percentage” part of the equation.
The Knicks committed just five turnovers, but some of the shots they took were about as bad as turnovers.
Wilson Chandler shot the ball nicely, but he was brutal defensively.
Several Pistons played well, but RIP Hamilton and Antonio McDyess stood out. Rodney Stuckey, Rasheed Wallace, and Kwame Brown also had very nice games.
The Pistons won the rebounding battle 57-33.

Starting Big

2009-04-07T23:35:00.001-04:00

With the Allen Iverson fiasco taken care of, the Pistons are left with only one significant rotation question heading into the playoffs (assuming they qualify). Theoretically, the Pistons could consider starting the surprising Will Bynum ahead of Rodney Stuckey, but Bynum’s aggressive style has fit in nicely with the second unit. Michael Curry made it clear that he plans to keep Stuckey in the starting lineup. With the backcourt rotation settled, Michael Curry needs to decide which of his five big men to start and which two of the remaining three bigs will see the bulk of the bench minutes.

When Rasheed Wallace returned from injury last week, Michael Curry hinted that he may keep Kwame Brown in the starting lineup along with Antonio McDyess. As I see it, there are five possible combinations of big men the Pistons could start in the frountcourt.

Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess.
Wallace and McDyess are the two best big men Curry has, but if he starts both, that greatly weakens his bench. Wallace and McDyess are the only Piston bigs with reliable outside shots. As a result, the Pistons like to have at least one on the court at all times in order to spread the floor. In the regular season – if Curry starts both – there will be stretches where the bench struggles to score. This is mitigated in the playoffs when Curry is likely to increase the playing time for both Wallace and McDyess, thereby ensuring that one of the two is on the court at all times.
Kwame Brown and Antonio McDyess.
Chris McCosky of The Detroit News and Matt Watson of DetroitBadBoys.com both endorsed this arrangement, although they stated their opinions under the assumption that Iverson would remain a part of the rotation. According to 82games.com, the Pistons have performed far better when Kwame Brown plays alongside either Antonio McDyess or Amir Johnson as opposed to playing with Rasheed Wallace or Jason Maxiell. If the Pistons intend to pair Brown and Johnson, they should bring them off the bench behind Wallace and McDyess. The more plausible way to start Brown would be to play him with McDyess. That arrangement gives the starting unit strong rebounding and interior defense, while it adds a scoring threat to the bench in the form of Wallace. While this makes some sense, I can’t support benching Wallace. His all-around game has been more valuable than the play of either McDyess or Brown and the +/- numbers back me up, even if PER gives the edge to McDyess.
Rasheed Wallace and Amir Johnson.
For all of the reasons stated above, it makes plenty of sense to play McDyess and Brown together. With that said, the Wallace/Johnson combination has been even more effective than the McDyess/Brown pairing. Also, Antonio McDyess has stated on numerous occasions that he is more comfortable with a bench role, while Wallace has started nearly every game he has played over the last 10 seasons. More importantly, in the playoffs, Wallace has typically played about 35 minutes per game, while McDyess has averaged less than two thirds of that amount. Even last year, with Ben Wallace and Chris Webber out of the way, McDyess played only 27.5 minutes per playoff game. Wallace has proven he can handle heavy minutes while McDyess has not, so if the Pistons are only going to start one of the two, it should be Wallace.
Rasheed Wallace and Jason Maxiell.
As much as I prefer the previous arrangement, Michael Curry would likely opt for this one if he decides to start Wallace but not McDyess. In my estimation, that would be a colossal mistake. Going back to 82games.com’s “player pairs,” the Pistons have not outscored their opponents when you pair Jason Maxiell with any player currently on the Piston roster. For the reasons outlined here, Maxiell struggles because he is a 6’6 player who cannot shoot or dribble well enough to overcome his relative lack of size. He does several things well, but defensive rebounding, shooting, and man defense are not among them. Maxiell should not be starting for a playoff team until those things change.
Rasheed Wallace and Kwame Brown.
If Curry decides he wants to separate Wallace and McDyess and start Brown, he may test this route for the reasons explained under option 3. Brown has been a force defensively and on the glass, so he could prove valuable enough to start during the playoffs. Wallace’s game would seem to compliment Brown’s nicely, but thus far the combination has not performed well. The downfall of this lineup would lie with the bench, as Wallace and Brown are the only centers on the roster.

In summary, Michael Curry has several logical choices, but the best move would be to start Wallace alongside either McDyess or Johnson. It appears that Johnson has fallen out of the rotation. If that is the case, Curry should maintain the lineup he used against Charlotte, which featured Wallace and McDyess. While this hurts the bench during the regular season, this should be less of a problem in the playoffs.

Pistons vs. Bobcats, 4.05.09

2009-04-05T15:40:00.004-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (36-40) vs. Charlotte Bobcats (34-42)
Spread: Pistons -2
My Pick: Pistons by 6

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Road Woes. The Bobcats have been much better at home than on the road this season. Even with their recent hot streak, the Bobcats have only won two of their past six road contests. On the other hand, the road team has won each of the first three meetings between these teams this season.
Boris Diaw. The Bobcat offense is usually only as efficient as its versatile forward. In his last five games against Detroit, Diaw has averaged a measly 6.2 points per game on 32.4% shoting. Over his career, he averages just 6 points per game against Detroit, but several of those games took place when Diaw was an Atlanta Hawk trying to find his footing in the league.
If It Ain’t Rough... In recent years, a favorite cliché among Piston plays has been “If it ain’t rough, it ain’t right.” The implication is that when it matters most and the Pistons backs are up against the wall, they play their best. That will be put to the test today, as the Pistons play their most important regular season game in a long, long time.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

2009. Since the calendar flipped, the Pistons 17-29, while the Bobcats are seven games better, at 23-21. That says it all about how this season has gone for the Pistons.
Back to Back. The Pistons have dropped nine of the last ten games they have played on the second half of a back to back. The Bobcats had the day off yesterday and will arrive at today’s game with younger, fresher legs.
Rotation Stability. The Bobcats have one of the most clear-cut eight-man rotations in the NBA. Occasionally one or two additional players see spot minutes, but the same eight players see the bulk of the minutes every game. In contrast, the Piston rotation has been in constant flux all season. (Depending on Raja Bell's calf, Cartier Martin could crack the rotation for the time being. Still, under Larry Brown, each player's role on this team is more clearly defined than is the case with any other team in the league.)

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 104, Charlotte 97
Notes:

Will Bynum! Bynum almost singlehandedly secured a Piston victory in the most important game of the regular season. He scored a franchise record 26 points in the fourth quarter and he needed just six field goal attempts to do so. The man who could not find a place in the NBA a season ago now leads the Pistons in PER by a wide margin.
Two Piston guards carried this team to victory. Those Piston guards were not Rodney Stuckey, RIP Hamilton, or Allen Iverson, but rather Bynum and Arron Afflalo. Afflalo’s inconsistent jumper was dead-on last night and his defense keyed a 15-3 fourth quarter run.
The downside to losing Hamilton to an ejection was that with Bynum and Afflalo on the court, the Bobcats were able to play their two best guards – D. J. Augustin and Ray Felton – together. Neither is capable of guarding Hamilton, but with Hamilton out, Charlotte was able to play its five best players down the stretch. RIP’s inability to maintain his composure was unacceptable given the importance of the game.
Rasheed played well and showed no ill effects of playing 37 minutes. He should be fully healthy just in time for the playoffs.

Pistons at 76ers, 4.04.09

2009-04-04T13:00:00.002-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (36-39) at Philadelphia 76ers (39-35)
Spread: 76ers -3
My Pick: Pistons by 8

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

No AI. The Pistons are 9-1 in games where Rasheed plays, but Iverson does not. That recipe should be in play the rest of the season.
Rest. Antonio McDyess and Tayshaun Prince, among others, badly needed the two-day break the Pistons just received.
No Thaddeus Young. The über-athletic forward is on the shelf with an ankle injury. Without Young or Elton Brand, the Pistons have a clearly superior active roster.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Rough Stretch. The Pistons have lost eight of their last 11, so they don’t exactly have much momentum.
Wachovia Center. The 76ers have won five of their last six home games. The Pistons wish Philly had won the sixth – a game against Charlotte.
Distractions. If the Piston players have too spent too much time worrying about Iverson and too little time worrying about this matchup, they could struggle.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 90, Philadelphia 95
Notes:

In a role reversal from last year’s playoffs, Andre Iguodala dominated Tayshaun Prince. Iguodala scored 31 points on 19 shots, many of which were dunks.
The Piston offense went through Kwame Brown in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter, they would have benefitted from an offensive force as consistent as Brown was early. That says more about the Pistons than it does about Brown, although Kwame did play very nicely.
Will Bynum was awesome in the first half, but invisible in the second.
Andre Miller went wherever he wanted with the ball.
The 76ers, without Elton Brand and without Thaddeus Young, badly lack reliable offensive options. The fact that they made 48 percent of their field goals in the game underscores how bad Detroit’s defense – especially in transition – was in this game.
If there’s a good reason Amir Johnson did not play, I’d like to hear it. His DNP is big part of the explanation for the previous bullet point.

Iverson Sent Home.

2009-04-03T18:58:00.006-04:00

Breaking News. Allen Iverson has played his last game as a Piston.

The Pistons announced Friday they were shutting the all-star and former NBA scoring champion down for the rest of the season, including the playoffs. Pistons president Joe Dumars met with Iverson and his agent, Leon Rose, over the last two days, and the feeling was that it was no longer in Iverson's nor the Pistons' best interest for him to continue trying to play.
--Chris McCosky, Detroit News

Pistons at Nets, 4.01.09

2009-04-01T19:08:00.004-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (36-38) at New Jersey Nets (30-44)
Spread: PK
My Pick: Pistons by 8

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Free Amir. With Rasheed Wallace out, Amir should get a chance to contribute against New Jersey. New Jersey lacks a power forward who can make Amir pay for any mistakes, so Johnson should see heavy minutes tonight.
Tayshaun Prince. With Richard Jefferson gone, New Jersey’s small forward situation has been a disaster. Prince has averaged 17.5 points and 9 rebounds per game in the first two meetings of the season between these teams.
Kwame Brown. The Nets only have three players who score. Kwame should be able to take Brook Lopez out of the picture. If Tayshaun can do the same to Vince Carter, the Nets entire offense will have to revolve around Devin Harris.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Could Curry Cave? When RIP Hamilton complained about a bench role earlier this year, Curry made him a starter (and rightfully so). Now that Iverson has complained about his role, there is a possibility Curry will again succumb to his stars. If Iverson’s role increases, the Pistons’ chance at a victory will take a major hit.
Sheed’s Out. Rasheed is suspended for tonight’s game because he picked up his 16th technical foul last night. While Amir Johnson should pick some of the slack, he cannot abuse Ryan Anderson and Yi Jianlian on the block the way Sheed could have.
Devin Harris. Harris dropped 38 points on Detroit earlier this season. The Pistons need to prevent that from happening tonight.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 98, New Jersey 111
Notes:

The Piston defense was pathetic. The Nets have some nice pieces – three to be exact – but they have no business scoring 111 points in a slow game. Keyon Dooling and Brook Lopez, among others, torched the Pistons.
Allen Iverson was unspeakably awful. He then had the audacity to complain about his role after the game.
The heavy minutes Antonio McDyess has been playing have finally caught up to him. He is averaging 5.3 points and 7.7 rebounds over his last three games. With all of the talk about benching Rasheed, maybe it is Dice who is better-suited for a bench role that could limit his minutes.
At the risk of beating the metaphorical dead horse, I’ll point out that Amir Johnson watched several potential offensive rebounds bounce off of his fingertips, was a non-factor offensively, and nevertheless, Detroit outscored New Jersey by 6 the 25 minutes Johnson was on the court, but was outscored by 17 the other 23 minutes. He makes good things happen when he is on the floor, even if they sometimes aren’t obvious and don’t show up in the box score.

Pistons at Cavaliers, 3.31.09

2009-03-31T17:57:00.003-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (36-37) at Cleveland Cavaliers (60-13)
Spread: Cavs -10
My Pick: Cavs by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

All Hands on Deck? If Rasheed Wallace can play (he’s questionable) the Pistons will have both a healthy roster and a logical starting lineup for the first time since Chauncey Billups suited up in the red, white, and blue. (And yes, this means I am strongly opposed to this idea from Chris McCosky. More on that later.) Update: Sheed is back, but will come off the bench for now.
Small Guards. Both of the Pistons’ primary backcourt backups – Allen Iverson and Will Bynum – are shorter than six feet. Against most opponents, that would be a problem, but Cleveland’s top-three backcourt options are all 6-3 and under.
They’ve Done It. The Pistons beat Cleveland earlier this year in one of Allen Iverson’s best games of the seasons. They had a chance to do so a second time before Iverson chose not to play defense in the fourth quarter.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

King James. Cleveland has this LeBron guy who plays small forward and is really good at basketball. He happens to have the most absurd combination of size, quickness, skill, and athleticism that the NBA has ever seen. He might pose a problem for the Pistons.
Quicken Loans. The Cavs are 34-1 at home this season. That 97.1% winning percentage is as daunting as it gets.
Confused Curry. Michael Curry has done a much better job coaching when injuries force his hand. When he has had a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal, he has made some perplexing decisions.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 73, Cleveland 79
Notes:

Is there anyone not excited to see the post-Iverson, post-Sheed Pistons? This team plays much harder without Sheed and much better without AI. The challenge will be using the cap space to replace their talent.
Iverson whined to the media about the fact that he played 18 minutes. I agree that 18 minutes was a mistake; 12 – or maybe zero – would have been more appropriate.
LeBron was the beneficiary of some "stupid-star calls," but Sheed gets his share of calls too. Sheed is bright enough to know that yelling at the refs does not accomplish anything productive. He deserves his suspension for tonight’s game.
No Piston played more than 34 minutes. Normally I would applaud a coach for resting his regulars before the playoffs, but a playoff berth is far from secured.
The Pistons executed a great game plan on LeBron for 43 minutes. Then LeBron showed why he is the best closer in basketball.
Walter Herrmann was surprisingly competent the few possessions he defended LeBron.
While my post-game gripes lie with AI and Sheed, the Pistons lost because the Cavaliers played awesome defense in the second half. Also, Stuckey, RIP, and McDyess failed to convert too many makeable shots.

Defending Amir's Defense

2009-03-30T23:55:00.001-04:00

The Pistons have two talented young power forwards in Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson. Both are high-energy players who excel at offensive rebounding, shot blocking, and finishing around the basket. While neither player has well-polished skills, they make up for their shortcomings by playing with boundless energy.

Maxiell does many things better than his younger counterpart. Maxiell makes better decisions defending the pick and roll, is a stronger post defender, has a more polished post game, and makes far fewer mistakes such as setting moving screens or committing unnecessary fouls. It’s more difficult to pinpoint the areas where Johnson outshines Maxiell. Johnson is a better rebounder and shot blocker, but Maxiell is ahead in most other statistical categories, which is reflected in his lead of nearly two points in PER.

Despite what the statistics say, Amir Johnson is a better player than Maxiell. While Maxiell leads to Johnson in most traditional statistics, Johnson dominates one crucial category: opponents points allowed.

With Jason Maxiell on the court this season, the Pistons have allowed 111.8 points per 100 possessions (the league average is near 105) With Amir Johnson on the court the Pistons give up just 102.1 point per 100 possessions. Offensively, the Pistons offense gains a modest 0.6 points per 100 possessions with Maxiell in the game as opposed to Johnson. In total, the Pistons are a net 9.1 points per 100 possessions better with Johnson on the court than with Maxiell. To put that in perspective, a net swing of 9.1 points per 100 possessions is roughly the difference between a 30-win team and a 55-win team in today’s NBA. The numbers were similar last season, when the Pistons were a net 8.1 points per 100 possessions better with Johnson on the court than with Maxiell.

The explanation for the disparity lies in the “little things” that do not show up in box scores. Amir Johnson is four inches taller than Maxiell and is therefore much better at contesting shots. Johnson also has better lateral quickness which allows him to close on perimeter shooters and recover to the basket more quickly than Maxiell can. Also, partly as a result of the height disparity, Johnson is much better at keeping possessions alive on the offensive end. Even on plays where Johnson does not corral the offensive rebound, he frequently tips missed shots to teammates or causes an opponent to knock the ball out of bounds. Lastly, Johnson’s superior defensive rebounding and shot blocking are crucial.

What Amir Johnson lacks in skill and basketball IQ, he makes up for with size, athleticism, and tenacity. Jason Maxiell is also athletic and plays with as much tenacity as anyone, but the reality is that 6’6 players who struggle to shoot or dribble rarely survive in the NBA. It should also be noted that whereas Johnson has the enormous hands one would expect on a 6’10 athlete, Maxiell has relatively small hands for an interior player. Numerous balls near Maxiell end up just out of his reach or bounce off of his hands.

The goal of an NBA team is to outscore its opponent. On a per possession basis, the Pistons have done that better with Amir Johnson on the court than with any other player on the team. His minutes have been jerked around all season, but it is time Amir Johnson becomes a permanent fixture in the rotation.

Pistons vs. 76ers, 3.29.09

2009-03-29T17:41:00.003-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-37) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (37-34)
Spread: Pistons -3
My Pick: 76ers by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Prince on Iguodala. Prince harassed Iguodala into a disastrous playoff series last year. Iguodala finished with a 33% field goal percentage while trying to shoot over Prince.
Ready to RIP. RIP carried the Piston offense last night. If the 76ers leave Willie Green on him, he should be able to do the same tonight.
Threes. The 76ers are the league’s worst three-point shooting team. The team’s only threats from deep are Thaddeus Young, who does opponents a favor when he settles for threes, and the re-discovered Donyell Marshall, who is too slow to play defense.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Tired Dice. Dice has been playing heavy minutes since Rasheed went down. After playing 37 hard minutes last night, he may not have his legs against Philly.
Youngn’s. Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams are loaded with talent and athleticism. They have hurt the Pistons before and could do the same tonight.
Confidence. The 76ers played great against Detroit in last year’s playoffs. Since then, Philly has improved while Detroit has taken a step (or two) back.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 101, Philadelphia 97
Notes:

The Piston starters made 17 of their first 21 field goal attempts. The Pistons trailed by 1 at the half despite 61% shooting.
Allen Iverson returned and wasted no time in reminding everyone that he is enormously talented, yet does little to positively impact this team. He has an awesome handle and is lightning quick, but too often, his decision-making leads to broken plays and/or forced shots. He was only attributed with two turnovers, but his high-risk passes led to a far greater number of turnovers and near-turnovers.
Amir Johnson botched several scoring opportunities, left Andre Iguodala too early while hedging on a pick allowing Iggy to drill a three, and failed to box out Thaddeus Young on a crucial play which resulted in an offensive rebound and dunk. Despite all of those problems, Johnson was as important as any Piston in the win. He kept several possessions alive by attacking the offensive glass and was worlds better than Jason Maxiell and Walter Herrmann defensively. Credit Michael Curry for entrusting Johnson with fourth quarter minutes. Johnson was +10 in 19 minutes off the bench.
I expected Tayshaun Prince to neutralize Andre Iguodala with his defense, but instead, he did so on the other end. Prince scored 21 points on just 11 shots to outplay Iguodala, who needed eight more shots and three more free throws to score eight more points than Prince.
PER stud Marreese Speights had one of his worst performances of the season.
Rodney Stuckey had a strong all-around performance, but Will Bynum was rewarded with crunch-time point guard duties after he sparked a 14-2 run early in the fourth quarter.

Pistons at Wizards, 3.28.09

2009-03-28T20:30:00.001-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-37) at Washington Wizards (17-56)
Spread: Pistons -6
My Pick: Pistons by 8

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Return of RIP. Arron Afflalo played well in spurts, but the Piston offense badly missed Hamilton. He should be back in the lineup tonight.
Weak Opponent. The Pistons have been losing games, but each of their last five losses has been against a playoff team. The 17-56 Wizards might be the tonic the Pistons need.
PG Defense. Depending on who’s healthy, some combination of Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton, and Juan Dixon will play point guard for Washington. Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum could each have huge games.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

No Sheed. Kwame Brown plays hard and is a strong defender, but he doesn’t have the skill set to compensate for the absence of Wallace.
Slumping 'Stons. The Pistons have lost eight of their last 11 games. No game, even one against the lowly Wizards, can be considered a gimme.
Hibachi! Gilbert Arenas is expected to return tonight. If his shot is on, he’s explosive offensively.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 98, Washington 96
Notes:

Kwame “Stone Hands” Brown almost cost the Pistons the game when he failed to secure a rebound on the final possession. Brown’s inability to catch passes and rebounds is easily his biggest weakness.
Even when Amir Johnson fails to fill up the stat sheet with much more than fouls, good things happen when he’s in the game. The Pistons outscored Washington 20-16 with Johnson in the game which helped build upon his already impressive +/- numbers for the season.
The Piston bench was awesome in the first half and terrible in the second.
Jason Maxiell had a big game, highlighted by five offensive rebounds, two blocks, and two dunks.
RIP returned to the lineup with a bang. The work he has put in on his three point shot has really paid off. During his first two seasons in Detroit, he made 50 threes while shooting under 27% in 160 games. Over the last four seasons, he has made more than 50 threes every year while converting 40% of his attempts. Last night, he nailed five triples on his way to 31 points.
JaVale McGee is absurdly athletic.

Pistons vs. Lakers, 3.26.09

2009-03-26T17:47:00.002-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-36) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (56-14)
Spread: Lakers -8
My Pick: Lakers by 12

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Recent History. Including the Finals, the Pistons are 12-3 against the Lakers in their last 15 meetings.
Kwame Brown. Kwame did a great job defending Pau Gasol the first time these teams meet this season. He will need to repeat that performance for Detroit to have a chance.
Tayshaun Prince. Prince is as good as it gets defending Kobe Bryant. Prince has also had success offensively, averaging 21.1 points per game in his last nine games against the Lakers.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Better. The Lakers are a much better team than the Pistons.
Healthier. The Lakers are a much healthier team than the Pistons.
Hotter. The Lakers are a much hotter team than the Pistons. While the Pistons have lost seven games in the past 20 days, the Lakers have not lost seven games in the past two months.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 77, Los Angeles 92
Notes:

Will Bynum was incredible. He gave the Pistons life by sparking a 26-5 second quarter run. In the second half, he continued to play well, but he had little help from his Piston teammates. Bynum finished with 25 points and 11 assists. Bynum now leads the Pistons with a 17.59 PER. That says as much about the Pistons as it does about Bynum.
The offense of choice – give the ball to Tayshaun, get out of the way – was not a good one. The problem is that without RIP, AI, or Sheed, the Pistons lacked alternatives.
The Pistons were outscored by 37 with Prince on the court.
Kobe Bryant + Pau Gasol + Triangle Offense = Lots of open looks for every Laker. The Lakers did not shoot particularly well against Detroit, but that offense is unstoppable if their perimeter players are converting open shots.
Jordan Farmar has taken a noticeable step back after an impressive sophomore campaign. Derek Fisher is a liability on defense. He couldn’t stay in front of Will Bynum. Quick guards like Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo, and Deron Williams routinely abuse Fisher. Point guard play should be right next to interior defense (if Bynum is not at full strength) on the list of the Lakers’ biggest worries for the playoffs.
With RIP and Sheed out and Prince and Stuckey struggling, the Piston offense was lacking punch, to put it mildly.
On the first play of the second half, Antonio McDyess did his best to compensate for Rasheed Wallace’s absence. Dice was called for a foul on Lamar Odom which he disagreed with. After Odom missed the first free throw, Dice shouted “Ball Don’t Lie” twice.
For those who prefer hearing Sheed’s protests and watching Piston wins, there is good news; Sheed and RIP are expected to return Saturday.

Pistons at Bulls, 3.24.09

2009-03-24T19:25:00.003-04:00

I will be participating in a Live Blog (link) on PistonPowered.com during the game. Piston Powered is a Detroit Piston's blog that is a part of the ESPN.com TrueHoop blog network. During the Live Blog, I will discuss the game, the state of the team, and will be available to answer questions. Thanks to Dan Feldman of Piston Powered for helping set this up.

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-35) at Chicago Bulls (33-38)
Spread: Bulls -5
My Pick: Bulls by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Tired Bulls. The Bulls played a close game in Washington last night. Only eight Bulls played and they had to fly home less than 24 hours ago. They should have tired legs tonight.
Mediocrity. The Bulls have a glut of players who can be considered above average, but absolutely no one who is great. John Salmons has been their best player lately. Ask the Kings how well that works out. (Note: Derrick Rose has the potential to be great, but he has a long way to go.)
Tyrus Thomas. Mr. Inconsistent tends to play great against the Pistons. If he has one of his periodic big games, he could hurt the Pistons.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Home Cooking. The home team has won the last four matchups between these two teams.
Come Back Sheed. Kwame Brown can't score. Jason Maxiell is too short to excel at power forward. Amir Johnson can't earn his coach's trust. Rasheed has none of those problems, but he does have an injured calf that should keep him out of the lineup.
Antonio McDyess. If the Pistons have been losing with the way McDyess has been playing, what will happen when he reverts to playing like a normal player? McDyess cannot keep up his recent tear forever, right?

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 91, Chicago 99
Notes:

The Bulls understood the playoff implications and acted accordingly. Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, and John Salmons each played 46 minutes.
Tyrus Thomas simultaneously showed why he has the talent to be great and why it's so frustrating that he rarely plays as well as he can. He was the best player on the floor all game.
Will Bynum was awesome. Other Pistons played well, but this squad requires super-human efforts to overcome all of its injuries.
If the Bulls had any chance to win a playoff series (they don't), there would be a ton of logic behind starting Hinrich ahead of Derrick Rose.

Ready Reserves

2009-03-24T00:52:00.001-04:00

The standings show that the Pistons have been hurt by recent injuries. The Pistons have lost five of seven since Rasheed Wallace joined Allen Iverson on the injured list. RIP Hamilton has missed four games during that stretch, three of which were Piston losses. While the Pistons clearly miss their stars, there is a definite silver lining around the cloud of losses.

In the absence of three former All Stars, several Piston role players – most notably Will Bynum, Arron Afflalo, Kwame Brown, and Walter Herrmann – have had a chance to play extended minutes. The benefits are twofold. One positive is that the players have sufficient time to get comfortable and find a rhythm on the court. As a result, the coaching staff is able to discern what each player can offer the team and determine who deserves to be a part of the playoff rotation.

Will Bynum is doing his best to turn Allen Iverson into the modern day Wally Pipp. Bynum has electrified crowds with his ability to break down defenses and get into the paint. In the month of March, Bynum has poured in 9.8 points in just 18.8 minutes per game. Bynum still needs to improve his shooting – his effective field goal percentage is just 45.5% and he has not made a three all month – but his ability to create instant offense has been a welcome contribution off the bench. The fact that he has as many steals as turnovers this month also helps matters.

Bynum has proven to be a useful backup point guard, although it remains to be seen how many minutes he would play if everyone gets healthy. Even if his minutes are cut the remainder of this season, he has an inside track at the backup point guard duties and an increased role upon the inevitable departure of Allen Iverson this offseason.

Afflalo played in 51 of the team’s first 52 games, but watched his minutes slowly dry up as the season progressed. Afflalo was squeezed from the rotation partly due to a poor January, but also in part because Michael Curry went away from the small ball lineups that allowed for a rotation with six perimeter players. In the first 12 games after the All Star break, Afflalo played just 54 minutes total.

When the injuries began to pile up, Afflalo re-entered the regular rotation. Over the past six games, he has averaged just over 30 minutes per game. In that stretch, he is averaging 10.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 2 three pointers per game with an effective field goal percentage of 56.25%. While the stats won’t blow anyone away, Afflalo’s accurate outside shooting and tough perimeter defense have been a huge plus for a team sorely lacking in those two areas.

Arron Afflalo is in a similar position to Bynum. He is clearly deserving of a spot in the rotation, but it is entirely possible his minutes will be squeezed should Michael Curry have his full contingent of players healthy. As is the case with Bynum, Afflalo should be assured of a more significant role next season.

Kwame Brown has lived up to his four-million-dollar salary with his recent play in place of Rasheed Wallace. While no one will ever confuse the two offensively, Brown has proven to be a sturdy post defender. Over the past five games the Pistons have outscored their opponents by 31 points with Brown in the game, but have been outscored by 30 with him on the bench. Brown has averaged 8.0 points 8.4 rebounds in 29.4 minutes over that stretch, despite often playing alongside rebounding machine Antonio McDyess.

For a while, Brown appeared to be the odd man out of the big man rotation. Based on his recent play, he seems to have surpassed Amir Johnson, if not Jason Maxiell, in Michael Curry’s pecking order. All three should be expected to continue to jostle for position during the remaining few weeks of the season.

During one stretch of 18 games, Walter Herrmann played 11 minutes total. Given that the Pistons have yearned for better three point shooting all season, it was inevitable that he would get another chance. Over the last month, he has gotten that chance, but has produced mixed results. Herrmann has played in 15 of the Pistons’ last 16 games. In those 15 games, he has averaged just less than 5 points per game in 14 minutes of action. He has converted 14 of 39 (35.8%) from behind the arc and 14 of 32 (43.8%) inside it.

Since Herrmann brings almost nothing to the table outside of his shooting, his mediocre efficiency will not get it done. In the last two games, Herrmann played well against the Clippers and hit a crucial three against Miami, so there may be signs of life. Herrmann needs to build on that if he hopes to continue playing. The more likely result is that Herrmann joins Ronald Dupree, Maurice Evans, Carlos Delfino, and Jarvis Hayes on the list of players who failed to secure the role of Tayshaun Prince’s backup.

While the Pistons have learned a great deal about those four players, the results have been mixed. Will Bynum and Arron Afflalo have played well, but a healthy Piston squad has a glut of guards that would limit potential playing time for either. Brown and Herrmann had a better chance to secure additional minutes, but the play of each has been up and down.

At the very least, the Pistons’ role players have used the injuries to the stars to gain game experience and prepare themselves for the playoffs. While it was important for the role players to gain experience, the ultimate goal is to win the games. For that to happen, the Pistons need their stars healthy and their lesser players to continue to produce, but to do so in lesser roles and fewer minutes. The reserves have proven their worth as complimentary pieces. The losses are mounting based on a lack of stars for them compliment.

Pistons vs. Heat, 3.22.09

2009-03-22T11:35:00.003-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (34-34) vs. Miami Heat (36-32)
Spread: Pistons -2
My Pick: Pistons by 6

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Win:

Road Trouble. The Heat will be playing the final game of a road trip that has started 0-3. They are 1-6 in their last seven road games.
Said Who? In ESPN’s Daily Dime, Mark Jackson states: “I think the Heat are clearly closer to competing for a championship, and if you asked both Dumars and Riley, they would have to agree with me.” I think he is clearly wrong, especially regarding Joe Dumars' opinion. Miami wasted its potential cap space on Jermaine O’Neal, is looking at a draft pick in the late teens, and has no one outside of Wade and Michael Beasley with the talent to be above average NBA starter. Other than that, Championship here they come!
Board War. Miami is last among probably playoff teams in rebound rate. Detroit has been awesome on the glass during the last several games. That trend should continue today.

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Lose:

Sunday. The Pistons are an embarrassing 2-11 on Sundays.
Wear and Tear. Eventually, the heavy minutes Tayshaun Prince and Antonio McDyess have been playing will affect their play.
Dwyane Wade. Wade is dealing with an injured hip, but if he can play, he can dominate. Wade has played the best basketball of anyone not named LeBron this season.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 96, Miami 101
Notes:

This was one the most exciting, well-played games Detroit has been involved in all season.
In a vacuum, Dwyane Wade is awesome. Compared to other NBA shooting guards, Wade is easily the best. Kobe Bryant wishes he had Wade’s athleticism.
Jamario Moon treats the hardwood like a trampoline.
Proof steals are a terrible measure of defense: Mario Chalmers tallies four times as many steals per minute as Tayshaun Prince yet Chalmers was the worst defender on the court while Prince was the best.
Jermaine O’Neal scored two clutch baskets, but otherwise played very poorly on both ends of the floor. How does someone his size pull down only one defensive rebound in 34 minutes?

Pistons vs. Clippers, 3.20.2009

2009-03-20T19:19:00.004-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (33-34) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (17-51)
Spread: Pistons -8
My Pick: Pistons by 7

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Win:

The Clippers. They stink, they put forth as little effort as they can get away with, and their coach has lost the team.
Tayshaun Prince. After being hounded by Ron Artest, Prince should have a field day against notoriously poor defender Al Thornton. Prince should feel like he's playing against JV players the day after facing a school's varsity team.
The Role Players. Will Bynum, Arron Afflalo and Kwame Brown have all played the best basketball of the season lately. As the Pistons continue to deal with injuries, those three should get plenty of opportunities.

Three Reasons the Pistons Will Lose:

The Grizzlies. If the Pistons can lose home games to the Grizzlies and the Knicks, anything is possible.
Health Swap. The last time these two teams met, the Clippers were missing half of their rotation. Tonight, it is the Pistons who will be undermanned.
Eric Gordon. The rookie has only improved since dropping 31 on the Pistons in January.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 108, Los Angeles 90
Notes:

The Pistons were without four of their top-five scorers and still beat a healthy Clipper squad by 18.
Antonio McDyess continues to put up Dwight Howard-esque stat lines. He kept the Pistons in the game during the first half.
Will Bynum, Tayshaun Prince, and Walter Herrmann all had great games. Much of Tayshaun’s success resulted from Mike Dunleavy’s odd decision to let Baron Davis defend Prince for a large portion of the second half.
Eric Gordon and Zach Randolph both have tons of talent. The difference is Gordon has the basketball IQ to match his athletics gifts. The former Hoosier scored 22 points on only nine shots.
The Pistons continue to avoid turnovers and grab tons of offensive rebounds.
The Clippers should be embarrassed about the lack of defense they played in the second half.

Dodging a McBullet

2009-03-19T18:14:00.000-04:00

At the 24:20 mark this Bill Simmons podcast, where Simmons interviewed Rockets GM Daryl Morey, Simmons asked Morey if he came close to trading Tracy McGrady last summer. During Morey’s response, he named only one team as a potential suitor for T-Mac. “Detroit did have interest [in trading for McGrady.] It just never worked out for both sides,” Morey said. The fact that the Rockets were unable to make a deal work with Detroit is one of the luckiest moments in Piston franchise history. While Iverson has been a disaster in Detroit, acquiring McGrady would have been significantly worse for the Pistons.

Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson have quite a bit in common. Both are former superstars who have failed to adjust to diminishing athleticism. When they play, Iverson and McGrady are both volume shooters who rely far too heavily on contested jump shots. This season, both players have an effective field goal percentage below 44 percent, well below the league average. Neither plays excels on defense or does much to help his team outside of scoring, so if they are shooting that ineffectively, they are marginal players at best.

The parallels do not end there. Both players have missed significant time this season with “injuries.” In both cases, there has been rampant speculation that the amount of time missed and the severity of the injuries do not align. Neither team should be too upset if the players are exaggerating their injuries. The Pistons have been much better without Iverson this year and the same can be said of the Rockets without McGrady.

Despite rapidly declining production, Iverson and McGrady are two of the six highest paid players in the NBA. Contracts also happen to be the point of differentiation between the two players who peaked more than half a decade ago. Allen Iverson’s contract expires this season. His departure will afford the Pistons unrivaled financial flexibility during an offseason in which few teams will be looking to spend money. McGrady, on the other hand, is owed over 23 million dollars next season. Had the Pistons acquired McGrady, their impending cap space would have evaporated.

It is hard to know what trade possibilities were discussed, but if the Rockets passed on an opportunity to deal McGrady for Chauncey Billups, Daryl Morey may have cost his team an NBA Championship. A starting lineup of Billups, Battier, Artest, Scola, and Yao would have rivaled the Lakers as the best in the West. Instead, Houston is just another second-tier team out West.

While the Rockets missed a potential home run, the Pistons avoided hitting into a double play. A trade for McGrady would have made the Pistons worse in the short term and delayed their financial flexibility, when compared to a deal for Iverson. The trade for Allen Iverson has not worked out well for the Pistons. Just know that it could have turned out much worse.

Pistons at Rockets, 3.18.09

2009-03-18T13:17:00.010-04:00

I will be participating in a Live Blog (link) on PistonPowered.com during the game. Piston Powered is a Detroit Piston's blog that is a part of the ESPN.com TrueHoop blog network. During the Live Blog, I will discuss the game, the state of the team, and will be available to answer questions. Thanks to Dan Feldman of Piston Powered for helping set this up.

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (33-33) at Houston Rockets (44-25)
Spread: Rockets -9
My Pick: Rockets by 12

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Man Down. The Rockets will not have standout reserve Carl Landry, who, like Rasheed Wallace, has a calf injury. Unlike Rasheed Wallace, Landry sustained his calf injury via a gunshot wound.
80 Inches of Flu. Yao Ming is expected to play, but he has been battling the flu this week. With Tracy McGrady sidelined, the Rockets need the offense to run through Yao. If he is ineffective, the Rocket offense may be reduced to contested Ron Artest jump shots.
Shot Selection. Speaking of Artest jump shots, he’s near the league lead in ill-advised shot attempts. Occasionally his contested heaves go in, but his current shooting slump – 34% on field goals in his last five games – could easily continue tonight if he settles for jumpers. Von Wafer and Aaron Brooks also have a penchant for launching some head-scratchers.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Rocket Defense. The Rockets began the season as one of the top defensive teams in the NBA. Losing T-Mac and flipping Rafer Alston for Kyle Lowry puts them at the top of their class in the West.
Texas Two-Step. This is the fifth consecutive season the Pistons will play consecutive road games in Texas. Entering today’s game, the Pistons are 1-3 in the second half of the Texas trip.
Ailing Pistons. Iverson is out. Rasheed is doubtful. RIP is questionable. Afflalo is banged-up. Stuckey looks worn down. Will Bynum, Jason Maxiell, Kwame Brown, and Walter Herrmann will have to drastically out-perform their roles for the Pistons to have a chance.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 101, Houston 106 (2OT)
Notes:

The Pistons are starting to pile up the moral victories. They played very well considering all the missing pieces.
Normally Tayshaun Prince steps up when the Pistons are ailing, but Ron Artest was all over Prince last night.
Arron Afflalo was awesome, scoring 24 points on 13 shots. He is 24-46 with 13 made three pointers since the All-Star break. That’s good for a ridiculous 66.3% effective field goal percentage. (The league average hovers around 50%)
Prince played 55 minutes while McDyess played 51.
Once again, the Pistons dominated the glass and the turnover battle, but failed to overcome a huge disparity in field goal percentage.

Pistons at Mavericks, 3.17.09

2009-03-17T15:35:00.005-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (33-32) at Dallas Mavericks (40-27)
Spread: Mavericks -5.5
My Pick: Pistons by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Winning Opponent. The Pistons are 4-1 in their last five games against teams with a winning record. Going back to early February, Detroit is 2-4 in its last six games against teams with losing records.
Hurting Howard. Howard is expected to be sidelined. Without him, Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry are the only reliable scoring options for Rick Carlisle.
Pit Stop. The Mavericks are technically at home, but tonight’s game is sandwiched between two road trips for the Mavs. In terms of travel schedules, this will feel like a road game for both teams.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Sheed’s Calf. The Pistons will miss the mercurial big man if he is unable to play. Jason Maxiell and Kwame Brown are fine as the third and fourth big men. The problems arise when they each have to move up a slot in the pecking order.
Jason Terry. Terry can light it up off the bench for Dallas. Without Iverson, the Piston bench lacks anyone who can do the same.
Brandon Bass. When Jason Maxiell faces undersized power forwards who can match his energy level, Maxiell comes up short more often than not. Since the start of 2008, in three games each against Bass and Paul Millsap, Maxiell has averaged 5.7 points and 4 rebounds per game while his counterparts have contributed 15.3 points 6.2 rebounds per contest. Bass went off for 18 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block when the Mavericks visited the Palace earlier this year.

Update: RIP Hamilton is out tonight. Arron Afflalo will start in his place. Stuckey and Prince will need to have huge scoring nights for the Pistons to be competitive.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 101, Dallas 103
Notes:

The Pistons lost by only two despite a 15% difference in field goal accuracy. The Pistons kept the game close by limiting turnovers (6) and dominating the glass (17-4 edge in offensive rebounds).
I’m coming around on Will Bynum. He hit a few jump shots during a strong second half and has been great the past few games. It will be tough to find playing time for both Iverson and Bynum during the playoffs, but Bynum is at least forcing Curry to think about ways to get him into games.
Afflalo deserves consistent minutes until further notice.
The Mavericks had a convenient answer to the Pistons’ fourth quarter run: Dirk Nowitzki. He was unstoppable all game.
The Pistons, on the other hand, struggled to find an answer for Brandon Bass on the pick and pop.

Pistons vs. Grizzlies, 3.15.09

2009-03-15T00:44:00.004-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (33-31) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (16-48)
Spread: Pistons -9
My Pick: Pistons by 6

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

The Grizzlies. Memphis has lost three times as many games as they have won. They are a bad NBA team.
The Grizzlies on the Road. The Grizz are 4-27 away from home. No team has fewer road wins, although Sacramento is tied.
The Grizzlies’ Offense. Young teams like Memphis typically struggle on the road and play poor defense. While those generalizations fit the Grizzlies, Memphis is also second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Injuries. Injuries should level the playing field to some extent.
Poor Focus. The Pistons lost to the Knicks at home last week, so nothing is out of the question.
Small Ball. With Rasheed on the shelf, small ball returned with poor results in the Piston’s last game. If Curry tries this avenue again, he can expect similar results.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 84, Memphis 89
Notes:

The Sunday thing is getting ridiculous.
In a battle of two of the biggest draft flops in NBA history facing their former teams, Kwame Brown and Darko Milicic... starred? When each player was drafted, the expectation was that each was the type of player capable of 18-point, 24-rebound performances. Yesterday, the two much-maligned backup centers combined for that stat line in 46 minutes of action. Both players showed the talent that had scouts drooling earlier this decade.
As awesome as RIP’s recent assist binge has been, the production has been mitigated by far too many turnovers. Hamilton has 19 turnovers in the last three games.
Stuckey had one of the worst games of his season. His stat line told the story: two points and four turnovers.

Pistons at Raptors, 3.13.09

2009-03-13T16:11:00.004-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (32-31) at Toronto Raptors (23-42)
Spread: Pistons -1
My Pick: Pistons by 5

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Antonio McDyess. This season, McDyess has the highest rebound rate of his career and has been the third best rebounding power forward in the NBA (Marcin Gortat doesn’t count, he plays center). Dice has been awesome this year.
Point Guard Power. Jose Calderon would need about five years worth of uninterrupted weight training to match Stuckey’s strength. Stuckey should be able to attack the basket at will.
Weaker Bench. Without Iverson and Rasheed, the Pistons bench should again be pitiful. The fact that the Raptor’s bench is just as bad, except without the injury excuse, goes a long way toward explaining the team’s 23-42 record.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Shawn Marion. In the first two meetings between these teams this season, Tayshaun Prince averaged 26 points per game on 72.4% shooting. That won’t happen on Marion’s watch, even though the forward's play is in rapid decline.
Chris Bosh. Aside from the fact that he’s awesome at basketball, is there a more likable, self-aware athlete on the planet? (Evidence: here, and here. Dear Chris, Please sign with the Pistons in 2010.)
No Sheed. The Pistons will miss him, especially on the defensive end. It’s not about the backup. It’s about the backup’s backup.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 99, Toronto 95 (OT)
Notes:

Jason Maxiell made amends for his poor play in his previous Monday. Maxiell was 8-9 shooting and blocked two shots. On a negative note, he had just six rebounds in 38 minutes.
RIP and Dice were all over the stat sheet. The duo combined for 40 points, 18 rebounds, 18 assists, three blocks, eight turnovers, eight fouls, and 91 minutes.
With five minutes left in the third quarter and the Pistons leading 33-31, small ball returned. Toronto immediately went on a 14-7 run which only ended when the Pistons were bailed out by halftime. The Pistons went back to small ball for five minutes in the fourth quarter and were out-scored 8-7. While the decision is less horrific due to Rasheed’s absence, Amir Johnson should have been on the court.
It was nice to see Afflalo play well in 23 minutes. In his last seven games, he has played 77 minutes and is 11-20 including five made threes. He could be a big boost to the Piston bench if he can continue to shoot well.
The Raptors only have six players worthy of playing in an NBA rotation and three of them are Andrea Bargnani, Anthony Parker, and Joey Graham. Could anyone blame Chris Bosh if he bolts? If Detroit rolls its cap space over to 2010, it should roll out the red carpet for the man they passed up in 2004.

Pistons vs. Knicks, 3.11.09

2009-03-11T17:41:00.003-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (32-30) vs New York Knicks (26-37)
Spread: Pistons -6.5
My Pick: Pistons by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

The Knicks Stink. The Knicks have lost 12 of their last 17 games. They are 8-22 on the road. 2010 can’t arrive soon enough for this franchise.
Chris Duhon. He starts at point guard for the Knicks. Duhon has an OK all-around game, but does not do anything well enough to merit a starting spot.
Larry Hughes. Hughes has had to carry the offensive load for the Knicks lately. That would have been fine a few in 2005. Since then, he’s had more surgeries than productive seasons.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

No Sheed. Sheed is out two games with a strained calf. The Pistons will miss his defense and shooting abilities.
The RFAs. Nate Robinson and David Lee are the two best players on the Knicks. Both are also working for new contracts. Detroit has a ton of impending cap flexibility, so they should be motivated to impress tonight.
Weak Bench. The Piston’s already thin bench is losing its best player – Jason Maxiell – to the starting lineup tonight. Hopefully Curry is smart enough to play Amir Johnson. As well as Kwame Brown played against Orlando, there is no Dwight Howard for him to guard tonight

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 111, New York 116 (OT)
Notes:

The Knicks absolutely stole one in the Detroit. A weak bench (coach included) killed the Pistons tonight. Everyone but Antonio McDyess ran out of gas for the fourth quarter and overtime. 51 minutes for Tayshaun Prince.
Jason Maxiell was non-existent. He is a nice backup, but is not starter material.
Mike D’Antoni used a trapping scheme that the Pistons, specifically RIP, never seemed to figure out. The Pistons needed Rasheed to beat that trap.
The Knicks overcame a 25 rebound deficit by committing just three turnovers. RIP nearly tripled that total on his own.
What exactly does Larry Hughes do well? Chris Duhon? Wilson Chandler? Quentin Richardson? The fact that Mike D’Antoni took this job speaks volumes about the power of the dollar.
What RIP does well: make open jumpers. He is averaging over 25 points per game in his last eight.
What Antonio McDyess does well: rebound. He has 40 in the last two games.
One theory on D’Antoni’s otherwise bizarre decision not to start its best perimeter player – Nate Robinson: the Knicks may want to reduce his contract offers this summer by making teams question his ability to start.

Rounding Out the Rotation

2009-03-10T21:42:00.000-04:00

The future of the Piston’s season hinges on two pieces falling into place much better than they have thus far. If the Pistons are going to make noise in the playoffs, they need Allen Iverson playing well and Michael Curry making smart decisions about his rotation. To date, Iverson has had a negative impact on the team – through his play, not his behavior – while Curry has often appeared lost. For Detroit to win a series or two, the team needs its bench to contribute. The only scenario in which that is possible involves a productive Allen Iverson and a logical rotation.

Without Iverson, the Piston’s perimeter backups have been inconsistent, to put it mildly. Arron Afflalo played well in the first half of the season, but has been mired in a horrible slump the last eight weeks. His PER for the season has fallen to 8.31. Despite his strong defense, he does not deserve to play based on that lack of production. Afflalo should get one more opportunity, given that his game seems to compliment Iverson’s nicely in the sense that Afflalo plays strong defense and does not need the ball on offense. However, Afflalo will only warrant consistent minutes if he can knock down open shots.

The man who has replaced Afflalo in the rotation is Walter Herrmann. Herrmann has made several spectacular plays this season. Those plays overshadow the many easy ones he has botched. Herrmann’s value to the team is supposed to lie in his shooting ability. This season, he has converted just 36.4 percent of his field goals attempts. Many of his makes have been threes, but the flip side of that perimeter shooting has been an inability to get to the free throw line. The result is that Herrmann has the worst true shooting percentage among the 12 Pistons who regularly dress.

Defensively, the exception has once again overshadowed the rule with Herrmann. Last spring, he played excellent defense on Dirk Nowitzki during a comeback attempt by the Pistons. Aside from that one game, he has typically been overmatched on the defensive end of the court. Herrmann often plays like his shoes are on fire. He is constantly jumping around and shuffling his feet. With so much movement, he often finds himself out of position and is easily beaten by his man. For Joe Dumars, the search for Tayshaun Prince’s backup should continue. Thus far, Ronald Dupree, Carlos Delfino, Maurice Evans, Jarvis Hayes, and now Herrmann have failed to fill the void left by trading Corliss Williamson.

The lone bright spot, as far as perimeter backups are concerned, has been Will Bynum. On a per-minute basis, Bynum leads the Pistons in assists and steals and is second to Allen Iverson in free throw attempts. However, with the good comes the bad for Bynum. He leads the Pistons in turnovers per minute, has fallen behind Allen Iverson into last on the Pistons in effective field goal percentage, and has a poor outside shot.

Bynum is effective at driving into the paint and drawing multiple defenders. While that skill has come in handy lately, that happens to be identical to Allen Iverson’s strength on the court. Both Bynum and Iverson are most effective with the ball in their hands. When one also considers that neither player is six-feet tall, it is hard to imagine them playing together. Rodney Stuckey and RIP Hamilton have clearly established themselves as the Pistons best backcourt, so they should be on the floor together as much as possible. Given that, it is hard to imagine Michael Curry finding minutes for both Bynum and Iverson. Curry hinted that he may want to try and play Bynum and Iverson together. Hopefully he reconsiders.

As much as Iverson can help the bench, he has the potential to do just as much damage to the starting unit. The Pistons need their best five players starting and finishing each half. If that means Iverson only plays 15 minutes per game, so be it. The Piston offense is most effective when the starters play together. Playing Iverson alongside three or four other starters would be counter-productive. The Pistons could rest three or more starters at once while Iverson takes over the offense. As soon as all five starters have had enough of a breather to return for the remainder of the half, Curry needs to send Iverson to the bench.

Without Iverson, the Piston bench has been ineffective. With him, the bench has the potential to be explosive. Curry needs to strike a balance between letting Iverson carry the bench unit without letting him take away from the starters’ effectiveness. The Piston’s season depends on it.

Pistons vs. Magic, 3.09.09

2009-03-09T17:21:00.003-04:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (31-30) vs Orlando Magic (46-16)
Spread: Magic -1
My Pick: Pistons by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

The Magic('s) Number. The puns have not started to bore me quite yet. The Pistons have eliminated the Magic from each of Orlando’s last three playoff appearances (2003, 2007, 2008). Detroit has also won 18 of the last 23 regular season games between the two.
Better Backcourt. Rodney Stuckey and RIP Hamilton should have the upper hand against their counterparts on the Magic – Rafer Alston and Courtney Lee. Hamilton should be especially dominant; he has scored at least 31 points in each of his last three games against Orlando, including two playoff wins.
Letdown Game. After Orlando’s big win over the Celtics yesterday, there may be a bit of a letdown in terms of intensity tonight.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Durable Dwight. In past season’s Dwight Howard’s production has tailed off in the second half of the season. Not this year. Howard’s monthly splits show no signs of decline.
Marcin Gortat. If the Pistons try to neutralize Gortat with Kwame Brown, they will lose that matchup. Instead, they should counter Gortat with a more athletic player.
The Deep Ball. Orlando’s offense relies on threes, a shot which the Pistons have not defended well this season. Detroit held Orlando to 4-19 from long range in their last meeting. A repeat of that defensive effort will be necessary tonight.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 98, Orlando 94
Notes:

The biggest lead for either team all game was six points. The Magic never led by more than four.
Antonio McDyess was huge. His play compensated for a Rasheed Wallace injury. Wallace did not play after the first quarter.
Kwame Brown played great. He was awesome defensively and made five of six shots. With that said, his presence offensively had its drawbacks when Orlando was able to clog the paint. Fortunately for the Pistons, RIP Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince hit tough jumpers.
The Pistons overcame 29 Orlando free throws by dominating the glass and the turnover battle. Detroit had 15 offensive rebounds to Orlando's six and seven turnovers compared to Orlando's 15.

Pistons at Hawks 3.07.09

2009-03-07T18:46:00.005-05:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (31-29) at Atlanta Hawks (34-28)
Spread: Hawks -2.5
My Pick: Pistons by 5

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Perimeter Defense. The first time these teams met this season, Mike Bibby dropped 27 points on Allen Iverson. In their second matchup, Flip Murray took a turn torching AI and dropped 23. Without Iverson, the Pistons should defend the Hawk guards much more successfully.
Mad Max. Maxiell was awesome last night. The Hawks thin bench should have no answer for Maxiell. In the first meeting between these two teams, Maxiell had an inexplicable DNP. That will not be the case tonight.
Saturday. While the Pistons have struggled on Sundays, they have been much better the other half of the weekend. The Pistons are 4-2 in Saturday games. They should enjoy this opportunity because they play on Sunday each of the next four weekends.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Joe Johnson. Johnson is a great, if somewhat overrated, player. The Pistons have no one who can match up with the 6’8 guard.
Hawks at Home. Atlanta is 20-7 at home compared to just 14-21 away from Phillips Arena.
Young Athletes. The Hawks are far more athletic than the Pistons, especially along the frontline. Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Al Horford will all have quickness advantages at their respective positions.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 83, Atlanta 87
Notes:

Kwame Brown killed the Piston's momentum in the first half. Once again, why is he playing ahead of Amir Johnson? Brown offers nothing offensively and is a poor rebounder for his position. In order to deserve minutes as a defensive specialist, a player needs to either be competent offensively (Shane Battier, Bruce Bowen) or strong on the glass (Ben Wallace, Dikembe Mutumbo). Brown is neither.
The Hawks put the clamps on defensively in the second half.
Al Horford merits the clichéd description of "player every team would love to have."
The Piston guards (Stuckey, Hamilton, Bynum, Afflalo) all played well. The frontcourt players played fine, but missed far too many makeable shots and finished 13-41 from the field.

Pistons vs. Warriors, 3.06.09

2009-03-06T17:11:00.002-05:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (30-29) vs. Golden State Warriors (21-40)
Spread: Pistons -9
My Pick: Pistons by 16

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Which Warriors? Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Ronny Turiaf, and Brandan Wright are all out tonight. Kelenna Azubuike is questionable. The other Warriors periodically sit out games for no reason other than Don Nelson’s coaching creativity, for lack of a better term. The Warriors were mediocre to begin with. Without half of their rotation, tonight’s game could get out of hand. (Update: Turiaf played, Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette did not.)
Little Big Men. Without Biedrins, Turiaf, and Wright, the Warriors will play one of weakest frontcourts the NBA has seen all season. There are D-League teams with comparable, if not better, big men than Golden State will use tonight.
Chuckers. The healthy Warriors include Stephen Jackson and Jamal Crawford, two volume scorers shooting below 42% for the season. The Pistons offense should be far more efficient against the no-defense Warriors.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

No Respect. The only way tonight’s game will be close is if the Pistons fail to respect their opponents as legitimate NBA players. The Pistons have a huge edge in talent, but NBA wins are earned, not given away.
Corey Maggette. Maggette is the type of bruising wing who gives Tayshaun Prince trouble. If he goes off, he could keep the game competitive.
They Won’t. The Pistons will not have an easier game on the schedule all season. If they lose tonight, Bill Davidson should pull a Mark Cuban and threaten to trade the entire roster.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 108, Golden State 91
Notes:

PG Monta Ellis, SG Kelenna Azubuike, SF Stephen Jackson, PF Brandan Wright, C Andris Biedrins, and sub Corey Maggette. The top-six players in the Warrior rotation? Not last night, when those were the six Warriors who took the night off.
The 63-40 first half score was indicative of the difference between perfect execution and none.
Stuckey has played much better defense since the recent lineup switch. He did OK defending shooting guards, but has been far better against point guards.
What did Kwame Brown do to earn Amir Johnson's minutes? What could Michael Curry have possibly seen from Kwame Brown that impressed him?

Fastbreak Buckets 3.06.09

2009-03-06T15:31:00.004-05:00

-If the Pistons want to separate themselves from the pack at the bottom of the East standings, they need to win five of their next six games – a feat which seems very possibly given their upcoming schedule. Detroit’s upcoming schedule features home games against Golden State, Orlando, New York, and Memphis along with road games against Atlanta and Toronto. The Pistons should dominate Golden State, New York, and Memphis, while Toronto should not pose much of a threat. If the Pistons maintain last week’s momentum, they should also fare well against Orlando and Atlanta. If the Pistons hope to make a push for a top-five seed in the playoffs – hence avoiding the East’s big-three in round one – there is no time like the present to make a move up the standings.

-Piston fans need to calm down about Will Bynum. The positives about Bynum are that he is fun to watch and he has an uncanny ability to get to the basket. The negatives are everything else. Bynum has no confidence in his jump shot and for good reason – he has made 29% of non-layup two-pointers and is 1/6 on threes this season. Despite his ability to get to the basket, he is shooting only 41%. A player Bynum’s size cannot survive in the NBA without a reliable jumper. Whenever he is on the court, opposing defenses simply clog the paint and force Bynum’s teammates to shoot over people. Bynum has shown enough this season to stick in the NBA as a third point guard, but until he learns to shoot well enough to keep defenses honest, he should not be playing significant minutes.

-Speaking of players who need to fix their shot, Arron Afflalo has disappeared from the Piston’s rotation. Afflalo is a nice defender with the potential to mimic the career paths of players like Raja Bell, Bruce Bowen, and Mickael Pietrus. While none of those players are great offensively, all hit open shots and force defenses to play them honestly. Therein lies the problem for Afflalo; his shot has abandoned him lately. Since the start of February, Afflalo is 2-11 on non-layup two pointers and 1-5 on threes. January was not much better – he shot below 40% for the month.

As a result of his poor shooting, Afflalo has played 14 minutes total in the team’s last seven games. During the first 30 games of the season, Afflalo shot better than 46% with more than a quarter of his makes coming on threes. He needs to re-establish that stroke if he hopes to return to the rotation. The good news for Afflalo’s future is that similar players have tended to be late bloomers. Raja Bell did not post a respectable PER until age 27, but is currently in the midst of his sixth consecutive productive season. Likewise, Bruce Bowen did not even find his footing in the NBA until he was 26. If Afflalo can continue to improve his defense and work on his shot, he should be valuable role player down the road. In the meantime, he’s going to be hard-pressed to earn minutes if he continues to be an offensive zero.

-One often overlooked aspect of the trade for Allen Iverson was the cap space created by including Antonio McDyess in the deal. While Pistons fans are very aware that the team cleared Billups’ twelve-million-a-year contract off the books, it should be noted that the Pistons no longer are obligated to pay McDyess 7.5 million next season. McDyess is an excellent role player who has done great things in Detroit, but in this economy, that money could go a long way on the free agent market this summer. Detroit should have roughly 18 million in cap space this summer.

Pistons vs. Nuggets, 3.03.09

2009-03-03T17:40:00.005-05:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (29-29) vs. Denver Nuggets (39-21)
Spread: Pistons -3
My Pick: Pistons by 8

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

No Allen Iverson. Iverson is in Washington D.C. The game is being played in Michigan. That means lots of minutes for Rodney Stuckey and RIP Hamilton, the two best guards on the Piston roster.
No Carmelo Anthony. Melo has been suspended by his team for tonight’s game. Without him, the Nugget offense lacks firepower.
Shooting Guard Mismatch. In the past three games, RIP Hamilton has scored 80 points. His counterpart tonight, Dahntay Jones, has accumulated the same point total in his last 16 games combined.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Chauncey Billups. The best player in tonight’s game no longer wears Piston blue.
Welcome Home. The first game back from a long road trip is often a major challenge for the home team.
Three Pointers. The Pistons have defended the three ball poorly this season. If that trend continues, Billups, J.R. Smith, and Linas Kleiza could light up the Palace.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 100, Denver 95
Notes:

All five Piston starters played well.
Chauncey showed Detroit what it’s missing.
Michael Curry deserves credit for switching Hamilton onto Billups, a move that turned around the game in the second half. The timeout he took early in the second half also seemed to have a profound effect on his players. Once again, Curry seems like a much better coach without Iverson.
Curry was far from flawless. There was no reason to play Kwame Brown seven minutes.
The Nuggets went on their first half run when Will Bynum and Walter Herrmann played. Bynum and Herrmann are fan favorites, but they should not be in the rotation of a good team. Bynum can't shoot; Denver simply ignored him whenever he did not have the ball. While Herrmann can shoot, he struggles with everything else.
The Piston’s lackluster bench play showed why they could benefit from Iverson, but only if he is willing to accept limited minutes. 20-25 minutes a game would be ideal.
Only three Nuggets scored more than six points.

Fastbreak Buckets 3.02.2009

2009-03-02T19:22:00.002-05:00

This edition of Fastbreak Buckets is an all-Allen Iverson version.

-During yesterday’s win in Boston, the Pistons made a fundamental change in their defense – they switched on most picks. While Stuckey, Hamilton, and Prince are far from interchangeable defensively, there was little hesitation for any of the three to switch defensive assignments after a screen. They were able to do this because all three players have the size to guard point guards and wings, while also possessing the quickness to stay in front of any of the Celtics.

When Allen Iverson is on the court, the Pistons lose this ability. Iverson is typically too small to guard any player but opposing point guards. When a screen is set on Iverson, the screener’s defender has to step out on the opposing guard and then retreat to his own man. This potentially problematic task is necessary to ensure that Iverson does not have to switch onto a bigger player. That responsibility has placed a difficult burden on many of the Pistons and is a primary reason their defense has suffered this season. Iverson’s lack of size is out his control, but that is the biggest reason he is such a liability on defense.

-As much as Iverson has hurt the Pistons defensively, he has done the most damage on offense. Game recaps from the two weekend games were filled with players and coaches talking about how much better the Pistons move the ball without Iverson. Iverson tends to attack defenses off the dribble and often attempts contested mid-range jumpers. The constant dribbling takes the Pistons out of their offense and hinders the ability of players like Rodney Stuckey and Tayshaun Prince to be effective. The contested jumpers Iverson so frequently takes are the least efficient shot in basketball. Iverson does not make nearly of them to justify the regularity with which he takes such shots. If Iverson can accept a role in which he plays limited minutes as a change-of-pace offensive force playing alongside backups who struggle to score, he can help the Pistons. Otherwise, the Pistons should cut their losses and give him the Marbury treatment.

-In a related note, while the focus has been on the starting lineup lately, there is another question that needs to be answered. Which Pistons will finish close games? For the same reasons that Iverson should not start games, he should not finish them. Hopefully, Curry was paying attention this weekend and noticed that the Pistons played two of their best fourth quarters all season without Iverson.

Pistons at Celtics, 3.01.09

2009-03-01T10:44:00.004-05:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (28-29) at Boston Celtics(47-13)
Spread: Celtics -9
My Pick: Celtics by 5

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Starting Lineup. For the second consecutive game, the Pistons are using a lineup that makes sense.
Inside Presence. The Celtics will be playing without Kevin Garnett. Without him, reserve Leon Powe is their only big who can score.
Stuckey. The Eastern Washington product appeared to find his rhythm, his jump shot, and his confidence in the first game he did not have to defer to have Iverson. Rajon Rondo is an excellent defender, so this should be a good test of whether Stuckey’s last game was a sign that he has emerged from his slump, or merely a one-game blip on the radar.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Boston's Backcourt. For the past several seasons, the Pistons have entered most matchups with a major edge in talent in the backcourt. Against Rondo and Ray Allen, that will not be the case this afternoon.
Sunday Blues. The Pistons are 1-10 on Sundays this season. Ouch.
Paul Pierce. Pierce is exactly the type of player who gives Tayshaun Prince trouble at both ends of the court. Prince dominates smaller players because of his ability to post them up and contest their shots on the other end. Against a bruising forward like Pierce, Prince will likely be outmuscled for position on both ends of the floor.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 105, Boston 95
Notes:

The Pistons have beaten all six division leaders. No other team can make that claim.
Michael Curry sure looks like a much better coach without Iverson. This does not excuse the fact that he has handled Iverson terribly – both in terms of minutes and play-calling – but the Pistons should give Curry a chance without Iverson next season. If Curry struggles next season, then Dumars needs to find a replacement.
Walter Herrmann provided a spark in the first half with 11 points on 4-4 shooting.
The Pistons played suffocating defense down the stretch. During the final six and a half minutes, they limited Boston to eight points on 2-7 shooting.
RIP Hamilton was awesome. 25 points on 12 shots to go with nine assists for the man who never should have been forced to sit in favor of Allen Iverson.
105 points in a low possession game for the Pistons. The ball was moving, the jump shots were falling, and the whistle was blowing (40 free throw attempts) for Detroit.

One Man's Rotation

2009-02-28T17:25:00.003-05:00

Now that Allen Iverson has been relegated to a backup role, the Pistons need to work out their rotation. Obviously, there are countless factors that influence the rotation on a given night –matchups, health, foul trouble, slumps, and score to name a five – but this is a rough breakdown of how I would dole out minutes on a given night, assuming a close game with everyone healthy. Will Bynum should be out of the rotation. He is too small to play with Iverson and whenever Iverson is not on the court, Stuckey should be playing point guard. Kwame Brown can see spot minutes during games when the Pistons face a dominant low post scorer.

Pistons at Magic, 2.27.09

2009-02-27T18:32:00.003-05:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (27-29) at Orlando Magic (42-15)
Spread: Magic -9.5
My Pick: Magic by 4

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

Starting Lineup. Allen Iverson will not start (or play). Despite the man’s Hall of Fame credentials, the Pistons should be much better off without him in the starting lineup.
Happier Hamilton. RIP should be eager to back up his words and prove that he belongs in the starting lineup.
Big Bodies. The Pistons have at least three players – and possibly four – that are capable of slowing down Dwight Howard. Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess both have the strength and veteran savvy to frustrate Howard. Jason Maxiell did an excellent job using leverage and positioning to contain Howard during last year’s playoffs. Lastly, Kwame Brown was superb against Shaq; he may be able to replicate his success against Orlando’s Superman. While no team can stop Howard, the Pistons are better-suited than most to limit his production.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Rashard Lewis. Lewis could kill the Pistons from behind the arc if Wallace and McDyess are slow to close out on him.
Stoppable Force. The Pistons are 22nd in offensive efficiency. The Magic are third in defensive efficiency. Scoring could be a serious challenge for the Pistons tonight.
Friday. The Pistons have lost three consecutive Friday games, none of which occurred during the current eight-game losing streak.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 93, Orlando 85
Notes:

The last nine games should end any and all questions about whether Allen Iverson should be starting. Since Iverson’s injury, the Pistons outscored New Orleans by six and Orlando by eight.
Hamilton reverted to 2003 form, running around picks, drilling mid-range jumpers, and drawing fouls. RIP attempted 10 free throws in a game for the first time since November 13. Too often this year, RIP has relied on isolation or taken difficult three pointers. It was nice to see the old RIP back.
Jon Barry on Rodney Stuckey: “I think it’s been easier for Stuckey to not have Allen Iverson here because [Iverson] demands the ball so much.” I concur. Stuckey scored 22.
Kwame Brown appears to have improved his free throw shooting. He was shooting below 40 percent in mid-January, but he has made four in a row. His form looks much better than it did earlier in the season.
Will Bynum struggled badly. Every other Piston – with the possible exception of Rasheed Wallace, who missed a number of makeable shots – played well.

Iverson Benched!

2009-02-27T13:35:00.002-05:00

Breaking News! The Detroit News is reporting that Allen Iverson has been benched in favor of RIP Hamilton. This is great news and should enhance the Pistons' chances of qualifying for the playoffs. As Chris McCosky stated earlier in the day, if Iverson is unahppy with the move, the Pistons would probably be better off to buy out his contract than to start him over the more efficient Hamilton. Michael Curry has done a very poor job overall this season, but no one can blame him for being too inflexible with his rotations – in fact, he probably has made too many changes. With that said, he got this move right. Only time will tell if the move will actually pay off, but it cannot possibly lead to worse results than what the team has produced of late.

Pistons at Hornets, 2.25.09

2009-02-25T19:33:00.007-05:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (27-28) at New Orleans Hornets (33-22)
Spread: Hornets -8.5
My Pick: Hornets by 11

Three reasons the Pistons will win:

RIP Hamilton. No one on the Hornets can match up with RIP. Defensive specialist James Posey is too big and too slow to chase Hamilton around screens all night.
Law of Averages. The Pistons have to win eventually...right?
Depth. The Hornets have virtually no depth at any position but small forward. Assuming that Jason Maxiell’s number comes up in rotation roulette, he could have a big game.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:

Chris Paul. Depending upon what one thinks of Kobe Bryant, an argument can be made that the Pistons are on game four of a five game stretch in which they play the NBA’s five best players (Duncan, LeBron, Wade, Paul, Howard). The Pistons struggle to defend quicker guards like Ramon Sessions and Devin Harris. Against Paul, the possibilities are downright scary.
David West. At this stage in their careers, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess lack the quickness to stay with West. Also, he could burn the Pistons with jumpers if the Pistons have to help off of him to contain Paul.
Back to Back. The Pistons are 0-5 in the second half of a back to back in 2009.

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 87, New Orleans 90
Notes:

As far as moral victories go, this was as good as it gets. The Pistons played hard and actually outscored New Orleans by six after Iverson left with an injury.
Arron Afflalo and Amir Johnson are out of the rotation. Curry typically re-shuffles the deck two or three times per month, so they should return to the court before long.
Chris Paul has mastered an old Chauncey Billups trick. When Paul has a defender chasing him, he often will stop on a dime. The result is that the pursuing defender tends to run into Paul and commit a foul. Rodney Stuckey was victim of the tactic tonight.
Rasheed blew a fuse after a no-call on a push from behind as he tried to grab a rebound. He disagreed with a second call a few plays later and made sure the refs knew his feelings. Sheed earned himself at least a few days of vacation with the outburst.
Another no-call on an over-the-back may have been the difference in the game. With just over 30 seconds remaining, David West pushed his way toward a critical offensive rebound. The refs swallowed their whistles.
The Hornets’ bench is atrocious.

The Consensus: Bench Iverson

2009-02-25T12:41:00.002-05:00

The Allen Iverson bashing is picking up momentum. Putting Iverson on the bench would not solve all of this team’s problems, but it would definitely solve quite a few. In an effort to support the arguments made in The Detroit News, The Detroit Free Press, and on Fanhouse, here is a recap of the reasons the Pistons should reduce Iverson to a reserve role.

Iverson is regarded as a terrible defender; however he also appears to be incapable of being part of an efficient offense.
Part of the reason Iverson brings down an offense is his horrendous shot selection.
Iverson allegedly kills team spirits.
As crazy as this sounds, Iverson is no longer good enough to start for an above average NBA team. Not a single team with an above .500 record would benefit from starting Iverson over one of its current starters.
Iverson dominates the ball while in the game. This has detrimental effects when he plays with the starters, but would be OK alongside the Piston reserves, many of whom struggle to create open looks.
RIP Hamilton is the shooting guard of the future. It makes sense to allow him to play alongside Stuckey and Prince – the other core players here for the long haul – as often as possible. Since Stuckey and Prince both start, the logical move is to start Hamilton.
Stuckey looks lost playing with Iverson. His development should be the top priority for the Pistons the remainder of this season. Allowing him to play in a more traditional offense –one that does not revolve around Iverson – would be ideal.

The Pistons won roughly 70 percent of their games between the start of the 2001-2002 season and the trade for Iverson. Since Iverson first suited-up in Piston blue, the team has won 45 percent of its games. Obviously there are a ton of other factors at work and the problems extend far beyond Iverson, but he clearly has not been of much help. Whatever the Pistons are doing now is not working. Limiting Iverson’s role is an option Michael Curry must explore. If this season can be salvaged, he has no other choice.

Pistons at Heat, 2.24.09

2009-02-24T18:43:00.004-05:00

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (27-27) at Miami Heat (29-26)
Spread: Heat -4
My Pick: Pistons by 5

Three reasons the Pistons will win:
1. Pride. The Pistons have been hammered by the press lately. Tonight may be the night they show the season is not a lost cause.
2. Stuckey. The second year guard gets up to play one of his idols – Dwyane Wade.
3. Miami’s Frontcourt. Jermaine O’Neal is overrated, Michael Beasley is unpolished, and Udonis Haslem and Jamario Moon are nothing more than competent role players. Wade is badly in need of an improved supporting cast.

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:
1. Dwyane Wade. Wade is BY FAR the best player in tonight’s game. Wade might be able to match the 50 points he scored in his last game if the Pistons continue to play pitiful perimeter defense.
2. Rotation Roulette. Walter Herrmann and Amir Johnson will probably be back in the rotation tonight. The Pistons complain about playing like a bunch of strangers who have been thrown together. Considering that there is no consistency with who plays on a given night, the complaint is understandable.
3. Miami’s Record. Here is the complete list of teams with a winning record who Detroit has beaten twice this season: ____. Detroit has already beaten Miami and the Heat have a winning record. Can the Pistons buck the trend?

Update:
Final Score: Detroit 91, Miami 103
Notes:
-As expected, Rotation Roulette was in full force for the Pistons:

Amir Johnson played two first half minutes, picked up two fouls, and was sent to the bench for the rest of the night.
In a baffling move, Walter Herrmann was apparently handed Arron Afflalo’s role as backup shooting guard. Herrmann can be useful in place of Tayshaun Prince, not alongside him.
Kwame Brown saw significant action for the first time in a while.

-Dwyane Wade went wherever he wanted, whenever he wanted.
-Yakhouba Diawara, Daequan Cook, and Jamario Moon made 8-14 three pointers. That marksmanship should surprise only those who are unaware of how poorly the Pistons close out on shooters.
-The lone bright spots for Detroit were Antonio McDyess, who was deadly from mid-range, and Jason Maxiell, who has picked up his intensity on the defensive glass.

Crawl to the Playoffs

2009-02-24T18:28:00.002-05:00

In the Eastern Conference, there are currently ten teams vying for four playoff spots. Only eight and a half games separate fifth-place Miami from 14th-place Toronto. The disappointing Pistons find themselves in the middle of the fight, which is odd considering how little fight the team has shown in recent games. Here is a breakdown of the ten teams and my assessment of their playoff chances.

Miami Heat (29-26): Despite a negative point margin on the season, the Heat have the fifth-best record in the East. While Jermaine O’Neal is no longer capable of providing the boost many are expecting in Miami, the Heat should have little trouble securing a playoff berth. Between their cushion on the field and lack of threatening challenger, the Heat stand a strong chance to be the worst fifth seed in the history of the current playoff format.
Postseason Chances: 90%

Detroit Pistons (27-27): The Pistons are slumping and the new additions are deservedly taking the blame for failing to provide leadership. The upcoming schedule won’t do the Pistons any favors, but the team should be able to eke out a playoff berth. In an interesting twist, all eight of the games the Pistons will play in April will be against teams on this list.
Postseason Chances: 60%

Philadelphia 76ers (27-28): After initially running circles around opponents without Elton Brand, the Sixers have come back to Earth with four straight losses. They play a road heavy schedule the rest of the way, but should manage to earn the right to be swept by an Eastern Conference powerhouse.
Postseason Chances: 70%

Milwaukee Bucks (28-31): The Bucks have been hammered by injuries, but their talented young players have allowed them to remain competitive. Aside from the Bobcats, the Bucks give the most consistent effort of any team on this list. The Bucks will benefit from a soft schedule the final five weeks of the season.
Postseason Chances: 50%

Chicago Bulls (25-31): The Bulls upgraded their roster at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, Vinny Del Negro is still running the show. The Bulls are another team with a friendly schedule from here out.
Postseason Chances: 50%

New Jersey Nets (25-32): The Nets have the third worst point differential in the conference. They also have the worst forwards in the league. Devin Harris will have to be spectacular for the Nets to have a chance.
Postseason Chances: 15%

New York Knicks (24-32): Mike D’Antoni cemented his reputation as a great coach just by keeping this team in the playoff discussion. Any time Larry Hughes is expected to provide a boost, there are serious roster problems at hand. Chris Duhon, Hughes, Quentin Richardson, Wilson Chandler, and Jared Jefferies are all capable of being the eighth best player on a good team. The problem in New York is that instead of having seven superior players, they have three (Lee, Robinson, and Harrington).
Postseason Chances: 20%

Indiana Pacers (24-35): I thought this was a playoff team before the season started. It might have been if the injury bug not stung two thirds of the rotation. When healthy, this team might be the fifth best team in the East.
Postseason Chances: 15%

Charlotte Bobcats (22-34): Larry Brown has done a terrific job with this cast of overpaid role players. The lack of a go-to scorer will keep them out of the playoffs despite stout defense.
Postseason Chances: 20%

Toronto Raptors(22-36): Shawn Marion will provide a big boost in Toronto, but it will be too little too late. This team dug itself a huge hole that it will be unable to dig itself out of.
Postseason Chances: 10%

In the end, just 37 or 38 wins will be enough to secure a playoff berth. Unless Detroit or Philly gets hot, it’s likely that three teams will make the Eastern Conference playoffs with a record below .500.

Pistons at Cavaliers, 2.22.09

2009-02-22T18:29:00.004-05:00

I’m going to experiment with a new feature to CTBAAF: Game Threads. Before each Piston game, I will post three reasons to expect a Piston victory and three reasons to expect a loss. After each game, I will update the post with notes regarding the outcome. Just like Michael Curry’s rotations, this feature is subject to change often and for no apparent reason. Feedback is encouraged.

Matchup: Detroit Pistons (27-26) at Cleveland Cavaliers (42-11)
Spread: Cavs -10
My Pick: Cavs by 7

Three reasons the Pistons will win:
1. Rasheed. He led the Pistons to a victory over Cleveland earlier this season. He might be able to do it again.
2. RIP. The Cavs have no one to stop him.
3. Expectations. Lately, when I expect a Piston victory, the team has lost. Tonight I’m expecting a loss…

Three reasons the Pistons will lose:
1. LeBron James. King James is freakishly good at playing basketball. His PER is over 32. Not a single Piston is above 16.5. LeBron’s weakness is supposed to be his jump shot. In related news, he made his first eight non-full-court-prayer three point attempts in his last game.
2. The Q. The Cavs are 24-1 at Quicken Loans Arena this season.
3. The Pistons. The Pistons have been losing winnable games lately. Tonight’s assignment is even more daunting.

Update
Final Score: Detroit 78, Cleveland 99
Notes:
-At this point, the Cavaliers are a superior offensive, defensive, and rebounding team to the Pistons. Also, they are better-coached and play harder. Other than that, the teams are pretty evenly-matched.
-Once again, no Amir Johnson (until garbage time). So many Pistons barely look like they are trying out there. Good things happen with Johnson on the court simply because he puts forth more effort than most of his teammates.
-The Pistons offense has been pitiful most of the season. Lately, the defense has followed suit.

The Wheels....

2009-02-19T22:44:00.002-05:00

Have Fallen Off

According to Oscar Wilde, "Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes." In that sense, Michael Curry is gaining quite a bit of experience this season.

Slumping Economy Could Benefit Pistons

2009-02-19T16:39:00.000-05:00

As the world economy continues to flounder, possibilities keep opening up for the Pistons. I am working on a multi-part series on the Pistons options going forward, but in the meantime I want to bring up one possibility. Many teams are hell-bent on cutting payroll and saving money. The Pistons, on the other hand, will have major financial flexibility beginning this summer. If Joe Dumars determines that the players he wants will not be available until 2010, he could own the summer by sending out financial lifelines in exchange for assets.

If a team is trying to cut its 2010 payroll, that team could offer the Pistons an asset along with an expiring contract to take off their hands. For example, the New Orleans Hornets are trying to cut costs. Antonio Daniels is set to earn 6.6 million dollars in the final year of his contract next season. Would New Orleans offer the Pistons Julian Wright if Detroit is willing to take Daniels off the Hornets’ cap for next season? The Hornets could save roughly 12 to 15 million with such a deal between shedding salary, avoiding the luxury tax, and receiving their share of the tax that other teams pay. The Pistons would simply have to pay Daniels contract for a season and would be handed a talented young forward for their troubles.

Would Washington consider a similar deal with JaVale McGee along with either Brendan Haywood or Mike James? Would New Jersey offer a draft pick if the Pistons take Stromile Swift off their payroll? There are tons of possibilities out there that would allow the Pistons to acquire an asset without seriously harming their cap space for the summer of 2010. Dumars could try to add premier free agents like Carlos Boozer or David Lee this summer, but he should also consider collecting smaller assets this summer and making a major move in 2010.

Curry Can't Create Consistency

2009-02-17T13:13:00.003-05:00

In coaching, there is a fine line between successfully making adjustments and maintaining consistency. If a coach is too rigid, that coach will fail to make the changes a team needs. When a coach is inflexible with rotations, there is less incentive for players to work to either maintain or expand their roles.

On the other hand, a coach has to maintain some level of stability. There is a middle ground between keeping pressure on a player to earn his minutes and forcing a player to look over his shoulder at every turn. A player needs the freedom to play aggressively without the fear that a few missteps will lead to a reduction in minutes.

All season long, players have been talking about the “transitions” and “adjustments” that accompany roster and coaching changes. Thanks to Michael Curry’s constant tinkering, players have had the added duty of adjusting to different minutes and rotation patterns on almost a game-by-game basis. A player has no chance to find a rhythm if his minutes are yo-yoing and he is forced to play alongside a different group of teammates almost every game.

Michael Curry has come nowhere to achieving balance between flexibility and stability this season. The first lineup change – Iverson replacing Billups – was out of Curry’s control. Since then, Curry had changed the starting lineup four times. After the trade, he first started Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, Wallace, and Johnson. He then inserted Kwame Brown in place of Johnson in order to add muscle to the team’s interior. When Brown failed to produce, he was replaced by Rodney Stuckey in hopes of starting the team’s five best players. Small ball was a disaster, so Curry re-inserted Amir Johnson, this time in place of RIP Hamilton. Today, Curry will be implementing his latest change: starting Antonio McDyess in place of Johnson.

So much for preserving credibility. Less than a month ago, Curry had this to say about the team’s starting lineup:

"This is it for the rest of the season," Curry said.
--The Grand Rapids Press

The players sound resigned to the constant tinkering.

"At this point, we've had so many different lineup changes, it really doesn't matter," Tayshaun Prince said. "We just have to start playing together and try to get some wins. Dyess will help us defensively and rebounding and he will make some shots. But the key to it all now is, who's going to be that big coming off the bench for us? There's good ways and bad ways to look at it.”
-- The Detroit News

The move also flies in the face of everything Curry has said about developing the young players and trying to stagger the minutes of Wallace and McDyess. Curry likes to have one his veteran big men on the court at all times because they are the only two Piston big men with reliable outside shots. When any combination of Johnson, Jason Maxiell, and Kwame Brown are on the floor together, opposing big men can sag into the paint and clog the middle. With Wallace and McDyess starting and finishing games together, Curry will struggle to find minutes for both Johnson and Maxiell – the two Piston big men who are actually a part of this team’s future. Also, while Johnson has not played as well as many had hoped, he is second on the team in net +/-. This implies that even though Johnson is not filling up the stat sheet, the team performs much better when he is on the court.

The man being promoted, Antonio McDyess, is currently saying all the right things, but past comments indicate he is not a fan of the switch.

"I can't see that happening," McDyess said Friday after practice. "Where I'm at mentally, I don't know if starting would be good for me. I think I work better coming off the bench.”
-- Detroit Free Press

This is another example of what Chris McCosky described as overcoaching. The players have already expressed plenty of frustration with Curry. Maybe he will learn from his mistakes and improve as a coach. Unless that happens, Curry’s constant experimenting and the associated poor results can lead to only one conclusion: he is failing as a head coach.

Dice to Start

2009-02-16T21:48:00.003-05:00

Breaking News. Antonio McDyess will replace Amir Johnson in the starting lineup. A longer post will follow, but quite simply, I'm not a fan of the move. Here is Michael Curry's explanation:

“As I talked about going into the break, I'm going to start him instead of Amir,” Curry said of McDyess. “Hopefully Amir will play better with some second line guys. Hopefully we can be more solid defensively, especially when we have the help with 'Dyess in there and also to stay consistent."
-- Detroit Free Press

Phenomenal Freshmen

2009-02-14T21:23:00.005-05:00

The current rookie class is loaded. It is shaping up to be the deepest rookie class in recent memory. The rookies almost defeated the sophomore for the first time in the history of the Rookie Challenge last night. Here’s a breakdown of the impact players in the current rookie class.
(The players and groups are listed in order of how much value I project each player to have in 2011)

Potential Stars

Derrick Rose, PG, Chicago Bulls, (16.12 PER, 1st pick) – The top pick in the draft is leading the Bulls in minutes. He is the present and the future for the once proud franchise. He has the talent to join the likes of Deron Williams, Devin Harris, and Tony Parker as the best young point guards not named Chris Paul.

Greg Oden, C, Portland Trail Blazers, (17.87, 1st in 2007) – The top pick in the 2007 draft is considered a rookie this season because he missed last season with an injury. Oden is already a rebounding monster. If he can develop a few post moves, he has all-star talent.

O.J. Mayo, SG, Memphis Grizzlies, (15.54, 3rd) – Mayo is an incredibly gifted shooter. He already leads the Grizzlies in scoring and should continue to do so for years to come. There is talk of him moving to point guard, but he is probably better-suited to be an off guard. He has the total package at that position.

Building Blocks

Kevin Love, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves, (17.70, 5th) – Love has also been an outstanding rebounder during his rookie season. He is incredibly skilled, but lacks the athleticism to defend elite forwards. Despite his shortcomings, Love’s combination of rebounding ability, strength, and all-around offensive game will allow him to be a valuable NBA player for years to come.

Eric Gordon, SG, Los Angeles Clippers, (14.44, 7th) – Gordon is the only rookie in the conversation with Mayo as far as elite shooters go. The former Hoosier has a picture-perfect stroke. He can also put the ball on the floor and get to the basket. Gordon has been asked to carry a bit too much of the load on a disastrous Clipper team, but he has acquitted himself nicely.

Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder, (16.11, 4th) – Westbrook is uber-athletic. He needs work on his jump shot, but he has the physical skills to be an elite guard in this league. He joins Kevin Durant and Jeff Green to form possibly the best trio of 22 and under players this league has ever seen.

Brook Lopez, C, New Jersey Nets, (17.05, 10th) – Lopez has exceeded expectations more than any other player in the lottery. He is already a solid NBA center at the tender age of 20. Between Lopez and Harris, the Nets are set for a long while at the two toughest positions to fill.

Michael Beasley, SF, Miami Heat, (15.67, 2nd) – Part of the reason the Heat were willing to deal Shawn Marion is that they feel Beasley is ready to take on a larger role. Beasley is ridiculously talented, but there are questions about his defense and shot selection. If he can maintain his scoring output while improving his efficiency, he could soar to the top of this class.

Quality Starters

Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies, (16.09, 48th in 2007) – Gasol has played so well that he has made the trade for his older brother look somewhat respectable. The 24-year-old is among the plethora of quality rookie centers.

Jason Thompson, PF, Sacramento Kings, (13.52, 12th) – The man Joe Dumars allegedly wanted for the Pistons has shown flashed of brilliance on the court. He has cooled after a quick start, but he should be able to form a dynamic frontcourt with Spencer Hawes as the Kings rebuild.

D.J. Augustin, PG, Charlotte Bobcats, (14.45, 9th) – Any rookie point guard who earns trust and praise from Larry Brown has to be taken seriously. Augustin is lightning quick. He should improve quickly under Brown’s tutelage.

Good Backups

Rudy Fernandez, SG, Portland Trail Blazers, (15.55, 24th in 2007) – The comparisons to Manu Ginobili were inevitable for the gifted Spaniard. He has been a dynamo off the bench for Portland. If Brandon Roy continues to block him from the starting lineup, he will compete for Sixth Man of the Year honors regularly.

Marreese Speights, PF, Philadelphia 76ers, (21.06, 16th) – The fact that he ranks this low says heaps about the depth of this rookie class. Speights’ per-minute numbers are awesome. The Florida product will have the opportunity to prove that he can maintain his production in extended minutes now that Elton Brand is on the shelf.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, SF, Milwaukee Bucks, (11.84, 37th) – Mbah a Moute plays great defense and is a strong rebounder. He struggles to do much offensively, but he should stick in the NBA for a decade.

Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers, (17.48, 17th) – Hibbert has been a poor fit on the up-tempo Pacers, but he has been effective in limited minutes. The centers playing in front of Hibbert – Jeff Foster and Rasho Neterovic – are both 32, so Hibbert should have a chance to carve out a larger role in future seasons.

Courtney Lee, SG, Orlando Magic, (10.92, 22nd) – Another player who should benefit from a recent injury, Lee should see time at point guard with Jameer Nelson out. Lee is an excellent defender in the mold Arron Afflalo.

Rotation Players

George Hill, PG, San Antonio Spurs, (12.28, 26th) – Hill has struggled with his shot, but has been solid in other areas for the Spurs. With Gregg Popovich’s help, Hill should develop into a strong backup behind Tony Parker.

JaVale McGee, PF, Washington Wizards, (16.97, 18th) – The Flint, Michigan native has been a bright spot during an otherwise dreary season in Washington. He is long and athletic, but still has plenty of room to improve on both ends of the court.

Nicolas Batum, SF, Portland Trail Blazers, (11.64, 25th) – Batum has had ample opportunity to strut his stuff while Martell Webster tries to come back from injury. The Frenchman can shoot the three and defend. If he can add anything else to his repitorie, he has serious potential.

Jerryd Bayless, PG, Portland Trail Blazers, (10.89, 11th) – The fourth Blazer to appear on this list has been woefully inconsistent. He has the physical tools to produce in this league. It remains to be seen if he can put those tools together.

J.J. Hickson, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers, (14.40, 19th) – Hickson is another player who Dumars was rumored to be interested in. His role should expand as Ben Wallace’s athleticism continues to deteriorate.

Mario Chalmers, PG, Miami Heat, (13.36, 34th) – The former Jayhawk has been forced into a starting role with the Heat. He has a great outside shot, but otherwise has not shown enough to warrant a permanent spot in the starting lineup.

Anthony Morrow, SG, Golden State Warriors, (15.57, Undrafted) – Morrow has shown a deft touch from outside, but he would struggle to replicate his per-minute numbers without the Warriors’ run-and-gun system.

Others to Watch

These players have either been inconsistent, lacked minutes, or some combination of the two.

Ryan Anderson, PF, New Jersey Nets, (13.05, 21st)
Kosta Koufos, C, Utah Jazz, (15.62, 23rd)
Anthony Randolph, PF, Golden State Warriors, (15.52, 14th)
Danilo Gallinari, SF, New York Knicks, (13.69, 6th)
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers, (12.90, 35th)
Joe Alexander, SF, Milwaukee Bucks, (10.52, 8th)
Darrell Arthur, PF, Memphis Grizzlies, (9.65, 27th)

Fastbreak Buckets 2.12.2009

2009-02-12T20:58:00.002-05:00

This edition of Fastbreak Buckets will be an around the league edition since far too many Piston related topics are simply depressing right now.

- Individuals in the Cavalier organization, from the owner to the overpaid former Piston, acted as if a travesty had been committed when Mo Williams was left off the All-Star Team until two spots opened up due to injury. The gist of their argument is that the Cavs have a gaudy record, others teams with similar gaudy records all have multiple All-Stars, therefore they deserve multiple All-Stars. This theory is flawed beyond belief.

First off, the Cavs do have two players worthy of playing in the All-Star Game in LeBron James and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Ilgauskas went down with an injury that kept him out most of January and thus submarined his chance of making the team.

With or without Ilgauskas on the team, Williams simply does not belong. The Cavaliers claim that their players should be rewarded for the team’s success, but the All-Star Game is simply not the correct venue. Teams that win games are rewarded for their success in the spring, when they earn a high seed in the playoffs. The All-Star Game is the prize for the individuals who have had the most success, regardless of their teammates.

The player that many analysts believe was undeservingly given Williams’ spot is Devin Harris. How they can make this claim is baffling. Harris is averaging four more points per game despite attempting just one more field goal a night than Williams. Harris is also well ahead in assists and steals. As a result, Harris’ PER of 22.7 puts the 17.0 mark of Williams to shame. To put that in perspective, that gap in PER is similar to the difference between Allen Iverson with the Pistons and Allen Iverson with Philly in 2002. The fact that Cleveland is 17 games ahead of New Jersey has nothing to do with Cleveland having a superior point guard and everything to do with the difference between playing LeBron James and Bobby Simmons at small forward. It’s bad enough that Harris – an elite point guard – plays for a borderline playoff team because of a lame supporting cast. Compounding his misery by keeping him off the All-Star Team because of that same supporting cast would be excessive.

-One player with a legitimate gripe about not making the All-Star Team is Kevin Durant. Few are paying attention to the lowly Thunder, but their second year small forward has been sensational of late. P.J. Carlesimo played Durant, out of position, at shooting guard last season and at the start of this one. Since Carlesimo was fired and new coach Scott Brooks moved Durant to his natural position – small forward – Durant has been one of the most dominant offensive forces in the game.

In 41 games since Brooks took the clipboard, Durant is averaging 26.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game on 48.8% shooting. He has also making an average of 1.6 three pointers and 6.6 free throws per contest during that stretch. In 16 games from January 9th to February 10th, Durant scored fewer than 27 points only twice. If Durant has not already passed Carmelo Anthony and Paul Pierce to establish himself as the best small forward not named LeBron James, he appears to be well on his way.

- The injury woes that have hammered the Milwaukee Bucks have come with a pair of blessings in disguise. Two of their young players have emerged as building blocks for the future of the franchise. Ramon Sessions might have been the steal of the 2007 draft based on his recent play. The 56th pick in ’07 draft has been starting in place of the injured Luke Ridnour. In his last five games, Sessions is averaging an incredible 24.8 points, 9.8 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game despite just taking 13.8 shots a night. He has done so by converting 53.6% of his field goal attempts and living at the free throw line to the tune of nearly 12 attempts per game.

The other Buck having a coming out party this season is Charlie Villanueva. After a lackluster first two and a half seasons in Milwaukee, he has exploded into 2009. Since the calendar turned, he is averaging over 20 points, nearly seven rebounds, and roughly a block and a steal per game, despite turning the ball over just one a half times per contest. He has made over half of his field goal tries and better than 40% of his 89 three point attempts during 22 games this year. The strong play of Sessions and Villanueva is the primary reason the Bucks are hanging in the playoff race despite a beaten up roster that was lackluster to begin with.

Flip-ing Off The Offense

2009-02-10T22:17:00.005-05:00

With all the talk about the Pistons’ inconsistent defense, the real problem has been the offense. In the previous three seasons, the Pistons placed somewhere between fourth and seventh in the NBA in both offensive efficiency* and defensive efficiency* every season. While that shows remarkable consistency, it also proves that the Pistons’ performance did not mesh with their reputation as an all-defense, some-offense outfit. Instead, the Pistons were a remarkably balanced team that excelled on both sides of the ball.

This season, the balance is gone. When the Pistons traded Chauncey Billups – a strong defender – for notoriously poor defender Allen Iverson, slippage on defense was to be expected. Not surprisingly, the Pistons have fallen to 11th in defensive efficiency this season.

The roster moves do not, however, fully explain the deterioration of the teams’ offense. The Pistons began this season with last season’s rotation mostly intact – save for the Billups/Iverson swap and the loss of Jarvis Hayes. Iverson is one of the most prolific scorers of all time, while Hayes is a streak shooter who can do little else, so it would have been reasonable to expect the Pistons to replicate last season’s results offensively.

The Pistons have not, however, come anywhere close to matching last season’s performance offensively. After three straight seasons with a top-six offense, the Pistons have fallen to 21st in offensive efficiency. The Pistons lead only Charlotte and Memphis in points per game, but that is, in part, a product of the team’s relatively slow pace. The fact that the Pistons are in the bottom third of NBA teams in offensive efficiency requires no such qualifiers; the Pistons have been a poor offensive team this season.

In spite of their reputations, Billups is actually a much better offensive player than Iverson. That swap explains some of the offensive problems, but the disparity between the players is not nearly large enough to explain the difference between an elite offensive team and a below average one. Since the personnel do not fully explain the plunge in offense, the likely culprit seems to be the coach.

Michael Curry simply has not done enough to put his players in a position to succeed. The ball movement, player movement, and spacing that were so prevalent under Flip Saunders have all diminished enormously. The Pistons have lost more than two assists per game off of their average from last season. Players like RIP Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince have had to find much more off of their offense through isolations, compared to previous seasons when they relied more heavily on screens and off the ball movement. Last season, 53% off Prince’s baskets were assisted. This season, that number has plummeted to 36%.

Flip Saunders had many faults as a coach; he struggled to connect with his players, players such as Rasheed Wallace often ignored his instructions down the stretch of close games, and his playoff record leaves something to be desired. With that said, Saunders’ playbook and ability to make in-game adjustments offensively were exceptional. Saunders is one of the best in the world at constructing offensive schemes.

Saunders was proficient at hiding limited offensive players like Ben Wallace, Amir Johnson, and Dale Davis. They would set picks, occasionally go backdoor for a dunk, and remain in position to fight for offensive rebounds, all while staying out of the way of their more skilled teammates. This season, Johnson, Kwame Brown, and to a lesser extent Jason Maxiell, seem to simply clog the paint on offense. They tend to drift near the basket without apparent purpose. While part of this can be pinned on the players, Curry deserves much of the blame.

With all of the talk about Curry’s starting lineups and rotations, his inability to mold a first rate offense out of so many talented parts has been his biggest failing. Curry is in his first season as coach so there is plenty of room for Curry to develop. In the meantime, Piston fans should appreciate what they had in Flip Saunders and hope that Curry either learns how to implement a productive offense or is replaced by someone who can.

(H/T to BasketballReference.com and 82games.com for stats. Also, Kelly Dwyer was ahead of the curve with this one.)

*Offensive Efficiency is a measure of points scored per possession, while defensive efficiency measures points allowed per possession. The efficiency statistics take pace into account, while per game numbers do not.

Victim of Their Own Success

2009-02-09T23:28:00.002-05:00

The Pistons may be a victim of their own success. For all the talk about coaching and chemistry, talent is the biggest determinant of success. Teams with a superstar – or better yet, multiple superstars – have a major step up on the competition.

The problem for the Pistons is that most superstars are claimed at the top of the draft. Three of the NBA’s top-five teams – the Magic, Spurs, and Cavaliers – are built around players who they drafted first overall. Among the eight NBA teams with at least 31 wins this season, five have a player whom they selected with the top pick. Among the top-26 NBA players in PER, nearly all of them were high drafts picks.

Of the 26 players leading the NBA in PER, only nine were selected later than sixth in the draft. Of those nine players, four are foreign players, three of whom (Nowitzki, Parker, and Ginobili) were drafted at a time when NBA teams were generally undervaluing foreign prospects.

Among those 26 players, 17 are still with their original teams. Two others (Garnett, Jefferson) are only no longer with their original teams because they were traded for each other. O’Neal and Boozer both used free agency to leave teams that would have preferred to keep them. That leaves Pau Gasol and Devin Harris as the only members of the league’s top-21 players, based on PER, who were traded away in a deal that did not net another top-21 player. Not surprisingly, there was outrage over the Gasol deal, while the Harris deal was a miscalculation by Dallas.

In order to nab a star, a team’s best bet is to lose enough games to earn a high lottery pick. Occasionally a team can strike gold with a later pick; however the odds of succeeding in that regard are poor. There are alternative methods to building a contender – such as developing castoffs like Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace into stars – but this tactic fails far more often than not. Of the past 25 NBA Champions, the best player on every single one of those teams was a player drafted in the top-5 (Bird, Magic, Isiah, Jordan, Olajuwon, Duncan, O’Neal, Billups, Wade, and Garnett).

As a result of the Pistons’ recent success, they have been drafting in the wrong half of the first round far too often to find a superstar. They were handed a gift from the basketball gods when a 1997 trade gave the Pistons the second overall pick in the 2003 draft; however Joe Dumars made a rare blunder and botched the opportunity by selecting Darko Milicic. The Milicic pick was the only top-14 pick the Pistons have had in the past seven drafts.

The trade for Allen Iverson will be worth every loss if Dumars is able to use the resulting cap flexibility to land a superstar. If not, the Pistons will likely have to enter the league’s basement if they ever hope to return to its penthouse.

RIP Rollin'

2009-02-08T16:18:00.002-05:00

When asked to assess how RIP Hamilton has performed as a reserve, team president Joe Dumars said: “I think RIP has handled this exceptionally well.” Has he ever. As a reserve, Hamilton has essentially matched his averages as a starter despite playing far fewer minutes. Hamilton has thrived as the leader of the second unit, in part because he has the green light to be much more aggressive.

Hamilton’s point per minute and assist per minute numbers have both been substantially better as a reserve. When the Pistons played small ball, Hamilton began halves on the floor at the same time as Rodney Stuckey, Allen Iverson, and Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace; this put the Pistons’ top five offensive players on the court simultaneously. With only one ball to go around, there were not enough shot opportunities to fully utilize the skills of all five players. With Hamilton in a reserve role, he has typically been on the court with one to three of the aforementioned players. As a result, he has had his number called far more frequently while in the game.

While Hamilton is no longer starting games or playing as many minutes, he is finishing games and attempting just as many shots per game as he had previously. Manu Ginobili, Jason Terry, and J.R. Smith are among the perimeter players with starter talent who have excelled as high-scoring backups. Hamilton appears to be well on his way to earning that description.

Trade Season

2009-02-06T19:24:00.004-05:00

Trade rumor season is in full force. With the trade deadline less than two weeks away, teams must determine a course of action for the remainder of the season. Some teams are looking for the piece that could potentially put them over the top; others are looking to clear salary, while a few simply want to clean up chemistry problems.

The Pistons should be trying to acquire young talent so long as they avoid doing too much harm to their impending salary cap flexibility. Rodney Stuckey is probably the only untouchable on the roster, but it’s hard to imagine that Joe Dumars would deal Tayshaun Prince. Also, after the financial sacrifice Antonio McDyess made to return to the Pistons, there is no way Dumars would trade McDyess unless the veteran requests a move. With that in mind, I went to work with ESPN’s Trade Machine.

Trade Idea #1: Pistons trade Rasheed Wallace, Amir Johnson, Arron Afflalo, and Will Bynum to Phoenix for Amar’e Stoudemire and Goran Dragic.

The Pistons could do their 2010 shopping early, although they would be forced to pay a steep price. Stoudemire has ruffled feathers in Phoenix with his lackadaisical defense and poor rebounding. Word out of Phoenix is that he is unhappy with Terry Porter and does not like the idea that Shaquille O’Neal is the focal point of the offense. The Pistons would be making a serious gamble by giving up two of its young assets to acquire the mercurial Stoudemire, but they would have a better chance to contend for the next two seasons and if things do not work out, they would actually be in even better position for the summer of 2010.

From Phoenix’s standpoint, this deal makes a lot of sense if they determine that the Nash-Stoudemire-O’Neal tandem is hopeless. Wallace is a better than Stoudemire alongside O’Neal because of his defense and long-range shooting. Phoenix injects some youth into a franchise that could otherwise be dreadful after 2010. Lastly, Bynum would upgrade the backup point guard position while ridding the Suns of Dragic’s three-year deal.

Trade Idea #2: Pistons trade Allen Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, Amir Johnson, and Arron Afflalo to Toronto for Chris Bosh, Jermaine O’Neal, and Joey Graham.

The Raptors are in serious trouble of entering the league’s basement for the first half of the next decade. O’Neal has not provided the defensive lift many had hoped for and the Raptors have taken a step back this season. The team is also short on assets and young talent. Chris Bosh has to be salivating at the prospect of getting out of this mess. If the Raptors do not trade him, he might do just that in 2010. By making this trade, the Raptors would clear O’Neal’s contract off the books a year early, add two young pieces, and get a head start on re-building.

From this Pistons’ standpoint, this might be the only plausible deal that could move them back into contention for this season. The Pistons would make a run at a title in 2009 and 2010 with a starting lineup of Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Bosh and O’Neal backed up by Bynum, Graham, Maxiell and McDyess. After the 2010 season, O’Neal’s massive contract would come off the books while Bosh would become a free agent. The Pistons would probably want to re-sign Bosh, but if that plans fails, they would have plenty of cap space to work with.

Trade Idea #3: Pistons trade Tayshaun Prince, Jason Maxiell, and Walter Herrmann to Toronto for Chris Bosh.

Again, the Raptors only consider this deal if they are convinced they are going to lose Bosh in 2010. They would add two players to build around in Prince and Maxiell, both of whom are under contract into the next decade.

The Pistons would add the superstar big man they have craved while making room in the starting lineup for Hamilton. Losing Prince would hurt, but adding a superstar like Bosh would clearly come at a price. At the end of this season, the Pistons would have a core of Stuckey, Hamilton, and Bosh plus a ton of available cap room.

Trade Idea #4a: Pistons trade Rasheed Wallace to Houston for Ron Artest, Carl Landry, and Luther Head.

The Pistons would not have much interest in Artest, but he has an expiring contract which they could either flip or buy out. The other option would be to send Artest somewhere as part of a three way trade (Trade Possibility #4b). Even if the Pistons limit the deal to two teams, they would acquire a nice young piece in Landry without doing too much damage to their salary cap flexibility.

The Rockets have a glut on the wings with McGrady, Artest, and Battier. Using Artest to upgrade the power forward position would enhance their chances of making an extended playoff run this spring.

Trade Possibility #5.

I like this deal because the Pistons improve their core without losing Stuckey, Afflalo, Prince, or Johnson. (If I’m making up crazy trades with the trade machine, I have the right to dream, right?)

21 Reasons to Hope

2009-02-03T19:09:00.002-05:00

The Pistons are an uninspiring 21-21 since the arrival of Allen Iverson. With pessimism spreading through Piston Nation, it’s time to run through the 21 reasons for Piston fans to be optimistic.

1. Rodney Stuckey. Stuckey is already a very good player, but he is on the fast track to stardom. The second year guard plays like a poor man’s cross between Dwyane Wade and Chauncey Billups. At the rate he’s progressing, “poor man’s” might be taken out of the analogy soon.

2. Draft Pick. The Pistons are playing just poorly enough that they might end up with a decent draft pick. When Dumars has drafted between picks 15 and 27, he has landed Tayshaun Prince, Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, and Arron Afflalo. The only pick in that range he would like to have back was the Carlos Delfino pick of 2003. This season, the Pistons will likely end up drafting in the late teens.

3. Reduced Wear and Tear. The Piston veterans have experienced grueling playoff runs each of the past seven seasons. An extended summer vacation may help revitalize them for future seasons.

4. April Will Matter. For the first since 2003, the Pistons might actually play April games that impact their playoff position. Only once since 2003 has an Eastern conference team finished fewer than five games away from the Pistons in the standings. The exception was 2007, when the Pistons finished three games ahead of the Cavaliers.

5. Joe Dumars. In Joe We (Should) Trust. He has been phenomenal as the general manager in Detroit. Even when he has made a mistake, he has been quick to compensate with a brilliant maneuver. If anyone can fix this mess, it is Dumars.

6. Iverson’s Days are Numbered. All-Star Allen Iverson has said he plans to test the free agent market this summer. That seems like a good idea, since the Pistons surely will not want to retain him. Aside from the possibility of addition by subtraction, this seems like a perfect opportunity for Bill Simmons’ “Ewing Theory” to strike.

7. Cap Space. When Iverson leaves, cap space will arrive. The last three times Dumars made serious plays in free agency, he landed Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess, and Nazr Mohammad. Two for three is a light years better than most organizations perform with free agent money.

8. Experimenting. Michael Curry has changed starting lineups and rotations more times than I’d care to remember. While that may have had disastrous effects on the team’s performance thus far, logic suggests that if he continues to test new ideas, eventually something should work. Maybe he should try benching Iverson.

9. Jason Maxiell. The “Baby Eater” is under contract through 2013. That gives him plenty of time to consume babies and do things like this.

10. No Losing in the Conference Finals. This is far from a given, but it looks like the Pistons streak of ending their season with a game-six loss in the conference finals will end at three. The preseason goal was to end the streak via improvement; however the Pistons appear to be taking a different approach.

11. Underdog Status. The Pistons of old relished the underdog mentality. They used perceived disrespect as a motivational tool. The Pistons have now regained underdog status. Step two is regaining underdog intensity.

12. Tayshaun Prince. The Pistons’ iron man has been one of the elite small forwards in the NBA for the last six seasons and has shown no signs of slowing down.

13. No More Flipping the Switch. For years – specifically the last two – there was talk the Pistons would flip a proverbial switch and play hard only when motivated. The current incarnation of the Piston is not good enough to earn such reports.

14. The Coaching Can Only Improve. As far as coaching goes, it is difficult to imagine the Pistons could possibly employ someone who performs worse than Curry has so far. Curry will have to improve or he will be fired, either of which would be progress.

15. Kwame’s Out. Michael Curry recently made it clear – through words and actions – that Kwame Brown will be spending the majority of games glued to the bench. Brown appears to finally be in a role that suits his talents: fifth big man on a team that typically plays four.

16. Longer Summer. The Pistons have kept their fans busy throughout May and often into June for the past six seasons. This summer, Piston fans should have much more time to enjoy the sun.

17. Arron Afflao. “Aflac” is a keeper who should play a much bigger role next season, when fellow shooting guard Allen Iverson departs. Afflalo’s defense and outside shooting would be valuable on any team.

18. No More Arrogance. The media has been annoyed with a perceived arrogance from the Pistons in recent seasons. One way to cure arrogance is to stop winning. In that sense, the Pistons appear to be fixing one of their character flaws.

19. No More Flip. At least before the season, less Flip Saunders seemed like a good thing.

20. Fun Gossip. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey has chosen to chronicle the Pistons’ struggles like a soap opera. Over the past two weeks, he has written articles – which may or may not be factual – about Dumars trying to trade Prince, dead team spirits, players lacking confidence, and a team that has little respect or trust in its coach. His sources are anonymous and his credibility is waning, but there is some entertainment value.

21. Amir Johnson. The 21st reason for Pistons fans to be optimistic is the continued development of one of basketball’s most talented 21-year olds. The young forward is already a game charger on the glass and with his defense. There are questions about his offense, but with time and opportunity, he might be better on that end than some anticipate.

Out of Focus

2009-02-02T17:15:00.004-05:00

A big part of the reason Michael Curry elected to bench RIP Hamilton instead of Allen Iverson was that he needed to pair Hamilton with Will Bynum off the bench. Bynum worked to learn Hamilton’s tendencies and was beginning to develop chemistry with the three-time All-Star. Also, Bynum and Iverson are too small to play together, so Curry could not afford to play both with the second unit.

Curry has recently taken Bynum out of the rotation – Bynum has played just one minute total during the past four games. Now that Bynum is essentially out of the mix, Curry needs to re-consider his starting lineup. I explained here and here why RIP should be starting over Iverson. Iverson demonstrated with pitiful defense (explained here), poor shot selection (explained here), and poor results (evidence here), that he should not be starting. Michael Rosenberg did an outstanding job of explaining this very issue in today's Detroit Free Press.

Iverson, on the other hands, told the Detroit Free Press he wants to be an even bigger part of the Pistons’ offensive attack.

"I would love to be a focal part on the offensive end," [Iverson] said. "That's where I've been all my career. And that's why I play the game. That's the type of competitor I am. In crucial situations, I want the ball in my hands. But like I've been saying all along: The calls they make, I trust my teammates and the coaching staff to be able to get us over the hump."

It’s a good thing Iverson isn’t coaching. He was the “focal part” of the offense for ten full seasons in Philadelphia. From 1997 until 2006, the 76ers were 21st, 21st, 23rd, 25th, 13th, 23rd, 11th, 26th, 24th and 15th, by season, in offensive efficiency*. In total, the Iverson-led 76ers were in the bottom third of the NBA in offensive efficiency seven times, but did not finish in the top third once**. The Pistons are currently 23rd in offensive efficiency. They had finished amongst the top-six teams in offensive efficiency each of the previous three seasons. The Pistons would be well-served to take Iverson’s advice and do the exact opposite.

*Offensive efficiency is a measure of points scored per possession.
**There were 29 teams during the first seven seasons (through 2003) and 30 during the final three.

The Answer: Fewer Dumb Shots

2009-01-30T13:16:00.007-05:00

82games.com has done some very cool stat tracking in recent years. One of the stat breakdowns within shooting stats is a breakdown of shooting by shot clock situation. This is useful for a variety of reasons.

First off, one can compare teams and learn about their tendencies. For example, the open court, Mike D’Antoni led Knicks take 37 percent of their shots during the first ten seconds of the shot clock. The Pistons, in contrast, take only 33 percent of their shots during the first ten seconds of the shot clock. Based on effective field goal percentage* (eFG%), the Knicks have been much more successful than the Pistons on those early shots. On the other hand, the Pistons have been more efficient with their half court offense. The results are evident in the stats, which show that the Pistons have a higher eFG% in the later part of the shot clock.

The other benefit of the stat breakdown is that it conveys information about individual players. A player like Tayshaun Prince may appear to be a poor shooter based on a sub-par eFG%, but when one digs a little deeper, a different story is told. Prince takes 28% of his shots during the last four seconds of the shot clock – an incredibly high amount – and converts those shots at a 43.2 eFG%. What this means is that Prince is often called upon to bail the Pistons out at the end of the shot clock and he does a very good job of doing just that. It also shows how Prince can be one of the best offensive players on the Pistons despite a middling effective field goal percentage.

On the other end of the spectrum is Allen Iverson. The shot clock usage shooting breakdowns for the Pistons and for Allen Iverson are below.

What this shows is that Iverson is taking a high percentage of his shots – 36 percent – early in the shot clock. However, Iverson has been horribly inefficient with those shots. Typically, players only take shots in the early part of the shot clock if they have a layup, dunk, or wide open look. As a result, most players have an early shot clock eFG% in the fifties, if not higher. Amir Johnson, for example, has made 69.4 percent of the shots he has taken in the first ten seconds of the shot clock. Excluding Iverson, the Pistons have roughly a 56 eFG% on shots early in the shot clock.

Iverson’s mark of 40.6% is simply unacceptable. He is clearly taking far too many difficult shots early in the shot clock. This is not a fluke based upon a small sample size either; Iverson has taken well over 200 shots early in the shot clock. He needed to make about 40 more of those in order to post an eFG% on par with the rest of his team.

In the first ten seconds of the shot clock, a player still has time to kick the ball out to a point guard and run a play. Through a play, the Pistons are almost certainly capable of creating a far better shot than one that yields only a 40.6 eFG%. The fact that Iverson has opted to take such a high quantity of low percentage shots implies selfish play.

The usually astute Kelly Dwyer noted on Monday that the Pistons are struggling this season:

And Detroit, whatever it is, they just don't have it. This team continues to lose, even when it plays well, even when the whole team is interested.
…
You can't blame this on Allen Iverson. Don't even start. Detroit's issues run far deeper than that.

He argues that all of the Pistons problems cannot be pinned on Iverson. Maybe so, but it surely does not help that the team’s highest paid player and supposed offensive whiz is killing the team with horrendous decision making and ineffective shooting.

*Effective Field Goal Percentage equals (FG+0.5*3P)/FGA. The statistic adjusts field goal percentage to account for the additional value of a made three pointer.
(Thanks to 82games.com and Basketball-Reference.com for stats, tables, and formulas)

The Eternally Half Full Glass

2009-01-28T23:19:00.003-05:00

The Pistons are up to their old tricks. For the fifth consecutive season, the organization has proven to be masters of the positive spin. The Pistons won a championship in 2004. Ever since, regardless of the situation, the Pistons always make it seem like everything is going as planned and they are positioning themselves to win a championship. In each of the four previous seasons, their projections were overly optimistic. It is hard to imagine that this season will be any different – unless of course one consults one of the Pistons.

In 2005, the defending champion Pistons were not dominating the regular season like many had hoped. Not to worry; the Pistons had a plan. They simply had to wade through the regular season, ensure that key players were healthy and fresh for the playoffs, and win just enough games to earn a respectable seed for the playoffs. Then, come playoff time, they could cruise to a second consecutive championship. The plan backfired in the playoffs. The Pistons did not have home court advantage against Miami and survived a seven game series thanks in large part to an injury to Dwyane Wade. In the finals, the Pistons were not as fortunate and lost game seven in San Antonio. The lack of home court advantage hurt them in both series.

The next season, the Pistons allegedly had a solution. First, the overly controlling Larry Brown was out as coach. Flip Saunders stepped in and was prepared to loosen the reigns. The theory was that a veteran squad like the Pistons needed a few simple directives from a coach and could handle the rest on their own. The Pistons also believed that they were doomed by a lack of home court advantage the previous season. As a result, they were determined to do everything possible to achieve the league's best record. The Pistons accomplished that goal by winning a franchise record 64 games. Once again, the plan flopped. In order to post the league's best record, the Pistons wore out their main players. The five starters and Antonio McDyess combined to play over 80 percent of available minutes – an insanely high total for just six players. As a result, during the playoffs, the Pistons starters appeared run down while the Pistons' bench was not prepared to contribute. The Pistons flamed out against Miami that season.

The Pistons claimed to have a solution for 2007. They would scale back the intensity during the regular season in order to preserve themselves for the playoffs. Also they would develop young reserves Jason Maxiell and Carlos Delfino to inject youth into the lineup while strengthening the bench. The plan seemed to work, until Flip Saunders abandoned his bench during the playoffs. Maxiell and Delfino had combined to average more than 30 minutes per game during the regular season, but they saw a combined, cumulative total of just 23 minutes during the three losses in Cleveland. Cleveland upset Detroit and the Pistons were sent home early again.

Last season, Saunders assured fans that he had learned from his mistakes. Also, the team was finally starting McDyess meaning that, for the first time in ages, the Pistons had five starters who could play effectively on both ends of the court. However, once the playoffs began, Saunders reverted to a seven man rotation. During the Pistons’ 17-game playoff run, Theo Ratliff was eighth in total minutes with 131. Partially as a result of his continued inability to trust his bench, Saunders was fired after the Pistons fell victim to the Celtics.

In 2009, the spin-doctors are back to work. The Pistons have been a combination of inconsistent and mediocre since Iverson joined the team nearly three months ago. Every time they appear to turn a corner – whether with big wins against the Cavaliers and Lakers or with the seven-game winning streak that began in December – they play horribly during the subsequent games.

Nonetheless, yesterday’s Detroit News featured an article titled “Will Pistons' funk serve as blessing?” The argument is that the Pistons have not faced adversity in a long time. In the long run, they will be better off by learning from the current adversity, the theory goes. Maybe it is time the Pistons quit trying to look at the glass as half full and start trying to fill up the metaphorical glass with better basketball and more wins. After all, the articles about them playing great are much more fun to read than the ones about why it is great that they are not.

Fastbreak Buckets 1.27.09

2009-01-27T12:14:00.010-05:00

Today’s edition of fastbreak buckets is a blockquote special.

-Interesting tidbit in the Monday’s Boston Globe. (H/T TrueHoop)

[Ray] Allen started wearing [a sleeve] when he was in a horrific slump during the Detroit series last spring. He wears the sleeve on just his left arm - sort of like Michael Jackson without the creepiness.
"Rip Hamilton grew his fingernails long and he was scratching me," explained Allen. "I needed the sleeve to shield me from those nails. And I've stayed with it."

Those are the type of tactics that earn a player “wily veteran” status from his fans and “dirty player” labels from his opponents. One thing that cannot be questioned is RIP’s willingness to do whatever it takes to win.

-Anonymous scouts are to sports what tabloids are to pop culture. They can both create unsubstantiated nonsense which appears as fact in print. The New York Post’s Peter Vescey, who usually does a much better job with his NBA coverage, had two quotes worth of anonymous rubbish in his Sunday column. (H/T Need4Sheed)

"[The Pistons] are playing with no emotion," says a long-distance viewer. Allen Iverson "has killed the team's spirit with his style of play."

I have noticed an inefficient offense, inconsistent defense, and poor coaching, but if a “long-distance viewer” can detect a dead spirit, maybe he knows something the rest of us do not.

So hooked on economics is Dumars, an agent testifies, he was prepared to deal treasured Tayshaun Prince for Stephen Jackson (or maybe it was Ron Artest) whose contract was set to terminate after next season.

It was one thing for the Pistons to trade Billups for cap space in an attempt to balance the roster; the Pistons had two quality point guards in Billups and Stuckey, but needed frontcourt help. Dumars elected to trade Billups for impending cap room which he will try to use to lure a big man, thus balancing the roster. Prince is a completely separate issue. If the Pistons were to trade Prince for cap room, they would have cap room and a major hole at small forward to fill. They would probably have to use that cap room to sign a small forward – probably a small forward very much like Prince. Dumars chimed in with his thoughts on the assertion.

"That's absolutely false! I'm not trading Prince, period," Dumars fumed.

-Piston players have made some disturbing comment about their coach recently.

Iverson, to The Detroit News, on the Pistons’ poor defense against Houston:

"Have you talked to MC yet?" Allen Iverson asked, referring to coach Michael Curry. "He should have the answers. He knows better than me why we're not getting it done."
…
"If it looked like we were playing a zone, and we weren't, that's not good," Iverson said.

More from Iverson in today's Detroit News.

"I would be lying if I said I wasn't frustrated," Iverson said. "I just feel like I can offer more to the team. I can do more to help us win games, and when that opportunity presents itself, I will be right here to take the challenge."

Tayshaun Prince hinted at displeasure with the coaching staff in this Detroit News article. He said the Pistons need to stop worrying about coaching schemes and simply play better. Reading between the lines, if they need to stop worrying about coaching schemes, that implies that players currently are worrying about coaching schemes.

"At some point you have to put all that aside and not worry about the X's and O's and just do what you have to do defensively as far as taking a challenge. I don't think we are doing that in the first quarters."
…
"It's tough because you would think at this point we would have found our way and we haven't," Prince said.

Rasheed Wallace was slightly less subtle than Prince when he spoke with The Detroit News.

"I guess you can say we were confused early," said Rasheed Wallace, who voiced his displeasure to Curry twice early in the game. "We figured it out in the second half but by then it was too late."

Wallace on his lack of fourth quarter touches against Houston after scoring ten points in the third quarter.

"It wasn't my call," Wallace said. "Just got to go with the flow, I guess."

Who Should Close? (Non-Tigers Edition)

2009-01-26T23:31:00.001-05:00

Now that the Pistons seem to have settled on a starting lineup, Michael Curry faces an even more important question: which five players will be on the court to finish close games? In the first three games since Curry moved Hamilton to the bench, the outcome of the game has dictated the finishing lineup for him. The games against Toronto and Dallas were not close in the fourth quarter and the closing lineup was irrelevant. In the game against Houston, the Pistons trailed by 15 in the fourth quarter, so when the score tightened up, Curry elected to stick with the players who led the comeback.

Should the Pistons play a close game sometime in the near future, Curry will face an interesting dilemma. Two players – Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess – appear to be safe. They are the team’s best interior players and Curry values their defense, rebounding, and outside shooting.

The remaining three positions are less clear. Tayshaun Prince is the team’s best perimeter defender and probably its best overall player. He almost definitely should be in the game down the stretch.

RIP Hamilton has been the focus of the Pistons’ offense down the stretch for the past several years. Among returning Pistons, he was by far the most effective clutch* performer last season. Curry also promised Hamilton roughly 30 minutes per game. Hamilton has been entering games roughly nine minutes into each half, so he has to be on the floor the entire second and fourth quarters in order to reach the aforementioned 30-minute mark.

Allen Iverson has been the go-to guy down the stretch for the Pistons most of this year. He was acquired because of his ability to break down a defense – precisely the type of skill that is most useful at the end of close games, when defenses tighten up.

Rodney Stuckey is the best point guard on the team. He also appears to be the centerpiece Joe Dumars would like to build the team around. Since the Pistons seem to be making moves with an eye toward the future, the team needs to ensure that its youngest star gains experience in clutch situations.

Prince, Hamilton, Iverson, and Stuckey all have very compelling cases to be on the court when the game is on the line. There is no easy answer for Curry. As far as egos are concerned, the safest option – benching Stuckey – may very well be the worst option. Part of the reason the Pistons traded Chauncey Billups was that the team wanted Stuckey to take the reins of the franchise and receive on the job training. It would be foolish of the Pistons to expand Stuckey’s role, only to make him watch the most important moments of a game from the bench.

The strategy that makes the most sense is for Curry to ride the hot hand between Iverson and Hamilton. Whichever shooting guard is having a better game should earn the opportunity to finish the game. If either Stuckey or Prince is way off his game, there are situations where the struggling player should sit, however those two players are able to impact a game in so many ways that it would be difficult to take either out of a close game.

Neither Iverson or Hamilton will like the fact that they will occasionally be seated during crunch time. Hopefully they will understand that if the Pistons are going to accomplish something they have not done often lately – win – they need a balanced lineup that only has room for one of them on the court.

*Clutch is defined by 82games.com as any point in the 4th quarter or overtime where there is less than five minutes left and neither team is ahead by more than five points

Midseason Report Card (Part II)

2009-01-24T15:01:00.003-05:00

At 24-17 the Pistons have reached the mid-point of their season. That means it is time for midseason grades. Grades are based upon how well players have performed relative to expectations thus far in the 2008-2009 season. Click here for Part I, where I graded the starters.

Reserves

RIP Hamitlon: Hamilton has been the Pistons’ leading scorer for the last season so he showed a ton of humility in accepting a bench role, even if he might have done so begrudgingly. On the season, Hamilton has struggled without his partner in crime – Billups. His current scoring average would be the lowest since his rookie season. Hamilton was also worked over by a number of small forwards when he was asked to play out of position in small ball arrangements. The Pistons will now find out if he can be more productive as the focal point of the offense with the second unit. Grade: C

Antonio McDyess: The Pistons missed McDyess desperately during his league mandated 30-day wait to re-join the team after he was included in the Iverson deal. McDyess has lost considerable quickness since he signed with the Pistons in 2004, but he remains a reliable rebounder, post defender, and jump shooter. An underrated factor in the Pistons’ poor play this season is that McDyess is no longer starting and thus has had his minutes reduced. This may pay dividends in the playoffs if McDyess has fresher legs, but in the meantime the Pistons are a better team when McDyess is on the court. Grade: B+

Jason Maxiell: One of the worst consequences of small ball was that Maxiell was often squeezed out of the rotation. His minutes have been reduced, but his effectiveness has not wavered. When on the court, Maxiell changes games with his relentless rebounding and spectacular shot blocking ability. Maxiell is an undersized big, so he is a liability against certain post players. Otherwise, Maxiell is one of most productive Pistons and deserves at least 20 minutes per game to impact games. Grade: B

Arron Afflalo: With RIP Hamilton coming off the bench, Afflalo may struggle to see the court. When he does play, he has shown a vastly improved jump shot to pair with his already stellar defense. His poor playmaking abilities limit his effectiveness, but he is a valuable role player for the Pistons. His role should increase substantially next season, assuming that Iverson is not retained. Grade: B-

Kwame Brown: Brown played great defense against dominant post scorers including Shaquille O’Neal, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Tim Duncan. Otherwise, Brown has been completely useless. He is a disaster offensively who struggles to catch the ball, make free throws, or generally stay out of his own way. Brown is a serviceable fifth big man. Considering the ransom the Pistons paid for his services, it is safe to say they were hoping for more. Grade: C-

Will Bynum: Bynum has been a pleasant surprise for the Pistons. His role expanded when the Pistons traded Billups and moved Iverson to shooting guard, and Bynum has done an OK job at point guard. His jump shot is inconsistent and he is a liability defensively because of his size, but he has played well enough to earn a more permanent spot in the NBA. Grade: B+

Walter Herrmann: Herrmann was awesome the first week of the season, but has disappeared since. He excited fans with his three-point shooting and quirky forays to the basket, however his minutes were kept in check by an ability to stay in front of his man defensively. As his minutes waned, he lost his rhythm on his jump shot. He is now out of the rotation and probably on his way to a different organization by the start of next season. Grade: C-

Midseason Report Card (Part I)

2009-01-23T16:53:00.002-05:00

At 24-17 the Pistons have reached the mid-point of their season. That means it is time for midseason grades. Grades are based upon how well players have performed relative to expectations thus far in the 2008-2009 season. Today I’ll take a look at the starters. Check back this weekend to see grades for the reserves.

Starters

Rodney Stuckey: After a promising rookie season, there was hope that Stuckey would emerge as an elite backup for the Pistons. He struggled to find his rhythym during the first few weeks of the season, but he finished November strong and has not looked back. Stuckey earned a promotion to the starting lineup in December and he has risen to the challenge. The second year guard leads the Pistons in PER and has greatly improved his jump shot and his defense since his rookie season. Stuckey appears to be on the fast track to stardom. Grade: A-

Allen Iverson: Iverson came over in the much-discussed trade for Chauncey Billups. While it was clear that Iverson could not match Billups’ ability to defend or run an offense, the hope was that Iverson would be a superior scorer. So far, that has not materialized. Iverson is playing more minutes per game and taking more shots per game than Billups, but is averaging fewer points per game thanks to a huge disparity in true shooting percentage (59.1% for Billups, 51.0% for Iverson). Iverson has hit some huge shots (vs. OKC, at LAC) but also has missed his share of potentially game-altering shots (at POR, vs. CHA). Overall, Iverson has been a disappointment, but there is a chance he will begin to play better with the new lineup that should give him more opportunities to score. Grade: D+

Tayshaun Prince: When Prince was forced to play out of position at power forward, he struggled mightily. Thankfully, he has been returned to small forward. In the games that Prince has played small forward so far this season, he has been awesome. With Billups gone, Prince has emerged as the best player on the Pistons this season. Had he spent the entire season at small forward, there is a good chance he would be an all-star. He still has an outside chance to make the team if the East squad catches the injury bug. Grade: A-

Amir Johnson: Johnson’s minutes have yo-yoed up and down all season. Likewise, his production has been wildly inconsistent. He began the season as a starter and played fairly well as the starting line’s garbage man. Johnson was then moved to the bench in favor of Kwame Brown and his minutes and production both fell off – save for a strong three-game stretch to end November. Johnson was squeezed out of the rotation for much of December, but when an injury to RIP Hamilton allowed Johnson to re-enter the starting unit, he responded with two weeks of great defense, strong rebounding, and far too much fouling. Eventually the foul problems began to affect his performance. He is currently mired in an ineffective rut in which he has more fouls than points in January. Johnson recently returned to the starting lineup so it should be interesting to track his continued progress. Grade: B-

Rasheed Wallace: Wallace has played lethargic basketball for years, but he taken that to a new level this season. To say that Wallace appears to be going through the motions offensively would be generous. Occasionally he decides to saunter into the post, but more often he sets a screen or two and then drifts behind the three point line for the remainder of the possession. Wallace is an effective long-range shooter and he plays sturdy defense, but with a little intensity he could do so much more. Grade: B-

Disaster in Dallas

2009-01-21T23:31:00.001-05:00

The NBA team in the worst situation going forward may be none other than the Dallas Mavericks. The assertion may seem odd considering that the Mavs have won at least 51 games in each of the last eight seasons, including three seasons with at least 60 wins. The Mavericks are 24-18 this season and the cast of characters is mainly the same, so it may sound outrageous to compare them unfavorably to franchises like the Grizzlies and Clippers.

With that said, virtually every team in the league has a chance to make a playoff run this season, young talent, or impending flexibility to re-make the roster. The exception is the Mavericks. Dallas may approach 50 wins this year, but it is more likely than not to be the odd team out of the playoffs out West. There are nine good teams in the West this season and the Mavericks are the ninth best.

As far as the next couple of years are concerned, Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki are future hall of famers, but Kidd is a shadow of his former self and Nowitzki should start to decline soon, if he has not already. Josh Howard and Jason Terry are very good secondary players, but there is not enough around those two and Nowitzki to match up with the elite teams out West.

The team’s prospects going forward are even worse. Erick Dampier, Jason Terry, and Matt Carroll are all locked into preposterous long term contracts. The trio is owed a combined 28 million dollars in the 2011 season. Terry comes off the books that season, but Dampier and Carroll are on the hook for 15 million in 2012. Jerry Stackhouse also has a ridiculous contract; he’s set to make seven million this season and seven and a quarter million next year. As a result of those four contracts, the Mavericks have little ability to add to their core through trades or free agency any time in the near future.

That core may have maxed out its potential as a borderline playoff team with no chance of making serious noise in the playoffs. The trade of Devin Harris for Jason Kidd crippled the franchise. Harris has emerged as the best point guard in the Eastern conference this season, while Kidd has deteriorated into an average starter nearing the end of his career. This leads to the Maverick’s biggest problem.

The Mavericks have amassed less young talent than any team in recent memory. Among players younger than 28, only Brandon Bass belongs in an NBA rotation. Bass is an undersized big man in the mold of Jason Maxiell. After Bass, the team’s two most accomplished “prospects” are JJ Barea and Gerald Green. Both players have shown the ability to be competent offensively, but they are also poor defenders who project as no more than 8th or 9th men in a playoff rotation. Compounding the problem is the fact that Dallas will be drafting in the teens this year and traded away its 2010 first round pick to acquire Kidd.

To recap, the Mavericks are a borderline playoff team right now. They have little, if any, room for internal improvement. Their payroll is tied up with overpaid role players for at least the next three seasons unless the team moves Josh Howard of Dirk Nowitzki. If it does move either of the two, the Mavs would fade to mediocrity. The Mavericks will have a mid-first round pick this summer and have no first round pick after the 2010 season. Unless Mark Cuban can work a miracle, it is hard to imagine his Mavericks winning a playoff series any time in the next five seasons.

Position to Succeed

2009-01-18T19:40:00.002-05:00

I'm just focused on the 12 guys we have in uniform, trying to put them in a position to be successful out on the court and to win games.
–Michael Curry, via the Detroit Free Press

This a great point by Curry. It is a coach’s responsibility to put his players in a “position to be successful out on the court.” Is Curry practicing what he preaches? Which of the Pistons are in a better position with a small ball starting lineup of Stuckey, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace? Which would be better off if a traditional lineup of Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Johnson, and Wallace were to start games?

Rodney Stuckey: According to PER, Stuckey has been the Piston’s best offensive player this season. Among the Piston’s top-6 scorers, Stuckey is first in true shooting percentage. He is also the team’s best passer, so the more he has the ball in his hands, the better. Unfortunately, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace are all also scorers. When Stuckey plays alongside those four, he must focus on distributing instead of attacking. Stuckey averaged just 12.6 field goal attempts per game in the 12 games he started in a small ball lineup, compared to 15.4 shots a game when he started as part of a traditional lineup. Defensively, small ball hurts Stuckey. He is one of the better defensive point guards in the NBA, but alongside Iverson and Hamilton, he is often asked to defend shooting guards and small forwards. Stuckey has done well out of position defensively, but he is better-suited to defend point guards.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

RIP Hamilton: Defensively, this is no contest. Hamilton has no chance against many small forwards. Danny Granger and Kevin Durant, among others, have absolutely killed Hamilton. Hamilton is OK at defending shooting guards, but he has no chance against bigger forwards. Offensively, pairing Hamilton with Iverson is a simply a poor fit. Hamilton’s offense relies on ball movement, execution, and off-ball screens. Iverson is too small to set a pick and his game is predicated on dribbling and freelancing. Their games mix about as well as oil and water.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Tayshaun Prince: This is a full article where Prince explains that it is extremely grueling for him to deal with the physicality associated with playing power forward. Prince is not big enough to defend most opposing big men. Offensively, like Stuckey, Prince is one of the team’s best offensive players, but he is likewise the most likely to defer when he is on the court with four teammates who are also strong scorers. Prince has averaged 11.3 points per game when he starts at power forward and 16.0 points per game when he starts at small forward.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Rasheed Wallace: Wallace is much better defensively when he has a second big man on the floor. He is unable to defend the pick and roll the way he would like to when he does not have a second big man behind him to protect the paint and rebound. Offensively, Wallace spends most of the game spotting up for three-pointers regardless of who else is on the court.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Allen Iverson: Iverson is a low efficiency offensive player who is adept at creating shots, even though he has converted those shots at a low percentage this season. When he is taking shots away from Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace, he is hurting the Piston’s offense. When he plays alongside Afflalo, Maxiell, and McDyess, those players struggle to create their own shots and could benefit from the open looks Iverson can create. Defensively, Iverson will always be a disaster, but his impact might be less drastic if he is trying to defend backups.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Amir Johnson: Johnson is not much of an offensive player, but he is a strong defender and rebounder. In the starting lineup, the Pistons have enough offense that they could compensate for Johnson’s deficiencies in the same way that they played around Ben Wallace. Coming off the bench, it is hard to play Johnson alongside players like Afflalo and Maxiell, who also are best-suited to impact a game without the ball in their hands. Johnson also is excellent at attacking the offensive glass. Without Johnson, the Piston’s starting lineup is one of the worst offensive rebounding lineups in basketball.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Jason Maxiell/Kwame Brown: When the Pistons start Prince at power forward, it is difficult for Curry to find minutes for Maxiell and Brown. Both players have been racking up healthy DNPs lately. There would be minutes for at least one of the two in almost every game if the Pistons revert to a traditional lineup.

Edge: Traditional Lineup.

Antonio McDyess: Regardless of who starts, McDyess is usually on the court for 20-25 minutes per game and the Pistons rarely use a small ball lineup when McDyess is on the court.

Edge: Neutral

Arron Afflalo: Regardless of who starts, Afflalo usually does not enter the game until the Pistons have gone to a big lineup. Afflalo’s minutes may dip if the Pistons bring another shooting guard off the bench, but either way Afflalo should be part of a five man rotation for three spots on the perimeter, so there should be plenty of available minutes.

Edge: Small Ball

Will Bynum/Walter Herrmann/Alex Acker/Walter Sharpe: Regardless of who starts, none of these players has played well enough to earn regular minutes.

Edge: Neutral

Summary: The only Piston who even remotely benefits from small ball is Arron Afflalo. Even that is based on the possibility that his minutes would decrease if the Pistons revert to a traditional lineup. Of the ten Pistons in the rotation, eight would benefit if Michael Curry chooses a traditional lineup. If Curry meant what he said about putting his players in a position to succeed, he needs to start a traditional lineup.

Rebound Like A Champion

2009-01-18T10:25:00.006-05:00

Among the various problems with small ball is the complete inability of a small lineup to compete on the glass. While the Pistons typically only use a small ball lineup for a fraction of the games in which such a lineup starts, those few minutes are enough to put the team at a substantial disadvantage in the rebounding battle. This is bad news for the Pistons since each of the past 13 NBA Champions have been strong rebounding teams. The last team below average rebounding team to win the Championship was the 1995 Rockets, who tied for the 10th best regular season record before turning it on in the playoffs.

Here are the rebound rates for the top-three title contenders in 2009.

Here is a breakdown of the rebound rates for the Pistons in games they start a small ball lineup compared to games in which they start a traditionally-sized lineup.

*RR is rebound rate, the percentage of missed shots that a team rebounds. 50% is average.

Fastbreak Buckets 1.14.09

2009-01-14T17:30:00.003-05:00

-Amir Johnson can have a major impact on games when he is on the floor. If he plans to spend significant time on the court, he needs to learn how to avoid fouling. Johnson has been fouling at an obscene rate the last few weeks; he has at least four fouls in each of the 10 games since Christmas despite averaging just 21.1 minutes per game in that stretch. He has averaged one foul per 4.6 minutes of game time. The foul problems reached a new extreme this week when he committed ten fouls in 18 minutes during the last two games. Johnson’s production has also fallen off during the stretch, partly because early foul trouble has taken away from his aggressiveness.

Johnson needs to stop biting on pump fakes from potential jump shooters. Players like Tayshaun Prince and Tim Duncan have shown that one can play effective defense by closing out on shooters without jumping to block the shot. Johnson needs to take a page out of Duncan’s book and simply dare players to shoot over him. Johnson also has developed a bad habit of bumping players as they attempt to drive toward the basket. He needs to learn how to say in front of his man without making contact. Lastly, Johnson needs to do a better job of setting his feet on screens as to avoid the offensive foul and turnover associated with a moving screen.

-I have spent most of my recent posts discussing the starting lineup. Just to be clear on how many minutes I want each Piston playing, here is my ideal breakdown of minutes, by position. This breakdown only applies to close games when everyone is healthy.

PG: Stuckey: 36, Iverson: 12 (with Prince serving as point forward)
SG: Hamilton: 18, Iverson: 18, Afflalo: 12
SF: Prince: 34, Hamilton: 14
PF: Johnson: 20, Maxiell: 18, McDyess: 10
C: Wallace: 30, McDyess:14, Brown: 4

Total minutes per player: Stuckey: 36, Iverson: 30, Hamitlon: 32, Afflalo: 12, Prince: 34, Johnson: 20, Maxiell: 18, McDyess: 24, Wallace: 30, Brown: 4. Will Bynum and Walter Herrmann would play in garbage time or if other players are hurt, playing poorly, or in foul trouble.

-Many Piston fans have been begging for a RIP Hamilton trade lately. While the move would alleviate the glut at shooting guard this season, the long term ramifications would be negative. Iverson is a one year rental, so if the Pistons trade Hamilton, they would be looking for a shooting guard this summer. Before his injury, Hamilton played well alongside Stuckey. He and Stuckey should be the backcourt of the future in Detroit.

No Dice for Curry

2009-01-14T15:09:00.004-05:00

Michael Curry explained why he reverted to small ball:

"It's a simple matter of getting your best five guys out there as much as possible," Curry said.
– ESPN.com

If Curry really wants his “best five guys” to start the game, he should keep Antonio McDyess in mind. PER is hardly a perfect stat (for example, it overvalues Allen Iverson’s steals, which usually occur when he gambles instead of playing sound defense), but it does give a good indication of how productive a player is offensively and on the glass. So far this season, Iverson’s PER is 16.09, Hamilton is at 15.67, and McDyess is at 15.2. According to those stats, the players are relatively close in terms of offensive production.

Defense, however, is another story. McDyess is one of the better defenders on the team and protects the paint when he is in the game. Iverson and Hamilton are the two worst defenders in the Pistons rotation. Overall, McDyess has been a far more productive contributor for the Pistons than either Iverson or Hamilton.

If a team with Stuckey, Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, and Wallace played against Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, McDyess, and Wallace, the latter squad would win upwards of 70 percent of the games. If Curry chooses to hurt the team by playing small ball so be it, just try not to lie to the fans about the motivation (egos).

Site Move

2009-01-13T23:00:00.002-05:00

The site is moving... sort of. You can now access this blog by going to www.ctbaaf.com . That address will re-direct people to the site. Eventually I would like to abandon the blogspot address, but in the meantime both addresses will work.

Actions Speak Louder Than Words

2009-01-13T16:32:00.011-05:00

Michael Curry has said all the right things. Well, he had said all the right things until “Curry said he'll start his small lineup of Rodney Stuckey and Allen Iverson in the backcourt, and Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace in the frontcourt.” (Courtesy of Ted Kulfan, The Detroit News) Here’s a look back at some of Curry’s smarter, but not necessarily as honest, statements.

Curry: I think the toughest is when you’re making lineup changes, especially when guys are doing everything that you ask them to do but maybe for the team’s sake you need to adjust their role. I think that’s always the toughest, but if you’re honest then I don’t think you have as much of a problem. No matter what, at certain times players are not going to like decisions you make. When I was a player, I was the same way. But they respect it knowing that you’re honest and truthful with them and that you’re doing the things that are best for the team and the organization to be successful.
– Keith Langlois, Pistons.com, 6/12/08

"Defensively we have been good in stretches when we have two bigs on the floor," coach Michael Curry said. "One of the things we give up with our small lineup is that inside presence. Not having that other big on the floor, teams attack even more on the inside. When they attacked today, even when they got around Amir or 'Sheed, the other big was there to protect the basket."
– Chris McCosky, The Detroit News, 12/27/08

"The big lineup makes us better defensively and at the end of the day we have to make sure we are good enough defensively," he said. "We know we can go to that small lineup if we have to. We are able to play both, so we will decide it game by game. But the small group has to get better defensively. It has gotten better but it isn't on par with what we can do with the big lineup."
– Chris McCosky, The Detroit News, 12/30/08

"We've been putting emphasis on (defense)," coach Michael Curry said after the Pistons held a team under 80 points for the second time in three games Wednesday. "It's just there's certain things certain lineups can't do."
…
"Amir made some mistakes (against the Nets), but because of his size and ability to rebound, he's really solidified things for us," Curry said.
– Chris McCosky, The Detroit News, 1/2/09

"I wouldn't expect them [Iverson and Hamilton] to like coming off the bench," Curry said. "Both have been starters their whole career. But the reality is, we've got good guys on this team and they are all willing to do whatever it takes for the team to be successful. Whatever decisions we make, is because we feel its the best thing for us to be able to get the most of everybody on the team, regardless if a guy likes it or not.
"They are going to be OK because the No. 1 thing is, they want to win."
– Chris McCosky, The Detroit News, 1/12/09

"We've seen just from the data in our games that we know defensively ... it's no secret when we got two bigs and (Tayshaun Prince) at the three-spot we're our best defensively, and at the end of the day that's normally what's going to drive most of our decisions," Curry said.
– Vince Ellis, Detroit Free Press, 1/13/09

Curry Chooses Safe Path to Mediocrity

2009-01-13T13:06:00.007-05:00

Michael Curry was hired because he allegedly would have the respect of his players. The theory was that, as a former player, he would do a better job communicating with his players than Flip Saunders. Today, Curry showed he does not have the respect of his players or the communication skills to make a tough, but necessary, decision. It appears that Curry is merely a player's coach more interested in appeasing egos than winning games.

Curry said he'll start his small lineup of Rodney Stuckey and Allan Iverson in the backcourt, and Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace in the frontcourt. -- Ted Kulfan, The Detroit News

The Pistons are a more successful team when they play a traditional lineup. Small ball is not effective. Curry should have benched Allen Iverson. Curry needs to bite the bullet, ruffle some feathers and sit one of his all-star guards. Until he does so, expect the Pistons to be no better than an average NBA team.

Do the Right Thing: Bench Iverson

2009-01-12T22:24:00.010-05:00

Michael Curry is giving every indication that there is room for only one shooting guard in the starting lineup. When RIP Hamilton returns from injury, either he or Allen Iverson is likely headed to the bench. The two shooting guards have both made numerous all-star teams and neither seems too happy about the prospect of watching the first few minutes of action seated by the coaches.

The motivation for bringing one of the two off the bench is clear – defense – but there is another question that is not being asked. Even if Hamilton is taken out of the equation, does Allen Iverson really contribute to the starting lineup?

At this point in his career, Iverson has clear strengths and weaknesses on the court. Iverson is better than most at creating offense; he is 66th among 322 qualified players in “usage rate” – the percent of a team’s possessions that a player uses, based on shots, assists, and turnovers. He also excels at getting to the free throw line. The latter skill has been especially valuable for a Piston team that rarely gets to the stripe. While Iverson’s ability to create open shots and earn free throw attempts is important, it is difficult to determine another strong point of his game.

His weaknesses, however, are more prevalent. While Iverson takes a lot of shots – a team-leading 15.2 per game – he does not make nearly enough to justify his shot selection. Iverson has made 40.9% of his field goal attempts and has the worst adjusted field goal percentage among the 12 Pistons usually on the active roster.

Iverson averages 5.5 assists per game, but his 2.7 turnovers a night negate that production. Iverson is a great ball handler who rarely has the ball taken from him, but he forces passes and often leaves his feet to pass – two habits that lead to his high turnover rate. Iverson is unable to contribute as a point guard, despite his dribbling skills, due to poor decision making. He is incapable of being a team’s floor general and therefore is relegated to playing shooting guard.

Partially due to the fact that Iverson is a shooting guard in an undersized point guard’s body, he is a disaster defensively. Iverson is badly undersized against nearly all of his opponents and usually has to defend point guards while his own team’s point guard checks shooting guards. On plays where Iverson switches or rotates onto a bigger player down low, he is completely helpless. When Iverson is able to match up against a player his size, he gambles far too frequently and struggles to stay in front of his man. Opponents also have little trouble rising up and shooting right over the 5’11 Iverson.

Iverson is still capable of contributing to an NBA team. His ability to free himself for makeable shots can be valuable when he is on the floor with defense oriented teammates. Unfortunately for Iverson, the Pistons starting lineup includes Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace, three players capable of creating offense more efficiently than Iverson.

The Pistons bench, however, struggles to score at times. Arron Afflalo, Jason Maxiell, and Antonio McDyess are all capable shooters, but none of the three is proficient at creating open shots. Iverson would complement that group well.

At this stage of his career, Iverson’s game most resembles that of players like Louis Williams, Ben Gordon, Leandro Barbosa, and a younger Monta Ellis. All of those players are undersized shooting guards and poor defenders who have excelled as offensive weapons off the bench. Iverson was a superstar throughout the bulk of his career, but he is no longer capable of leading a successful team anywhere but the lottery. As a complementary piece, however, he could be valuable. Allen Iverson is probably going to start in the all-star game next month. He should cherish that start because his days starting NBA games could be and should be over.

Update: Detroit Bad Boys hit the nail on the head:

No one wants to admit it, but at this stage in his career, Allen Iverson is nothing more than T.J. Ford without a conscience. A useful player who has his moments, but not one who should be shoe-horned into the starting lineup at the expense of a player who actually fits the offense, has a track record of success in the system and will still be a member of the team next year. -- Matt Watson, DBB

Off the High Glass: Tayshaun Prince

2009-01-11T22:23:00.001-05:00

“Off the High Glass” is a segment on CTBAAF where I profile one of the Pistons. Today, Tayshaun Prince goes under the microscope.

Tayshaun Prince is tied with RIP Hamitlon as the longest-tenured Pistons. Prince is in his seventh season, which has been a lot like his sixth, which was a lot like his fifth, which was a lot like the two before that. For the fifth consecutive season, Prince has started every game, averaged roughly 14 points per game, posted a PER close to the league average, and played stellar defense. Prince was taken with the 23rd pick in 2002 draft. Nearly all of the teams that passed on Prince wish they could have a do-over. Among 2002 first round picks, only Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire, and Caron Butler have come close to matching Prince’s production.

Offense: Prince has one of the most diversified offensive arsenals in the NBA. Among his many strengths, he is effective running the offense, shooting three pointers, and scoring in the post. Prince has a high basketball IQ and is a proficient ball handler so the Pistons are able to use him as a point forward. This ability has been especially useful this season because Rodney Stuckey is the only reliable point guard on the roster.

However, Prince is best suited to man the wing as a forward. Prince is 6’9 and possesses exceptionally long arms which allow him to attack defenses in a variety of way. Thanks to his length and a high release point on his shot, Prince is able to shoot over almost any defender. This skill proves most useful at the end of the shot clock, when Prince is often asked to create a shot out of a busted possession. He excels at making contested jump shots as the shot clock expires.

Prince is also a valuable threat in the post. He prefers to get the ball on the right block, where he likes to dribble into the paint and take a lefty hook shot. If his defender overplays against this move, Prince will spin baseline and go to the basket. Prince is one of few players who can contribute both in the post and on the wing of a fast break attack. The Pistons have never been much of a running team, but when they do run, Prince likes to soar in for alley-oop dunks from the left side of the basket.

Prince has never averaged more than 15 points per game in a season. He is surely is capable of such a feat, but he tends to defer to his teammates and he is patient almost to a fault. When Prince catches the ball while open early in the shot clock, he often makes an exaggerated pump fake and then decides how to proceed. If his defender jumps at him, he often will absorb the contact, put up a shot, and head to the charity stripe. If the defender flies past him, Prince will either drive to the hoop, or take one dribble and rise up for a jumper. If the defender does not bite on the fake, Prince likes to back up and either set up a play or isolate against the defender. Prince would probably be best-served to simply shoot the ball a bit more frequently.

Defense: Prince is an excellent defender. He has been voted to the NBA’s 2nd All-Defense team each of the past four seasons. Again, Prince relies on his superior length and intelligence to succeed. As a result of his length, he is able to play a step behind his man while still being able to contest jump shots. Prince can guard four positions and has given fits to players like Kobe Bryant, Antawn Jamison, and Michael Redd. Just two games ago, he did a number on ex-Piston point guard Chauncey Billups down the stretch of a close Piston victory.

Despite a wiry frame, Prince is rarely outmuscled. Opponents who have had success against Prince have often had him try to guard the pick and roll. Prince does a fine job defending the play, but guarding players like LeBron James on the pick and roll without proper help is nearly impossible.

One of the best aspects of Prince’s game is that he rarely bites on pump fakes. Over the last four seasons, he has never averaged more than 1.4 fouls per game despite playing heavy minutes and usually guarding the opponent’s best scorer. Prince does not often gamble for steals, but almost always stays between his man and the basket. He does not block many shots, but the blocks he does make are often spectacular. Prince is one of the best ever at coming from behind a player to block a fast break layup or dunk. He usually times his jumps perfectly and his infamous 2004 block on Reggie Miller set the gold standard for this type of play.

Prince grabbed between 4.2 and 5.3 rebounds per game each of the past five seasons. This season, he has dramatically increased his board work. He is averaging 7.2 rebounds per game. Prince has been more committed to the glass partially because he has been asked to play power forward, but he has also rebounded better while playing small forward.

Overall: Michael Curry has been campaigning for Prince to make the all-star team for the first time in his career. However, LeBron James, Paul Pierce, Caron Butler and Danny Granger all play small forward in the East, so Curry’s mission is probably a lost cause. Prince did have his play recognized when he was named to the gold medal-winning Olympic Basketball team.

Prince does not wow with any one skill, but he is the complete package. He is cerebral on the court and was named team captain because of his poise and leadership. LeBron James is clearly the best small forward – and overall player – in basketball, but Prince is in the next tier in terms of elite small forwards. Since the trade of Billups, Prince has emerged as the Piston’s best player. He is only 28 and under contract through 2011 so expect Prince to continue to be the Piston’s do-everything small forward for several years to come.

Fastbreak Buckets 1.10.09

2009-01-10T17:47:00.002-05:00

-Determining a starting lineup going forward could prove to be a huge challenge for Michael Curry. RIP Hamilton told The Detroit News that he has no interest in adapting to a bench role. Allen Iverson still believes that he is a star and it remains to be seen if he would be willing to be a sixth man for the first time in his career. Rodney Stuckey is clearly the team’s best point guard and Tayshaun Prince belongs at small forward, so it is in the Pistons’ best interest that either Hamilton or Iverson come off the bench. Hopefully, one of the two will relent and embrace a bench role. Until then, there will be some uncomfortable moments for the Pistons.

-The last two games have been almost exactly mirror images of each other for the Pistons. Against Portland, Detroit led by as much as thirteen, allowed Portland to drill away at the lead throughout the second half, and then watched the game slip away after Travis Outlaw made a very difficult jumper. In Denver, Detroit trailed by as much as fourteen, drilled away at the lead throughout the second half, and then stole the game after Tayshaun Prince hit a tough jumper.

-Before the 2008 season, Jason Maxiell worked on improving his free throw shooting. The extra practice time showed up on the stat sheet. Maxiell – who missed more than half of his free throw attempts during his first two seasons – converted on 63.3% of his free throws last season. This season, Maxiell seems to have reverted to his old ways. He has made just 53.2% of this season’s attempts and has had a number of embarrassing misses. Maxiell has played fewer minutes this season than he did a season ago. If he can start making upwards of 60% of his free throws again, those minutes might start to creep back up.

-Antonio McDyess was booed throughout last night’s game in Denver. The jeers served as a reminder of how lucky the Pistons are that he returned. McDyess has been invaluable this season. He is a complete player who helps the Pistons in so many ways. It is no coincidence that one of the Pistons’ worst four week stretches of the past five years coincided with the time Dice missed.

Earning His Chair

2009-01-08T23:05:00.015-05:00

Michael Curry took a lot of heat when the Pistons were struggling midway through December. Detroit fans had come to expect consistent excellence out of their Pistons. When the Pistons failed to deliver in the first six weeks of the season, blamed was assigned to Curry – a new variable in the equation. Now that the Pistons have won seven of their last eight games, Curry deserves his share of the credit. Curry has made a number of moves that have worked in the Pistons favor. He has altered the starting lineup, accommodated for injuries, and removed unproductive players from the rotation.

Curry decided one month ago that Rodney Stuckey needed to start and handle the point guard duties full time. The move has proven ingenious. Stuckey has played so well that he is being mentioned with Rajon Rondo and Devin Harris with regards to the best young point guards in the East. The move has also had a positive impact on the team’s two shooting guards. Allen Iverson has been allowed to play off the ball, where he is able to play his game without worrying about quarterbacking the offense. RIP Hamilton has also benefited from playing alongside a true point guard, who can get him the ball when and where he needs it.

The drawback with starting Stuckey was that he replaced Kwame Brown in the starting lineup, thus forcing the Pistons to play a badly undersized lineup. An injury to RIP Hamilton allowed the Pistons to revert to a traditional lineup, and the early returns are positive. The Pistons are 5-1 – despite a flurry of injuries – since reverting to a traditional lineup. Curry has hinted that he will stick with the bigger lineup even after Hamilton returns.

An early criticism of Curry was that he played too many players. Early in the season, 10 or 11 Pistons would often see important minutes in a given game. Curry appears to have weeded out a few of his less productive players and settled on a more stable nine man rotation. Will Bynum has not played much of late and Walter Hermann has only seen spot minutes. There is a chance that Kwame Brown will also be squeezed out of the regular rotation when Wallace returns from injury.

When Curry was named head coach, he assured the world that the team’s level of intensity would no longer waver. In the past, the Pistons were criticized for “flipping a switch,” or exerting maximum effort only occasionally. This season, the problem seems to have disappeared. Rasheed Wallace remains lackadaisical on the offensive end, but it is hard to imagine that any coach other than Larry Brown could get through to Sheed. The rest of the Pistons have played hard every game this season. Part of the reason for this is that Curry has kept to his mandate that the players who play best will play in crunch time.

Another Curry promise was that he would help develop the team’s young players. Stuckey is playing his way into Most Improved Player discussions. Arron Afflalo is still not much of a scorer, but he has increased his shooting accuracy and become a lockdown defender that helps the Pistons in a variety of ways. Amir Johnson has developed into a great defensive player under Curry and may have finally locked up a permanent spot in the rotation. Jason Maxiell has taken a slight step back, but he remains a valuable contributor for the Pistons.

As long as Curry sticks with a big, traditional lineup, he has the Pistons headed in the right direction. He is developing the young players, invoking intensity from his team, and winning games. Curry also has the respect of his players – there been minimal, if any, public criticism of Curry from the players. He will face his biggest challenge yet when Hamilton is ready to return. So far, Curry has done an admirable job with the roster. If he chooses the correct starting lineup while keeping all of his players content and on the same page, he will have truly earned his promotion to head coach.

Update (1.13.09): Curry undid much of his progress with one misguided maneuver today. He announced that he will return to a small ball lineup and that Will Bynum will again be a significant part of the rotation.

Learning in Victory (Part II)

2009-01-05T23:19:00.007-05:00

-Tayshaun Prince belongs at small forward. Prince has started 24 games this season at small forward and eight at power forward. In the games Prince started at small forward, he averaged 15.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.1 turnovers while shooting 46.1% from the field, including 41.5% on 1.7 three-point attempts per game. When starting at power forward, he averaged 10.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2.1 turnovers while shooting 39.8%. When he started at power forward, he did not make a single three pointer and he took fewer than half as many free throw attempts per game. Prince is also much more effective defending small forwards than power forwards.

Prince plays power forward when the Pistons go to small ball, usually because Curry wants his three scoring guards – Stuckey, Iverson, and Hamilton – on the court together. When this happens, Prince becomes an afterthought on offense as the guards look for shots. Prince and Stuckey are the two best Pistons, so it is important that Prince is put in position to succeed. That means he should be a focal point of the offense and that he needs to play almost exclusively at small forward.

-Stuckey tracker: Stuckey has continued his assault on the league and his recent point totals have been awesome. The Pistons are now 13-3 in games that Stuckey starts. The team is 7-0 when Stuckey plays at least 37 minutes. He has averaged 17.8 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.8 rebounds on better than 50% field goal shooting as a starter.

-Kwame Brown belongs in the Elden Campbell/Dale Davis memorial “backup big man who can defend great low post scorers, but is otherwise useless.” When Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess both return to full strength, Brown should return to the bench. He does a great job defending opposing big men, but he is a liability offensively. The Pistons should play Brown when they face players like Andrew Bynum, Shaq, Al Jefferson, and Tim Duncan. Otherwise, he should be the odd man out in a four man frontcourt rotation featuring Wallace, McDyess, Johnson, and Maxiell.

-Jason Maxiell could be really good, if he were only taller. He tipped or just missed numerous rebounds and passes the past few games. Maxiell is a productive role player, but his lack of height hinders him. His inability to defend the taller Garnett killed the Pistons in last season’s playoffs. Maxiell is mediocre defensive rebounder – as opposed to a great one— because he is undersized compared to other power forwards. If Maxiell was 6’9, he would be one of the best power forwards in basketball. Instead, he is merely a very good backup.

Learning in Victory (Part I)

2009-01-04T22:35:00.006-05:00

The Pistons have been hit by the injury bug. RIP Hamilton sat out the fourth quarter against Oklahoma City and missed the subsequent five games. Rasheed Wallace has been out for the past two and a half games. Antonio McDyess sat out two games and then played through two injuries against the Clippers. Thanks in large part to a soft schedule, the Pistons have won seven straight despite the depleted roster. With several prominent players out of the rotation, many players have had an opportunity to take on additional responsibilities. As a result, Michael Curry should have learned a few things about his team.

-Even a banged up Piston squad is good enough to beat the NBA’s doormats. While a seven-game win streak is impressive regardless of the opponents, the Pistons owe the schedule-makers a belated Christmas gift. During the winning streak, Detroit played one very good team – Orlando – and faced a hot Milwaukee on the road. The other five games were against teams that range from sub-par to pitiful. Five of the seven games were home games for the Pistons.

-Amir Johnson belongs on the court and Curry knows it. After the win against the Clippers, Curry said that he told Johnson that he no longer wants him on the court; he needs him on the court. As evidence, Curry pointed out that in the first half, when Johnson barely played due to foul trouble, the Clippers made over 50% of their field goals and scored 52 points. In the second half, when Johnson was on the court most of the time, the Clippers made less than 30% of their shots and were limited to 33 points.

Johnson saw little game action in the first seven games after the return of McDyess. In the eighth, against Oklahoma City, Johnson entered the game with the Pistons trailing by one late in the third quarter. He sparked a Pistons surge in that game and has seen significant minutes in each of the five subsequent games. Not coincidentally, the Pistons have won all six. Johnson is averaging 6.4 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game on 62.5% shooting in the last five games, but his contribution goes beyond the box score. Johnson has done a great job protecting the paint and defending the pick and roll. The Pistons have outscored their opponents by 27 points with Johnson on the court over the last six games.

Johnson struggles to create his own shot and, according to Curry, often makes mental mistakes on the floor; however, he does so many positive things defensively and on the glass that he warrants heavy minutes. Johnson’s unique combination of size and athleticism allows him to positively influence games despite his limitations.

Check back for Part II of what the Pistons can learn from their winning streak.

Comparing the Lineups

2009-01-01T10:34:00.006-05:00

The Pistons various starting lineups this season can be broken down into three categories:

Small ball (PG, SG, SG, SF, PF: Stuckey, Iverson, RIP, Tayshaun, Sheed). When the Pistons start a small ball lineup, they are 5-3.
No true point guard (SG, SG, SF, PF, C: Iverson, RIP, Tayshaun, Sheed, Amir/Kwame). When the Pistons start the game without a true point guard, they are 7-8.
Traditional lineup (PG, SG, SF, PF, C: Billups/Stuckey, RIP/Iverson, Tayshaun, Sheed, Amir). When the Pistons start a traditional lineup, they are 7-0.

Obviously these are relatively small sample sizes and a number of other factors, especially strength of schedule, are at work. Nevertheless, the Pistons have clearly played their best basketball when a traditional lineup starts the game. The Pistons will not win every game that they deploy a traditional lineup, but they will definitely win quite a few.

A Hall of Fame Backup?

2008-12-30T21:37:00.007-05:00

The end of small ball seems imminent. The Pistons have played their best basketball in weeks during their past two games, in large part because an injury to RIP Hamilton forced the team to use a traditional lineup.

Michael Curry has noticed that the Pistons play significantly better defense with two big men on the floor. After yesterday’s game, Curry talked about how much better Rasheed Wallace plays when he has a second big man on the floor. Tayshaun Prince believes that both he and RIP Hamilton have suffered unnecessary wear and tear when they have to defend bigger players. It is obvious to coaches, players, and fans that the Pistons play their best defense with bigger lineups on the court. Curry hinted that a return to a more traditional lineup may be on the way. It appears that Amir Johnson will get the nod at power forward. Rodney Stuckey, Tayshaun Prince, and Wallace all have secure spots in the starting lineup. The question is which of the Pistons’ all star shooting guards will be sent to the bench.

In a vacuum, the answer would probably be Hamilton. Allen Iverson is better at creating his own shot and is a future hall of famer still capable of huge scoring nights. However, when other factors are taken into consideration, it makes sense to start Hamilton.

The Pistons have plenty of scoring with their starting unit regardless of who starts at off guard. Stuckey, Prince, and Wallace are all quality offensive players who need the ball to be as effective as possible. Iverson’s game is predicated on dominating the ball and attacking defenses on his own. That style of play does not mesh well with players like Stuckey and Prince, but would be perfect alongside backups like Arron Afflalo, Jason Maxiell, and Antonio McDyess. Those three players can make open jumpers, but struggle to create their own offense.

Hamilton, on the other hand, is quickly developing chemistry with Stuckey. Hamilton averages almost four more points per game in games that Stuckey starts at point guard. RIP gets most of his shots within the flow of the offense and has succeeded alongside Prince and Wallace for years. Stuckey and Johnson would essentially fill the roles once held by Chauncey Billups and Ben Wallace so the starting unit’s offense should be fairly similar to what the Pistons had earlier in the decade.

Defensively, if the Pistons were to start Stuckey and Iverson, they would be at a size mismatch at both guard positions. Iverson is undersized against almost anyone, while Stuckey would be playing out of position if asked to guard shooting guards. With Hamilton on the court alongside Stuckey, that problem would be solved.

When the Pistons replaced Amir Johnson with Kwame Brown in the starting lineup, part of Michael Curry’s motivation was the need to get bigger after they downsized from Billups to Iverson. If the Pistons go back to Johnson, it would only make sense to compensate by starting a big backcourt in Stuckey and Hamilton.

Another consideration is the future of this franchise. Iverson is probably a one year rental for the Pistons. Hamilton recently signed a contract extension and will be a big part of the team’s future assuming that he is not traded. If the Pistons falter in this season’s playoffs, whichever all start is coming off the bench will probably be an unhappy camper. Star players usually only accept lesser roles when a team is winning (see Owens, Terrell). A peeved Iverson can look for a new team next summer, but an alienated Hamilton is a problem the Pistons should try to avoid.

It is not quite a done deal that the Pistons will revert to a more traditional lineup, but the evidence is promising. Sending the team’s only surefire future Hall of Famer to the bench is best way for the Pistons to regain their status as contenders in the East.

RIP Assists from the Trainer’s Room

2008-12-28T17:07:00.005-05:00

The Pistons may have caught the best injury break of the season yesterday. A groin injury forced RIP Hamilton out of the lineup and allowed Amir Johnson to start in his place. While Hamilton’s injury is not considered serious, the ramifications could have a huge positive impact on the Piston’s season.

In yesterday’s post, I argued that reverting to a more traditional lineup would be beneficial for the Pistons. The case for a more traditional lineup centered on the improved rebounding and defense that a bigger lineup would provide.

In the eight games that the Pistons played small ball, they were outrebounded by an average of 5.6 rebounds per game. Last night, with Johnson starting, the Pistons won the board war by nine. The Pistons also played one of their best defensive games of the season, allowing the Bucks to score just 76 points on 30.4% shooting.

Milwaukee has a solid team and the Bucks were favored in last night’s contest. Thanks in large part to Johnson, the Pistons had a victory locked up by the end of the third quarter. Johnson had 11 rebounds – including 5 on the offensive end – and blocked four shots on the night.

Based on the way that Johnson has played in the last two games, Michael Curry has no choice but to drastically increase Johnson’s minutes. If Hamilton’s injury forced Curry to realize the value of a player like Amir Johnson, it may very well have been a blessing in disguise.

Small Ball Leads to Bad Basketball

2008-12-27T13:40:00.005-05:00

Eight games ago, the Pistons brought Antonio McDyess back onto the roster. McDyess essentially replaced Kwame Brown in the rotation and has provided a huge upgrade. Despite the improvement of the team’s second big man, the Pistons have not played any better in the last eight games than they did earlier in the season. The Pistons are 5-3 in that stretch, but only one win was by more than six points and the team played an extremely soft schedule.

There are other reasons the Pistons should have played well during that stretch. The team is more than a month into the alleged transition to life with Allen Iverson. Also, Rodney Stuckey has played the best basketball of his career recently. Despite all of the factors working in the Pistons’ favor, the team has continued to play mediocre basketball.

The culprit is a simple one: small ball. On the same day that McDyess returned to the team, Michael Curry altered the starting lineup to include Rodney Stuckey in place of a big man. While Stuckey has excelled as a starter, the team has struggled overall. The small ball arrangement has caused numerous problems for the Pistons, almost all of which could be fixed by reverting to a traditional lineup.

The biggest challenge facing the Pistons is rebounding. The Pistons have been outrebounded in every single game that they have used the small ball lineup. They have been outrebounded by an average of 5.6 rebounds per game during the eight-game stretch. Tayshaun Prince has done his part, grabbing 8.6 boards a game since moving to power forward. The problems arise with the rest of the frontcourt. RIP Hamilton has grabbed three rebounds per game over the last eight games. That production was fine when he played shooting guard, but will not cut it at forward. Rasheed Wallace inexplicably stopped rebounding after Thanksgiving. He averaged 9.5 rebounds per game in the team’s first 13 games, but has pulled down just 5.4 boards per game in the 14 game since the holiday.

The Pistons were a fairly average rebounding team before the switch to small ball. Extrapolated over a full season, their rebounding performance over the past eight games would place them amongst the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. The switch to small ball transformed the Pistons from a decent rebounding team into a horrible one.

Another mess created by small ball has occurred on the defensive end. With the current starting lineup, the Pistons face size mismatches at various positions against virtually every team in the league. Prince is not big enough to guard most power forwards. Against Utah, Prince was abused in the post by Mehmet Okur. Hamilton faces similar problems when the team plays bigger small forwards such as Danny Granger, who dropped 42 points against Detroit. The Pistons have enough defensive issues when Iverson tries to guard anyone. The last thing Michael Curry needed to do was compound the problem by playing three starters out of position.

The other major dilemma posed by small ball is the distribution of minutes. The Pistons cannot start Prince at power forward if they hope to play Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson significant minutes. Maxiell and Johnson are the team’s only talented young big men. Both are quality NBA players now and are a major part of the team’s future. Curry is doing a major disservice to the franchise if he squeezes either of those players out of the rotation.

Johnson did not play in six of the first seven games of the small ball era. Last night, he checked into the game late in the third quarter last night, with the Pistons trailing by one. Johnson immediately started contesting shots and crashing the boards. His energy helped trigger a 24-9 run. Iverson was exceptional during the stretch and was able to be aggressive because he played alongside Johnson and Afflalo, players who defend, hustle, and do not need the ball to contribute. Curry left the lineup in the game even after it appeared to run out of gas and the results were not pretty. However, it was obvious from that sequence that Amir Johnson needs to play and that his game complements Iverson’s.

In a way, Michael Curry’s hand has been forced by the make-up of his roster. With Iverson, Hamilton, and Prince, the Pistons have three all-star talents for two positions on the wing. It is the coach’s responsibility to determine which of those players is best-suited for a bench role and then convince that player that an individual sacrifice will benefit the team. Ideally, the Pistons should bench Iverson in favor Johnson or Maxiell.

The Pistons are drifting through the regular season. They play well some nights, but poorly on far too many. Most NBA teams would love to have the talent that the Pistons boast. Those other teams would probably be wise enough to deploy that talent correctly.

Fastbreak Buckets 12.24.08

2008-12-24T12:52:00.006-05:00

-Two of the biggest differences between Flip Saunders and Michael Curry were supposed to be that Curry would play young players and Curry would stop his players from complaining to the officials. Two months into the Curry era, the results have been hit and miss, with more misses than hits.

Young guards Rodney Stuckey and Arron Afflalo have been given plenty of minutes. Stuckey’s development has been the biggest success of Curry’s coaching career thus far. On the other hand, young bigs Jason Maxiell and especially Amir Johnson are not playing nearly enough. Johnson is racking up healthy DNPs despite posting an impressive PER and the best net +/- numbers of any Piston other than Rasheed Wallace.

Also, to date, Curry has failed in his attempt to stem the complaining to officials. Wallace and RIP Hamilton are picking up technicals at a manic rate. The Pistons are fifth in the NBA in technical fouls.

-The first step toward fixing a problem is realizing that one exists. Coach Curry appears to be headed in the right direction with both of the aforementioned issues. He told The Detroit News that he plans to pull Allen Iverson and Tayshaun Prince midway through the first quarter in favor of a bigger lineup. He then plans to re-insert Iverson and Prince as part of a bigger lineup to start the second quarter. The moves should allow Maxiell and Johnson to see minutes at power forward while Will Bynum would effectively be eliminated from the rotation. These move makes sense. In the same article, there is talk that the Pistons are trying to cut back on technical fouls.

-Stuckey tracker: In the 13 games since Thanksgiving, Stuckey is averaging 15.5 points, 7.0 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 2.0 turnovers per game. He has made 55.6% of his field goal attempts and nine three pointers for an effective field goal percentage of 58.7%. His PER is at 19.2 on the season and is surely in the mid 20s since Thanksgiving. The man can flat out ball.

Fastbreak Buckets: 12.19.09

2008-12-19T18:56:00.005-05:00

-Stuckey tracker: In the ten games since Thanksgiving, Stuckey is averaging 13.4 points, 7.9 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 2.1 turnovers per game. He is shooting 53% from the floor, and has made half of his 14 three point attempts. Stuckey has also played very solid defense for the Pistons. While he will probably never be an elite defender, he is an above average defensive point guard and still has room to improve.

One clear benefit of the Iverson trade was that it opened up the point guard role for Stuckey. In theory, this should expedite his development as he should get a full season’s worth of on the job training. On the flip side of that coin, Stuckey no longer has Billups as a tutor and the trade has resulted in a rotation that will squeeze Amir Johnson’s minutes.

There was a stretch during November where Stuckey was often the worst player on the court. He was pressing at times and appeared hesitant at others. He had a miserable time trying to stay in front of Devin Harris against New Jersey and then was set back by a pair of medical problems. He suffered a dizzy spell during a game against Boston and took a hard fall after a collision with Shaq in Phoenix. It is impossible to know how much of his struggles can be traced to those two instances, but there is a good chance they contributed.

For whatever reason, Stuckey turned a corner in his development three weeks ago and has not looked back yet. As a result of his recent strong play, Stuckey’s PER is up to 17.34, a hugely impressive number for a 22 year old who fell to the middle of the first round in 2007. Stuckey is not a star yet, but he appears to be well on his way.

-Pistons fans should not get any crazy ideas a result of the team’s three game win streak. The Pistons squeaked past a mediocre Indiana team at home, barely held on against a bad Charlotte team, and then beat a horrible Washington team at the Palace. None of the three victories were particularly impressive, although there were encouraging signs. Stuckey and Iverson both had their best weeks of the season, while RIP Hamilton played some of his better basketball since the trade. Antonio McDyess also played well and showed no ill effects from his five week hiatus. This weekend’s games against Utah and Atlanta should be a much better indicator of this team’s ability.

-In the four games since the Pistons switched to a small ball lineup, they have been outrebounded by an average of 7.8 rebounds per game. Poor rebounding is a recipe for disaster in the playoffs and the Pistons must find a way to correct this problem if they hope to advance in this season’s playoffs. Amir Johsnon leads the team in rebound rate* and last season finished behind only Nazr Mohammed, who is no longer on the roster. Johnson also finished with the team lead in 2007. He has not played in the last four games.

(*Rebound rate is the percentage of missed shots a player rebounds while on the court)

Allen Iverson: Better Off the Ball

2008-12-18T20:55:00.008-05:00

Allen Iverson put together his best stretch of the season this past week. The move from point guard to shooting guard has been a big reason for his success. Despite impressive assist numbers, Iverson does not belong at point guard. True point guards – such as Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul, and Steve Nash – excel at controlling the pace of the game, feeding a hot hand, and keeping their teammates involved in the offense. Those players consistently make good decisions on the court and possess the leadership skills necessary to lead a team.

For all of his gifts, Iverson has never shown the ability manage games. Iverson excels at making plays for others with his ability to break down defenses; however he thinks like a playmaker instead of a distributor.

Rodney Stuckey, on the other hand, has shown excellent game awareness since being inserted into the starting lineup. Stuckey has opened games by getting his teammates involved. Later in the game, when Stuckey’s teammates have found a rhythm, Stuckey begins to assert himself. He is averaging ten assists per game since he was named a starter. The Pistons’ point guard duties should be in good hands with Stuckey for the rest of this decade and most of the next one.

With Stuckey running the show, Iverson has been brilliant offensively. In the four games since Stuckey became a starter, Iverson is averaging 19.5 points and 5.5 assists per game with a 58.3% effective field goal percentage*. Iverson has been liberated from the burden of playing point guard and the early returns are positive.

*Effective field goal percentage is determined by (FG+0.5*3P)/FGA. It is a measure of field goal percentage that accounts for the additional point that results from a made three pointer.

Dice On A Roll

2008-12-18T20:13:00.004-05:00

The Pistons dodged a major bullet when Antonio McDyess elected to return to Detroit. McDyess claims that he understands the Pistons’ motivation for the trade and is not upset with Dumars, but Dice had to be slightly perturbed that the team considered him somewhat expendable. Dumars could not have been certain that McDyess would turn down teams like Boston and Cleveland that offered him more dollars and a better shot at a title. Dumars should be thankful he did.

While the Pistons surely have missed Billups since the trade, they missed McDyess nearly as much. During the 17 games the Pistons played without McDyess, he was essentially replaced in the rotation by Kwame Brown. The drop-off in production was drastic. Dice is superior to Brown in virtually every aspect of the game. He is a far better shooter and pick and roll defender. Dice also holds an edge over Brown in terms of rebounding, shot blocking, and finishing plays around the basket. The one area where Brown may have an edge is defending the league’s behemoths, but players like Shaq and Andrew Bynum are few and far between. Brown will likely be called up again when the Pistons face a team with a dominant post scorer. Until then, he should be rooted to the bench where he can try to learn a thing or two from watching McDyess.

Since returning to the team, Dice is averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game while playing just over 23 minutes per night. He has made better than 59% of his field goal attempts and has made all five of his free throws. McDyess is a stabilizing force on the court and has been a reliable interior defender during his five seasons in Detroit. He is also the best rebounder in the Pistons rotation – Amir Johnson is the team’s best rebounder, but he has not seen the floor since McDyess’s return.

McDyess is not starting games this season – instead he is finishing them. McDyess has been on the court for the majority of the fourth quarter in each game since his return. It is nearly impossible to play sturdy defense with a small ball lineup and rebounding has also been a major issue for the small ball Pistons. Thanks to the return of McDyess, the Pistons no longer have those problems down the stretch. The Pistons crunch time front court includes McDyess, Rasheed Wallace, and Tayshaun Prince – all players who defend and rebound well at their positions. The combination is a big reason that the Pistons have been able to close out their last three opponents. If the Pistons are able to win 50 games for an eighth consecutive season, McDyess’s decision to return will be a big reason why.